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Corporate Finance Briefing:S&P vs. I/B/E/S
EarningsYardeni Research, Inc.
December 29, 2020
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Joe Abbott732-497-5306
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Revenues 1S&P 500 Operating Earnings 2S&P 500 Profits Margin 3S&P 500 Earnings 4S&P 500 Margin 5-6S&P 500 Operating & Reported Earnings 7S&P Sectors Quarterly Operating and Reported EPS 8S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & S&P Operating EPS 9S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & SP Operating EPS (% difference)10S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & SP Operating EPS (y/y % growth)11S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Operating and SP Reported EPS 12S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Operating EPS (y/y % growth) 13-14S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & Operating Profit Margins 15S&P 500 Write-Offs 16S&P 500 Trailing Earnings 17S&P 500 Earnings With & Without Energy 18S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues 19-24
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
Q3
S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE(dollars, quarterly)
Latest (346.64)
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 1.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Q3
S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE(yearly percent change)
Latest (-2.4)
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 2.
S&P 500 Revenues
Page 1 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv)(dollars, quarterly, nsa)
Q3
yardeni.com
Latest (38.69)
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 3.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Q3
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv)*(yearly percent change)
Latest (-8.2)
* Due to extreme values, Q4-2008’s -65.2% is capped at -40% and Q4-2009’s +198.9% is capped at 60%.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 4.
S&P 500 Operating Earnings
Page 2 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
Q3
S&P 500 REVENUES & OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(dollars, quarterly)
Revenues (346.6)
Earnings (I/B/E/S) (38.7)
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 5.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222
4
6
8
10
12
14
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q3
S&P 500 OPERATING MARGIN (I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv)(percent, quarterly) Latest (11.2)
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 6.
S&P 500 Profits Margin
Page 3 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 7.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Q3Q3
S&P 500 OPERATING EPS: S&P data vs. I/B/E/S data(dollars, quarterly)
I/B/E/S Operating (38.69)
S&P Operating (37.90)
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q3
Q3
S&P 500 OPERATING EPS (I/B/E/S data) vs. REPORTED EPS (S&P data)(dollars)
I/B/E/S Operating (38.69)
S&P Reported (33.12)
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q3Q3
S&P 500 OPERATING EPS (S&P data) vs. REPORTED EPS (S&P data)(dollars)
S&P Operating (37.90)
S&P Reported (33.12)
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Earnings
Page 4 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 8.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q3Q3
S&P 500 OPERATING MARGIN: S&P data vs. I/B/E/S data(percent, quarterly)
I/B/E/S Operating (11.2)
S&P Operating (10.9)
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
Q3Q3
S&P 500 OPERATING MARGIN (I/B/E/S data) vs. REPORTED MARGIN (S&P data)(percent, quarterly)
I/B/E/S Operating (11.2)
S&P Reported (9.6)
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q3Q3
S&P 500 OPERATING MARGIN (S&P data) vs. REPORTED MARGIN (S&P data)(percent, quarterly)
S&P Operating (10.9)
S&P Reported (9.6)
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Margin
Page 5 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q3Q3
S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN (S&P vs. I/B/E/S earnings data)(percent, quarterly)
S&P 500 Operating Profit MarginI/B/E/S data (11.2)S&P data (10.9)
Source: Standard & Poor’s (revenues and operating EPS) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating EPS).
yardeni.com
Figure 9.
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
Q3
Q3
S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN (S&P reported vs. I/B/E/S operating earnings data)(percent, quarterly)
S&P 500 Profit MarginI/B/E/S operating data (11.2)S&P reported data (9.6)
Source: Standard & Poor’s (revenues and operating EPS) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating EPS).
yardeni.com
Figure 10.
S&P 500 Margin
Page 6 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Q3
Q3
S&P 500 OPERATING & REPORTED EARNINGS PER SHARE (S&P data)(dollars, quarterly)
Operating (S&P data) (37.9)
Reported (S&P data) (33.1)
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 11.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Q3
Q3
S&P 500 OPERATING EPS (I/B/E/S data) vs. REPORTED EPS (S&P data)(dollars)
I/B/E/S Operating (38.7)
S&P Reported (33.1)
Source: Standard & Poor’s (reported EPS) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating EPS).
yardeni.com
Figure 12.
