South Africa’s Education Crisis 1994-2011

Overview of new 2013 CDE report and focus on mathematics

NicSpaull.comCDE – 17 October 2013

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Outline

1. Overview of CDE report2. Overview of SA education system3. SA students performance in maths4. Mathematics item analysis5. Teacher content knowledge6. Way forward…

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2013 CDE report: “South Africa’s Education Crisis”

1. Overview of South African children’s performance on local and international assessments of educational achievement (1995-2011)

2. Grade 6 teacher content knowledge in South Africa3. National Senior Certificate performance: retention & subject

choice4. Inequality of educational opportunity5. Insurmountable learning deficits 6. Transitions from school to work and tertiary institutions 7. Policy suggestions & conclusions

Bird’s-eye view of the South African

education system

Attai

nmen

tQ

ualit

yTy

pe

5

High SES background

+ECDHigh quality primary school

High quality

secondaryschool

Low SES background

Low quality primary school

Low quality secondary

school

Unequal society17%

Semi-Skilled (31%)

Unskilled(19%)

Unemployed

(Broad - 33%)

Labour Market

High productivity jobs and incomes (17%)

• Mainly professional, managerial & skilled jobs

• Requires graduates, good quality matric or good vocational skills

• Historically mainly white

Low productivity jobs & incomes

• Often manual or low skill jobs

• Limited or low quality education

• Minimum wage can exceed productivity

University/FET

• Type of institution (FET or University)

• Quality of institution • Type of qualification

(diploma, degree etc.)• Field of study

(Engineering, Arts etc.)

• Vocational training• Affirmative action

Majority (80%)

Some motivated, lucky or talented students make the transition

Minority (20%)

- Big demand for good schools despite fees

- Some scholarships/bursaries

cf. Servaas van der Berg – QLFS 2011

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SA Gr8/9 maths performance 1995201119

95

1999

2002

2002

2011

2011

1995

1999

2002

2002

2011

2011

Grade 8 Grade 9 TIMSS middle-income country

Gr8 mean

Grade 8 Grade 9 TIMSS middle-income country

Gr8 mean

TIMSS Mathematics TIMSS Science

0

80

160

240

320

400

480

276 275 264 285352

433

260 243 244 268332

443

TIM

SS sc

ore

• Between 1995 and 2002 there was no improvement in Gr8 mathematics achievement• Between 2002 and 2011 there was a substantial improvement (approx. 1.5 grade levels) in Gr9 mathematics

achievement• Post-improvement level is still very low; the average SA Grade 9 pupil is two years worth of learning behind the

average Grade 8 pupil from 21 other middle-income countries in mathematics, and 2,8 years behind in science.

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Rus

sian

Fed

erati

on

Lith

uani

a

Kaz

akhs

tan

Ukr

aine

Arm

enia

Rom

ania

Tur

key

Leb

anon

Mal

aysi

a

Geo

rgia

Tha

iland

Mac

edon

ia, R

ep. o

f

Tun

isia

Chi

le

Iran

, Isl

amic

Rep

. of

Jord

an

Pal

estin

ian

Nat

'l A

uth.

Bot

swan

a (G

r9)

Indo

nesi

a

Syr

ian

Ara

b Re

publ

ic

Mor

occo

Sou

th A

fric

a (G

r9)

Hon

dura

s (G

r9)

Gha

na

Qui

ntile

1

Qui

ntile

2

Qui

ntile

3

Qui

ntile

4

Qui

ntile

5

Inde

pend

ent

Middle-income countries South Africa (Gr9)

200

240

280

320

360

400

440

480

520

560

TIM

SS 2

011

Mat

hem

atics

scor

eFigure 2: Average Grade Eight mathematics test scores for middle-income countries participating in TIMSS 2011 (+95% confidence intervals around the mean)

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NSES question 42NSES followed about 15000 students (266 schools) and tested them in Grade 3 (2007), Grade 4 (2008)

and Grade 5 (2009).

Grade 3 maths curriculum: “Can perform calculations using appropriate symbols to solve problems involving: division of at least 2-digit by 1-digit numbers”

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5Question 42

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

16% 19% 17% 17%

39%13% 10% 12% 12%

14%

13% 14% 14% 15%

13%

59% 57% 57% 55%

35%

Still wrong in Gr5Correct in Gr5Correct in Gr4Correct in Gr3

Even at the end of Grade 5 most (55%+) quintile 1-4 students cannot answer this simple Grade-3-level problem.

