32
1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 2-2, 201, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi Fujita, Director of Social Environmental Systems Research Center, NIES, Japan Alliance Professor of Nagoya University (1) Integrative modelling research for low carbon society Multi scale technology and policy simulation system (2) Interactive monitoring and regional evaluation system research for Co design or integrative simulation PREPARED by Dr. Toshihiko Masui, Dr. Minoru Fujii Dr.Shuichi Ashina, Dr. Kei Gomi, Dr. Takuya Togawa

Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

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Page 1: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

1

Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design

Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand

Prof. Tsuyoshi Fujita,Director of Social Environmental Systems Research Center,

NIES, JapanAlliance Professor of Nagoya University

(1) Integrative modelling research for low carbon societyMulti scale technology and policy simulation system

(2) Interactive monitoring and regional evaluation system research for Co design or integrative simulation

PREPARED byDr. Toshihiko Masui, Dr. Minoru Fujii Dr.Shuichi Ashina, Dr. Kei Gomi, Dr. Takuya Togawa

Page 2: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

2

Decision Planning forDecision Planning forStakeholders

Integrative Model Application toward Low Carbon Society by NIES K.Gomi(2015)

Low carbon planning

Citizen participation

Local and Regional Low Carbon Plans

Scenario design Scenario design revision from Feed back from Stakeholder Meetings

AIM Model

Alternative technologies and policies from Local Characteristics

Future ScenariosLife IndustryIndustry Planning Energy

Energy Model

crftech r (1 r)dpryrtech

(1 r)dpryrtech 1

COSTfuel,tech (t) ucfueltech (t)FUELtech(t)

FUELtech(t) 1tech (t)

Osrv,tech (t,m, hr)m,hr

1Fdc,b (t,m, hr) Sb,tech(t,m, hr)denom

Population Model

pds

=( (1- ))

outin

pdspds

LNtotLHD AAWH DER

aggWRworkPoptotPOP _/__

pds

( )inin

pdspds

LNtotLHD AAWH DER

Transportation, ,

6, , 365 (1/ 10 )

ptm age hht age tdtd age hht

td ptm td ptm

PTD Pop Ptg

Pts Ptad

,

6, , (1 /10 )

ftm pss pss tdpss td

td ftm td ftm

FTD PD Ftg

Fts Ftad

Local Economy

X Ainv(I-(I-Mr)F+Ex)

1Ainv Imat 1 IMR Amat( )

_ _inin inoutIncome LNtot WagePP LNtot

WperL inout POP tot SSget

Policy OptionsMUL

et et etx IMP2 f f IMP1 f

(0.5), 1 1 , 1 1 1et et et et et et etimp1 f l b f

, 2, 1 2 1

(1) (0)1 , 2 2, 3 3, 1 2 1

30.5

MULet et et et et

MULet et et et et et et et et

et

imp2 f f

b l a l f f

Land UseModel

,lu lup lulup

Area LUCM

, ,_lup lu lup lulupLUCM Area prev LCC

,,

, lup,lulog minlup lu

lup lulup lu

LCCRLCC

RLCC

,,, / crp croplcrp croplcrp cropland crpHA DP CRPS YLD

Page 3: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

Contribution to Climate Policy in Japan

▲8%

▲19%▲25%

▲15%

▲25%▲31%

▲17%

▲27%▲33%

▲20%

▲30%▲35%

1,26

1 1,35

1

1,25

6 1,42

7

1,15

6

1,02

5

952 1,

349

1,07

4

943

874 1,

324

1,04

6

917

849 1,29

4

1,01

3

886

820

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

0% 15% 20% 25%

90 05 10 2030

温室効

果ガス排

出量

(百万トン

CO

2)

GHG emissions in 2030, Low growth case

GH

G e

mis

sion

(MtC

O2)

