SPARTA Meeting 1st Meeting
SPARTA | Fall 2014LED Retrofit Capabilities at
MSU(Revisited)12
SPARTA | Fall 20143
SPARTA | Fall 20144
SPARTA | Fall 2014
CCT: 2800KCRI Average: 86Calculate CCT (Measured)Declare CCT
(Manufacturer)CCT: 4100KCRI Average: 65
Current Lamp: F32T85
SPARTA | Fall 2014CCT: 3400KCRI Average: 84Calculate CCT
(Measured)Declare CCT (Manufacturer)CCT: 4000KCRI Average: 80
Proposed Lamp: CREE LED
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SPARTA | Fall 2014
CREE LED (46W Measured)F32T8 (104W Measured)
LEDFl.Fixture ComparisonFrom 3 fluorescent bulbs to 2 LED
bulbsEquivalent lighting lux7
SPARTA | Fall 2014Color Comparison
F32T8CREE LED UR 2-488
SPARTA | Fall 2014General Characteristic and CCT & CRI
ComparisonNote: The CRI determines how close the bulb is to the
CCTMeasure Spectra to Calculate CCT and CRIDeclare CCT to Calculate
CRIManufacturer SpecsF32T8UR 2-48F32T8UR 2-48F32T8UR 2-48CCT
2800K3400K4100K4000K4100K4000kCRI868465807880F32T8UR 2-48Lifetime
(hours)24,00050,000Warranty (years)2.5-37Replacement
(years)410Capital Cost/Fixture$6.51 $90-$1409
SPARTA | Fall 2014Feasibility Per Fixture Comparison
F32T8UR 2-48Annual Energy Use (kWh)644286Annual Energy
Cost10446($/year/fixture)Installation Labor Rate Per Fixture$2.30
$4.60 Replacement (years)41010
SPARTA | Fall 2014Psychology Bldg. Lighting StudyGoal: To
develop a case study that demonstrates where, and in what use
cases, LED System retrofits make the strongest impact in campus
buildingsUse load data and other project information gathered to
develop an LED Investment Sensitivity Study with 11
SPARTA | Fall 2014Psychology Bldg. Lighting StudyInstallation
ExpensesUnit Cost/Unit Vol.Total ExpenseMaterialsUR
2-48-48-45L-40K-S-FD CREE LED (Shipping Not
Included)fixture$90.1291$8,200.92Labor
ExpenseInstaller/Electricianfixed
hourly$23.9691$2,180.36Installation Overhead % direct
installation14.8%-$322.69Total---$10,703.97Project Scope:Currently
monitoring 1st and 2nd floor hallway lighting for baseline
loadRetrofit 91 hallway fixtures with UR 2-48-48-45L-40K-S-FD kits
at lowest quoted priceMonitor post installation load to display
impact
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SPARTA | Fall 2014LED Investment Sensitivity StudySensitivity
Analysis:The study of how different sources ofuncertaintyin key
inputs can lead to unexpected output values in a modelor system.
Our model uses:Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model pre-vetted by the
DOE EERE to asses the expected return of energy efficiency
upgradesAIC/BIC to measure goodness of fit for input variable
distributions Monte Carlo to run controlled simulations iterations
= 10,000 randomized samples/sim
Application to LED Investments:Asses stress viability of LED
retrofit investments in campus buildings across Key Simulation
Inputs using the Psychology Building Lighting Study scenario
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SPARTA | Fall 2014Key Simulation Inputs:Installation Labor Time
(mins)UR 2-48 Pricing (USD)Annual Utility Rate Escalation (Average,
%) Inflation Rate (Average, %)Real Discount Rate (%) Time Fixtures
are on (Average, %)
Outputs Tested:Lifetime (10yr) Net Present Value (NPV, USD)
Payback Time (PBT, yrs)
Baseline Model:Establishes NPV and PBT outputs in the Discounted
Cash Flow (DCF) model using a set of verified baseline inputs Used
to benchmark simulations against
LED Investment Sensitivity Study14
SPARTA | Fall 2014Baseline Model Installation ExpensesTotal
Direct Cost$10,381 Total Indirect Cost$323 % of Direct Costs Sales
Tax Applies100%Total Installed Cost$11,327 Baseline Model LED
System Performance GainsDegradation (%/year)1.00%Expected Returns
(kW)5.28First Year Annual Savings (kWh)46,262Key Simulation Inputs
