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SMART INCO-MED SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria [email protected] http://www.ess.co.at

SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria [email protected] Environmental Software

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Page 1: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

SMART INCO-MEDSMART INCO-MEDkick-off meeting,kick-off meeting,January 5/6 2003January 5/6 2003CEDARE, CAIROCEDARE, CAIRO

SMART INCO-MEDSMART INCO-MEDkick-off meeting,kick-off meeting,January 5/6 2003January 5/6 2003CEDARE, CAIROCEDARE, CAIRO

DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, [email protected] http://www.ess.co.atEnvironmental Software & Services A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen

DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, [email protected] http://www.ess.co.atEnvironmental Software & Services A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen

Page 2: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

SMART: Project Overview SMART: Project Overview

• 3 year duration to August 2005• Started: September 2002 • Current PM: 5• 9 partners and countries• 12 work packages• 5 case studies:

TR,LB,JO,EG,TU

• 3 year duration to August 2005• Started: September 2002 • Current PM: 5• 9 partners and countries• 12 work packages• 5 case studies:

TR,LB,JO,EG,TU

Page 3: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

SMART: Objectives SMART: Objectives Develop policy guidelines for ICZM,

emphasis on water resources• Conflicting water use• Resource economics• Quantitative analysis using indicators,

models, and expert systems• Public information, Internet• Case studies, collaborative network

within and between countries

Develop policy guidelines for ICZM, emphasis on water resources

• Conflicting water use• Resource economics• Quantitative analysis using indicators,

models, and expert systems• Public information, Internet• Case studies, collaborative network

within and between countries

Page 4: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

SMART: Technical Objectives SMART: Technical Objectives

1. Model integration, linkage through expert systems technology

2. Linkage of models and aggregate policy level indicators

3. Linkage of models and public information (Internet)

1. Model integration, linkage through expert systems technology

2. Linkage of models and aggregate policy level indicators

3. Linkage of models and public information (Internet)

Page 5: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

SMART: Work Plan PhasesSMART: Work Plan Phases

1. Requirements analysis, data availability, specifications

2. Data compilation, tool development

3. Parallel case studies4. Comparative evaluation,

dissemination.

1. Requirements analysis, data availability, specifications

2. Data compilation, tool development

3. Parallel case studies4. Comparative evaluation,

dissemination.

Page 6: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

SMART: Milestones SMART: Milestones

1 PM 09 End of preparatory phase, first workshop

2 PM 12 Methods and tools prototypes ready, start of operational phase

3 PM 18 Case studies implemented, first results of scenario analysis

4 PM 24 Analysis and assessment phase initiated

5 PM 30 Case studies completed, final comparative analysis

6 PM36 Project and reporting completed

1 PM 09 End of preparatory phase, first workshop

2 PM 12 Methods and tools prototypes ready, start of operational phase

3 PM 18 Case studies implemented, first results of scenario analysis

4 PM 24 Analysis and assessment phase initiated

5 PM 30 Case studies completed, final comparative analysis

6 PM36 Project and reporting completed

Page 7: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

SMART: work packages SMART: work packages

WP 0: Coordination and AdministrationESS, PM 1-36Communication:

Mailing list: [email protected] server www.ess.co.at/SMARTDiscussion board:Meetings:

Output:Reports:Deliverables:Cost statements:Project Review:

WP 0: Coordination and AdministrationESS, PM 1-36Communication:

Mailing list: [email protected] server www.ess.co.at/SMARTDiscussion board:Meetings:

Output:Reports:Deliverables:Cost statements:Project Review:

Page 8: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

SMART: work packages SMART: work packages

WP 01: Requirements and constraints analysis

FEEM, PM 1-6

Deliverable due by

February 2003 !

WP 01: Requirements and constraints analysis

FEEM, PM 1-6

Deliverable due by

February 2003 !

