Monetary Policy Update

December 2011

Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

90%75%50%OutcomeForecast

Source: The RiksbankNote. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the ability of risk-adjusted market rates to forecast the future repo rate. The uncertainty bands do not take into account the fact that there may be a lower bound for the repo rate.

Figure 2. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

90%

75%

50%

Outcome

Forecast

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. There is also uncertainty for the outcomes for GDP, as the figures in the National Accounts are revised several years after the preliminary publication.

Figure 3. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

90%75%50%OutcomeForecast

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors.

Figure 4. CPIF with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change

0

1

2

3

4

0

1

2

3

4

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

90%75%50%OutcomeForecast

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.

Figure 5. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

05 07 09 11 13

October

December

Source: The Riksbank

Figure 6. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

05 07 09 11 13

October

December

Source: The RiksbankNote. The real repo rate is calculated as an average of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts for the coming year minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period.

Figure 7. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

05 07 09 11 13

October

December

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 8. UnemploymentPercentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

80 85 90 95 00 05 10

Unemployment, aged 16-64

Unemployment, aged 15-74

December

October

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Pre-1987 data have been spliced by the Riksbank. The forecast refers to age group 15-74.

Figure 9. Labour force and number of employedThousands, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Pre-1993 data have been spliced by the Riksbank.

3,800

4,000

4,200

4,400

4,600

4,800

5,000

5,200

3,800

4,000

4,200

4,400

4,600

4,800

5,000

5,200

80 85 90 95 00 05 10

Employed, aged 16-64

Employed, aged 15-74

Labour force, aged 16-64

Labour force, aged 15-74

Figure 10. CPIAnnual percentage change

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

05 07 09 11 13

October

December

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 11. CPIFAnnual percentage change

0

1

2

3

4

0

1

2

3

4

05 07 09 11 13

October

December

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.

Figure 12. GDP-gap and RU-indicatorPer cent and standard deviation

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

80 85 90 95 00 05 10

RU indicator

GDP gap (PF)

GDP gap (HP)

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. GDP gap (HP) refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated with a Hodrick-Prescott filter. GDP gap (PF) refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated with a production function. The RU indicator is normalised so that the mean value is 0 and the standard deviation is 1.

Figure 13. TCW-weighted exchange rate Index, 18 November 1992 = 100

Source: The RiksbankNote. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages.

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

05 07 09 11 13

Oktober

December

Figure 14. Hours gapPer cent

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. The hours gap (HP) refers to the deviation from trend in the number of hours worked calculated with a Hodrick-Prescott filter. The hours gap refers to the deviation in the number of hours worked from the Riksbank’s assumed trend for the numbers of hours worked.

Figure 15. GDP in different regions and countriesQuarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

05 07 09 11 13

USA

Euro area

Sweden

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank