Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas

Update prepared byClimate Prediction Center / NCEP7 September 2010For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/

OutlineHighlights

ENSO Current Status

MJO Current Status

Monsoons Current Status

Southern Hemisphere Circulation

Rainfall & Temperature Patterns

NCEP/GFS Model Forecast

Forecast Verification

Australia: Widespread rainfall continued across southern and eastern Australia during the previous week, while Western Australia received less rain. The GFS forecasts continued rainfall across the southern and eastern wheat belt locales.

Southern Africa: Dry, warm weather continued across most of southern Africa during the previous week. The GFS forecasts continued dry weather.

South America: Wet weather overspread much of eastern and east-central Argentina and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, during the previous week. The GFS forecasts continued rainfall in these locations, as well as persisting dry weather across the remainder of southern Brazil.Highlights

ENSO Current StatusFor more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtmlDuring the last 4-weeks (8 Aug 4 Sep 2010), SSTs were at least 1.0C below-average between 165E and the South American coast and more than 2.0C below-average across small regions east of the International Date Line.General Summary:

La Nia conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific. Negative sea surface temperature anomalies persist across much of the Pacific Ocean. La Nia conditions are likely to continue through early 2011.

MJO Current StatusFor more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtmlThe MJO index continues to indicate no coherent MJO signal in the tropics.The GEFS forecast continues to indicate no development of a coherent MJO signal during the upcoming two weeks.

Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current StatusSouth AmericaSouthern AfricaAustraliaThe dry season continued across southern Africa during the previous three months. Pockets of below-average rainfall were observed across the southern tier of South Africa.For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 DaysGenerally below-average precipitation was observed across central and southern South America during the winter months, particularly across portions of southern Brazil, including Parana. In contrast, above-average rainfall was observed in Uruguay and far southern Brazil, and along Brazils northeastern tip.Below-average rainfall was observed across far southern Western Australia during the previous 90 days, while near to aboave-average rains fell elsewhere. Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: OCT-MARMonsoon Season: NOV-APRRainfall Anomalies: Last 90 DaysRainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days

Southern Hemisphere Circulation200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days

During 30 Aug 5 Sep 2010, enhanced northerly flow on the west sides of upper-level anomalous anti-cylones promoted warmer than average temperatures at the lower levels in eastern Brazil and eastern Australia.Low-level (925 hPa or ~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.AAACAC

Southern Hemisphere CirculationRising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than-average conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-average conditions. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days During 30 Aug 5 Sep 2010, significant anomalous rising motion (negative omega, red shading) observed throughout much of Australia was associated with widespread soaking rainfall. Another area of anomalous negative omega promoted increased rainfall across east central South America. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.

Australia

Rainfall Total & Anomaly PatternsTemperature PatternsGFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 DaysTotalAnomalyDuring the last 7 days, widespread rainfall fell across southern and eastern Australia, covering much of the wheat belt regions. Scant rainfall was observed further west in Western Australias primary wheat region.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 DaysTotalAnomalyDuring the previous 15 days, rainfall covered all of Australias winter croplands. Rainfall was near- to below-average in Western Australia, but above average across the remainder of the wheat belt.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 DaysTotalAnomalyDuring the previous 30 days, above-average rainfall fell across Australias eastern croplands, while near-average rainfall was observed in Western Australias wheat belt.

Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days 30-day rainfall time series across the Australian wheat belt depict the plentiful rainfall observed across most wheat belt locations. A 30 day deficit was observed, however, in portions of Western Australias wheat belt (top left panel).

Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC)Extreme MinimumAnomalyExtreme MaximumMeanWell above-average temperatures were observed across the eastern half of Australia.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation ForecastsTotalAnomalyFor Days 1-7 (7 13 Sep 2010), the GFS forecasts continued rainfall across eastern and southeastern Australia. Little rainfall is forecast for Western Australias wheat belt.Forecasts from 7 Sep 2010 Days 1-7

NCEP/GFS Precipitation ForecastsTotalAnomalyForecasts from 7 Sep 2010 Days 8-14For Days 8-14 (14 20 Sep 2010), continued rains are forecast across the east, with some showers possibly reaching northern portions of Western Australias croplands.

Southern AfricaRainfall Total & Anomaly PatternsTemperature PatternsGFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 DaysTotalAnomaly During the last 7 days, dry weather continued across most of southern Africa.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 DaysTotalAnomalyDuring the last 15 days, seasonable dryness prevailed across southern Africa. Below-average rainfall was observed along the South African shoreline.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 DaysTotalAnomalyDuring the last 30 days, below-average rainfall was observed across southeastern South Africa.

Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days 30-day rainfall time series depict the seasonably dry weather across most of southern Africa, though deficits are growing across eastern locations.

Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC)Extreme MinimumAnomalyExtreme MaximumMeanAbove-average temperatures were observed across most of southern Africa.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation ForecastsTotalAnomalyForecasts from 7 Sep 2010 Days 1-7For Days 1-7 (7 13 Sep 2010), little to no rainfall is forecast across southern Africa.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation ForecastsTotalAnomalyForecasts from 7 Sep 2010 Days 8-14For Days 8-14 (14 20 Sep 2010), continued dryness is forecast.

Brazil & ArgentinaRainfall Total & Anomaly PatternsTemperature PatternsFirst Freeze in southern ArgentinaGFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 DaysTotalArgentinaBrazilAnomalyRainfall in Rio Grande do Sul contrasted with marked dryness in Parana and Santa Catarina during the previous week.

Wet weather overspread much of Argentinas primary wheat growing regions, including previously dry portions of eastern La Pampa and western Buenos Aires.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 DaysTotalArgentinaBrazilAnomaly Two weeks of wet weather across Rio Grande do Sul contrasted with dryness in Santa Catarina, Parana, and Mato Grosso do Sul.

In Argentina, generally above average rainfall was observed across wheat growing regions, though dryness continued across far southern Buenos Aires.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 DaysTotalArgentinaBrazilAnomaly Below-average rainfall was observed across western and southern Brazil during the previous 30 days, with the exception of central and southern Rio Grande do Sul.

Generally near-average rainfall was observed across Argentina, with below-average rainfall continuing across far southern Buenos Aires.

Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days Time series across central and eastern South America depict the generally dry weather conditions and increasing deficits in Brazil, and recent rainfall in northern Argentina (bottom left panel).

Temperature (C) - BrazilBased on GTS Stations (no QC)Extreme MinimumAnomalyExtreme MaximumMeanWell above-average temperatures were observed across southern Brazil for a second week.

Extreme MinimumAnomalyExtreme MaximumMeanTemperature (C) - ArgentinaBased on GTS Stations (no QC)Colder weather overspread much of Argentina, with hard freezes returning to far southern La Pampa and Buenos Aires.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation ForecastsTotalAnomalyForecasts from 7 Sep 2010 Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 (7 13 Sep 2010), continued rainfall is forecast across central and northeastern Argentina and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. In contrast, dry weather is expected to persist further north in Parana.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation ForecastsTotalAnomalyForecasts from 7 Sep 2010 Days 8-14 For Days 8-14 (6 12 Sep 2010), continued rainfall is forecast in Rio Grande do Sul, with drier weather overspreading Argentina.

USDA Crop Information

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