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Socio-Economic Aspects Relevant
to Climate Change in Egypt
Prepared by:
Hala Yousry
Prof. of Rural Sociology
Socio-Economic DivisionDesert Research Center
Nov. 2017
Socio- economic studies about Climate
Change could give the decision makers a
clear vision about the phenomena, its
causes and its effects on the short and
long run.
It also focus on the vulnerable communities
in order to set accurate action plans to
eliminate the severity of the problem and
improve lands productivity.
We can't solve problems by using
the same kind of thinking
we used when we created them
*****
Albert Einstein
Causes of Climate Change in Egypt:
The causes could be due to:Natural causes
Human influence: Human beings can act in anirresponsible and irrational manner as they might bepoorly managed and overexploitation of the naturalresources. Consequently, CO2 &CO high emissionrates which have a destructive effects on theenvironment.
Symptoms of Climate Change in Egypt
1- Less rain rates over the northern part of the country and along
the river Nile.
2- Higher temperature rates over the whole parts of the country.
3- Around one third of the human population in Egypt lives along
the coast. Sea level rise is likely to badly affect both coastal
agricultural lands and the livelihood security of coastal
communities.
4- Disappearance of range lands in northern western desert
areas.
5- Low land productivity and more of desertified lands.
6- Due to socio-economic and bad ecological conditions, there is high rate of illegal immigration to Europe.
7- Overpopulation catastrophe especially in rural areas may be considered as a way of compensation for poor families. They consider the child as a source of income generating.
Some debatable key questions
on Climate Change?1- Is the manhood the victim or the criminal to natural resources?
2- What does Climate Change mean anything to farmers and decision makers? Does it have the same meaning from their perceptions?
3- Why do we have to mainstream Climate Change within the National Strategy?
4- How will we convince policy makers/ takers with its severe impacts on social, economical and ecological levels to give it more weight?
5- From where can we start?
Climate Change
Local Participation
Unemployment
Gender Empowerment
ImmigrationAnd Migration
Increase ofFood Gap
Overpopulation
PovertyHealth
&Education
Impact of Climate Change and on Arab
CountriesThe economic consequences of inaction from climate change arehuge: it is estimated that for every 1degree C rise in averageglobal temperature, economic growth would drop by between 2-3%. The World Economic and Social Survey released by UN in2009 estimates the costs of mitigation and adaptation at 1% ofWorld Gross Product (WGP), which is small compared to thecost and risks of the impacts of climate change. If inaction is nottaken, or is delayed "by continuing in the present business-as-usual scenario, or making only marginal change, the permanentloss of projected (WGP) could be as high as 20%". Thedilemma is that the impacts of climate change will be mostacutely felt in developing countries, which posses the leastcapacity to cope and adapt, both technologically and
financially.
This makes technology transfer and appropriate finance packages crucial for any global agreement or effective action to deal with climate change.
Impact of Climate Change on Egypt’s
Economy:
As for Sea Level Raise (SLR) effect on the GDP,
Egypt's economy is by far the most vulnerable: for
(SLR) of 1 meter, more than 6% of its GDP is at risk,
which raises to more than 12% for an SLR of 3
meters.
When it comes to agriculture sector, Egypt will be
most impacted by SLR. More than 12% of Egypt best
agriculture lands in Nile Delta are at risk from SLR of
1 meter, and this figure rises dramatically to 25%
(SLR of 3 m) and even almost 35% (extreme SLR of
5 m).
The researcher had conducted a Study in
one of the most irrigated vulnerable
Area:Generally, the soils of the Nile Valley and Delta are affected by the following desertification measures which transform the fragile ecosystem into imbalance and lead to more progressive degradation of the cultivated lands:
- Sea water invasion into the cultivated lands
- The irrational utilization of agricultural lands
- The mismanagement of the agricultural lands which leads to the problems of water logging and salinization
- Soil pollution with chemical pesticide fertilizers,
medical waste and drainage housing
The Sample:
The study population was the farmers at the
most desertified area in Kafr El Sheikh
Governorate in the lower part near by the
Mediterranean Sea.