for Baseline ModelInstallation Labor Time (mins)60UR 2-48 Pricing
(USD)$90.12 Annual Utility Rate Escalation (Average, %)
1.44%Inflation Rate (Average, %)1.74%Real Discount Rate (%)
3.50%Time Fixtures are on (Average, %)100%LED Investment
Sensitivity StudyBaseline Model:Each Input value has a part in
developing the baseline DCF models intermediate outputs, PBT and
NPV
LED System Performance Gains:Expected Returns are provided by
finding the load reduction between current system and the CREE LED
Retrofit at Psychology Bldg.15
SPARTA | Fall 2014Intermediate Outputs for Baseline
ModelEffective Tax Rate0.00%Credit Basis - Fed$11,326.85 Credit
Basis - State$11,326.85 Nominal Discount Rate5.30%First
Costs$11,326.85 Adjusted Installed Costs$11,326.85
NPV(Nominal,Costflow))$0.00
NPV(Nominal,Output))338,066.30NPV(Real,Output))368,928.11Payback
Time (yrs)2.94LED Investment Sensitivity Study16
SPARTA | Fall 2014LED Investment Sensitivity StudySimulation
Process:Gather Data Sets for Simulation InputsPerform Distribution
fits on Simulation InputsAssess distribution fits using Akaike
Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion Select
Best Fitting Distribution for each Simulation InputParameterize the
SimulationPerform simulation runs on each individual input using
Monte Carlo analysis methodologies over an iteration range of
10,000 randomized samples/sim
Snap-shot of a simulation run in the DCF model (The Time
Fixtures are on Input is currently running in this shot)
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SPARTA | Fall 2014Simulation Input Reference
TablePercentileInstallation Labor Time (mins)UR 2-48 Pricing
(USD)Annual Utility Rate Escalation (Average, %) Inflation Rate
(Average, %)Real Discount Rate (%) Time Fixtures are on (Average,
%)1%0.6$90.19-3.4%-14.0%2.7%11.7%5%3.7$90.44-2.4%-8.4%3.1%18.0%15%11.1$91.12-1.5%-2.7%3.8%27.9%25%18.9$91.92-1.0%-0.5%4.5%35.6%35%27.0$92.86-0.6%0.7%5.2%42.4%45%35.5$94.00-0.2%1.8%5.9%48.2%50%40.1$94.770.0%2.3%6.3%51.1%65%55.4$97.480.5%3.8%7.5%59.6%75%60$100.311.0%5.1%8.5%66.4%85%60$105.111.5%7.2%10.0%74.3%95%60$117.212.3%12.7%12.4%87.2%99%60$141.313.4%18.4%15.3%96.2%Used
to:Assess variation in Outputs Assess overall model
sensitivityAssess investment viability given a significant degree
of simulated uncertainty in the inputs
Note: Simulation Input percentiles are to be paired with the
Output percentiles and Spider Plots
LED Investment Sensitivity Study18
SPARTA | Fall 2014LED Investment Sensitivity StudyPayback Time
Output - Payback Time (yrs)PercentileBaselineInstallation Labor
Time (mins)UR 2-48 Pricing (USD)Annual Utility Rate Escalation
(Average, %) Inflation Rate (Average, %)Real Discount Rate (%) Time
Fixtures are on (Average,
%)1%2.942.262.942.892.942.94105%2.942.302.952.912.942.941015%2.942.342.962.942.942.941025%2.942.472.982.952.942.948.1735%2.942.563.012.962.942.946.8845%2.942.663.032.972.942.945.7150%2.942.713.052.982.942.945.4265%2.942.893.123.002.942.944.9175%2.942.943.193.012.942.944.4185%2.942.943.313.032.942.943.9495%2.942.943.613.062.942.943.3799%2.942.944.213.092.942.943.05Note:
Simulation Input percentiles are to be paired with the Output
percentiles and Spider Plots
19
SPARTA | Fall 2014LED Investment Sensitivity Study20
SPARTA | Fall 2014Note: Simulation Input percentiles are to be
paired with the Output percentiles and Spider Plots
LED Investment Sensitivity StudyNet Present Value Output -
Lifetime NPV(USD)PercentileBaselineInstallation Labor Time (mins)UR
2-48 Pricing (USD)Annual Utility Rate Escalation (Average, %)
Inflation Rate (Average, %)Real Discount Rate (%) Time Fixtures are
on (Average,
