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Speak To The Business!
“If you give a manager a target, he will meet it, even if he has to destroy the organization to do
so.”
--W. Edwards Deming
Agile Metrics That Inform Rather Confuse the Business
Troy Tu'le, KCP Principal Consultant, Owner KanFlow.com [email protected] @troytuDle
Why do we use Metrics?
To help us make informed decisions!
Definitions of “Agile” metrics terms:
Velocity: At the end of each iteration, the team adds up effort estimates (“story points”) associated with user stories that were completed during that iteration. This total is called velocity. – Agile Alliance
Story Points: Agile teams generally prefer to express estimates in units other than the time-honored "man-day" or "man-hour". Story points are purposely dimensionless. -- Agile Alliance
Example: Options for sizing stories are (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 100). Based on what was completed, the team’s velocity is 25 story points per iteration.
What is Velocity?
“Yippee! Our Velocity went from 25 to 35 story points the last 2 sprints.
Let’s go celebrate!”
What is a Story Point?
So the team does relaQve esQmaQon. At any Qme, they can change a “5” to an “8”
and increase their Velocity next sprint. And we should celebrate this???
The mistrust of story points
What about Story Point predictability?
Don’t story points help us predict when a batch of unequal-‐sized stories will be completed?
The following data examples are all from real-‐world so[ware teams or companies…
Story point myopia
-‐-‐ Jim Benson, moduscooperandi.com
16 72 21 19 37
Velocity in Story Points
7 9 9 9 7
Throughput in Card Count
Velocity is a proxy metric
Story points are designed to be abstract.
Velocity is an aDempt to plan work based on an abstracQon, based on an esQmate.
SomeQmes this causes unnecessary confusion and drama!
Unfortunate side effect
Velocity (based on story points) has become a social and business currency.
What about Story Point predictability?
X X X X X X X X
?
What about Story Point predictability?
@duarte_vasco
-‐Vasco Duarte hDp://bit.ly/vasco_blog
24 sprint project
What about Story Point predictability?
Courtesy of Bennet Vallet
Director of Development
Siemens Health Services
Expected DistribuQon Actual DistribuQon
Next you will see the forecasted release date when using Story Points (values
1:2:3)
What about Story Point predictability?
48 49 46 46 44 43 42 42
37 37 36 35
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Release on 12th October
2014
What about Story Point predictability?
Next you will see the forecasted release date when using Story Points (values
1:3:5)
What about Story Point predictability?
68 68 64 64 62 60 59 59
52 52 51 50
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Release on 18th October
2014
What about Story Point predictability?
Next you will see the forecasted release date when just counQng
number of stories (or, all stories = 1 story point)
What about Story Point predictability?
28 30 28 28 26 26 25 25 22 22 21 20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1/1
1/3
1/5
1/7
1/9
1/11
1/13
1/15
1/17
1/19
1/21
1/23
1/25
1/27
1/29
1/31
2/2
2/4
2/6
2/8
2/10
2/12
2/14
2/16
2/18
2/20
2/22
2/24
2/26
2/28
3/1
3/3
3/5
3/7
3/9
Release on 27th September 2014
What about Story Point predictability?
Conclusion...
What about Story Point predictability?
All dates within 3 weeks of each other in a 38 to 42 week
project
What about Story Point predictability?
Data used with permission from Bill Hanlon at Microso[
”At that point, I stopped thinking that es:ma:ng
was important.”
Bill Hanlon: hDp://bit.ly/BHanlon
Data VisualizaQons courtesy of Vasco Duarte hDp://bit.ly/vasco_blog @duarte_vasco
Get out of the Cult
“Cargo Cult Agile”
Many 1st generaQon Agile aDempts simply installed pracQces (recipes).
Following recipes leads to Cargo Cult Agile
No estimation, seriously?
#noesQmates started as a conversaQon on TwiDer and grew into a movement within the Agile community.
If we reject being in an Agile Cargo Cult, we can quesQon the status quo, and ask
Why?
Sure! But we need some good, old fashioned, Agile discipline…
Can we do this work without esQmaQng?
The #noestimates Playbook
• Dedicated and stable teams • Right size user stories • Iterate and deliver frequently • Drip Feed or Investment Funding • Track lead time and throughput • Speak the language of the business!
(don’t use terms from physics) • Don’t use bullet points in your slides
The #noestimates Playbook
Op<on #1 Hours-‐long tradiQonal sprint planning meeQngs spent playing planning poker and a team arguing about the difference between 2’s and 3’s.
Op<on #2 Short story slicing meeQng where the focus is on understanding and slicing large stories. “Do we understand this story? If not, let’s keep slicing.”
1 2 3 5 8 13 20 40 100
Right-‐sizing the work
The #noestimates Playbook
Input Q Design Develop Test Done 1 2 1
3
1 2
9
7
8
6
4
5
Lead Time
Throughput
10
14 days from this point
5 stories per week
MVP A
Upstream Planning
1. PrioriQze
2. Analyze S
S S
S S S
S S
S S
MVP B
Cumulative Flow Diagram
Courtesy of AcQonableAgile.com
Scatter Plot Diagram
Courtesy of AcQonableAgile.com
The #noestimates Playbook
If we start a new story today, we expect to complete it in:
ProbabilisQc ForecasQng
<= 6 days (50th percenQle) <= 15 days (85th percenQle) <= 22 days (95th percenQle)
If we start a batch of 20 stories today, we expect to complete them in:
>= 9 days (throughput of 2.33 / day)
Summary
• Speak the language of the business, use “throughput” and “lead time” instead of the proxy metrics of “story points” and “velocity”
• Metrics that are transparent and based on the actual system’s capacity, are generally more actionable.
• Beware of Cargo Cult Agile. Know why you observe certain practices. Be willing to question!
Speak To The Business!
“If you give a manager a target, he will meet it, even if he has to destroy the organization to do
so.”
--W. Edwards Deming
Agile Metrics That Inform Rather Confuse the Business
Troy Tu'le, KCP Principal Consultant, Owner KanFlow.com [email protected] @troytuDle