Social Change: The 1975-1989 birth cohort: Evidence from the BHPS

SOCIAL CHANGE: THE 1975-1989 BIRTH COHORT: EVIDENCE FROM THE BHPSBSA Conference Cardiff

17th April 2009

Susan Murray, University of Stirling

17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff


Contextual background

Growing up in the 1990s Changes in the early 21st century Persistent inequality Intragenerational movement Intergenerational movement

21st century transitions


‘Sociologists of youth are generally in agreement that the background against

which young people grew up in the closing decades of the twentieth century was

transformed, and is now radically different from earlier decades’ (Gayle, Lambert, Murray

forthcoming)

Characteristics of unweighted sample of rising 16s


Gender n %

Male 1193 53.33

Female 1044 46.67

Ethnicity

White (UK) 2043 91.33

Black-Caribbean/ Black-other 22 0.98

Black-African 12 0.54

Indian 31 1.39

Pakistani/ Bangladeshi 23 1.03

Other 54 2.41

Missing 52 2.32

Qualifications

Any GCSEs at 16 (A-C) 1388 62.05

Any GCSEs at 16 (D-G) 1320 59.01

GCSEs 5+ at 16 (A-C) 1215 54.31

Source: BHPS waves 1-16 rising 16s

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Constant 3.06(0.20) 2.68(0.21) 2.78(0.22) 4.33(0.34) 4.89(0.10) 3.59(0.22) 4.34(0.36) 4.55 (0.35) 4.56(0.35)

Gender (Girls) - 0.97(0.19) 1.03(0.19) 0.95(0.19) - - 0.94(0.19) 0.90(0.19) 0.89(0.19)

Ethnicity

Black Carib/Black-other

- - - - - - - -1.04(1.83)

-1.04(1.83)

Black African - - - - - - - -0.30(1.38)

-0.30(1.38)

Indian - - - - - - - 0.96(0.84)

0.96(0.84)

Pakistani/Bangladeshi - - - - - - - 0.21(1.16)

0.21(1.16)

Other minority - - - - - - - -0.19(0.62)

-0.19(0.62)

Family stratification(Cam Scale) MRJ

0.04(0.01)

0.04(0.01)

0.03(0.01)

0.03(0.01)

- 0.04(0.01)

0.02(0.01)

0.02(0.01)

-

Tenure (Social renters) - - - - -2.53(0.31)

-1.91(0.32)

-1.57(0.32)

-1.51(0.32)

-1.51(0.32)

Parent’s education

Mum graduate - - 1.03(0.34)

- - - 0.49(0.36)

- -

Dad graduate - - 0.93(0.35)

- - - 0.53(0.38)

- -

Mum qualified - - - -0.76(0.22)

- - -0.81(0.22)

-0.95(0.20)

-0.95(0.20)

Dad qualified - - - -1.05(0.20)

- - -0.47(0.24)

-0.63(0.22)

-0.63(0.22)

Gender*class interaction

- - - - - - - - 0.01

(0.003)

Adj R2 0.047 0.063 0.074 0.086 0.042 0.069 0.101 0.098 0.098

N 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500


Employment Status Family Class Model 1 Model 2

Current Managerial/Technical -.7887*

Skilled non-manual -.9418*

skilled manual -1.854***

partly skilled manual -2.623***

unskilled -2.267**

Most Recent Managerial/Technical -1.095**

Skilled non-manual -1.378***

skilled manual -2.209***

partly skilled manual -2.876***

unskilled -2.453**

Constant 5.901*** 6.239***

N 1471 1471

r2 0.03961 0.04642

r2_a 0.03633 0.04316

Logliklihood -4038 -4033

bic 8120 8109

Multiple regression models for number of A*-C GCSEs comparing employment status for the Registrar General Social Classification

Source: BHPS waves 1-16; subsample of the ‘rising 16s’.


Mean number of A*-C GCSE grades per school leaving year


34

56

mgc

sea_

c2

1990 1995 2000 2005June Year 11 - school leaving year indicator

Mean number of A*-C GCSE grades per school leaving year (with confidence intervals)


23

45

67

1990 1995 2000 2005June Year 11 - school leaving year indicator

mgcsea_c2 lower/upper

Quasi Variance for school year


-10

12

34

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

School Year-end compulsory education

Regression estimate 95% conf intervalsRegression estimate 95% QV comp interval

Source: BHPS Rising 16s 1991-2005, n=1760.Model 1: Regression estimating 'Number of GCSE Passes A-C'.

Number of GCSE Passes A-C Year 11by School Year

Figures for pupils gaining 5+ A*-C GCSE grades


Year on year rising 16 results compared with national figures

All pupils

Rising 16s

%

National Figures

%

1991 46.0(36-56) 36.8

1992 62.3(55-70) 38.3

1993 48.7(42-56) 41.2

1994 63.8(56-72) 43.3

1995 43.1(35-51) 43.5

1996 55.4(48-63) 44.5

1997 52.4(44-60) 45.1

1998 50.5(41-60) 46.3

1999 59.1(52-66) 47.9

2000 56.3(49-63) 49.2

2001 61.3(55-68) 50.0

2002 59.1(52-66) 51.6

2003 67.1(60-74) 52.9

2004 47.6(41-54) 53.7

2005 53.0(46-60) 56.3

Source: BHPS waves 1-16; 95% CI around proportion in brackets

Source: http://www.bstubbs.co.uk/5a-c.htm

Logit


-1-.

50

.5

profesnl manager/techn skilled nonman skilled manual partly skilled unskilled

Class RG - Most recent job

Logit prediction 95% conf intervalsLogit prediction 95% QV comp interval

Source: BHPS Rising 16s 1991-2005, n=1635.Model 1: Logistic regression predicting '5+ GCSE Passes A-C'.

Prediction of 5+ GCSE Passes A-C Year 11by RG parental class

Process


To move away from the common outcomes of destination and focus on process, direction and the tracks and trajectories of young people early on in their careers.

Outcome variables


Eligibility for HE/FE Participation in post-16 education Early labour market outcomes (first,

current, last) Combination of labour market outcomes

and educational attainment Predicted trajectories

School year

Plans not to stay in education (n)

Plans to stay in education(n) Total (n)

1995 33 74 107

1996 32 132 164

1997 25 98 123

1998 31 73 104

1999 24 114 138

2000 26 93 119

2001 31 125 156

2002 16 112 128

2003 14 106 120

2004 30 131 161

2005 38 103 141

Total 300 1,161 1,461

Back to the future: Youth Panel


Rising 16s: five years on (%)Status at 21

91

92

93

94

95

96

97 98 99 00 01 02

Employed 60.9

50.7

48.6

49.2

58.0

49.3

47.1 56.7 48.1 48.9 39.3 48.6

Unemployed

7.8 6.5 5.0 9.5 3.4 12.5

4.2 11.1 3.8 5.3 14.1 8.5

Fulltime student

28.2

37.0

41.4

34.9

31.9

34.6

44.5 25.6 43.1 38.9 33.3 37.3

Other 3.2 5.8 5.0 6.4 6.7 3.7 4.2 6.7 5.0 6.9 13.3 5.6

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Research funded by the ESRC

Many thanks.


Documents

Social Change: The 1975-1989 birth cohort: Evidence from the BHPS