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SOCIETY,CYBERSPACEANDTHEFUTURE

HowCanNewInteractiveCommunicationTechnologyEnhanceHarmoniousandFunctionalCommunitiesatallScalesWorldwide?

ReportofanExploratoryAspenWorkshopPreparedby:

BruceMurrayCaliforniaInstituteofTechnology

bcm@mars1.gps.caltech.edu

February,1995

Abstract

Rapidgrowthinpopulationandconsumptionwillplaceunprecedentedstressesonnaturalresources,ontheglobalenvironment,andoncurrenteconomicandpoliticalsystemsthroughthenextcentury.Stable,harmoniouscommunitieswillbeessentialfordispersedleadershipatallscalesastraditionalcommandtypepoliticalandofeconomicstructuresdiminishinsignificance.Newinteractivecommunicationstechnologycanandmustplayanessentialroleinconnectingindividualswithindiverse,dispersedcommunities.However,aswithpreviousnewtechnologicaldevelopmentsincommunications,negativeeffectsonthestabilityandfunctionalityofcommunitiesarealsolatent.Inthisreport,wevisualizebothpotentiallypositiveandnegativeeffectsoncommunitiesandidentifyspecificneartermactionsandpolicieswhichcanenhancebroad,informedparticipationincontentrichnetworksinthefuture.

FEEDBACKFORMATENDOFREPORT

1. INTRODUCTION

TheforbiddingchallengeofthenextCenturyloomsoverthePresent.Rapidgrowthinpopulationandconsumptionwillplaceunprecedentedstressesonnaturalresources,ontheglobalenvironment,andoncurrenteconomicandpoliticalsystems.Theoutcomeofthisfatefulconfrontationbetweenhumankind'sinexorablegrowthandtheplanet'sfinitecarryingcapacitywillultimatelydependonthebehaviorofbillionsofdiverseindividuals,whodevelopinandidentifywithanenormousrangeofcommunities.

Communicationstechnologyhasprogressivelyextendedindividualawarenessbeyondthechild'sfacetofacecommunitysinceatleastGutenburg.Books,newspapers,transistorradios,cassetteplayers,andvideohaveeachcontributedtomajorhistoricalchange.Somenewcommunicationtechnologieslikemagazinesinthelate19thandfirsthalfofthe20thCenturyhaveproventobeanintegratingforcesocially.Some,likebroadcastvideo,haveunderminedtraditionalcommunitiesmorethantheyhavehelpeddevelop

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newfunctionalcommunitiesbasedonsharedvaluesandmutualobligations.

Newinteractiveelectroniccommunicationsduringtheearlydecadesofthe21stCenturywillstronglyimpactindividualsandgroups,perhapsasprofoundlyasbroadcastradioandvideoshapedthe20thCentury.Inexpensiveaccesstoeasytouse,twoway,contentrichnetworksarelikelytoattractenormousparticipation,atleastinthedevelopedregionsoftheworld.Thus,itisimportantforthosetryingtofashionpoliciesandactionsleadingtosustainableandenlightenedconditionsthroughthenextcenturytoenvisionhowthetransitionfromonewayelectronicmasscommunicationstointeractiveandnetworkedcommunicationsmayimpactcommunitiesofallkindsandthusmodifythebasisofbehaviorandgovernanceinthecenturyahead.

ThatwastheobjectiveofasmallexploratoryworkshopsponsoredbytheMarkleFoundationofNewYorkCityandhostedbyTheAspenInstituteCommunicationandSocietyProgramatAspen,August2729,1994.TheparticipantsarelistedinAppendixA.Herewepresentabriefsummaryofthegeneralviewsthatemerged.

2. COMMUNITYANDCOMMUNICATION

2.1TheNatureofCommunity.

