Southeast Asia from the Corner of 18th & K Streets · PDF fileChanging the Paradigm in the South China ... concerned with promoting peace and prosperity in the Asia Pacific has

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Southeast AsiaProgram

Volume II | Issue No. 10 | June 22, 2011

Southeast Asia from the Corner of 18th & K Streets

The Quintissential Test of ASEAN Centrality: Changing the Paradigm in the South China SeaERNEST BOWERErnest Z. Bower is the senior adviser and director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Wash-ington, D.C.

Inside This Issue

the week that was

June 22, 2011

CSIS Conference on the South China Sea

Vietnam Stages Live Fire Exercises

Philippine Foreign Secretary to Visit U.S.

-looking ahead

7th Round of TPP Negotiations

Secretary Del Rosario to Speak at CSIS

18th ARF to Be Held in Bali in July

Ironically, the South China Sea physically connects a majority of the nations in East Asia and at the same time divides them. No country concerned with promoting peace and prosperity in the Asia Pacific has the luxury of turning away from this riddle. In fact, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the self-proclaimed center of new regional security and trade architecture, faces a historic challenge in this context. It must lead in converting the South China Sea from the sea of potential conflict to waters that bind and propel Asian prosperity.

ASEAN has the strategic position to drive this change, but it will take new levels of political courage and coordination, institutionalization of regional structures, and unprecedented levels of proactive diplomacy. ASEAN’s responsibility is clear. It is the glue that binds key actors together, either through direct membership or via regional structures such as the ASEAN + 1, ASEAN + 3, ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting Plus (ADMM+), the East Asia Summit (EAS), and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum.

The South China Sea is vital not only to ASEAN, but to global stability and economic growth. It is home to vital sea-lanes of navigation that enable more world trade than any other body of water. It also is home to navies that will dominate the world’s oceans for the rest of the twenty-first century. Finally, it contains key assets, from its marine life to its natural resources needed to fuel the economic engine of Asian Pacific growth.


Southeast Asia from the Corner of 18th & K Streets June 22, 2011 | 2

The Quintissential Test of ASEAN Centrality (continued)

Currently, tensions in these vital waters are extremely high. China is asserting historical and arcane legal claims, which it says it is interpreting as defining its “indisputable sovereignty” over the South China Sea defined by a very aggressive 9- or 10-dot line that runs to the beachfront of its neighbors’ land masses. Other countries have disputes—some bilateral, others multilateral—over various other parts of the sea.

In addition, the United States and other nations have asserted their interests in freedom of navigation and resolution of disputes both maritime and territorial.

Recommendations for resolving the conflict and converting the South China Sea from a pool of troubles and danger to one of opportunities revolve around ASEAN and can be seen as a real test of whether ASEAN’s centrality is a strategic framework that can promote peace and economic stability—and therefore strong growth—in Asia. The purpose of this note is to explore some of these recommendations:

• 1. Enhance predictability and transparency. Confrontation and conflict arise when countries are unclear about one another’s needs and intentions. ASEAN can promote confidence building and develop trust by using the ADMM+, ARF, and the EAS to encourage member countries to share and discuss security and defense strategies (e.g., standardize the practice, shared by some in the region, of publishing defense planning white papers).

• 2. Invest in Track 2 diplomacy. Given the stakes in the South China Sea, current levels of track 2 and track 1.5 diplomacy are at prehistoric levels, particularly in ASEAN. All interested countries should invest in a paradigm-changing level of dialogue on the South China Sea and seek to promote and enhance these discussions to illuminate policy-level discussions in official regional forums such as ARF, ADMM+, and EAS.

• 3. Strengthen ASEAN institutions. ASEAN members have purposely underfunded and understaffed the ASEAN Secretariat to ensure no trespassing on their sovereign concerns. However, as the South China Sea and other regional conflicts and the pace of regional economic integration clearly indicate, it is time to move to the next level and strengthen ASEAN to promote security and economic growth.




