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EmeraldCity100%RenewableEnergyPlan
StevenB.Smiley
Email:[email protected]
SOLAR2020“VIRTUAL”CONFERENCEJune24– 25,2020AmericanSolarEnergySocietyWashington,DC
EnergyandEconomicPhilosophy
• “Allenergychoicesandpricesarebasedonpoliticsandpolicy”- JohnPestle(MIenergyattorney(ret.)
• “Makethemarketyourslave,notyourmaster”FredeHvelplund;AalborgUniversity,Denmark
• 21st Centuryeconomy:Mustbe“Regenerativeanddistributive”- KateRaworth;“DoughnutEconomics”2017>>
• “Wealthisregeneratedsolarradiation”-R.BuckminsterFuller– “OperatingManualforSpaceshipEarth”
SummaryConclusions• Backbygreenbonds,greenbanksandon-billutilityfinancing,thecapitalbottleneckwillberemovedreleasingthetremendous“latent”demandbylocalcitizensofallincomelevelsandthemuniforcleanenergy.
• Newwindandsolargenerationwillberoughly3timesthepresentelectricconsumption,and3timesthepeak.
• Unlimitedsolarnetmeteringwith<1%impactonutility• Flexibleandtargetedcarbonfees,negativeatoff-peak,willdriveoutnaturalgas.
• CHPquickresponsebiogasengines(enoughtorunthecityonaverage)andasback-upintheeventofgridfailures.
• ElectricbatterystorageandEV’swillbephasedinwithincentivesandlow-costTOUcharging.
Conclusions(cont.)• Distributiongridmodernizationwillbeconducted.Thisincludesretrofittingdistributionsubstationsforbi-directionalcontroland+100MVAofrenewableenergysub-station(s).• 1,000’sofelectrichotwaterandotherthermalstorageunitswillbeintegratedintothesystemandmanagedwith“gridharmonization”.LargethermalstorageassociatedwithsomeCHP/districtheat• Excessenergycanbesoldintotheregionalgrid,avoidingcurtailment.• Energycostswillbelowerthanpresentandfixedindefinitely.
EmeraldCity– GeographyandResources
• Humidcontinentalclimate:7,794HDDand458CDD(degF)
• 44degreesNlatitude
• Population:15,000
• Area:8.7sq.miles(22.5sq.km)
• 640feetmeansealevel– 1,000feet(300m)elevationmax.
• Solarresource:1,350kW-hourspersq.meter/yr.
• Windresource:IECClassIIIonsurroundinghills
• Biomassandbiofuelsfeedstockavailable
Energy- EconomicProfile(w/otransport)
• Annualelectricandgasexpense:$55million• Annualelectricexpense:$35million• AnnualNaturalgas:$20million• 93%ofenergysupply(non-transport)iscoalandnaturalgas
• Annualelectricconsumption:310millionkW-hours
• Summerelectricpeak:70MW• Baseloadelectricdemand:25MW• Averageelectricdemand:40MW• AnnualNaturalgasconsumption:560millionkW-hours
• Averagecustomerelectriccost$0.11/kW-hour
CustomerEconomic/ElectricProfile– ImportantDistinctions:87%ofcustomers– residential- 80%ofelectricrevenuesnon-residential
CustomerClassBreakdown(87%Residential) CustomerRevenueBreakdown(80%Non-residential)
ElectricLoadProfile
SolarNetMeteringExpansion• CriticaltostartASAPtopushsolarenergyfrominsideout
• Netimpactonutilityrevenues<1%• Remove20kWlimitonindividualsolarnetmeteringinstallationsolargercommercialcustomerscanbenetzero
• RemovenetmeteringtotalsystemkW-hourcaps(MIhas1%cap)
• Conductlocalized“valueofsolar”studywithalldirectandindirectbenefitsaccountedforandadjustnetmeterpricebyeconomiesofscale(i.e.largersystemspaidlessthansmallresidentialsystems)
• Providelongtermon-billfinancingforsolarelectricsystems
• Providerebatesforsolarinstallations• Noaddedfixedmonthlyfeeforsolarnetmetering!