Page 9: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

SMART: work packages SMART: work packages

WP 02: Socio-economic framework and guidelines

UATLA, PM 3-12

WP 02: Socio-economic framework and guidelines

UATLA, PM 3-12

Page 10: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

SMART: work packages SMART: work packages

WP 03: Analytical tools, models

SOGREAH, PM 3-18

Subtasks for

• TELEMAC

• WaterWare, XPS

WP 03: Analytical tools, models

SOGREAH, PM 3-18

Subtasks for

• TELEMAC

• WaterWare, XPS

Page 11: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

SMART: work packages SMART: work packages

WP 04: Data compilation and analysis

TR, PM 6-24

Includes parallel sub-tasks, one for each case study/country

WP 04: Data compilation and analysis

TR, PM 6-24

Includes parallel sub-tasks, one for each case study/country

Page 12: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

SMART: WP04 SMART: WP04

1. Develop meta-data structure2. Formats, technical specifications,3. Coverage and resolution (space

and time)4. Develop checklists5. Monitor compilation6. Comparative analysis

(completeness, consistency, plausibility)

1. Develop meta-data structure2. Formats, technical specifications,3. Coverage and resolution (space

and time)4. Develop checklists5. Monitor compilation6. Comparative analysis

(completeness, consistency, plausibility)

Page 13: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

SMART: WP04 SMART: WP04

Common data base or data repository;Extensive documentation !Accessible from ftp server at project

web siteSelected data available with interactive

on-line tools (e.g., hydro- meteorological time series data)

Map server at CEDARE

Common data base or data repository;Extensive documentation !Accessible from ftp server at project

web siteSelected data available with interactive

on-line tools (e.g., hydro- meteorological time series data)

Map server at CEDARE

Page 14: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

SMART: work packages SMART: work packages

WP 05 – 09 Case Studies

Respective partner, PM 12-30,

Overlaps with data compilation

WP 05 – 09 Case Studies

Respective partner, PM 12-30,

Overlaps with data compilation

Page 15: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

SMART: work packages SMART: work packages

WP 10: Comparative analysis

FEEM, PM 24-36

Requires input from all case studies

WP 10: Comparative analysis

FEEM, PM 24-36

Requires input from all case studies

Page 16: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

SMART: work packages SMART: work packages

WP 11: Dissemination and exploitation

ESS, PM 3-36

WP 11: Dissemination and exploitation

ESS, PM 3-36

Page 17: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

SMART: time tableSMART: time table

Page 18: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

SMART SMART

Page 19: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

Water managementWater management

must be analyzed in a broad must be analyzed in a broad systems context:systems context:– Socio-economic aspectsSocio-economic aspects (costs and (costs and

benefits, jobs, institutions, regulations)benefits, jobs, institutions, regulations)

– Environmental aspectsEnvironmental aspects (water (water quality, water allocation, alternative use)quality, water allocation, alternative use)

– Technological aspectsTechnological aspects (constraints,BAT, clean technologies, (constraints,BAT, clean technologies, water efficiency, reuse and recycling)water efficiency, reuse and recycling)

must be analyzed in a broad must be analyzed in a broad systems context:systems context:– Socio-economic aspectsSocio-economic aspects (costs and (costs and

benefits, jobs, institutions, regulations)benefits, jobs, institutions, regulations)

– Environmental aspectsEnvironmental aspects (water (water quality, water allocation, alternative use)quality, water allocation, alternative use)

– Technological aspectsTechnological aspects (constraints,BAT, clean technologies, (constraints,BAT, clean technologies, water efficiency, reuse and recycling)water efficiency, reuse and recycling)

Page 20: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

Water managementWater management

Conflicting water use and changing, Conflicting water use and changing, stochastic constraintsstochastic constraints

• Multiple criteria, conflicting objectivesMultiple criteria, conflicting objectives

• Industrial water management:Industrial water management:– Water demandWater demand

• Consumptive useConsumptive use

• Water pollutionWater pollution

Conflicting water use and changing, Conflicting water use and changing, stochastic constraintsstochastic constraints

• Multiple criteria, conflicting objectivesMultiple criteria, conflicting objectives

• Industrial water management:Industrial water management:– Water demandWater demand

• Consumptive useConsumptive use

• Water pollutionWater pollution

Page 21: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

Environmental problemsEnvironmental problems

Water Management problems:Water Management problems:– Not enoughNot enough– Too muchToo much– At the wrong place At the wrong place – At the wrong timeAt the wrong time– Insufficient qualityInsufficient quality

Problems of distribution of Problems of distribution of resources resources (clean air, water, land, (clean air, water, land, biodiversity, …)biodiversity, …)

Water Management problems:Water Management problems:– Not enoughNot enough– Too muchToo much– At the wrong place At the wrong place – At the wrong timeAt the wrong time– Insufficient qualityInsufficient quality

Problems of distribution of Problems of distribution of resources resources (clean air, water, land, (clean air, water, land, biodiversity, …)biodiversity, …)

Page 22: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

Environmental problemsEnvironmental problems

result from the local or short-term result from the local or short-term optimization of resource optimization of resource management strategies, ignoring management strategies, ignoring some externalities (side effects, some externalities (side effects, costs to others).costs to others).