Fixe

dLo

wM

iddl

eH

igh

Fixe

dLo

wM

iddl

eH

igh

Fixe

dLo

wM

iddl

eH

igh

Fixe

dLo

wM

iddl

eH

igh

Non EnergyEnergyTransportCommercialResidentialIndustry

mitigation optionsshare of nuclear

3

Page 4: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

International Cooperation toward Low Carbon Society

China KoreaUSA

Japan

ThilandMalaysiaIndonesia

EU

Japan-UK Joint Project on LCS

UK

India

LCS-RNet: endorsed by

G8EMM

LCS study in Japan

Promote researches on

Asia LCS

2006, 2007, 2008

・Participation in international model

comparison on mitigation potential

LCS model building capacity workshop, Organized by TGO,

SIIT-TU, JGSEE, NIES, at Bangkok, 2010

The 18th AIM International

Workshop, 2012AIM Training Workshop at NIES, 2013

4

Page 5: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

5

New Challenges for Modelling and Monitoring ResearchNew Challenges for Modelling and Monitoring ResearchResearch challenge to compile innovative modelling and monitoring approach

Long Term

Integrated Model for

Future VisionNormative Targets by

General Equilibrium

Model

Future Targets

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2 005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO2

emis

sion

s (M

tCO

2)

Agriculture, F orestry and FishingTransport, EnergyTransport, FreightTransport, PassengerCommercialResidentialOther ManufacturingConstructionMachineryNon-Ferrous MetalsOther Non-M etallic MineralsGlass ProductsOther Chemical ProductsTextiles, Wearing Apparel and LeatherFood Product, Beverage and TobaccoPaper, Pulp and PrintingPetrochemicalsCementIron and stealElectricity and Heat ProductionEnergy Conversion

Back Casting

環境

負荷 BaU

Integrative ApproachInteractive ApproachInnovative Approach

Page 6: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

6

Low Carbon District Design Models

Spatial Policy/ Tech. Process Packages

Development of Regional Integrated Models (Regional AIM) and Spatial Planning Model to design sustainable regions and cities

Design of Vision and Road Map for National Scale

Low Carbon Industrial System

Local Heat/Energy Management

National End Use Model

*CGE model National Targets

Analysis for Province ScaleEndUse

Model

FukushimaCGE

ModelFukushima

TargetsLow Carbon Urban Design Model

Planning for Local ScaleKabupaten CotaKecamatan KelurahanSnap

Shot Models

Policy Support

Tools

Local Targets

Strategic Spatial Zoning System

Social Monitoring System & Project Data Buildings Industries Life Style

Regional Parame-

ters

*Computational General Equilibrium

Integrated Model (AIM)

FukushimaR. Maps

National Road Maps

Forestry Eco System Service Model

Page 7: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

Waste

Tokyo Metropolitan

Region

Locally suitable env. •Locally suitable env. measures

•Compact land-use

• Urban &

env. policy options• U

rban & env. technology options

Land Use and Transport Model

Land Use and Transport Model

Resource Recycling Model

Resource Recycling Model

Building Stock Management Model

Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model

Env. Technology Assessment Model

Local Energy Model

Local Energy Model

Heat IslandModel

Heat IslandModel

TransportBuilding

Heat env.

Energy supply & demandEconomic impact

Models

Scenarios(2020, 2030, 2050)

Effect of env. measuresEffect of env. measures• Convenient

transport• Economic impact

• Energy saving & LCS• 3R• Heat island mitigation

Future macro-fram

e(Population, industry, m

aterial production, etc.)

Environmental Measures Analysis in Tokyo Metropolitan Region

Local EnergySystem

7

Page 8: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

Primary application case in Tokyo region, Japan

Socio-economics

Resource Energy

Infrastructure, technology, land use

Waste heat potential

Heat demand

2010 2020Waste generation

IS analysis

Outside: demandInner: supply potential

Analyze and Predict future resource,energy and waste condition.

Help to infrastructure analysis, planningand future technology projection.