• 4. Commit to meaningful dialogue and diplomacy. ASEAN will set the agenda for the most important regional institutions capable of dealing with the South China Sea challenges—namely ARF, ADMM+, and EAS. ASEAN must commit to tabling the real issues—even if considered sensitive—at these forums to ensure laser-like focus on the hard issues and to prepare recommendations and solutions for leaders at the EAS. If these meetings avoid or paper over real concerns, they could actually aggravate the situation and enhance the risk of confrontation and conflict.

• 5. Engage in proactive diplomacy. ASEAN can and should do more in the area of diplomacy. It cannot afford war or conflict in the South China Sea, yet it has assumed a reactive stance, interpreting the intentions of and awaiting signals from larger, more powerful nations. ASEAN could play a more proactive role in encouraging its members and partners to resolve disputes using existing legal and multilateral mechanisms such as the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the International Court of Justice, and other world-class arbitration mechanisms. For instance, it would be useful to have an ASEAN envoy sent to the United States to meet administration and congressional leaders to encourage the United States to ratify the UNCLOS.

• 6. Integrate economies. While ASEAN appears to have been proactive in encouraging regional economic integration through negotiating free trade agreements with key partners, the fact is that the private sector has driven integration through rational and commercially motivated investments and development of new markets. Governments could and should do more to follow through on deepening and broadening trade and investment linkages by markedly increasing harmonization and standardization of investment rules, implementing common customs clearance measures, and developing practical joint development models—in consultation with the private sector—that would promote safe and environmentally sustainable development of resources in the South China Sea in ways that would benefit all countries.

These are some framework recommendations for how ASEAN and its partners could change the paradigm around discussions about the South China Sea from attempts to define differences to a proactive search for common interest and mutual benefit.




ASEAN has an opportunity to take on this historic challenge and succeed with strong support from its partners in the EAS and beyond. Only history will be able to judge the impact of ASEAN’s collective decision about whether to engage and lead or to assume a reactive posture and deal with the consequences.

The Week That Was


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SOUTH CHINA SEA

• CSIS hosts conference on Maritime Security in the South China Sea. Just weeks ahead of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the CSIS Southeast Asia program hosted a major conference on Maritime Security in the South China Sea in Washington, D.C., June 20–21, 2011. Speakers and panelists included U.S. senator John McCain, CSIS president and CEO Dr. John Hamre, and former Director of National Intelligence and deputy secretary of state John Negroponte. Experts from around the world convened for two days of discussions to shed light on recent developments and make recommendations for progress toward peaceful resolution of disputes in the South China Sea. CSIS will publish a report that includes papers from the speakers and summarizes conclusions and recommendations.

• Vietnam stages drills in South China Sea. Vietnam began a series of live-fire drills in the South China Sea on June 13, 2011. The drills, which took place 25 miles off the coast of central Vietnam on Hon Ong Island, were launched in the wake of escalating tensions with China over oil exploration in the disputed Spratly Islands. In the days before the drills, Vietnam’s foreign ministry announced that it would welcome “every effort by the international community” to maintain peace in the South China Sea.

• Philippines to rename parts of South China Sea “West Philippine Sea.” The Philippines has decided to rename its claims in the South China Sea the “West Philippine Sea.” The move is seen as an expression of concern over heightened tensions resulting from China’s increased maritime activity in the area. Policy makers behind the move in Manila view the renaming of the disputed area as a means to strengthen the country’s claim in the sea.

• Confusion over Mutual Defense Treaty as U.S. says it “does not take sides in regional territorial disputes.” In response to China’s recent activities in the South China Sea, the U.S. embassy in Manila issued a statement that “the United States does not take sides in regional territorial disputes.” Many interpreted the statement to mean that the United States would not

Senator John McCain, who spoke at CSIS’s Conference on Maritime Security in the South China Sea.flickr.com/photos/11304375@N07/2744633011/

• CSIS Announces Pacific Partners Initiative . CSIS has initiated a new program called the Pacific Partners Initiative that will focus exclusively on policy and developments in Australia, New Zealand, and the Pacific Island Countries (PIC) . The new initiative already has a Facebook page (click here to view and please join) and starting in July coverage of Australia, New Zealand, and the PIC will be provided in a new monthly newsletter . More details on the initiative will be available shortly.