S&P 500 Operating & Reported Earnings
Page 7 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 13.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-30-20-10
01020304050
Q3S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE
S&P Operating EPSS&P Reported EPS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
5
10
15
20
Q3
HEALTH CARE
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Q3Q3
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Q3
INDUSTRIALS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15Q3CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q3
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222
4
6
8
10Q3CONSUMER STAPLES
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
Q3MATERIALS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q3
ENERGY
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Q3
REAL ESTATE
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-25-20-15-10-505
1015
Q3FINANCIALS
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2
0
2
4
6
Q3UTILITIES
yardeni.com
S&P Sectors Quarterly Operating and Reported EPS
Page 8 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 14.
2009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202215
20
25
30
35
40
45
Q3S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE
I/B/E/S Operating EPSS&P Operating EPS
200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120226
8
10
12
14
16
18
20Q3HEALTH CARE
20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Q3
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120220
2
4
6
8
10
12
Q3
INDUSTRIALS
200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222
4
6
8
10
12Q3CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120225
10
15
20
25
Q3
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120224
6
8
10
Q3
CONSUMER STAPLES
200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120220
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Q3
MATERIALS
20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Q3
ENERGY
20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-1
0
1
2
3
4
Q3
REAL ESTATE
20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
Q3
FINANCIALS
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120220
1
2
3
4
5
6
Q3UTILITIES
yardeni.com
S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & S&P Operating EPS
Page 9 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 15.
20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-20-10
01020304050607080
Q3
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS
Percent DifferenceI/B/E/S vs S&P (2.1)
200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120220
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Q3
HEALTH CARE
(25.8)
20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-125-100-75-50-25
0255075
Q3
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
(15.4)
20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Q3
INDUSTRIALS
(2.2)
20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-20
-10
0
10
20
Q3
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(-5.3)
20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q3
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(12.6)
20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q3
CONSUMER STAPLES
(-8.1)
20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
Q3
MATERIALS
(18.5)
Capped at 80%
20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Q3
ENERGY
(-73.3)
Capped at 100% and -100%.
200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120220
25
50
75
100
125Q3REAL ESTATE
(118.4)
20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-125-100-75-50-25
0255075
100
Q3
FINANCIALS
(-26.7)
Capped at -100%.
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
Q3
UTILITIES
(7.0)
yardeni.com
S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & SP Operating EPS (% difference)
Page 10 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 16.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Q3
S&P 500 Operating EPS (y/y %)I/B/E/S (-8.2)S&P (-4.8)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q3
HEALTH CARE(11.6)(13.5)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-100-75-50-25
0255075
100
Q3
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
(4.7)(2.1)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-100-80-60-40-200204060
Q3
INDUSTRIALS
(-51.3)(-52.1)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Q3
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(-0.7)(8.6)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-15
0
15
30
45
60
Q3
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY(6.3)(6.5)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q3
CONSUMER STAPLES
(6.0)(21.1)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-100-75-50-250255075100125150
Q3
MATERIALS(7.1)(-9.0)
Capped at 100%.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Q3
ENERGY
(-100.0)(-100.0)
Capped at 100% and -100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-40
-20
0
20
40
Q3
REAL ESTATE
(-13.7)(-30.0)
Capped at 30% and -30%.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-120-90-60-30
0306090
120
Q3
FINANCIALS(-2.6)(12.8)
Capped at 100% and -100%
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
Q3
UTILITIES
(0.6)(-3.6)
Capped at -50% and 50%.
yardeni.com
S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & SP Operating EPS (y/y % growth)
Page 11 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 17.
