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1. Financial markets functioning better Difference between 3-month interbank rate and expected policy rate, basis points (Basis spread). Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank. 2. Loan losses increasing SEK billion net, totalled over four quarters, fixed prices, 31 March 2009. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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1. Financial markets functioning betterDifference between 3-month interbank rate and expected policy rate, basis points (Basis spread)
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400Sweden
Euro area
USA
BNP Paribas
Secure liquidity prior to year-end
Lehman Brothers
Bear Sterns
2. Loan losses increasingSEK billion net, totalled over four quarters, fixed prices, 31 March 2009
Source: Finansial Stability Report 2009:1, the Riksbank
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120Results before loan losses
Loan losses
3. World GDP growthAnnual percentage change
Sources: The IMF and the RiksbankNote. The broken column represents the Riksbank’s forecast.
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
4. Slow recoveryQuarterly changes in per cent calculated as annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank
Note. Broken columns represent the Riksbank’s forecasts in July 2009.
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Euro area
USA
5. The oil price, Brent crude USD per barrel
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecasts.Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Outcome
Forward rates, average up to and including 25 June 2009
6. Commodity pricesUSD, Index 2000 = 100
Source: The Economist
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240Food
Other agricultural productsMetalsTotal
7. Consumer prices USAAnnual percentage change
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and the OECD
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
CPI CPI excluding energy and food
8. Real house prices, USAIndex 1950 = 100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Source: Robert J. Schiller, Princeton UniversityNote. Outcome up to end of Q1 2009.
9. Signs of a turnaroundPurchasing managers’ index, index above 50 indicates growth
Sources: Institute for Supply Management, NTC Research Ltd and the NIER
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
SwedenEuro area
USA
10. Consumer prices euro areaAnnual percentage change
Sources: Eurostat and the OECD
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
CPI HICP excluding energy
11. GDP abroadAnnual percentage change
Source: IMF July 2009
2008 2009 2010Brazil 5,1 -1,3 2,5Russia 5,6 -6,5 1,5India 7,3 5,4 6,5China 9 7,5 8,5
12. GDP in SwedenAnnual percentage change
Note. Broken columns represent the Riksbank’s forecasts.Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
13. Survey indicator Index
Source: National Institute of Economic Research (NIER)
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120Survey indicatorMean value
+/- one standard deviation
14. Signs of a turnaroundPurchasing managers’ index, index above 50 indicates growth
Sources: Institute for Supply Management, NTC Research Ltd and the NIER
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
SwedenEuro area
USA
15. Employment Thousands, EU definition, 15-74 years of age, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
Note: The dotted line indicates the Riksbank’s forecast. Data prior to 2001 has been chained by the Riksbank
16. UnemploymentPercentage of workforce, EU definition, 15-74 years of age, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Note: The dotted line indicates the Riksbank’s forecast. Data prior to 2001 has been chained by the Riksbank
17. Inflation close to target Annual percentage change
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecasts.Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
CPI CPIF
18. Exchange ratesSEK per EUR and per USD respectively
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
04 05 06 07 08 09
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12SEK/EUR
SEK/USD
Source: Reuters EcoWin
19. Unit labour costsAnnual percentage change
Note. Broken lines and columns represent the Riksbank’s forecasts.Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Unit labour costsLabour costs per hourProductivity
20. Inflation expectationsAnnual percentage change
Sources: The NIER and Prospera Research AB
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.05 years
2 years
21. Current account and public financesPer cent of GDP
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecasts.
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12Government net lending
Current account
22. Low repo rate over long period of timePer cent, quarterly average
Source: The RiksbankNote. The uncertainty interval is calculated using historical forecasting errors.
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
90%75%50%Repo rate
23. Utilisation of resourcesPercentage deviation from the HP trend
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote: The dotted line refers to the Riksbank’s forecast.
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6GDP
Employment
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