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support the Philippines in a conflict with China, regardless of the Mutual Defense Treaty between both countries. The embassy quickly corrected the record and indicated that the statement referred to “the current boundary dispute” and not a future “hypothetical conflict.”

EAST ASIA SUMMIT (EAS)

• EAS is part of ASEAN’s “Organic Infrastructure:” Lee Hsien Loong. At the World Economic Forum on East Asia in Jakarta on June 12, Singapore’s prime minister Lee argued that ASEAN’s close relationship with the EAS, ASEAN Plus 3, and APEC has helped strengthen ties among the 10-member ASEAN grouping. The prime minister stressed that the United States and China must continue to use organizations like the East Asia Summit to maintain stability in Southeast Asia.

ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM

• Vietnam says that multilateralism needed in South China Sea. During the eighth ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) security policy conference in Surabaya, Indonesia, Vietnamese deputy defense minister Nguyen Chi Vinh argued for increased international cooperation in the South China Sea. Vinh highlighted ARF’s increasingly important role, advocating that the organization be used to create a code of conduct in the sea based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). China, the United States, and Indonesia voiced their support for such an agreement.

VIETNAM

• U.S.-Vietnam Political, Security, and Defense Dialogue held in Washington, D.C. On June 17, 2011, U.S. assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs Andrew Shapiro and Vietnam’s deputy foreign minister Pham Binh chaired the fourth annual U.S.-Vietnam Political, Security, and Defense Dialogue. Both sides discussed working toward a strategic partnership and asserted that territorial disputes in the South China Sea should be solved in accordance with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. They also stressed that ASEAN and China reach agreement on a full code of conduct governing the South China Sea.

• ADB predicts Vietnam’s inflation will fall. On June 14, 2011, the Asia Development Bank (ADB) said it expects Vietnam’s inflation rate to begin dropping this month. Inflation in Vietnam reached 19.8 percent in May 2011, one of the highest rates in the world. Despite the optimistic forecast, the ADB claimed that interest rates “can still be tightened a little more, but

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not much.” The State Bank of Vietnam has raised the reverse-repurchase interest rate 800 basis points to 15 percent since November 2010.

• Maryland governor O’Malley visits Vietnam. Governor of Maryland Martin O’Malley and 68 Maryland business and education leaders visited Vietnam for one day on June 14, 2011, where O’Malley met Vietnam’s prime minister Nguyen Tan Dung. The governor oversaw a number of deals between Maryland and Vietnamese businesses and signed a Memorandum of Understanding establishing sister-state relations with Vietnam’s Ninh Thuan province. The MOU is the first of its kind and aims to boost trade, investment, and educational and cultural exchanges.

INDONESIA

• Abu Bakar Bashir sentenced to 15 years in prison. On June 16, 2011, an Indonesian court sentenced radical cleric Abu Bakar Bashir to 15 years in prison for supporting a terrorist training camp in Indonesia. Bashir was arrested in August 2010 for allegedly helping establish the jihadi cell, which reportedly attempted to kill moderate Muslim leaders, including Indonesia’s president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Political analysts suggest that although Bashir’s sentence does not mark the end of radicalism in Indonesia, it is nevertheless a symbolic victory in the country’s fight against Islamic radicalism.