2009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202210
20
30
40
50
Q3
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHAREI/B/E/S Operating EPSS&P Reported EPS
200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120220
5
10
15
20
25
Q3
HEALTH CARE
20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-5
0
5
10
15
Q3
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-3
0
3
6
9
12
Q3
INDUSTRIALS
2009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202202468
10121416
Q3
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120220
5
10
15
20
25
Q3
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120223
4
5
6
7
8
9Q3CONSUMER STAPLES
20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-101234567
Q3
MATERIALS
20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Q3
ENERGY
20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Q3
REAL ESTATE
20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
Q3
FINANCIALS
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-2
0
2
4
6Q3UTILITIES
yardeni.com
S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Operating and SP Reported EPS
Page 12 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 18.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Q3
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(yearly percent change)
(-8.2)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q3
HEALTH CARE(11.6)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
Q3
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
(4.7)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
Q3
INDUSTRIALS
(-51.3)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Q3
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(-0.7)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q3
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(6.3)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q3
CONSUMER STAPLES
(6.0)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-50
0
50
100
Q3
MATERIALS
(7.1)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Q3
ENERGY
(-100.0)
Capped at 100% and -100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Q3
REAL ESTATE(-13.7)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-75-50-25
0255075
100125
Q3
FINANCIALS
(-2.6)
Capped at 100%
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q3
UTILITIES
(0.6)
yardeni.com
S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Operating EPS (y/y % growth)
Page 13 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 19.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Q3
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(yearly percent change in 4-quarter sum)
(-13.4)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q3
HEALTH CARE(7.2)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
Q3
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
(-0.3)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
Q3
INDUSTRIALS
(-44.1)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q3
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(-27.9)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10
0
10
20
30
40
Q3
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(5.5)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Q3
CONSUMER STAPLES
(2.4)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-50
-25
0
25
50
75
Q3
MATERIALS
(-12.9)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Q3
ENERGY
(-86.5)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10
-5
0
5
10
Q3
REAL ESTATE(-7.1)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
Q3
FINANCIALS
(-21.4)
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Q3
UTILITIES(6.0)
yardeni.com
S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Operating EPS (y/y % growth)
Page 14 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 20.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 234
6
8
10
12
14
Q3
S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN*(trailing 4-quarter, percent)
(10.4)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20229.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
Q3
HEALTH CARE
(10.4)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20224
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Q3
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
(14.6)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20225
6
7
8
9
10
11
Q3
INDUSTRIALS
(6.1)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20225.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
Q3
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(5.3)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202216
18
20
22
24
Q3
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(21.5)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20226.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
Q3
CONSUMER STAPLES
(7.4)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20226
7
8
9
10
11
Q3
MATERIALS
(8.3)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
2
4
6
8
10
12
Q3
ENERGY
(1.1)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202226
28
30
32
Q3
REAL ESTATE
(27.1)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20226
8
10
12
14
16
18
Q3
FINANCIALS
(12.1)
* Operating margin in percent and based on trailing 4-quarter earnings per share and sales. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv for earnings and Standard & Poor’s for sales.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20229
10
11
12
13
14
15Q3UTILITIES
(14.6) yardeni.com
S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & Operating Profit Margins
Page 15 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Q3
Q3
S&P 500 NET WRITE-OFFS PER SHARE(dollars, 4-quarter sum)
S&P 500 Net Write-OffsS&P Data*I/B/E/S Data**
* S&P operating less S&P reported earnings per share.** I/B/E/S operating less S&P reported earnings per share.
Source: Standard & Poor’s (reported earnings) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating earnings).
yardeni.com
Figure 21.
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q3Q3
S&P 500 WRITE-OFFS PER SHARE(dollars, actual x 4 )
Write-OffsS&P Operating* (19.12)
I/B/E/S Operating** (22.28)
* S&P operating less S&P reported earnings per share.** I/B/E/S operating less S&P reported earnings per share.
Source: Standard & Poor’s (reported earnings) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating earnings).
yardeni.com
Figure 22.
S&P 500 Write-Offs
Page 16 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2220
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Q3
yardeni.com
S&P 500 TRAILING 4-QUARTER OPERATING EPSI/B/E/S VS. S&P
I/B/E/S (141.79)
S&P (123.37)
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 23.
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q3
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Q3
yardeni.com
S&P 500 TRAILING 4-QUARTER OPERATING EPSI/B/E/S VS. S&P
Dollar Difference in 4-Quarter Operating EPSI/B/E/S less S&P
Percent Difference in 4-Quarter Operating EPSI/B/E/S divided by S&P
Source: Standard & Poors and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 24.