An application case in Tokyo region (macro to spatial scale). Regional condition, resource and energy circulation, and future industrial and urban symbiosis are analyzed.

Population2010 2020 Facilities

Cost simulation

Supply-demand match

Cost effective region

IS design/implementation Heat

Resource

Low-carbon technologies

Analyze and plan future socio-economicchange, e.g. pop, GDP, industries.

8

Page 9: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

Output of Local Energy ModelProjected energy demand by sector and by service

2050, total energy demand

2014 2050Residential Commercial Residential Commercial

Power 58.4 238.7 47.9 248.2 Cooling 95.2 698.3 78.2 726.2 Heating 90.2 311.9 74.0 324.4

Hot-water 255.2 10.1 209.5 10.5 Sub-total 499.0 1258.9 409.6 1309.3

Total 1758.0 1718.9

2014, Total energy demand

Total energy demand in Tokyo Metropolitan Region (PJ/year)

9

Kei GOMI, Shuichi ASHINA, Tsuyoshi FUJITA, Toshihiko MASUI (2015): Development Of A Methodology For Regional Future Scenarios Considering Interaction Of Industry And Population And Application In So-ma Region In Fukushima Prefecture Journal of JSCE (Accepted) (In Japanese)

Page 10: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

Time-horizon design for technology assessment models

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Long-term target of the region[Demography, employment, town-making, low-carbon, etc]

Gap against BaU

Short term:Pioneering point development project

•Town-planning with local energy

•A show-case of low-carbon system

•Economic impact in several years

Middle term:Cluster development

•Industrial ecology by strategic locations

•Intensive local energy use with IT facilities

•Industrial development centered by local energy business creates employment (~ 3000)

•Compact clusters of residents, commerce and industries

•Convenient transport•Creating employment (~1000) and enhance settlement

With future targets of demography, economy, and environment in the region, the most suitable technology is chosen in short, mid, and long term. Structure of land use and related industries are describe as well.

10

Long-term:Urban-Industry-Agriculture

Complex

Page 11: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

50019

95年

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

CO2E

mis

sion

[kt-

CO2]

Ener

gy C

onsu

mpt

ion[

TJ] 太陽熱

地域熱(発電所排熱)

地域熱(熱電併給)

地産電力(熱電併給)

地産電力(太陽光)

系統電力

バイオマス

都市ガス

LPガス

石油

石炭

CO2

Solar HeatDistrict HeatingCogenerationRegional PowerSolar PowerPower LinkBiomassTown GasGas Cylinder(LP)PetroleumCoalCO2

Macro Scope Technology Assessment for Local Government

Assessment for Suitable Technology Assessment for the Low Carbon Future (80% Reduction in 2050 from 1990) in Shinchi Town of Fukushima

11

Page 12: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

Future Scenario Simulation for Fukushima Shinchi Township ; BAU Recovery Scenario

LNG Gas Pipeline

Urban areaIndustrial area0 1 20.5

km

12

Page 13: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

Future Scenario Simulation for Fukushima Shinchi Township ; Green Growth Scenario

Electricity

Heat DistributionCooling PipelineLNG Gas pipeline

Residential AreaIndustrial AreaAgricultural Area

0 1 20.5

km

13

Page 14: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Estimation of Alternative Future Recovery Scenarios

Urban

Industry野菜工場

[Mt-

CO2/

年]

50%減

Quantification of Impacts and Costs

Effects of Local Energy M

anagement

Alternative Spatial Scenario

14

Estimation of CO2 Emission

Urban Agri-cuilt.