%)1%$18,406$18,406$13,468$13,246$67,548$19,585-$7,8535%$18,406$18,406$15,793$14,202$41,888$19,042-$5,96615%$18,406$18,406$16,960$15,090$26,355$17,931-$3,03425%$18,406$18,406$17,424$15,630$22,086$16,981-$75335%$18,406$18,606$17,697$16,105$19,956$16,036$1,26945%$18,406$19,079$17,888$16,518$17,632$14,699$3,00550%$18,406$19,281$17,958$16,722$16,959$14,224$3,86665%$18,406$19,856$18,142$17,316$15,561$13,291$6,39175%$18,406$20,211$18,233$17,824$13,938$12,200$8,41185%$18,406$20,553$18,310$18,448$11,644$10,824$10,77695%$18,406$20,879$18,375$19,484$7,043$8,731$14,59099%$18,406$21,012$18,399$20,828$3,682$6,595$17,28521
SPARTA | Fall 2014LED Investment Sensitivity Study22
SPARTA | Fall 2014LED Investment Sensitivity StudyWhat does all
of this mean:For Payback Time (PBT):Despite a large range of
variation in Simulation Inputs there is little deviation away from
the Baseline Model Outputs - when excluding Time Fixtures are on
This tells us that with even rather extreme amounts of uncertainty
over vital Model Inputs - the Investment in LED systems remains at
most, an on Average 9% above our Baseline Models PBT of 2.94yrs or
otherwise 3.20yrs - when excluding Time Fixtures are on
Range of Simulation Inputs (MAXMIN)Installation Labor Time
(mins)59UR 2-48 Pricing (USD)$51.12Annual Utility Rate Escalation
(Average, %) 7%Inflation Rate (Average, %)32%Real Discount Rate (%)
13%Time Fixtures are on (Average, %)85%Average Deviation from
Baseline (%) - PBT Installation Labor Time (mins)-9%UR 2-48 Pricing
(USD)9%Annual Utility Rate Escalation (Average, %) 1%Inflation Rate
(Average, %)0%Real Discount Rate (%) 0%Time Fixtures are on
(Average, %)115%23
SPARTA | Fall 2014LED Investment Sensitivity Study24
SPARTA | Fall 2014LED Investment Sensitivity StudyWhat does all
of this mean:For Net Present Value (NPV):Like the PBT outputs - a
large range of variation in Simulation Inputs seems to show little
in terms of deviations away from the Baseline Model Outputs - when
excluding Time Fixtures are on Again, this tells us that with even
rather extreme amounts of uncertainty over vital Model Inputs - the
Investment in LED systems remains, on Average, 2.4% below our
Baseline Models Lifetime NPV of $18,406 at $17,960 - when excluding
Time Fixtures are on
Range of Simulation Inputs (MAXMIN)Installation Labor Time
(mins)59UR 2-48 Pricing (USD)$51.12Annual Utility Rate Escalation
(Average, %) 7%Inflation Rate (Average, %)32%Real Discount Rate (%)
13%Time Fixtures are on (Average, %)85%Average Deviation from
Baseline (%) - NPVInstallation Labor Time (mins)6%UR 2-48 Pricing
(USD)-6%Annual Utility Rate Escalation (Average, %) -9%Inflation
Rate (Average, %)20%Real Discount Rate (%) -23%Time Fixtures are on
(Average, %)-78%25
SPARTA | Fall 2014LED Investment Sensitivity Study26
SPARTA | Fall 2014Psychology Bldg. Lighting Study:Monitoring 1st
and 2nd floor hallway lighting for baseline load at 5min logging
incrementsLights in the hallway have been on 100% of the time
MinutesLED Investment Sensitivity Study27
SPARTA | Fall 2014Avg. Energy Use Reduction of 55% per Fixture
over Fluorescent TubesUse 51% ONPBT 5yrsUse 90% ONPBT 3.5yrsLED
Investment Sensitivity StudySignificant Findings (Holding all other
inputs constant at Baseline):28
SPARTA | Fall 2014LED Investment Sensitivity StudyTime Fixtures
are on (Average, %)PBT
(yrs)48.2%5.7151.1%5.4259.6%4.9166.4%4.4174.3%3.9487.2%3.3796.2%3.05Significant
Findings (Holding all other inputs constant at Baseline):29
SPARTA | Fall 2014Avg. Energy Use Reduction of 55% per Fixture
over Fluorescent TubesUse 51% ONNPV > $42/fixture Use 90% ONNPV
> $169/fixtureLED Investment Sensitivity StudySignificant
Findings (Holding all other inputs constant at Baseline):30
SPARTA | Fall 2014LED Investment Sensitivity StudyTime Fixtures
are on (Average, %)Per-Fixture Lifetime NPV (USD)48.20%$33.02
51.10%$42.48 59.60%$70.23 66.40%$92.43 74.30%$118.42 87.20%$160.33
96.20%$189.95 Significant Findings (Holding all inputs constant at
Baseline):