• CSIS holds U.S.-Indonesia Executive Education Program. The CSIS Southeast Asia Program held its inaugural Indonesia Executive Education Program hosting 10 Indonesian military officers selected for their leadership skills to visit Washington, D.C., June 13–17, 2011. The delegation participated in an intensive, weeklong curriculum including a series of seminar-style lectures and discussions led by experts, academics, and senior U.S. government officials. Highlights included briefings with former deputy secretary of state and defense Richard Armitage, CSIS president and CEO Dr. John Hamre, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific Dr. Kurt Campbell, and a dialogue with Senate Foreign Relations Committee staff. The delegates also visited the Pentagon for a day of briefings. The CSIS program exposes fast-tracked Southeast Asian leaders to trends in international security policy, civilian-military affairs, and U.S. foreign policy.

• World Economic Forum (WEF) on East Asia held in Jakarta. Asian political and economic leaders convened in Jakarta June 12–13, 2011, for the World Economic Forum on East Asia, where they discussed economic growth,

Maryland governor Martin O’Malley, who met Vietnamese prime minister Nguyen Tan Dung on a visit to Vietnam. flickr.com/photos/29388462@N06/4679824642/

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food security, and disaster preparedness in Asia. During the forum, Indonesian president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono hailed Asia as “the continent of the future” but stressed the importance of tackling the rising demand for food, energy, and water.

• WEF releases first Indonesia Global Competitiveness Report. Released on June 8, the report noted that Indonesia—ranked 44th among 139 countries—showed the strongest progress among G20 nations, moving up 10 places since 2005. The study highlighted Indonesia’s improvement in its macroeconomic environment, including reducing its debt burden, upgrading its credit rating, and increasing its savings and investments. However, it also noted that the country needs to improve its public health, information technology, and infrastructure, and step up its battle against corruption.

MALAYSIA

• Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin to visit the U.S. Malaysia’s deputy prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin will conduct a low-profile visit to the United States at the end of June including a visit to Washington, D.C. The deputy prime minister will consult with senior officials, think tank leaders including CSIS, and other groups during his visit.

• Malaysia’s ISIS and CSIS launch joint initiative. Malaysia’s Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) and the CSIS Southeast Asia Program announced the launch of an initiative encompassing a major study and several new programs designed to deepen ties and provide substantive input to policymakers. ISIS and CSIS will begin work immediately on a major study on U.S.-Malaysian relations titled “From Strength to Empowerment: The Next Generation of U.S.-Malaysia Relations.” The study will provide recommendations on strengthening security, political, economic, scientific, educational, and sociocultural cooperation between the two countries. CSIS will also receive Malaysian fellows, the first of whom will begin in late June, and jointly conduct a series of congressional study visits to Malaysia. For more information on the study and on other initiatives that CSIS and ISIS Malaysia are undertaking, click here.

• “Bersih 2.0” rally to be held in Malaysia’s capital. Bersih, a coalition of opposition parties and nongovernmental organizations, will hold its second rally in Kuala Lumpur on July 9, 2011, calling for fair elections. Activists from the opposition coalition Pakatan Rakyat will join the

Indonesian president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono at the World Economic Forum on East Asia in Jakarta. At the forum, the president called Asia “the continent of the future.” flickr.com/photos/worldeconomicforum/5823335155/

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protest, and the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party, or PAS, claims it will bring hundreds of thousands of marchers. The Malay-rights group Perkasa will march in opposition to the rally. Bersih held its first rally in 2007, which the police dispersed with water cannons and tear gas.

• Malaysia considering amnesty program to legalize immigrants. Home Minister Hishamuddin Hussein said the government is screening private agencies to help register illegal immigrants. The plan, expected to be the largest in the country’s history, would help relieve Malaysia’s labor shortage by increasing the country’s legal labor pool and help attract foreign investment. Malaysia has up to 2 million illegal migrants, and many Malaysian industries rely on workers from Indonesia, Burma, and India. The initiative has been opposed by some groups in Malaysia who are concerned that it is likely to increase competition for jobs.