+Green Growth

BAU

+Compact City

Green growth can double the Carbon Efficiency

Industry

Page 15: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

【Innovativeness】①Local Energy System to Utilize LNG Plant②Mixed use planning to Realize Optimal Demand Mix、③Demand Management by ICT or IOT)【JAPEX, Keiyo Gas Plant,NEC】

Vege Plants 3-10ha

温浴施設

Smart City Frontier Project for Fukushima Recovery→Subsidization by METI and MOEJ

15

Houses Houses

LNG Plant

Retail Shops

Apartments

熱導管情報通信電気

CO2供給

スマートメーター

CO2

サイネージ

サイネージ

City Hall

サイネージ

DRイベント参加状況の確認

デマンドレスポンス信号

BEMS※装置

Local Energy Center

発電機蓄熱装置

CEMS ※

※ BEMS/CEMS:Building / Community Energy Management System

タブレットやPCから電力や熱の使用量をチェック、需要の制御

Page 16: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

③Project Design

②Spatial-scopeLand use zoning /network design

・ land use distribution patterns

・ local energy network・location of core

developments

①Macro-scope・ population,

industries

・ core developments

・ energy locality

Alternative future vision

▪ zoning and regulation

▪ district planning

▪ key industries

Core projects for revitalization

試算の結果例 (域内総生産)

なりゆきシナリオ

LNG立地シナリオ

産業振興シナリオ

環境産業共生シナリオ

Feasibility Study

Future frame

16

2. Future technology and policy system analysis for eco-cities

Page 17: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

17

Down Scaling of the Social Model

as an Innovative Approach 1

Page 18: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

18

Social Monitoring and Modelling

as an Innovative Approach 2

Page 19: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

19

Innovative Modelling and Monitoring Research ProjectInnovative Modelling and Monitoring Research Project

Long TermShort Term

Integrated Model for

Future VisionNormative Targets by

General Equilibrium

Model

Technology and policy Solution

Design Adapting to Local

CharacteristicsFuture Targets

Low Carbon Solutions on

Local Contents

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2 005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO2

emis

sion

s (M

tCO

2)

Agriculture, F orestry and FishingTransport, EnergyTransport, FreightTransport, PassengerCommercialResidentialOther ManufacturingConstructionMachineryNon-Ferrous MetalsOther Non-M etallic MineralsGlass ProductsOther Chemical ProductsTextiles, Wearing Apparel and LeatherFood Product, Beverage and TobaccoPaper, Pulp and PrintingPetrochemicalsCementIron and stealElectricity and Heat ProductionEnergy Conversion

Back Casting

Envi

ronm

enta

l loa

d

BaU

・・・

Present

Eco-society Monitoring

System

Page 20: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

20

Smart Eco-Monitoring System for Low carbon Society 2014-Innovation

methaneincineration

CenterSmart Recycle Center

発電・熱量

Energy demand information

High value

substitutive

Operation information

Energy and consumption demand control system

for urban sectors

Demand

Smart industrial complex supported by synergetic

information network among industries

Urban and Regional symbiosis

Urban Waste

Waste and material

Energy

complexSmart industrial

complexLocal

symbiosis

Smart community

Local energy supply and demand

Smart ICT network will promote and complement the synergetic network functions among stakeholders

Information support for optimizing local and regional material and energy

circularization

Power plant

Steel

Cement

Chemical

気象情報発電量予測

By-product information

Energy demand response

Renewabl

energy

Renewable

energy

Local Data Local Data Collection

Center

Page 21: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

2015

Sector Number of facilities

Monitoring Start

Office Building

2 2015/03

Households 4 201503

CommercialArea

2 (café/ hotel) 201503 21

2016

Social Monitoring Research in Bogor City

Sector Number of facilities

Number of point

Governmentbuilding

3 30

Household 3 10

Shopping Mall 1 10

Page 22: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

Time series analysis in Office Building case

Lebaran

Ele

ctri

city

[kw

]Tr

end [

kw]

Sea

sonal

[kw

] Res

idual

[kw

]

No Seasonal variation of electricity

consumption

Electricity consumption is increasing on business

day

ServerElectricity

consumption

30% Reduction potential

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Monitor data every one hour from March to November :kw unit