“The powerful notions of ratio, rate and proportion are built upon the simpler concepts of whole number, multiplication and division, fraction and rational number, and are themselves the precursors to the development of yet more complex concepts such as triangle similarity, trigonometry, gradient and calculus” (Taylor & Reddi, 2013: 194)

(Spaull & Viljoen, forthcoming)

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NSES question 37NSES followed about 15000 students (266 schools) and tested them in Grade 3 (2007), Grade 4 (2008)

and Grade 5 (2009).

Grade 3 maths curriculum: “Can perform calculations using approp symbols to solve problems involving: MULTIPLICATION of at least 2-digit by 1-digit numbers”

Even at the end of Grade 5 more than a third of quintile 1-4 students cannot answer this simple Grade-3-level problem.

“The powerful notions of ratio, rate and proportion are built upon the simpler concepts of whole number, multiplication and division, fraction and rational number, and are themselves the precursors to the development of yet more complex concepts such as triangle similarity, trigonometry, gradient and calculus” (Taylor & Reddi, 2013: 194)Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5

Question 37

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

23% 29% 25% 29%

54%22%

18% 20%19%

17%

17% 17% 18%18%

11%38% 37% 37% 33%

18%

Still wrong in Gr5Correct in Gr5Correct in Gr4Correct in Gr3

(Spaull & Viljoen, forthcoming)

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TIMSS 2011 Gr9

Systemic 2007: Grade 3 tested in HL 41% correctNSES 2009: Grade 5 tested in English 43% correct

SACMEQ 2007: Grade 6 tested in English 21% correct (c)

TIMSS 2011: Grade 9 tested in Engl/Afr 27% correct (b)

On a 4-choice MCQ random guessing would produce 25% correct on average

Systemic 2007 Gr3 NSES 2009 Gr5

SACMEQ 2007 Gr6

South African teacher content knowledge

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Teacher Content Knowledge• Conference Board of the Mathematical Sciences (2001, ch.2) recommends that

mathematics teachers need: – “A thorough mastery of the mathematics in several grades beyond that

which they expect to teach, as well as of the mathematics in earlier grades” (2001 report ‘The Mathematical Education of Teachers’)

• Ball et al (2008, p. 409) – “Teachers who do not themselves know the subject well are not likely to

have the knowledge they need to help students learn this content. At the same time just knowing a subject may well not be sufficient for teaching.”

• Shulman (1986, p. 9)– “We expect that the subject matter content understanding of the teacher

be at least equal to that of his or her lay colleague, the mere subject matter major”

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South Africa specifically…

• Taylor & Vinjevold’s (1999, p. 230) conclusion in their book “Getting Learning Right” is particularly explicit:

• “The most definite point of convergence across the [President’s Education Initiative] studies is the conclusion that teachers’ poor conceptual knowledge of the subjects they are teaching is a fundamental constraint on the quality of teaching and learning activities, and consequently on the quality of learning outcomes.”

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Carnoy & Chisholm (2008: p. 22) conceptual framework

Teacher knowledge

Student understands & can calculate

fractions

PCK – how to teach

fractions

CK – How to do

fractions

“For every increment of performance I demand from you, I have an equal responsibility to provide you with the capacity to meet that expectation. Likewise, for every investment you make in my skill and knowledge, I have a reciprocal responsibility to demonstrate some new increment in performance”

(Elmore, 2004b, p. 93).

Teachers cannot teach what they do not know.

Demonizing teachers is popular, but unhelpful

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South Afri

ca

Philippines

Portuga

l

Icelan

d

Engla

nd

New Ze

aland

Lithuan

ia

Cypru

s

Latvia

(LSS

)

ZANZIB

AR

Romania

TIMSS

Gr8 Avg

Irelan

d

Switz

erlan

d

SOUTH

AFRICA

MOZAMBIQ

UE

Austria

Russian

Federa

tion

Bulgaria

Slova

k Rep

ublic

Belgium (F

l)

Czech Rep

ublic

SACMEQ

AVG.

Hong Kong

Korea

TANZA

NIAKEN

YA0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

24%

48%

Aver

age

perc

enta

ge co

rrec

t on

16 co

mm

on m

athe

mati

cs it

ems

SACMEQ Grade 6 teachers’ average correct response (dark red) and TIMSS Grade 8 average correct response (light red) on 16 items common to Gr 8 TIMSS Mathematics test 1995 and SACMEQ Grade 6 mathematics teachers test 2007

SA Gr6 Teachers

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Solutions?

