SOCIAL COHESION, SOCIAL CAPITAL AND WELL-BEING

Stefano Bartolini University of Siena

DELHI, OECD WORLD FORUM 2012

Social capital as a very important component of social cohesion

• Social capital is very important because it has a «special relationship» with well-being

• My topic: the capacity of social capital to

predict the international differences in the trends of subjective well-being (SWB)

International differences in the trends of SWB

• The trends of Subjective Well-Being (SWB) show a substantial heterogeneity across countries.

• In the last thirty years SWB has increased in some countries and decreased in others, (Stevenson and Wolfers, 2008; Inglehart, 2009). For instance: US vs. EU

Trend in US happiness Declining Trend in US happiness

Source: Stevenson and Wolfers 2008, GSS data

Source: Stevenson and Wolfers 2008

What does predict these differences? (Bartolini and Sarracino 2011)

• In the long-term GDP does not: the Easterlin paradox

• Next graphs: data from the WVS-EVS

• GDP vs. social capital: We compare the capacity of the trends of social capital and GDP to predict the trends of SWB, on the same samples of countries.

• My thesis: social capital largely does

Life satisfaction and GDP over at least 15 years (WVS-EVS data)

Life satisfaction and membership over at least 15 years (WVS-EVS data)

Groups and associations

• Social welfare service for elderly

• Religious organizations

• Education, arts, or cultural activities

• Labour unions

• Political parties

• Human rights

• Conservation, the environment, ecology, animal rights

• Youth work

• Professional associations

• Sports or recreation

• Women’s group

• Peace movement

• Organizations concerned with health

• Consumer groups

• Other groups

•Trivariate regressions do not alter these results

First conclusion

• The data used on SWB are the same in both regressions on social capital and GDP: The sample and the time span do not vary

• Results suggest that in the long run (at least 15 years) GDP does not matter

• Social capital matters a lot

From the long to the medium term

• What happens if we shorten the time span? • And what happens if we change the proxy of

social capital? • Social capital variable: trust • Data from the European Social Survey (4

waves every 2 years in 2002-2008)

Life satisfaction and trust over the medium

run (6 years)

Y= -0.02 + 2.740***

N = 24

Life satisfaction and GDP over the medium

run (6 years)

Y= -0.07 + 1.751*

N = 24

•Tri-variate regressions of happiness or life

satisfaction, on trust and GDP

over 6 years

Second conclusion

• In the medium run, social capital still matters a lot

• But GDP begins to become relevant!

From the medium to the short run

• What happens if we further shorten the period?

• Will the results about GDP and social capital change?

• We use the same data as before: trust, ESS (2002-2008)

• In practice, instead than calculating the trend of SWB and trust in 2002-2008, we divide the time series in three sub-periods: 2002-2004, 2004-2006, 2006-2008

Happiness and trust over the short run

(2 years)

Happiness and GDP over the short run

(2 years)

Medium and short run compared

Short run Medium run

Summarizing: GDP

• Results are the same for happiness and life satisfaction

• GDP does not matter for SWB in the long run

• It begins to be important in the medium-term

• Its importance increases as the period shortens: Short run coefficients are greater and more significant than medium run coefficents

Summarizing: social capital

• Social capital is strongly correlated to SWB in the long and the medium-term

• This correlation tends to evaporate in the short run: The coefficients are much smaller and less significant than the medium-term ones

The trend of US happiness is predicted by forces that drive such a trend in opposite directions (Bartolini, Bilancini, Pugno 2011, GSS data)

Increase in income

Decline of social capital

Within countries evidence Declining Trend in US happiness (1975-2004): Why?

Social comparisons

The trends of the various indicators document:

• An increase in: loneliness, sense of isolation, instability of families, generational cleavages, mistrust

• A decrese in: social contacts, honesty, solidarity, social participation, civic engagement

• A decrese in trust in institutions

The decline in social capital

The decline of life satisfaction in China

Source: Bartolini and Sarracino 2012, WVS data

Decomposition of the decline in life satisfaction in China, 1990-2007

Source: Bartolini and Sarracino 2012, WVS data

The decline of life satisfaction in India

Source: Bartolini and Sarracino 2012, WVS data

Decomposition of the decline in life satisfaction in India, 1990-2006

Source: Bartolini and Sarracino 2012, WVS data

Private affluence

Poverty of relationships

Conclusion

We are facing a serious problem of sustainability of social resources which seems to be a major threat for well-being

Should we dedicate to “something else” - at least in part - some of the enormous attention and policy efforts that contemporary societies pour into economic growth?

The answer crucially depends on the time span considered

AT: Austria HU: Hungary

BE: Belgium IE: Ireland

CH: Switzerland IL: Israel

CZ: Czech Republic NL: Netherlands

DE: Germany NO: Norway

DK: Denmark PL: Poland

EE: Estonia PT: Portugal

ES: Spain SE: Sweden

FI: Finland SI: Slovenia

FR: France SK: Slovakia

GB: Great Britain TR: Turkey

GR: Greece UA: Ukraina

Country acronyms in the ESS