Baseline

The reduction potential of about 30% can be expected by turning off Air conditioner by the temperature and humidity. 22

Page 23: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

Monday

Results: (1)The pattern for weekdays from Mar. to Oct. showed similar trend. 23

Electrical consumption patterns for office*消費量一定のサーバー・サーバー室エアコンを除外して表示

Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

Page 24: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

Framework for Social Monitoring System

Installation and MonitoringEnergy Data

Collecting Energy and Social Data

Analysis of Collected Data

Promoting Low Carbon Activities/Behavior

Field Survey

Energy Meters

Visualization

Data access approach

1 2 3 4 5

1. Visualization of electricity consumption.2. Supporting demand side management of urban energy consumption

for promoting a low carbon society.

Selecting Measuring Points

Research on Monitoring Sites

Survey Production Lines

Installation

Integrative Analysis of Multi-Sectoral Data

Human Activity

Dashboard

Workshop

24

Page 25: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

Visualize traffic congestion and travel time databy using several smart phones as GPS sensor on vehicle.

Goal: Eco-friendly and More Comfortable City

25Traffic monitoring plan

Phase1

Phase2 : Calculate traffic volume Phase3 : Suggest Environ impact in traffic congestion

Visualize traffic congestion

With CCTV With environment sensor

Data OrientedInnovation Center

Smartphone(Android)

・Public Bus (TransPakuan)■Schedule (Tentative)1.Preparation (~Feb,2015)2.App. Installation 3.Monitoring (Mid. of Mar)4.1st Report (End of Mar)

App.

Smartphone App.

GPS sensor

The target: 20 vehicles

<Target Vehicle><Sensing> <Collection and output > <View>

・Positioning info.・Time and speed※to be arranged

Traffic datawith GHG info.

25

Page 26: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

Preliminary Scenario Simulation in Indonesian City for 2025 by Dr.K.Gomi

26

New scenarios were developed according to “Model Low Emission City” initiatives of Bogor City by IPB and NIES in this August.Emission reduction by the initiatives is projected with some assumptions.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2013 2025BaU

2025CM

GHG

em

issio

ns (k

tCO

2eq)

Land use change Waste managementEnergy - Transport Energy - IndustryEnergy - Commercial Energy - Residential

Projected GHG emissionsContribution to emission reduction

Conversion of Fuel Oil to Gas for Public Transportation: 21ktCO2eq

Bus Rapid Transportation System,Pedestrian Facilities, andBicycle Track: 398ktCO2eq

City Of Park: 57ktCO2eq

LED for Street Lamp,Green Building Concept, andEco-campus: 343ktCO2eqRenewable energy: 250ktCO2eq

Waste collection and recycling: 47ktCO2eq

Industry energy efficiency improvement: 47ktCO2eq

From “Model Low Emission City”

-21%

26

Page 27: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

5

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2013 2025BaU

2025CM

GHG

em

issi

ons (

ktCO

2eq)

Land use change Waste managementEnergy - Transport Energy - IndustryEnergy - Commercial Energy - Residential

Projected GHG emissionsContribution to emission reduction

C onversion of Fuel O il to G as for Public Transportation: 21ktC O 2eq

Bus R apid Transportation System ,Pedestrian Facilities, and

Bicycle Track: 398ktC O 2eq

C ity O f P ark: 57ktC O 2eq

LED for Street Lam p,G reen B uilding C oncept, andEco-cam pus: 343ktC O 2eq

R enewable energy: 250ktCO 2eq

W aste collection and recycling:

47ktC O 2eq

Industry energy efficiency im provem ent: 47ktC O 2eq

From “Model Low Emission City”

-21%

Localized Data and Scenario Modeling• Conventionally, local scenarios are developed with limited statistical data and “default”

parameters from national or international information.

• Our approach combines monitoring of local activity and modeling so that we can propose the most suitable mitigation scenario and Action plans for the city/region.