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Possible solution…

• The DBE cannot afford to be idealistic in its implementation of teacher training and testing– Aspirational planning approach: All primary school mathematics teachers

should be able to pass the matric mathematics exam (benchmark = desirable teacher CK)

– Realistic approach: (e.g.) minimum proficiency benchmark where teachers have to achieve at least 90% in the ANA of the grades in which they teach, and 70% in Grade 9 ANA

(benchmark = basic teacher CK)

• Pilot the system with one district. Imperative to evaluate which teacher training option (of hundreds) works best in urban/rural for example. Rigorous impact evaluations are needed before selecting a program and then rolling it out

• Tests are primarily for diagnostic purposes not punitive purposes

Accountability stages...

• SA is a few decades behind many OECD countries. Predictable outcomes as we move from stage to stage. Loveless (2005: 7) explains the historical sequence of accountability movements for students – similar movements for teachers?

– Stage 1 – Setting standards (defining what students should learn),

– CAPS– Stage 2 - Measuring achievement

(testing to see what students have learned),– ANA

– Stage 3 - Holding educators & students accountable (making results count).

– Western Cape performance agreements?

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3) Holding accountable

2) Measuring achievement

1) Setting standards

Stages in accountability movements:

TRAINING

“For every increment of performance I demand from you, I have an equal responsibility to provide you with the capacity to meet that expectation. Likewise, for every investment you make in my skill and knowledge, I have a reciprocal responsibility to demonstrate some new increment in performance” (Elmore, 2004b, p. 93).

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When faced with an exceedingly low and unequal quality of education do we….

A) Increase accountability {US model}• Create a fool-proof highly specified, sequenced curriculum (CAPS/workbooks)• Measure learning better and more frequently (ANA)• Increase choice/information in a variety of ways

B) Improve the quality of teachers {Finnish model}• Attract better candidates into teaching degrees draw candidates from the top

(rather than the bottom) of the matric distribution• Increase the competence of existing teachers (Capacitation)• Long term endeavor which requires sustained, committed, strategic, thoughtful

leadership (something we don’t have)

C) All of the above {Utopian model}

• Perhaps A while we set out on the costly and difficult journey of B??

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3 biggest challenges - SA

1.Failure to get the basics right• Children who cannot read, write and compute properly (Functionally

illiterate/innumerate) after 6 years of formal full-time schooling• Often teachers lack even the most basic knowledge

2.Equity in education• 2 education systems – dysfunctional system operates at bottom of African

countries, functional system operates at bottom of developed countries.• More resources is NOT the silver bullet – we are not using existing resources

3.Lack of accountability • Little accountability to parents in majority of school system• Little accountability between teachers and Department • Teacher unions abusing power and acting unprofessionally

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Decreasing proportion of matrics taking mathematics

Matric 2008 (Gr 10 2006)

Matric 2009 (Gr 10 2007)

Matric 2010 (Gr 10 2008)

Matric 2011 (Gr 10 2009)

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%Grade 10 (2 years earlier) Grade 12 Those who pass matric

Pass matric with maths Proportion of matrics taking mathematics

Num

ber o

f stu

dent

s

Prop

ortio

n of

mat

rics (

%)

Numbers wrote maths

Numbers passed maths Maths pass rate Proportion taking

mathsProportion passing maths

2008 298 821 136 503 45,7% 56,1% 25,6%2009 290 407 133 505 46,0% 52,6% 24,2%2010 263 034 124 749 47,4% 48,8% 23,2%2011 224 635 104 033 46,3% 45,3% 21,0%

Table 4: Mathematics outputs since 2008 (Source: Taylor, 2012, p. 4)

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Way forward?

1. Acknowledge the extent of the problem• Low quality education is one of the three largest crises facing our country (along with

HIV/AIDS and unemployment). Need the political will and public support for widespread reform.

2. Focus on the basics• Every child MUST master the basics of foundational numeracy and literacy these are the

building blocks of further education – weak foundations = recipe for disaster• Teachers need to be in school teaching (re-introduce inspectorate?)• Every teacher needs a minimum competency (basic) in the subjects they teach• Every child (teacher) needs access to adequate learning (teaching) materials• Use every school day and every school period – maximise instructional time

3. Increase information, accountability & transparency• At ALL levels – DBE, district, school, classroom, learner• Strengthen ANA• Set realistic goals for improvement and hold people accountable