• PHILIPPINES

• Philippine foreign secretary Del Rosario visiting Washington. The Philippine foreign secretary, Albert Del Rosario, is visiting Washington, D.C., from June 20 to June 24. Secretary Del Rosario will conduct meetings with top U.S. policymakers at the State Department, White House, Department of Defense, and Capitol Hill. The secretary will also speak at CSIS’s prestigious Banyan Tree Forum on June 23, where he will provide special insight into the Philippine perspective on the South China Sea. The secretary will also address U.S.-Philippine relations and prospects for the future of the alliance. To register for the event, please contact the Southeast Asia Program.

• Philippine House of Representatives speaker Feliciano Belmonte Jr. visits Beijing. Speaker Feliciano Belmonte Jr. is leading a congressional delegation on a visit to Beijing this week. The speaker confirmed that he would discuss the Spratly Islands dispute in his meetings with Chinese parliamentarians.

• Bangko Sentral to keep interest rates steady. The Philippine central bank announced that it will keep interest rates steady at 4.5 percent, although it will raise the bank reserve requirement slightly. The decision was made even though the inflation rate is at 4.5 percent, its highest in 13 months. Analysts expect the central bank will raise rates later this year.

Philippine secretary of foreign affairs the Hon. Albert Del Rosario to speak at CSIS. Del Rosario will speak at the CSIS Banyan Tree Leadership Forum on June 23, 2011. flickr.com/photos/congressman_honda/955210306/

A rally by Bersih in 2007. Bersih, a coalition of NGOs calling for free elections, will hold a rally in Kuala Lumpur on July 9, 2011. http://www.flickr.com/photos/youzicase/1959695059/

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• Governor calls for controversial boycott of Chinese goods. Joey Salceda, the governor of Albay Province and former presidential economic advisor, called on Filipinos to boycott Chinese goods in response to Chinese activities in the South China Sea that have been interpreted in Manila as overtly aggressive. President Aquino’s office said that a boycott “is not administration policy,” and the chairman of the Senate Ways and Means Committee, Ralph Recto, called the plan “foolish and ill-advised.”

BURMA

• U.S. Navy turns back North Korean ship. On May 26, 2011, the U.S. Navy destroyer USS McCampbell intercepted a North Korean cargo ship, the M/V Light, en route to Burma. The ship was suspected of illegally transporting missiles, but its crew denied the McCampbell permission to inspect it, violating UN Resolution 1874. The ship was allowed to return to North Korea under U.S. surveillance. Burmese officials denied any connections to the ship on May 27 and June 13, 2011.

• Burmese military launches assault on Kachin rebels. On June 9, 2011, the Burmese army launched an assault on Kachin Independence Army (KIA) positions along the Ta Pein River, where China Datang Corporation operates two hydropower plants. The attack violates a cease-fire signed between the Burmese junta and the KIA in 1994. The KIA destroyed key bridges across the river, and the Chinese employees operating the plants fled. The KIA had rebuffed demands by the Burmese government to transform into a border guard force under government control.

• Burmese military deploys around Shan State Army headquarters. Hundreds of Burmese troops have redeployed to areas surrounding the headquarters of the Shan State Army (SSA), bringing the estimated troop strength in the area to 25 brigades. Clashes occurred on June 13, 2011, and a larger assault is expected. The Burmese army began operations against the SSA in May 2011. Like the KIA, the SSA rebuffed demands last year to transform into a border guard force under government control.

• Aung San Suu Kyi appeals to ILO for help with Burmese labor rights. On June 13, 2011, opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) made a video appeal to delegates of the International Labor Conference asking that the International Labor Organization (ILO) continue its work in Burma. ASSK asserted that “the work of the ILO in our country has highlighted the indivisibility of social, political, and economic concerns.” Forced labor and other abuses remain common despite a decades-long campaign by the ILO and promises of change by the junta.