Mitigation potential

in 2030

Roadmap andinvestment

towards 2030

Actions to introduce the

measures in 2030

The model to project future scenarios: ExSS/AFOLUA

PopulationIndustry

Transport

Agriculture

Waste

Energy Demand

Energy Supply

Land use and Forestry

GHG emissions

Energy technologies

Statistical information Current environmental initiative

Locally suitable mitigation scenarios

Energy Monitoring

Transport Monitoring

• Transport structure• Vehicle speed• Fuel efficiency etc.

• Current and future energy consumption pattern

• Energy savingpotential

27

Page 28: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

Research Targets(1) Strategic future technology assessment system for local technology combining low carbon and environmental technology

(4)Biomass resource

management

(1)Strategic Land Use Planning

(2) Low-carbon Production

System

(3)Local and Regional energy

system

Demand control

Regional PowerGeneration

Integrated Evaluation Model for Technology Alternativesfor the Future Target of the City and Region

Integrated Evaluation Model for Technology Alternativesfor the Future Target of the City and Region

28

Heat Distribution System

Forestry Lumber Transportation System

Cascade Production and Consumption System of Lumber

Low Carbon Eco-industrial System

Urban Industrial Symbiosis System

Land Use Zoning for Future Compact City

Mixed Land Use among Sectors

Page 29: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

Research Target 2; Interactive Eco-policy Planning System in Asia Fukushima Shinchi

Township National Institute for Env. Studies

Simulation for recovery roadmap

復興まちづくりのシミュレーショ

Simulation for recovery roadmap

復興まちづくりのシミュレーショ

Planning for Sustainable Future

29

Energy Assist

Community Information Assist

Life Assist

Community Assist Tablet Network

LocalNeedsLocalNeeds

RegionalEnvironmentInformation

RegionalEnvironmentInformation

Urban SpatialAnalysis

Local environment

diagnosis

Integrated Modelling

Future scenarioassessment

Tech. and policy inventory

-low carbon tech-circulation tech-industrial symbiosis-policy / regulation-land use control

Page 30: Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for …2015/04/17  · 1 Social Monitoring and Modelling Research for Interactive Solution Design Jan. 27-28, 2016, AIT, Thailand Prof. Tsuyoshi

30

Energy Monitoring - Monitoring and Management System by ICT

Transportation Monitoring- GIS and Sensing TechnologySolid Waste Monitoring- Emission Pattern analysis and Simulation

MoEFFOERDIA

Urban System

・Strengthening of collaborationof binational government-academia-industry

・Activation of Low Carbon program and promotion for reaching CO2-reduction goal

・Promotion of Eco-technology transfer・Spread Japanese low carbon technologies

and products

Contribution to Indonesia

Collaboration of Binational Government-academia-industry for Low Carbon Indonesia and Japan Consortium

Contribution to JapanGov’t

Ind. Acad.

IPBLocalCompany(TBA)

Tokyo univ.

Gov’t

Ind. Acad.

・Realization of low carbon society・Urban design based on solid science and tech ・Maximize forest value by cross-sectoral

research and activity・Effective introduction of Japanese know-how

and effect measurement・Improvement of env. research through

collaboration

MoENIES

International Eco-innovation Center

Forestry Monitoring- Seasonal Fire Early Warring- Remote and On-site Monitoring

Air Pollution Monitoring- Monitoring and DiffusionSimulation

Adaptation Forecasting- Water Quality Monitoring and Hydrological simulation

Functions of center1) Environment Monitoring2) Social Monitoring3) Innovative Solution

Energy- Innovative monitoring- High efficiency equipment

Transport- HV/PHV/EV- Optimization

Urban Planning

- Design- Strategic planning

Forest- Remote sensing- Forest land use planning

Solid Waste-Waste to Energy- Reduction at source

Innovative technologies and Policies

Environment Monitoring Social MonitoringSocial MonitoringScope 1 Scope 2

Fujitsu

Living and Natural Environment

Simulation

Designing

Monitoring

Scope 3

Urban SolutionEcological Solution

Research proposal for Innovative Eco-Society Establish Indonesian Eco-Society through Monitoring, Simulation and Innovation

