PRE-ELECTION POLL2008

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National Voter Turnout, 1984-2008Source: Elections & Boundaries Department-1984-2003; SPEAR-2008

87.3

79.3

90.1

72.172.675.0

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65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

1984 1989 1993 1998 2003 2008

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Government Performance Rating

Letter Grade Quality Points(q)

Frequency(f)

Percent Grade Points(q x f)

A – Excellent 4.0 13 3.1 52

B – Very Good 3.0 25 6.0 75

C – Good 2.0 116 27.8 232

D – Poor 1.0 122 29.3 122

F – Very Poor 0.0 96 23.0 0

Sub-Total ∑f = 372 89.2 ∑(q x f) = 481

Grade Point Average (G.P.A): ∑(q x f)/∑f 1.29

Letter Grade Equivalent D

No Opinion 45 10.8

Total 417 100.0

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Scenario Forecasting:Scenario #1: No Further Analysis of the “Undecided” & “Confidential” Clusters

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Scenario Forecasting:Scenario #2: Further analysis of the responses coded “Confidential” using

interpolation , cross tabulations, & data triangulation”

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Scenario Forecasting:Scenario #3: Further analysis of responses coded “Confidential” & “Undecided” using

similar technique as in scenario #2.

QUIK FACTS ON SAMPLING FRAME• Total Number of Respondents - 417• Qualifying Criteria - Registered Voter• Proportionate Sample from Six Districts:

– Urban - 55.6%– Rural – 44.4%– Male - 40.3%– Female – 59.7

• Age Groupings:– Young Adult – 25.9%– Mature Adult – 67.6%– Middle Age – 20.4%– Elderly - 12.0%

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Margin of Error

(+ or - 5%)

or

95% Confidence Level

Pre-Test Survey Conducted