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THAILAND

• Thailand’s invitation to EU election observers comes too late. Thailand’s Election Commission said that it would welcome European Union observers for the country’s July 3, 2011, polls. According to EU officials, however, the invitation arrived too late to prepare a full-scale EU election mission because its monitoring teams usually arrive six months prior to polls. An unnamed EU diplomat said that the EU may send observers, but would not consider them part of an election observation mission.

• Investors jittery during run-up to elections. Investor confidence in Thailand has dropped in the run-up to the country’s July 3 general elections, according to the Wall Street Journal. Net foreign direct investment (FDI) fell to only $69.5 million in the first quarter of this year, and the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) is down 3 percent this year. Kasikornbank researcher Kobsidthi Silpachai said that politics has become “Thailand’s structural problem” that “will likely keep FDI away.” Investors, however, remained strongly engaged in the country after high-levels of political violence and unrest last year. Analysts predict equity, currency, and bond markets are unlikely to be seriously affected.

AUSTRALIA

• Polls show sagging support for PM Gillard. Senior Liberal Party members in the Australian Parliament called on Prime Minister Julia Gillard to hold elections after her approval ratings slipped from 50 to 30 percent in new opinion polls. The drop comes in the wake of Gillard’s announcement of a new carbon tax. Support for Gillard’s Labor Party is lower today than it was a year ago, when Gillard ousted Kevin Rudd as prime minister in a supposedly “unwinnable” election.

• Indonesia criticizes Australian live cattle ban. Indonesian agricultural minister Suswono decried Australia’s decision to suspend live cattle exports to his nation as “unfair.” The suspension came in response to accusations of cruel treatment of Australian cattle in Indonesian abattoirs; Indonesian officials, however, disputed the standards that Canberra applied. The ruling has caused complaints within Australia, and Northern Territories minister Paul Henderson has called on Australian officials to resume the cattle trade with Indonesia.

Election posters in Bangkok. Thailand is holding polls on July 3, but the EU is unable to send a formal election observation mission. flickr.com/photos/timokl/2139762789/

Australian prime minister Julia Gillard, whose popularity has slipped drastically in recent months. flickr.com/photos/publik16/3008360571/

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NEW ZEALAND

• Earthquake rocks Christchurch re-building hopes. New Zealand’s second-largest city was rocked by a 5.5 magnitude earthquake on June 13, 2011. The earthquake comes as the city struggles to recover from two recent devastating quakes and thousands of aftershocks. Prime Minister John Key warned that some parts of the city might have to be permanently abandoned. New Zealand sits atop the Pacific Rim’s precarious “Ring of Fire,” a series of seismically active fault zones, and is highly susceptible to earthquakes. Experts note that foundations for rebuilding cannot be poured until there are at least 20 days without earth movement. Christchurch has reportedly not come close to that benchmark.

• Kiwi government considers lifting ban on Fiji government. Government officials are considering allowing former members and supporters of the Fiji military government to travel to New Zealand. The issue was raised after Fiji dissenter Lieutenant Colonel Tevita Mara was allowed into the country. Although lifting the ban would complicate immigration laws, Foreign Affairs Minister Murray McCully said by allowing Fijians like Colonel Mara to come to New Zealand, the government was hoping to convince more people to abandon Commodore Bainimarama’s regime.

ASEAN

• ASEAN to discuss nuke-free zone with the United States and China. ASEAN aims to persuade the five nuclear-weapon states under the terms of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty—the United States, Russia, UK, France, and China—to join the Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ) Treaty. During the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) Defense Officials’ Dialogue and Senior Officials’ Meeting in Surabaya, Indonesia, on June 7, 2011, the SEANWFZ commission’s executive committee working group drafted an initial proposal for the five states to sign the treaty. ASEAN will present the proposal to the United States, as well as to the other four states, during the 18th ARF in Bali this July.

• ASEAN Air Force leaders agree to boost regional security. During the eighth Conference of ASEAN Air Force Chiefs of Staff on June 15, 2011, in Hua Hin, Thailand, ASEAN Air Force leaders agreed to improve their air force capabilities for both combat and non-combat military operations. The chiefs also discussed cooperation in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR). An agreement was made to boost regional stability as part of the member states’ common goal to establish an ASEAN Community by 2015.

