South East European Virtual Climate Change

Centre - Roles and activities in support Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster

Reduction in SEE

37th EWGLAM and 22th SRNWP Meeting, Belgrade, Serbia, October 2015

Political agreement

UNECE “Environment for Europe”

2007

WMO

RA VI RCC-Network

WCRP (CORDEX, …)

SEEVCCC Background - Enhancing sub-regional

SEE cooperation in climate related issues

2007UNFCCC

Programme for Adaptation

WCRP (CORDEX, …)

Under considerationPartners

SEEVCCC + SEE CCFAP (Action Plan)

Adaptation

MoE-Serbia REC

Geo-Modelling RGGM

University of Belgrade Oxford

BiH FYROMMNE SRB

NMHSs, R&D inst., … MoUs

CIMA

ALB…

initiative of several interested countries for MoU

WMO RA VI-Europe RCC Network SEEVCCC

Mandatory operational functions:

● Climate Data Node

Lead: KNMI/Netherlands (consortium member SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia)South East European gridded model datasets for 1961-1990 (ready)

●●●● Climate Monitoring Node

Lead: DWD/Germany (participate SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia)

• collecting data from the stations (monthly, 400-500 stations; main source for data KNMI-ECA&D, other climate bulletins NCDC)• mean temperature and accumulated precipitation,• temperature anomaly and precipitation percent of normal,• all available monthly/three-monthly

South East European gridded model datasets for 1961-1990 (ready)

●●●● Long Range Forecast Node

• all available monthly/three-monthly

Lead: Météo-France & ROSHYDROMET (participate SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia)Once a month ensemble run of a regional long range forecast - 7 months ahead: dynamical downscaling ECMWF 41 ensemble with RCM-SEEVCCC

RCC Highly recommended functions:

SEEVCCC Earth Modeling System Development

NCEP NMMB atmospheric model● global/regional/local● global/regional/local

● hydrostatic/nonhydrostatic

Aerosol ↔ radiation

Aerosol ↔ cloud

HYPROM Hydrology

model

DREAM Dust• Sea salt• Carbon

• Pollution

model

Ocean model

Fe and P nutrients

SEEVCCC Emerging Technologies (Seamless Climate-Weather Prediction: Weather and Climate Time Scales)

Short- to Medium -Range Seasonal Forecasts Long -Term

SEEVCCC available technologies:

Medium -Range Weather

Seasonal ForecastsShort-Term Climate

Long -TermClimate

0-14 days months to seasons decades to century

SEEVCCC available technologies: ● NCEP NMM-B: Unified Nonhydrostatic Multiscale Model on B grid (Zavisa Janjic, NCEP)● POM (Vladimir Djurdjevic, Borivoj Rajkovic, Belgrade University)● DREAM: Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (Slobodan Nickovic,RHMSS)● HYPROM: Hydrology prediction model (Nickovic, RHMSS)

………………….

Enhanced capacity of the SEEVCCC to support DRR and Climate Change Adaptation in SEE– SEEVCCC/RHMSS Weather and Climate Prediction and Warning Framewor k

Forecast Uncertainty

Scenarios Climate Change. Centuries

Fore

cast

Le

ad

Tim

e

Weather

Forecasts

Assessments

Outlook

Prediction

y

Initial

Conditions

Boundary

Conditions

Days

1 Week

2 Weeks

Months

Seasons

Years

Weather

Climate Variability

Anthropogenic

Forcing

CWA

Warnings & Alert

Weather

Applications

Tra

nsp

ort

ati

on

Pro

tect

ion

of

Life

& P

rope

rty

Ae

ron

au

tica

l

Ap

pli

cati

on

s

Rec

reat

ion

Eco

syst

em

Sta

te/L

oca

l

Pla

nn

ing

Env

ironm

ent

Pu

bli

c

We

ath

er

Se

rvic

es

Ag

ricu

ltu

re

Wat

er

Res

ourc

e P

lann

ing

Ene

rgy

Fore

stry

Hyd

ropo

wer

Wa

ter

Ma

na

g.

He

alt

h

Minutes

Hours

Adapted from: NOAA

SEEVCCC Future Plans

�Implementation of mandatory functions within WMO RA VI RCC-Network;

�Implementation of RCC highly recommended functions trough Implementation of Long Term Research and Developm ent Plan adopted by Expert SEE – Meeting and Ministerial conference “Climate Researc h by Expert SEE – Meeting and Ministerial conference “Climate Researc h Aimed at Environmental Protection, Climate Change A daptation and Disaster Reduction”, held on 13th April 2011 in Bel grade;

�Use of other existing RCMs in climate change resear ch and climate impact studies;

�Collaboration in further application and improvemen t of Climate Watch Advisory System; Advisory System;

�Setting up of SEECOP and CB activities;

�Enhancing of sub-regional cooperation and partnersh ips;

� Contribution to GFCS, WCRP, IPCC, UNFCCC, WMO/RCOF- SEECOF, WMO/DRR, WMO/WIS …