JohnGardnerhassingledouttheunifyingnotionof"community"asthekeytoviewingsocialandindividualbehaviorgenerally*.Atthemostbasiclevel,membersofanycommunityarefundamentallyboundbysharedvaluesandasenseofmutualresponsibility.Facetofacecommunities(thefamily,extendedfamily,school,neighborhood)arewhereindividualsfirstlearnthesesharedvaluesandmutualobligations.Asindividualsmaturetheyidentifytovaryingextentswithlarger,dispersedcommunitiesprofessionalandeconomic,recreationalandsports,ethnicandreligious,politicalandgeographic,socialand"moral".However,forcommunitiestobeharmoniousexternallyaswellasinternallytheymustprovidenotonlyasenseofbelongingandwholenessfortheirmembers,butincorporateandtoleratediversityaswell.Thisintrinsictensionbetweenbondinginternallyandasenseofseparatenessevenhostilityexternallyisauniversalattributeofcommunity!

2.2WorldwideObsolescenceofHierarchical,CommandInstitutionshascharacterizedthesecondhalfofthe20thCentury.TheabruptcollapseoftheSovietUnionwasthemostdramaticexampleofthediminishingpowerofcentralgovernmentsworldwidebut,similarpatternsareprevalentintheUS,WesternEurope,China,Africa,CentralAmerica,Japan.Theprevailingglobaltrendnowisstronglytowarddispersionofauthorityandresponsibilitydownwardandoutwardwiththeneedforincreasedtwowaycommunication,asmanifestedbyprivatizationoftraditionalgovernmentfunctions,downsizingoflargecorporations,andgrowthofsmallenterprisesworldwide.

2.3Dispersed,SelforganizingLeadershiponanUnprecedentedScaleisrequiredinthisemergingpostColdWarworld.Thereisthenecessitytogobeyondjustinteractingtoenhancingpositive

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relationshipsandproblemsolving.Communitiesmustoffermembersbondingbeyondsharedmaterialisticneeds(theymustincorporatesubjectivevalues.Thereisauniquelymodernneedtoreinventcommunitywitheachgeneration_theconsequenceoftheunprecedentedrateofsocialandeconomicchangedrivenbyacceleratingtechnologicalchange.

2.4ConflictResolutionLeadersneedtoreceivefeedbackfromcommunitymembers.Hence,theimportanceofinteractivecommunications.Interactivelinksareneededtobindcommunitieslargeandsmall,nearbyandremote,familiarandstrange.Therearesuccessfulexamplesofconflictresolutionthroughinteractivefacetofacecommunication,especiallyatthecitylevel,butalsoinmoredispersedcommunities.Thepotentialofinteractivenetworkstoresolveortoexacerbateconflictneedstobebetterpublicizedandunderstood.

2.5NewInteractiveCommunicationTechnology(NICTfortherestofthisreport)canhelpcommunitiestofunctionbetterbyfacilitatingdispersedleadershipinthepostCommandEra.Butitalsocanerodeacommunity'sholdonmemberswhowillbecomemorecapableofinteractingremotelywithother,competitivecommunities.Likenearlyallnewtechnologiesitoffershopeandproblemssimultaneously.Ourgoalhereistohelpidentifythesepotentialbenefitsandliabilities,andtodelineateneartermactionsandpoliciesthatwilltendtoshiftthebalancetowardbenefits.First,however,wemustconsidertheemergingnatureofNICT.

3. ENABLINGTECHNOLOGICALTRENDS

Thenewinteractivetechnologyburstinguponthesceneinindustrializedcountriesistheresultoftheconfluenceofdiversetechnicaldevelopments.HerewesummarizethemostimportanttrendswhichwebelieveforeshadowaverybroadanddeeppenetrationofNICT.