“Prime Minister John Key warned

that some parts of the city might have to be permanently

abandoned.”

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SINGAPORE

• George Yeo out of presidential race; Tony Tan and Nathan “still deciding.” Former foreign minister George Yeo announced that he will not run for president. Former deputy prime minister Tony Tan and current president S. R. Nathan are “still deciding” whether to run. Singapore will hold its presidential elections before September 1, 2011, although observers expect the city-state to hold polls after National Day celebrations end in mid-August. This year will mark the first time that Singapore’s parliamentary and presidential elections are held in the same year.

• Singapore the sixth most expensive city in Asia for expats. In its latest cost of living survey, ECA International, a company providing solutions for firms with overseas executives, ranked Singapore the sixth most-expensive city in Asia for expatriates. This represents a jump from ninth place in the previous report and is due in part to the strength of the Singapore dollar. The top three most-expensive cities in Asia were Tokyo, Nagoya, and Yokohama.

LAOS

• Laos’s president and prime minister returned for new terms. Laos’s National Assembly convened on June 14, 2011, following the April elections and confirmed new terms for President Choummaly Sayasone and Prime Minister Thongsing Thammavong on June 15. The confirmations were expected after Choummaly was reappointed head of the Lao People’s Revolutionary Party in April. The National Assembly has traditionally approved choices made by the politically powerful Politburo and Central Committee.

• Minister-cum-chief of Lao Government Secretariat visits Hanoi. Cheuang Sombounkhan, minister-cum-chief of the Lao Government Secretariat, met with Communist Party of Vietnam general secretary Nguyen Phu Trong and Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung in Hanoi on June 6, 2011. The leaders reaffirmed the “special relationship” between the two countries, pledged to implement agreements signed at the 33rd session of the Vietnam-Laos Intergovernmental Committee on April 9, and signed a memorandum of understanding to raise the capacity of the Lao Prime Minister’s Office. Vietnam and China regularly vie for influence in Laos.

“This year will mark the first time that Singapore’s parliamentary and presidential elections are held in the same year.”

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TIMOR LESTE

• UN on track for post-election Timor Leste withdrawal. The United Nations mission in Timor Leste affirmed that it is on track to withdraw UN forces following the 2012 elections. The mission’s political director, Gary Gray, stated that the country has come a long way since the violence in 2006, but said peace remains fragile. The mission’s international partners will continue to support the new state, which gained independence from Indonesia in 2002.

CAMBODIA

• Sino-Cambodian trade reaches $498 million. According to Cambodia’s Ministry of Commerce, bilateral trade with China reached $498 million in the first quarter of this year, a remarkable 216 percent rise from last year’s first quarter. Cambodia carries a massive trade deficit with China. While Cambodia’s exports to China increased 341 percent to $42 million over the same period, imports from China rose 208 percent to $456 million. Kong Putheara, director of the Commerce Ministry’s statistics department, attributed these increases to “better economic recovery and closer economic and social ties” between the two countries.

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM

• Singapore confers top military award on Brunei minister. Pehin Haji Mohd Yasin Hj Umar, Brunei’s minister of energy and former minister of defense, has been given Singapore’s highest military award, the Distinguished Service Order, for his “outstanding contributions” to bilateral military ties. In a press statement, Singapore’s Ministry of Defense praised Pehin Yasmin Umar’s role in strengthening people-to-people ties between the two countries’ armed forces, as well as overseeing cooperation on multilateral issues, particularly during the development of the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting.

PAPUA NEW GUINEA

• Murder in PM’s home fogs succession picture. The son of Acting Prime Minister Sam Abal has been arrested for the murder of a woman in Abal’s home last week. Acting Prime Minister Abal is standing in for Prime Minister Michael Somare, who temporarily stepped aside due to ill health and a corruption investigation.