• Providelong-term(20years)contractguarantee
Netmetered9kWwithEV
CommunityandCooperativeSolar
• Solarforcitizensthatwantto“own”ashareofsolarwithon-billfinancingandcredits• Buildsonexistingmodelsthatareinplace• Tapsintolocalcitizenfinancialresources• Providesfortargetedsystemlocationstobalancecitywidesolarloads– i.e.neardistributionsubstations• Providesforutilityengineeredandmanagedstoragesystemstooptimizeanddispatchdistribution
TargetedVariableCarbonFeesandDistribution• Variablecarbonfee:(Withseniorandlow-incomecitizensprotected)• Targetcarbonfeeswithtime-of-useelectricrates• Highfeeduringpeakperiods(i.e.+2cents/kW-hour• Negativefee(i.e.– 1cent/kW-hour)onoff-peakratestoout-competenaturalgas(i.e.<4centsperkW-hour),andtoencouragefuelswitching,storage,EVcharging,etc.
• Phasedownfeeascarbonemissionsarereduced• Wherepossible,putcarbonfeeonnaturalgasuseincity• SomeMuni’sthatdistributegascandothis• Thosecitiesthatdon’tdistributegas(EmeraldCity)canprovidethecompetitivebasisforeliminatingnaturalgaswithlowoff-peakrates,fuelswitching,heatpumps,andthermalstoragethatout-competesnaturalgas
On-billfinancingforefficiency,solar,storage,fuelswitching,EVcharging,controls…• Variablefinancetermlengthsappropriatetobalanceagainstsavings,solarsystemcosts,storage,fuelswitchingcosts– withtermsbasedoncustomerpreference• Includebenefitofnaturalgassavings(avoidance),inloancalculationandabilitytopay• Lowinterest,backedbyautilityloanguarantee.• Noqualificationsotherthanelectricbill– nocreditcheck,beneficialforlowincome• ASourceofutilityrevenuesforservice
RebatesforEfficiency,Solar,Storage(thermalandelectric),FuelSwitching,DemandControls,EV• GoodRebateProgramInPlace• LED,refrigeration,HVAC,ECMefficientmotors,solar($90/kW– couldbehigher)
• Needtoaddenergystorageandelectricvehiclerebateincentives• Needtoaddfuelswitchingrebates
Ban/EliminateNewNaturalGasConnections
NaturalGasPhaseOutProcess
• StepOne:makeelectricitycompetitivewithnaturalgasforthermalenergy--spaceandwaterheating—soeconomicincentivetochange
• Onlyallowspecialexemptionsfornewnaturalgashookups
• Donotrepairorreplaceoldgaslinesasit’slowercosttoretrofittogreenelectricitythantorepairand/orreplaceaginggaslines
• Inanyevent,aging(60years+)gaslinesareleakinganddangerousandmustbeabandonedforsafetyreasons
Transition
• StepTwo:TransitionnaturalgasCHPsystemstobio-gasandelectricstoragesystems(especiallylargethermalstorage)duringten-yearplan
• Note:Localeconomicbenefitsofkeepingnaturalgasmoneyathomeexceed$20millionperyear,plusmultipliereffects,airqualitybenefits,etc.
