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Social Gaming Crystal Ball: 2012. Dave Rohrl Creative Director, Playdom Casual Connect Europe February 9, 2012. What Is the Crystal Ball?. Goal. Predict important FB gaming trends Understand reasons Forecast impacts. Methodology. But seriously Year in Social Games reflection - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Social Gaming Crystal Ball: 2012
Dave RohrlCreative Director, Playdom
Casual Connect EuropeFebruary 9, 2012
What Is the Crystal Ball?
Goal
• Predict important FB gaming trends• Understand reasons• Forecast impacts
Methodology
• But seriously– Year in Social Games reflection• Deflecting trends lines
– General industry trend lines• Inside/Outside social
– Interesting financial events and key quotes
Caveat Auditor
• Hugely speculative• Hard to predict• Consider the source
Prediction #1
Social GoesCasual
(Not Easy Money)
Trend Line
• 2008-2009: Text RPG
Trend Line
• 2008-2009: HTML RPG• 2009-2010: Simple Decorators
Trend Line
• 2008-2009: HTML RPG• 2009-2010: Simple Decorators• 2010-2011: Builder
Trend Line• 2008-2009: HTML RPG• 2009-2010: Simple Decorator• 2010-2011: Builder• 2011-2012: Genre diversification
Dominant Mammal?
• Casual!
2010 Casual Hits
2011 Casual Hits
Why Does This Work?
• Demographics/Psychographics• Large pool of experienced devs• Well-understood core game
Why Now?
• Development experience• Code has been cracked• Market is very, very proven
2011 Casual Hits
Missing From the Picture?
But……
• Expect lots of failure– Merging is hard– Execution is key– Lots of people trying
So?
• Classic casual gameplay as entry point• Stock up on high skill– Both sides of the coin
• Winners win big• Execution wins
Prediction #2
HTML5 Makes A Dent(But Doesn’t Become
Dominant)
What is HTML5?
• Web development standard• Open• Cross-platform• 2D gaming support via canvas• 3D gaming support via WebGL (still in infancy)
Trend Line
• Early yet
Late 2010 Late 2011
Why Now?
• April 2010: “new open standards, created in the web era, such as HTML 5, will win (over Flash)
• September 2010: Zynga buys Dextrose AG• January 2011: Facebook publishes HTML5
browser performance stats, suggests future prefs
• March 2011: Disney acquires RocketPack• November 2011: Adobe abandons Flash for
mobile, focuses on HTML5
Why Does It Matter?
• Web/mobile apps• Web = big $$$ today• Mobile = web of the future– Internet in your pocket
Is Web/Mobile Cross-Platform Always a Good Idea?
• Mostly, kinda, sorta• UI refactor• Different play patterns• Different purchase drivers• Different release cycles• BUT partial is better than nothing
Why Not Dominant?
• Lots of skilled Flash teams• Lots of games in the pipeline• Variable browser performance
So?
• If you’re not gearing up now, you should• You NEED a mobile strategy– Free-ish (with HTML5)
• Watch out for browser performance variance• This section will look VERY different in the
2013 version.
Prediction #3
IP Becomes Really Important
(But Still Isn’t a Magic Wand)
Why is IP Important?
• Facebook had over 550,000 apps as of January 2010– Probably 2MM+ by now
• iPhone had over 300,000 apps as of January 2011– 600,00 by now
Where Do Little Users Come From?
• Directory Search• Game Channel• Virals• Word of Mouth• Advertising
• Directory Search• Game Channel• Virals
IP and Advertising
• Does IP lower acquisition costs?
• Yes!
Oh, and
Additional Benefits
• Fan Base• Price Points• Content Stream
But…
Remember…
• Trial ≠ Conversion• Conversion isn’t just monetization
Prediction #4
Mobile-> Web Gets Leverage
(But Doesn’t Dominate)
Web->Mobile 2010
Mobile->Web Stories 2010
Pseudo Web->Mobile
Mobile->Web Stories 2011
Mobile->Web Stories 2012??
Why?
• Similarity of play patterns• Related expertise• Enough resources
But….
• Not a freebie– UI– Play duration & other variations
• Interoperation is hard• Competition will accelerate
…And the Rest
• The All-Singing, All-Dancing Photorealistic 3D Game Still Doesn’t Make It
• 2009 Won’t Come Back For Hardcore Strategy Games
• 2012 (post-IPO) Will Be An Interesting Year For the Zynga Quality Bar
Thank You!
• Questions?• Feedback!• [email protected]