STAT 98/198: Intro to Sports Statistics University of California, Berkeley

Spring 2016

Facilitators: Lisa Sinow, Jason Spector, Kent Chen Email: sportsstatsdecal@gmail.com

Course website: decal.org/courses/sportsstats

Faculty Sponsor: Shobhana Stoyanov Every sports fan has something in common: they have a deep passion for their respective sport and also have a desire to understand the performance their favorite team or players. With the big data revolution such as the “moneyball” movement sweeping across professional sports and the explosion of fantasy sports, it is even more important to understand how to read the numbers as the average sports fan may want to optimize his or her lineup or understand the team’s decision in player transactions. In this decade, sports statistics go beyond the traditional box score as there as statistics such as Player Efficiency Rating (PER), Wins Above Replacement (WAR), +/- that are becoming mainstream. This interactive, discussion-based course is an introduction to sports statistics, touching upon basic baseball, basketball, and football analytics. We will discuss the game of baseball, basketball, and football via searching for objective knowledge in performance of each respective sports. Other areas of sabermetrics will be analyzed and better understood with current and historical data for each respective sport to give you the tools you need to be able to analyze sports statistics on a higher level. By the end of this course, we hope you have gained an understanding of sports statistics and can relate them to some aspect of your life. Class time: Tuesdays, 5-7 pm at 210 Wheeler Prerequisites: None, other than having an interest in learning about sports and their statistics. Knowing the basic rules and vocabularies of the games is helpful but not required. Grade Breakdown: 30% Attendance 20% Unit Reflection Paper 20% Readings 30% Project - groups of 2-3, 5-10 minute presentations Attendance: Missing more than three classes will result in a failing grade. If you know you will be missing class ahead of time, please send us an email. Unit Reflection Paper:

Unit reflection papers will be due the week following the completion of each unit. Write 1.5-2 pages reflecting upon what you learned from the unit and how you will apply it (to watching a particular sport, other aspects of life) Readings: One article and summary required per week. We will post suggested articles but readings/summaries are not limited to the articles we post. Project: "What I would do if I were the General Manager of ______" Using the information covered in class and any other resources you can find, propose a realistic off-season/mid-season plan for a team of your choice. It can be any sport, not just the ones covered. The budget and information on prospects will be provided. The presentation groups should be 2-3 people and the presentations will be 5-10 minutes long. Week One (1/19 - 1/22): DeCal Expo, advertise for the class Week Two (1/25 - 1/29): Introduction to the course Week Three (2/1 - 2/5): Football Introduction to Football Player values - most important, monetary value

The single player who matters the most, the quarterback Most important stat in football, sacks vs Passer Rating How much is a player worth? Comparing players The passing offense, why teams are going to the air

Week Four (2/8 - 2/12): Football Big data in Football

Big data in football https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-big-data-transforming-football-nfl-bernard-marr?trk=hp-feed-article-title-channel-add

Fantasy football The perfect team, fantasy football

Week Five (2/15 - 2/19): Basketball Introduction to Basketball History of statistics breaking down a scorecard

Understanding the stat sheet. What it all means! +/- what is it? The most important stat, points, how to win games with offensive efficiency

Fast paced vs. slow paced style, which is better? Week Six (2/22 - 2/26): Basketball Game Strategies: game pace, rebounds, long shots vs inside post

The three vs the inside post, why teams are shooting the three more Cover the glass, why rebounds matter Playoff Dwight Howard, does he become superman during the playoffs

Week Seven (2/29 - 3/4): Basketball Case study player analysis

Projecting NBA Careers CARMELO http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-were-predicting-nba-player-career/

WAR (Wins above replacement) http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-53-best-franchise-players-in-the-nba

Do stats tell it all, Kobe vs. Lebron vs. Michael Jordan Week Eight (3/7 - 3/11): Baseball Introduction to Baseball Sabermetrics History Definition of Sabermetrics Basic Hitting Metrics Week Nine (3/14 - 3/18): Baseball Hitting analytics Runs to Wins Different Run Scoring Environments Run Estimators Assign Final Project Spring Break (3/21-3/25): No Class Week Ten (3/28 - 4/1): Baseball Fielding Analytics

Problem with Fielding Metrics What is wrong with errors? Errors over time What is wrong with Fielding %? Derek Jeter and Ozzie Smith comparison (very interesting!) Range factor, RF/9 Beyond Box Score Data Batted Ball Tracking Metrics

http://sabr.org/research/measuring-defense-entering-zones-fielding-statistics

http://207.56.97.150/articles/defeval.htm Week Eleven (4/4 - 4/8): Baseball Pitching Analytics Wins/Losses (Problems with W/L)

Bullpens ERA Problems Skill Metrics Game Metrics Pitching Runs

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878 http://207.56.97.150/articles/ipavg2.htm FIP and XFIP http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2015&month=30&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d

Week Twelve (4/11 - 4/15): Baseball Wins Above Replacement Offense Baserunning Pitching

Fielding http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/def/ http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/positional-adjustment/

Replacement Level http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/replacement-level/

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/war-position-players/ http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/ http://grantland.com/the-triangle/adam-dunn-juan-pierre-why-we-need-wins-above-replacement-stat/ http://joeposnanski.com/explaining-cabrera-trout-and-war/

Week Thirteen (4/18 - 4/22): Presentations Week Fourteen (4/25 - 4/29): Presentations Week Fifteen: RRR Week, no class