ProjectSummary:Wind/Solar/Storage/CHP• Wind• Est.28windturbines1– 4persurroundingtownships• Approx.400millionkW-hr/year• 100+/- MWPeakCapacity• Solar• 800acres– 1.25sq.miles– incityandsurroundingopenland• Approx.300millionkW-hrs/year• 160+/- MWPeakCapacity• CHP– Biogas• 150millionkW-hrs/year• 35MWPeakCapacity• Battery/ThermalStorage– (Withmarket-basedincentives– customerchoice)• EVImplementation– (Withmarket-basedincentives– customerchoice)
Wind:UtilityScale
• Largerotor– 4MW+• ClassIII– low-windresourceturbines• Highcapacityfactor:40%– 50%• Generating90%+oftime• Twotofourturbinespersurroundingtownships– sharingenergybenefits(i.e.LeelanauandGrandTraverseCounties,forex)• Least-costenergy• Locallyowned– public/private
Projects:SolarTechnology
• PhaseI:Insidethedistributionsystem• Distributed,netandvirtualmetering• Community/CooperativeSolar• Schools,hospital,publicfacilities• Utility“distribution”sub-stationbased,projects• Industrialsites
Projects:CombinedHeatandPower• Insidethedistributionsystem—”merchantpowerplants”
• Loadbalancingandemergencyback-upfeatures—ratedataveragecityelectricload(35– 40MW)
• Largethermalstorage(r.inphoto)bothwithCHPandwithwind/solarelectric
• Combinedinconjunctionwithcriticalfacilities,hospital,schools,publicworks(water/sewer/criticalfacilities)
• Beginwithnaturalgasenginesifnecessary,thenphaseinbio-gasoverten-yearperiod
• Note:CHPgasshouldbe80%- 90%efficient,nolessthatotherdisplacednaturalgassystems
• Afewchimneysversus1,000’sofchimneys
LemvigDenmarkBiogasCHP– GoodExample
FinancingandEconomicsFinancing(multiplesources)• GreenBonds(Emphasisonlocalbondbuyers)
• On-billutilityfinancing
• Carbonfees• Community/CooperativeProjectFinance
• HabitatforHumanity– Solar“Depot”Financing
• Consumerself-financing(cash&credit)
• PACEfinancing(propertyassessedcleanenergy),MichiganSaves..
• Contractor/projectdeveloperfinancing(solar,wind,mechanical,electrical,etc.)
• EnergyServiceCompanies(sharedsavings)
• Bankfinancing,constructionloans,mortgage,etc.
Revenues• 100%distributionandsaleofgreenelectricity– whatthecustomerswantandwillingtopayfor
• UtilitykW-hour“sales”tripled–earnmoneyonQUANITY!
• Carbonfeerevenues• On-billutilityfinancing(feesandinterest)revenues
• Community/Cooperativeprojectrevenues• Salesofexcesswindandsolartogridandneighboringutilities
• Technicalservices• Localmultipliereffects– keeping$$athome- 2Xmultiplier
MarginalCostofWindBeatsNaturalGas
$-
$0.020
$0.040
$0.060
$0.080
$0.100
$0.120
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
MarginalCostofBigWTG's$perkW-hourvs.PercentOutput
• Ataveragecapacityfactorof40%-50%MC=<4cents/kW-hour• OnawindynightMCapproaches2cents/kW-hour• Ifinstalledinthe“distributionsystem”grid,thereos noorlowtransmissionexpense• Iflocallyowned“merchantplant”MCvaluationapplies• Thelow-costwindelectricityvalueforheatingcanbeleveragedbyafactorof2+withheatpumps;out-competingnaturalgasat<2cents/kW-hour
DistributionGridHarmonization
• C.Gruenwald:“LinkandSync”–“VirtualBattery”
• Smiley:GreenRE-Heat
• BrattleGroup–GridHarmonization
SummaryTake-awayThoughts• Unlimitedsolarnetmetering,affectingutilityrevenues<1%• Carbonfeepositiveonpeak,negativeoffpeak,outcompetingnaturalgas,knockingnaturalgasoutofthemarket
• Utility“merchant”windpowerat2cents/kW-hourmarginalcostenergybeatingnaturalgas
• On-billfinancingandincentivesforsolar,storageandEV’s,lettingthemarketpickthewinners
• Tripleelectricsales,cuttingpriceswithquantity• Lowerenergycosts,fixedindefinitely• LocalGreenNewDeal:Muni’s(smallorlarge)canleadandshowhowitcanbedone• Itcanbedonebecauseithasbeendone;atleastinpart!• Takebestpartsfrommany– putthemtogetherinonegoodprogram• StudyExperienceofLeadingMuni’s
• AustinEnergy,Texas• GreenMountainPower• Burlington(VT)ElectricDepartment• SacramentoMunicipalUtilityDistrict