120 farmers contributed with their personal
perceptions in the study questionnaires.
The sample was taken from 15 villages.
Results and Discussion:Reasons for the increase of land productivity. A sum of 72
respondent addressed that there is an increasement in
their land productivity due to the following issues as
prioritized:
- Adding Chemical and organic fertilizers
- Usage of Agricultural machinery and laser instruments
- More effort in land services and agriculture
- The improvement in the quality of Seeds
- Usage of covered drainage
- Availability of irrigation water
- The increase of awareness in Agricultural new technology
Agriculture extinction services -
- Combating of land salinity problem
There were 12 respondents addressed that the land
productivity didn’t change over the last five years. And the
last category was 26 who addressed the decrease in their
land productivity due to:
Reasons for the decrease in land productivity:
- Shortage and low quality of irrigation water
- High prices of production and services
elements ( seeds, fertilizers, labor, pesticide)
- High land salinity due to shortage and low
quality of irrigation
- Shortage of Labor
- Usage of pesticide
Reasons of their perception of
desertification threats over their lands:
- Insufficient irrigation water
- Lack of land conservation
- Due to bad quality irrigated water
- Low income
- Shortage of chemical fertilizers and Gypsum
- Shortage of Agriculture labor
- Lack of sufficient and effective drainage network
- The pollution of irrigated water
- Other reasons such as: low productive soils, high
prices of all the production elements, bad farm
management, bad crop pattern, urban encroachment
and lack of pesticide.
Reasons of their perception of desertification
threats over their lands (cont’d):
- Keeping up with land services
- Adding organic and chemical fertilizers
- Irrigation regularity
- Availability of effective drainage
- Good land quality
- Availability of soft fund to cover essential expenses
for land improvement
- Usage of Agriculture machinery
- Usage of modern irrigation system
- Other reasons such as: skilled labor, the increase of
awareness, strong will of continue in their lands, Using
good seeds and extension agencies efforts
Farmers' awareness of Reasons
about the desertification :
- Excessive irrigation
- Land salinity problem
- Using chemical fertilizers and pesticide
- Air temperature has an effect on land deterioration
- Mismanagement on farms
- Good crop pattern may improve land characteristics
- Drainage may affect the crop quality production
- Urban encroachment
- Abundant of the cultivated lands
- Over population is a cause of desertification
Farmers’ Awareness of the Desertification
Economical Impacts:- Lower land productivity
- Lower agriculture income
- More expenditure on drainage and covered drainage
- More expenditure on adding Gypsum to improve the
soil characteristics
- Less expenditure on the household
- Bad crop yield after Rice
- Land deterioration over years
- Tendency for better utilization for irrigated water
- Tendency for abundant of the cultivated lands
- Transforming Agriculture land to fish farms
- Increase of poverty rates among farmers
- Looking for new methods to eliminate land deterioration
Awareness of the Social Impacts of Climate
Change and Desertification:
- In case of land deterioration, there is a possibility
of immigration.
- In case of land deterioration, insecurity feeling will
come up.
- It’s impossible to improve land conditions.
- In case of tremendous production loss, changing
proficiency is considerable.
- In case of production loss, that may affect
household income.
- Low land productivity leads to have more children as a way of compensation
- The belief of independent efforts to improve land productivity
- Collective work ends with good results
- In case of land severe deterioration, children might be taken out of their schools
- In case of funds needed to improve land productivity and health issues, priority goes to land
Recommendations:1- Rural Advisory Service (RAS) should be the approach of solving problems and eliminating desertification effects.
2- Holistic approach should be taken in consideration when setting a plan or programs to combat desertification.
3-National and Regional participatory planning is the effective and realistic key to stop land deterioration, improve its characteristics and increase crop yield.
4- Good water quality should be provided to farmers for healthy foods, crops and fish production.
5- Conducting capacity building programs for better management are really needed to increase alertness about desertification and recommend other alternatives rather than the damaging methods.