3.1Accesstoanduseofnetsforinformationandserviceswillbefueledbyenormousincreasesineaseofuseandaffordability:

Continuedcostreductionincomputingandcommunicationcapabilitiesisuniversallyexpectedbyproducersandusersalike.Localtoglobalaccesstonetsisalreadydrawingmajorcorporateinvestment,includingtheprospectofuniversalwirelessconnectivitythroughverylargenumbersoflowcost,lowaltitudesatelliterelaylinksaccessibleevenbyhandhelddevices.Easierusebyagrowingnumberofdiverseindividualuserswillbeenhancedasnetworksincorporateautomaticlanguagetranslation,andasspeechsynthesisandrecognitionsimplifytheuserinterface.Anincreasinglevelofindividualcapabilityworldwideduetogrowingeducationandexperiencewillcontinuallyexpandthepotentialuserbase.TherecentavailabilityofcolorgraphicsonInternetwithMosaicandNetscape,andtheprospectofvideo,highlighthowrapidlyuserinterfacesfornetworksareevolvingtofullyengageusers.Ultimately,virtualrealitycanbeexpectedtobecommonlyincludedinuserinterfacewithnetworks.

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TheprospectivemergingofinteractiveTV,phonepadservices,andvirtualrealitywithcableandtelephonenetworkstoprovideentertainmentandahostofserviceshasbecomethebasisofmajorevolutionoftheentirecommunicationsandmediaindustries.

3.2Selforganizingpropertiesofnetusershasbeenexhibitedmostvividlyintheexplosive,bottomupgrowthofInternet.Althoughoriginallydrivenbyahighlyexpertcoreofprofessionallyinvolvedcomputerusers,thecurrentgrowthreachesfarbeyondsuchoriginsandindicatesthatselforganizingpatternsofunsophisticateduserswillgrowrapidlyasmorecapableandeasiertouseaccessbecomescommonplace.

3.3Themotivationforwidespreaduseofthe"Net"willderivefrom:Individualempowerment,"private"2waycommunication,multipoint,anonymity,multiplepersonalities,virtualpersonalities.Increasingavailabilityofattractiveandaffordableservices,individuallyselectable,notdrivensomuchbyleastcommondenominatortastesasarebroadcastTVandradio.Emergenceofnewbenefitsforbothcustomersandsuppliersofgoodsandservicesalike,suchasrecordgeneratingcapabilityoftransactions,andcooperativerelationshipswithpotentialconsumerstoreceiverelevantcomparativeproductinformationwheninterestedincontrasttopresentinefficientuseofmassmediatoreachatinyfractionofmassaudiencewhoareactuallypotentialcustomers.

4. PRIMARYCONSEQUENCES

4.1NICTenhanceshorizontalrelationshipsandinstitutions,oftenattheexpenseofverticallyorganizedendeavors.Thistendencyreinforcesthebroadertrendtowardorganizationaldownsizingandflatteningwhichisalreadyacceleratingindevelopedlocalesandregions.Italsomighthelpempowervillagesinthefuture,wheremostoftheworld'speoplesstilllive,andperhapshelpstemthedevastatingmassmigrationfromthecountrysidetourbansprawlthatloomsinthecomingdecades.

4.2NICTgenerallywillenhancetheoperationofmarketsandparticipationofindividualsandgroupsingovernance.However,italsofacilitatesinstantaneousassessmentofopinions,whichmayleadarepresentativegoverningsystemtobesodrivenbyshorttermmassopinionsastobecomeincapableofsustainedgovernance.ARepresentativeDemocracy,whichtraditionallyincorporatedtotimeforleadersandcitizensaliketoevolveattitudesandcompromise,maynotsurviveinthefaceofinstantpollingandpublicizingofthoseinstantopinions."WholenessincorporatingDiversity"maybedifficulttosustaininaneraofinstantaneousopiniongenerationandtallying.

4.3Theroleandstructureofsocietal"intermediaries"willevolverapidly.NICTwillenableindividualsandgroupstobypassexistingsourcesof"news"andinformation,aswellasestablishedcontrolsonaccess,e.g.900telephonenumbers,etc.Newintermediarieswillarisetoauthenticate"information"andtofacilitateaccessanduse.Whowillplaythiskeypoliticalandsocialroleinthefuture?

