Space Weather Modeling and Data Integration

Space Weather WorkshopMay, 2008

Lawrence ZanettiScience and Analysis Branchlarry.zanetti@jhuapl.edu

NOAA/SWPC, 09/26/07

Simon Wing (Heliosphere/Magnetosphere) Co-Project Lead

Manolis K. Georgoulis (Sun) Co-Project Lead

Janice Schofield (Technical Services) Developer / Page Curator

This effort could not be possible without the work of This effort could not be possible without the work of numerous APL scientists striving to deliver unique SpW numerous APL scientists striving to deliver unique SpW science products science products

The products we present have been developed in the The products we present have been developed in the framework of the multi-year University Partnership for framework of the multi-year University Partnership for Operational Support (UPOS) Program that prepared the Operational Support (UPOS) Program that prepared the ground for SpW science at APLground for SpW science at APL

NOAA/SWPC, 09/26/0704/25

NOAA/SWPC, 09/26/0709/25

An example of successful flare prediction

NOAA AR 10953, 05/02/07, 23:40 UT, C9 flare

The solar activity at that time was predicted to remain at very low levels (NOAA/SWPC weekly archives)

NOAA/SWPC, 09/26/0711/25

Automatic recognition and characterization of H filamentsApplying pattern recognition to chromospheric H images to

determine the presence of filaments and assess their chirality (Bernasconi et al., 2005)

Left-handed filament

Right-handed filament

Left-handed filament

BBSO

The code utilizes in real time the data from the Global High-Resolution H network

Nearly uninterrupted coverage of the solar disk. Knowledge of the chirality of

the CME stemming from eruptive filaments

NOAA/SWPC, 09/26/0715/25

Kp-forecast timeseries

Input:IMF and solar wind proton density and speed

Output:FAC location and intensity; and total currents for the northern hemisphere

Total Currents

Field Aligned Currents (FAC)

NOAA/SWPC, 09/26/0720/25

The Radiation Belt Storm Probes Mission is in Phase B

Radiation Belt Storm Probes – twin spacecraft in highly elliptical orbits to understand the basic principals behind relativistic particle acceleration, transport, and loss.

RBSP is being implemented as the 2nd mission in the Living With a Star Program.

Input:Near-real time ACE data including IMF, solar wind bulk speed and proton density

Output : Predictions of daily averages of MeV electron fluxes at geostationary orbit up to 27 days in advance

Green : Electron Flux < 1.0e+3

Yellow : 1.0e+3 <= Electron Flux < 5.0e+3

Red : Electron Flux >= 5.0e+3

Energy range :0.7 to 1.8 MeV> 2 MeV

Daily-averaged MeV electron intensity at geostationary orbit

NOAA/SWPC, 09/26/0717/25

ACE Early Warning for Space Weather(Advanced Composition Explorer)

ACE Real-Time Solar Wind (RTSW) data provide an early warning for space weather forecasting

RTSW users are from government, military, industry, and academia

Scientists use ACE data to model space weather disturbances, to significantly advance early warning capabilities, and to predict the geo-effectiveness of space weather events

Advanced Composition ExplorerSpace Weather Science Status 2008

Solar and solar wind disturbances Disrupt military and civilian communications and space systems Damage terrestrial infrastructure Expose airline passengers and crew on polar routes to radiation; cause

communication outages; cause GPS location errors and radar clutter Drive approximately 25% of military and civilian environmental models

Radiation belts out to geosynchronous Geomagnetic storm models, e.g. ionospheric density and structure, Kp Auroral zone position and intensity

Predicting space weather is vital for astronaut health and safety

NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center received more than 4 million file transfers and 20,000 unique users per month in 2007

Input to Lunar and Martian radiation environment models

Advanced Composition ExplorerFunctional Status 2008

Real-time data stream (approx. 5% of science rate) functioning 4 instruments: magnetometer, solar wind, low and high energy particles Energetic total ion detector substitution due to 2002-2003 solar storms

degradation of forward looking telescopes

Spacecraft systems functional although 8 years past design requirement and 5 years past design goal (launch August 1997)

Ceased circularizing Lagrangian L1 halo orbit to preserve fuel Sufficient fuel until 2022

24 hour tracking arranged by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center; charter to deliver real-time space weather products and conditions, to provide predictions to registered users

45 minute to 1 hour warning of geomagnetic activity

backups

Boberg et al. [2000]Operational at Lund Obs.

Operational at NOAA/AF

APL model 1APL model 3[purely driven by solar wind] (1 hr ahead forecast)

APL model 2(4 hr ahead forecast)

(1 hr ahead forecast)

(1 hr ahead forecast)

(1 hr ahead forecast)

(1 hr ahead forecast)

Summary

NOAA/SWPC, 09/26/0716/25

Solar Variability Can Affect Terrestrial Climate

QuickTime™ and aPhoto - JPEG decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Given the massive economic impact of small changes in climate, we should fully understand both natural and anthropogenic causes of global change.

Real-Time ACE Data on the Web NOAA tracks APL-built spacecraft and puts space weather data on the web

• Posted within 5 min

• USAF-NOAA Collaboration

• Tracking by US, UK, India, Japan

Open the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction

Understand the Nature of Our Home in Space

Safeguard Our Outward Journey

Understand the fundamental physical processes of the space environment – from the Sun to Earth, to other

planets, and beyond to the interstellar medium

Understand how human society, technological systems, and the habitability of planets are affected

by solar variability and planetary magnetic fields

Maximize the safety and productivity of human and robotic explorers by developing the capability to

predict the extreme and dynamic conditions in space

Heliophysics Division Objectives

Agency Strategic Objective: Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the Sun and its effects on the Earth, the solar system, and the space environmental conditions that will be experienced by human explorers, and demonstrate technologies that can improve future operational systems

4 Aug 1972Exposure for unshielded flight crew on Lunar surface

Solar Proton Events During the Apollo Program

28-29 Oct 2003Proton Flare(~ level @ ACE)

Estimated level of radiationexposure needed to produce 20%mortality in humans

Solar Probe History

Early Solar Probe studies, reports: 1962, 1978