Interactive Solution

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To Convert Aspirations to Actions

Innovative Modelling and Monitoring Research ProjectInnovative Modelling and Monitoring Research Project

Dual Direction Low Carbon Monitoring Information System

Long TermShort Term

Integrated Model for

Future VisionNormative Targets by

General Equilibrium

Model

Technology and policy Solution

Design Adapting to Local

CharacteristicsFuture Targets

Low Carbon Solutions on

Local Contents

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2 005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO2

emis

sion

s (M

tCO

2)

Agriculture, F orestry and FishingTransport, EnergyTransport, FreightTransport, PassengerCommercialResidentialOther ManufacturingConstructionMachineryNon-Ferrous MetalsOther Non-M etallic MineralsGlass ProductsOther Chemical ProductsTextiles, Wearing Apparel and LeatherFood Product, Beverage and TobaccoPaper, Pulp and PrintingPetrochemicalsCementIron and stealElectricity and Heat ProductionEnergy Conversion

Back Casting

Envi

ronm

enta

l loa

d

BaU

・・・

Present

Low Carbon Monitoring System

Leapfrogging Policy Planning

Integrative Project Design

Action oriented Capacity Building

KnowledgePlatform

for

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List of related publications

Huijuan Dong, Tsuyoshi Fujita, Yong Geng, Liang Dong, Satoshi Ohnishi, Lu Sun, Yi Dou, Minoru Fujii (2016) A review on eco-city evaluation methods and highlights for integration. Ecological Indicators, 60, 1184-1191

Yong Geng, Tsuyoshi Fujita, Hung-suck Park, Anthony S.F. Chiu, Donald Huisingh (2015) Recent progress on innovative eco-industrial development. Journal of Cleaner Production, Available online 25 September 2015, doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.09.051

Takuya Togawa, Tsuyoshi Fujita, Liang Dong, Satoshi Ohnishi, Minoru Fujii (2015) Integrating GIS databases and ICT applications for the design of energy circulation systems. Journal of Cleaner Production, Available online 11 July 2015, doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.07.020

Yujiro Hirano, Tsuyoshi Fujita (2015) Simulating the CO2 reduction caused by decreasing the air conditioning load in an urban area. Energy and Buildings, Available online 23 June 2015, doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2015.06.033

Minoru Fujii, Tsuyoshi Fujita, Liang Dong, Chengpeng Lu, Yong Geng, Shishir Kumar Behera, Hung-Suck Park, Anthony Shun Fung Chiu (2015) Possibility of developing low-carbon industries through urban symbiosis in Asian cities. Journal of Cleaner Production, Available online 17 April 2015, doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.04.027

Takuya Togawa, Tsuyoshi Fujita, Liang Dong, Minoru Fujii, Makoto Ooba (2014) Feasibility assessment of the use of power plant-sourced waste heat for plant factory heating considering spatial configuration. Journal of Cleaner Production, 81, 60-69

Xudong Chen, Tsuyoshi Fujita, Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Hirokazu Kato, Yong Geng (2014) Determining optimal resource recycling boundary at regional level: A case study on Tokyo Metropolitan Area in Japan. European Journal of Operational Research, 233(2), 337-348

Momoe Kanada, Tsuyoshi Fujita, Minoru Fujii, Satoshi Ohnishi (2013) The long-term impacts of air pollution control policy: Historical links between municipal actions and industrial energy efficiency in Kawasaki City Japan. Journal of Cleaner Production, 58, 92-101

Yujiro Hirano, Tsuyoshi Fujita (2012) Evaluation of the impact of the urban heat island on residential and commercial energy consumption in Tokyo. Energy, 37(1), 371-383

Thank you for your Attention