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5. POTENTIALOBSTACLES

Anynewtechnologyusuallythreatensthepreviousinfrastructureinsomeway.Newcapitalinvestmentisusuallyrequiredaswell.SothereareinevitablyinstitutionalandotherobstaclestotheintroductionofNICT.Inaddition,theenormouspotentialimpactofNICTonbeliefsandactionswillinevitablyleadtoattemptstocontrolorsubvertit.SomeofthepossibleobstaclestoNICTweforeseeare:

5.1Consolidationofprovidersofaccessandservices,resultingfromnormalmarketforces,couldleadtopricebarrierstoaccess,monopolisticcontrolofaccess,andeventosupplysidefilteringandmanipulation.Thus,thepossibilitycannotbeentirelyignoredofanInternet"wasteland"arisinganalogouslytohowafewchannelsofblackandwhitebroadcasttelevisiononceseemedtopromiseawidelyavailableandaffordablesourceofinformationbutinsteadevolvedintomanytensofcolorchannelscompletelydominated(andcorrupted)byentertainmentneeds.

5.2WillNetanarchyleadtoNetcontrol?Howcandiverseanddecentralizeduserswhonevermeetfacetofaceincorporatemutualobligationwithsharedgoalsandthusbecomeacontinuingcommunity?Ifthiscannotbemaintainedonavoluntary,communalbasis(continuingthebottomupapproachofInternet)thereinevitablywillbeacallfortopdowncontrol.

5.3Tendencyofpoliticalandreligiousauthoritytoseekcontrolofsuchapowerfulnewmeansofhumandiscourseandinteractionislikely.Forexample,willtherebe:

Attemptstocontrolreceivers?.Thispracticemaybeunworkable,likeFaxmachinesinChina."Moral"prohibitionsfromlisteningand,especially,frominteracting?ThatapproachmaybetriedinFundamentalreligiouscommunities,e.g.ShiiteMoslems.

5.4InformationOverloadandSaturationcouldbecomethemostsignificantbarriertoutilizingthepotentialoftheNetforallbutthemostsophisticatedusers.Willsoftware"agents"and"filters"reallyempowerordinaryindividualsandsmallgroupstonavigatethevastoceanofinformation,trivia,misinformation?

5.5EquityIssues.Lackofsophistication,expertise,andcapitalinthecountryside,aswellaswithintheurbanunderclass,couldleadto:

Technicalinterferenceasamanifestationofangeranddisempowerment.Oppositiontogovernmentfundingonthebasisofunfairnessandunequalaccessandpreparation.

6. NEARTERMDESIRABLEACTIONS

6.1EncouragesocietalactivitiesthatcanaccelerategrowthandbroaduseofNIAC,suchasEncouraginginexpensiveanduserfriendlyconnectivityforschoolssothatskillsaredevelopedearly

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andnaturally.MandatingandfundingNIACingovernmentservicesandoperations.Creatingadditionalprivateincentives,suchasaccelerateddepreciationforinvestmentinNIAC.Mandatingandencouragingseparationofownershipofentitiesinvolvedwithcontentproductionfromthosethatprovideaccess.Enhancingtheeducationofpotentialusersofallagesleadingtoincreasedabilitytoselect,use,andinterpretwhattheycanaccessontheNet.

6.2DevelopMeanstoEnhanceParticipationofCountrysideandUrbanUnderclassExpandpositivecityexperiencewithinteractivecommunicationtocountrysidethroughsubsidizeddemonstrationlinks.Increasetheabilityofcountrysideandurbancenterstocompeteinuseofrefswithcitydwellersthroughsubsidizedaccessandtraining.Makemorecredibletheoftpromisedbenefitsoftelecommutingandtheabilitytoworkfromruralandinnercitylocationsthroughnetworking.Encouragelocalownershipofaccesssystemsandencouragelocalinvolvementinsomecontentproduction.Developincentivestomitigatepossiblenegativereactionbydevelopingpeoplesandregionstoperceived"cyberneticcolonialism",suchasearly,subsidizedinvolvementofpoorerregions.

