SOFTWARE TOOL FOR MODELLING MORTALITY INTENSITIES AND LIFE TABLES CONSTRUCTION B. Burcin 1, K. Hulíková Tesárková 1, D. Kománek 2, T. Kučera 1 Charles

SOFTWARE TOOL FOR MODELLING MORTALITY INTENSITIES AND LIFE TABLES CONSTRUCTION

B. Burcin1, K. Hulíková Tesárková1, D. Kománek2, T. Kučera1

Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science1Department of Demography and Geodemography2Centre for Information TechnologiesPrague, Czech Republic

PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA Web: deras.natur.cuni.czEmail: [email protected]

INTRODUCTION

DO YOU NEEDto calculate numerous life tables in one step?to smooth intensities of mortality?to extrapolate probabilities till the highest ages?to select among six mortality models?to compare them in text and graphical outputs?

THENDO TRY AND EXPERIENCE


INTRODUCTION

WHAT?DeRaS (Death Rates Simulations) is a new software application designed for an efficient life table construction under several detailed conditions defined by the user. This presentation briefly introduces the application, its basic features and main advantages.

WHO?DeRaS is useful for all who need to quickly and efficiently construct one, two, ten or even up to hundreds of life tables for more populations and/or who want to use different methods of mortality data smoothing and extrapolating.


INTRODUCTION

HOW?DeRaS offers six generally recognized mortality models – Gompertz and Gompertz-Makeham as two representatives of exponential functions, two logistic functions (Kannisto and Thatcher with constant) and two less frequently used models (Coale-Kisker, Heligman-Pollard). Model parameters are estimated by the iteratively reweighted (nonlinear) least squares method.

WHERE?DeRaS has its own web presentation (http://deras.natur.cuni.cz) keeping all necessary documentation at your disposal.


OPEN THE INPUT FILE AND DEFINE OUTPUT DIRECTORY

SELECT YEARS CHOSEN TO CALCULATE LIFE TABLES

SET AGES TO BE USED IN THE PARAMETER ESTIMATION AND THE AGE WHERE THE LIFE TABLE SHOULD END AT AS WELL

DERAS ALLOWS YOU TO CHOOSE AMONG SIX THE MOST COMMON PARAMETRIC FUNCTIONS FOR SMOOTHING AND EXTRAPOLATING MORTALITY INTENSITIES

DERAS APPLICATION CONSISTS OF TWO BASIC COMPONENTS: CONSOLE APPLICATION PROCESSING IN A CONSOLE WINDOW AND GRAPHICAL INTERFACE (FRONTEND )

DERAS OFFERS THE CONSTRUCTION OF COMPLETE OR ABRIDGED LIFE TABLES AND OUTPUTS INA "COMBINED" FORM WHERE RESULTS RELATED TO MORE MORTALITY MODELS ARE ALL CONTAINED IN ONE FILE

GRAPHICAL OUTPUTS IN A SIMPLE FORM SERVE FOR THE LIFE TABLE FUNCTIONS DESCRIPTION

ADVANCED FORM OF GRAPHICS ALLOWS COMPARING RESULTS BASED ON SELECTED MODEL FUNCTIONS IN ONE COMBINED CHART

STANDARDIZED INPUT FILE


INPUT FILE CONSISTS OF THREE DATA SECTIONS

1. NUMBER OF DEATHS BY SINGLE AGE GROUPS

2. MID-YEAR POPULATION BY SINGLE AGE GROUPS

3. TOTAL NUMBER OF LIVE BIRTHS

TEXT OUTPUT FILE


THIS IS THE EXAMPLE OF TEXT OUTPUT FILE

THE CALCULATED LIFE TABLE IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE OUTPUT SHEET ORIGINAL INPUT DATA

ARE REPEATED IN THE MIDDLE

ADDITIONAL USEFUL INFORMATION IS INSERTED ON THE RIGHT

BASIC CHART OUTPUTS


EXAMPLES OF GRAPHICAL OUTPUTS FOR SELECTED TABLE FUNCTIONS

BASIC CHART OUTPUTS



BASIC CHART OUTPUTS



BASIC CHART OUTPUTS



ADVANCED CHART OUTPUTS


ADVANCED GRAPHICAL OUTPUTS ALLOW COMPARING RESULTS BASED ON PROBABILITY OF DYING MODEL FUNCTIONS APPLICATION IN ONE CHART

FUTURE PLANS

WHAT?Implementation of additional smoothing and extrapolating models, using more statistical measures indicating the model quality, additional text and graphical outputs, etc.

FEEDBACKDo not hesitate to contact us with any comments, ideas or proposals for future development. We would really appreciate it!


FOR MORE INFORMATION GO TO HTTP://DERAS.NATUR.CUNI.CZ

OR CONTACT THE AUTHORSTHANK YOU!

CONTACT:

Olga Sivková

email: [email protected] (preferably), web: deras.natur.cuni.cz (contact form),phone: +420 604 327 366

Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science, Department of Demography and Geodemography, Albertov 6, 128 43 Prague 2, Czech Republic

Documents

SOFTWARE TOOL FOR MODELLING MORTALITY INTENSITIES AND LIFE TABLES CONSTRUCTION B. Burcin 1, K. Hulíková Tesárková 1, D. Kománek 2, T. Kučera 1 Charles