All life degrades its environment.All life degrades its environment.

All living systems have self-regulatory All living systems have self-regulatory capabilities – within usually unknown capabilities – within usually unknown

limits.limits.

result from the local or short-term result from the local or short-term optimization of resource optimization of resource management strategies, ignoring management strategies, ignoring some externalities (side effects, some externalities (side effects, costs to others).costs to others).

All life degrades its environment.All life degrades its environment.

All living systems have self-regulatory All living systems have self-regulatory capabilities – within usually unknown capabilities – within usually unknown

limits.limits.

Page 23: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

Environmental problemsEnvironmental problems

Increasing human populationIncreasing human population

Increasing resource consumptionIncreasing resource consumption– EnergyEnergy– MaterialsMaterials– SpaceSpace

And potentially irreversible And potentially irreversible destruction of information destruction of information (biodiversity)(biodiversity)

Increasing human populationIncreasing human population

Increasing resource consumptionIncreasing resource consumption– EnergyEnergy– MaterialsMaterials– SpaceSpace

And potentially irreversible And potentially irreversible destruction of information destruction of information (biodiversity)(biodiversity)

Page 24: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

Environmental problemsEnvironmental problems

Three laws of ecology:Three laws of ecology:

1.1. Everything is connected to Everything is connected to everything else;everything else;

2.2. Everything must go somewhere;Everything must go somewhere;

3.3. Nature knows best.Nature knows best. Barry Commoner, Barry Commoner,

The Closing The Closing Cycle.Cycle.

Three laws of ecology:Three laws of ecology:

1.1. Everything is connected to Everything is connected to everything else;everything else;

2.2. Everything must go somewhere;Everything must go somewhere;

3.3. Nature knows best.Nature knows best. Barry Commoner, Barry Commoner,

The Closing The Closing Cycle.Cycle.

Page 25: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

Environmental problemsEnvironmental problems

Root problem:

Uncoupling of feedback loops

(to obtain local or short-term benefits)•Tragedy of the Commons (Hardin,

1968)

•Social costs (Kapp, 1979)

•Limits to Growth (Meadows et al., 1971)

•Malthus (1830)

Root problem:

Uncoupling of feedback loops

(to obtain local or short-term benefits)•Tragedy of the Commons (Hardin,

1968)

•Social costs (Kapp, 1979)

•Limits to Growth (Meadows et al., 1971)

•Malthus (1830)

Page 26: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

Environmental problemsEnvironmental problems

IF: quantity or quality, spatial or IF: quantity or quality, spatial or temporal distribution of temporal distribution of environmental resources do not environmental resources do not match our needs or expectations:match our needs or expectations:– EnvironmentEnvironment (objective reality)(objective reality)– Needs Needs (objective-subjective (objective-subjective

reality)reality)– ExpectationsExpectations (subjective reality)(subjective reality)

IF: quantity or quality, spatial or IF: quantity or quality, spatial or temporal distribution of temporal distribution of environmental resources do not environmental resources do not match our needs or expectations:match our needs or expectations:– EnvironmentEnvironment (objective reality)(objective reality)– Needs Needs (objective-subjective (objective-subjective

reality)reality)– ExpectationsExpectations (subjective reality)(subjective reality)

Page 27: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

Regulatory responseRegulatory response

Laws and regulations:Laws and regulations:• Emission control (water, air)Emission control (water, air)• Product standards Product standards (fuel, engines, (fuel, engines,

BAT)BAT)

• Permitting, zoningPermitting, zoning• Monetary instruments:Monetary instruments:

– Taxes (waste tax)Taxes (waste tax)– Subsidies (for mitigation)Subsidies (for mitigation)

Laws and regulations:Laws and regulations:• Emission control (water, air)Emission control (water, air)• Product standards Product standards (fuel, engines, (fuel, engines,

BAT)BAT)

• Permitting, zoningPermitting, zoning• Monetary instruments:Monetary instruments:

– Taxes (waste tax)Taxes (waste tax)– Subsidies (for mitigation)Subsidies (for mitigation)

Page 28: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

Regulatory responseRegulatory response

Planning requirements:Planning requirements:– Environmental impact assessmentEnvironmental impact assessment– Risk assessmentRisk assessment