7. NEXTSTEPS

Thepurposeofthesmall,informalAspenconferencewastoexplorehownewinteractivecommunicationswerelikelytoaffecthumanbehaviorinthecomingcentury.Thisisausefulwaytoengagepartofthelargerproblemofcollectivevisualizationoffuturepossibilitiesandthedevelopingofconsensusforneartermmoderatingactions.Fromthepointofviewoftheparticipants,theAspenconferencewasquitesuccessfulinbetterdefiningthetopicsandtheissues.Indeed,somewellfocussedconferencesstartwithawelldefined"termsofreference".Inourexploratorycase,weweredelightedtoendwithsuchwhichbecamethebasisofthisreport.

Theultimateobjectiveofthiskindofworkistocatalyzevisualizationofthefuture,especiallyconcerningwelldefinedtechnologicalthemeslikeinteractivecommunication.Suchwidespreadvisualizationcanstimulateconstructiveresponsesbytheverycommunitieswealludetoinourreportgovernmental,private,andnonprofitatlocal,national,regional,internationalscales.

Asfarasthedirectionnowfortheeffortreportedhere,itisdesirabletobroadenthedialogueanddiscussionandtoimproveandextendtheanalysis.Secondly,itisimportanttogatherrelevant,factualinformation.Forexample,arethereexamplesofinteractiononelectronicnetworksthathavebeenimportantinconflictresolutionandinbuildingcommunity?Wemustalsoaskiftheyhavehadtheoppositeeffect.Thus,wearecirculatingthisreportforcomment.

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AnimmediateapproachbyMurraywillbetomakethisreportavailableontheWorldWideWebandsolicitdiscussionofandinputstoitthroughInternet,especiallyfactualcurrentandpastexamplesthatmayberelevanttoourprojections.

Theresultingimprovedanalysis,withricherdetails,thencanformthebasisofotherkindsofinteractionsinothermedia.

FEEDBACKFORM

APPENDIXA.PARTICIPANTS

CONFERENCEON"THEIMPACTOFINTERACTIVECOMMUNICATIONSONFUTUREATTITUDESANDBEHAVIORS"

Aspen,Colorado

August2629,1994

Ms.EdithBjornsonProgramOfficerTheJohnandMaryR.MarkleFoundation75RockefellerPlazaSuite1800NewYork,NY100196908

Dr.DavidBrin801CalleSantaCruzEncinitas,CA920249661

Dr.AnnieCohenSolal421HudsonStreetApt.603NewYork,NY10014

Ms.EstherDysonPresidentEDventureHoldings,Inc.104FifthAvenue20thFloorNewYork,NY10011

Mr.CharlesFirestoneDirectorTheAspenInstitute

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CommunicationandSocietyProgram1333NewHampshireSuite1070Washington,DC20036

Dr.JohnGaddisOhioUniversityBrownHouse2UniversityTerraceAthens,OH457012979

Dr.JohnGardnerGraduateSchoolofBusinessRoomL281StanfordUniversityStanford,CA943055015

Dr.AllenHammondWorldResourcesInstitute1709NewYorkAvenue,NWSuite700Washington,DC20006

Dr.LloydMorrisettPresidentTheJohnandMaryR.MarkleFoundation75RockefellerPlazaSuite1800NewYork,NY100196908

Dr.BruceMurrayCaliforniaInstituteofTechnologyDivisionofGeologicalandPlanetarySciences17025Pasadena,CA91125

ProfessorMonroePriceCardozoSchoolofLaw555thAvenueRoom527NewYork,NY10003

*See"BuildingCommunity",publishedbyIndependentSector,Washington,DC,1991,and"OnLeadership",TheFreePress,NewYork,1990(Chapter11).2/24/94