S&P 500 Trailing Earnings
Page 17 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 25.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
Q3
S&P 500 TOTAL EARNINGS WITH & WITHOUT ENERGY: I/B/E/S data(billion dollars, quarterly)
I/B/E/S S&P 500 (320.6)
I/B/E/S S&P 500 ex-Energy (321.7)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022100
150
200
250
300
350
400
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Q3
S&P 500 TOTAL EARNINGS WITH & WITHOUT ENERGY: S&P data(billion dollars, quarterly)
SP S&P 500 (314.1)
SP S&P 500 ex-Energy (318.2)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
Q3Q3
S&P 500 TOTAL EARNINGS WITHOUT ENERGY: S&P and I/B/E/S data(billion dollars, quarterly)
I/B/E/S S&P 500 ex-Energy (321.7)
SP S&P 500 ex-Energy (318.2)
yardeni.com
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
S&P 500 Earnings With & Without Energy
Page 18 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-25-20-15-10-5051015202530
-25-20-15-10-505
1015202530
Q2
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50
0
50
100
-50
0
50
100
Q3
S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE(yearly percent change)
Latest (-10.3)
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (I/B/E/S data)*(yearly percent change)
Latest (-8.2)
* Due to extreme values, Q4-2008’s -65.2% is capped at -40% and Q4-2009’s +198.9% is capped at 60%.Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 26.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q3
S&P 500 REVENUES(yearly percent change)
Q3
S&P 500 RevenuesAggregate* (-2.5)Per Share (-2.4)
* S&P quarterly data, not per share. Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter.Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 27.
S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues
Page 19 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
.0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Q3
Q3
S&P 500 AGGREGATE REVENUES & EARNINGS(trillion dollars, nsa, annualized)
S&P 500 Aggregate Revenues*
Net Operating Income(S&P data)
* Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter.Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 28.
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Q3
yardeni.com
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(dollars, quarterly)
S&P 500 Operating EarningsI/B/E/S data (38.69)S&P data (37.90)
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 29.
S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues
Page 20 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q3
S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN: S&P data vs. I/B/E/S data(percent, quarterly)
Operating Profit MarginsI/B/E/S Earnings Data (11.2)S&P Earnings Data (10.9)
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 30.
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22450
550
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
1250
1350
1450
1550
1650
450
550
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
1250
1350
1450
1550
1650
S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE: ACTUAL(S&P quarterly data) & FORWARD (I/B/E/S weekly data)
(dollars, ratio scale) Q3
Revenues Per Share52-week Forward*Actual (x4)
* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s (for actual revenues) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (for forward revenues).
yardeni.com
Figure 31.
S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues
Page 21 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
LehmanCollapse
COVID-19
2221S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE
(analysts’ consensus estimates, dollars, weekly, ratio scale)
12/1720
Consensus ForecastsAnnualForward*
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of consensus revenue estimates for current and next year.Note: Lehman collapsed 9/15/2008. WHO declared global COVID-19 pandemic on 3/11/2020.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 32.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2215
55
95
135
175
215
255
295
15
55
95
135
175
215
255
295
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL OPERATING EARNINGS(dollars, ratio scale)
Q312/24
Earnings Per Share52-week Forward* (167.10)I/B/E/S Operating (x4) (154.76)
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next years.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 33.
S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues
Page 22 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202250
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
LehmanCollapse
COVID-19
2020 2021 2022 Frwd Dec 17 138.27 169.67 197.78 169.07 Dec 24 135.67 167.10 195.04 167.10
2021
22
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ consensus estimates, dollars, weekly, ratio scale)
12/24
Consensus ForecastsAnnualForward*
* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year.Note: Lehman collapsed 9/15/2008. COVID-19 = WHO declares global pandemic on 3/11/2020.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 34.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222
4
6
8
10
12
14
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN MEASURES(percent)
Q312/17
S&P 500 Operating Profit Margins52-week Forward* (11.5)I/B/E/S Operating (11.2)
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next years.Source: Standard & Poor’s (for actual revenues) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (for forward revenues).
yardeni.com
Figure 35.
S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues
Page 23 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20226
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
22
2120
12/1712/17
yardeni.com
(percent, dividing forward earnings by forward revenues)
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN
Consensus Forecasts
52-week forward* (11.5)Annual
Figure 36.
S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues
Page 24 / December 29, 2020 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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