A UN police station in Timor Leste. The United Nations is set to withdraw its forces from the country following the 2012 elections. commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hera-UN-Police-Station-2009.JPG

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• Severe food shortage worsens in Bougainville Islands. Bougainville regional authorities have confirmed that the food shortage in the autonomous region of Bougainville is worsening. Promised emergency supplies from the government have not yet been delivered to the islanders. The shortage was caused by crop failures as a result of rising sea levels and unusually heavy rainfall.

MEKONG RIVER

• Conservation Forum Mekong held in Vietnam. During the Third Natural and Cultural Conservation Forum held on June 5, 2011, participants agreed on the need for environmental policies that deal with the ongoig decrease in biological diversity and declining natural resources of the Mekong Delta. Economic development has disturbed the delta’s once well-functioning wetland ecosystem both upstream and downstream. Sunrise on the Mekong. In a forum held on

June 5, participants agreed on the need for environmental policies to support the Mekong’s biological diversity. flickr.com/photos/pretre/3038037841/

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Looking Ahead


• 7th Round of TPP negotiations, June 15–24, 2011, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. The seventh round of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks will be held in Ho Chi Minh City June 15–24, 2011. Negotiators are working on text and addressing controversial issues including intellectual property rights, e-commerce, and environmental concerns, in an effort to achieve a framework agreement ahead of the APEC Leaders’ Summit in Honolulu, Hawaii, in November. Asian partners are watching for passage of the U.S.-Korea, -Colombia, and -Panama FTAs for an indication that the Obama administration can get Congress to approve a trade agreement. Questions are also being asked about whether Vietnam will be able to implement the conditions of the extensive agreement being negotiated.

• “Pacific Night,” June 22, 2011, Washington, D.C. Pacific Night is an annual showcase of Pacific culture, food, entertainment, and ideas organized by the embassies and missions of Pacific Island countries and territories based in Washington and New York. This year, the showcase is being held at the New Zealand Embassy in Washington on the evening of June 22. It will start with a seminar on “The Future of the Pacific,” featuring a panel speaking on the challenges facing the region, to be followed by a reception featuring entertainers and national dishes from countries around the Pacific region. For more information, contact Michael Appleton, Second Secretary at the New Zealand Embassy.

• CSIS Banyan Tree Leadership Forum featuring the Honorable Albert Del Rosario, foreign secretary of the Republic of the Philippines, June 23, 2011. Washington, D.C. Secretary Del Rosario will speak at the prestigious CSIS Banyan Tree Leadership Forum on June 23, 2011. The secretary’s remarks are timely and will provide special insight into the fast-evolving Philippine perspective on the South China Sea. The secretary will also address U.S.-Philippine relations and prospects for the future of the alliance. The Banyan Tree Forum is the premier Washington venue for Southeast Asian and U.S. leaders to articulate their views on vital issues affecting bilateral and regional relations. To register for the event, please contact the Southeast Asia Program.

• 18th ARF to be held in Bali in July. The 18th ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) will be held in Bali July 16–23, 2011. The forum aims to foster constructive consultation and dialogue on political and security issues of common interest and concern.

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southeast asia from the corner of 18th & k streets CSIS Southeast Asia Program contributors: Ernest Bower, Senior Adviser and Director Ai Ghee Ong, Research Associate and Program Manager Lie Nathanael Santoso, Intern Scholar Kheng Swe Lim, Intern Scholar Greg Poling, Intern Scholar Rizal Siddik, Intern Scholar Alexander Vagg, Intern Scholar Ian Saccomanno, Intern Scholar

This newsletter is published by the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Stra-tegic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. CSIS’s research is non-partisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accord-ingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

© 2011 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.

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Southeast Asia from the Corner of 18th & K Streets · PDF fileChanging the Paradigm in the South China ... concerned with promoting peace and prosperity in the Asia Pacific has