Self-regulation:Self-regulation:– ISO 14000, 9000ISO 14000, 9000– EMAS, Eco-AuditEMAS, Eco-Audit– Responsible CareResponsible Care– Labeling (“biological” food)Labeling (“biological” food)

Planning requirements:Planning requirements:– Environmental impact assessmentEnvironmental impact assessment– Risk assessmentRisk assessment

Self-regulation:Self-regulation:– ISO 14000, 9000ISO 14000, 9000– EMAS, Eco-AuditEMAS, Eco-Audit– Responsible CareResponsible Care– Labeling (“biological” food)Labeling (“biological” food)

Page 29: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

Water management problemsWater management problems

are inherently multi-disciplinary:are inherently multi-disciplinary:• Hydrology, geology, climatology, Hydrology, geology, climatology,

geographygeography• (Geo)physics, chemistry(Geo)physics, chemistry• Biology, ecology, toxicologyBiology, ecology, toxicology• Engineering, economicsEngineering, economics• Psychology, sociologyPsychology, sociology• Law, political sciencesLaw, political sciences

are inherently multi-disciplinary:are inherently multi-disciplinary:• Hydrology, geology, climatology, Hydrology, geology, climatology,

geographygeography• (Geo)physics, chemistry(Geo)physics, chemistry• Biology, ecology, toxicologyBiology, ecology, toxicology• Engineering, economicsEngineering, economics• Psychology, sociologyPsychology, sociology• Law, political sciencesLaw, political sciences

Page 30: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

Water management problemsWater management problems

• are complex (many elements and are complex (many elements and interactions)interactions)

• dynamic (including delay, memory)dynamic (including delay, memory)• spatially distributed (1, 1.5, 2 and 3D) spatially distributed (1, 1.5, 2 and 3D) • non-linear (feedback, bifurcation, etc.)non-linear (feedback, bifurcation, etc.)• involve large uncertainties ininvolve large uncertainties in

- the physical domain- the physical domain

- the socio-economic domain - the socio-economic domain • involve multiple actors and stake holders involve multiple actors and stake holders • are always multi-criteria, multi-objectiveare always multi-criteria, multi-objective

• are complex (many elements and are complex (many elements and interactions)interactions)

• dynamic (including delay, memory)dynamic (including delay, memory)• spatially distributed (1, 1.5, 2 and 3D) spatially distributed (1, 1.5, 2 and 3D) • non-linear (feedback, bifurcation, etc.)non-linear (feedback, bifurcation, etc.)• involve large uncertainties ininvolve large uncertainties in

- the physical domain- the physical domain

- the socio-economic domain - the socio-economic domain • involve multiple actors and stake holders involve multiple actors and stake holders • are always multi-criteria, multi-objectiveare always multi-criteria, multi-objective

Page 31: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

A river basin perspective:A river basin perspective:

Water can easily be accounted for, a mass Water can easily be accounted for, a mass budget approach is feasible;budget approach is feasible;

The hydrographic unit of the catchment or The hydrographic unit of the catchment or river basin provides a naturally bounded river basin provides a naturally bounded well defined system;well defined system;

Conservation laws (mass, momentum) are Conservation laws (mass, momentum) are used to describe dynamic water budgets.used to describe dynamic water budgets.

Page 32: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

A river basin perspective:A river basin perspective:

Industrial water use is one of the demand Industrial water use is one of the demand nodes in a river basin network/graph:nodes in a river basin network/graph:– Input nodes (sub-catchment, wells)Input nodes (sub-catchment, wells)– Domestic demand nodesDomestic demand nodes– Agricultural demand nodesAgricultural demand nodes– Industrial demand nodesIndustrial demand nodes– Reservoirs, lakesReservoirs, lakes– Structural components (confluence)Structural components (confluence)

connected by river reaches, canalsconnected by river reaches, canals

Page 33: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software
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Water demandWater demand

Depends on:Depends on:• Production volumeProduction volume• Production technologyProduction technology• Recycling strategiesRecycling strategies

Demand has quantitative and qualitative Demand has quantitative and qualitative elements, usually involves water treatmentelements, usually involves water treatment

For a given For a given cost of watercost of water, an optimal strategy can , an optimal strategy can be computed based on investment cost, be computed based on investment cost, discount rate, and project lifetime (NPV)discount rate, and project lifetime (NPV)

Page 44: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

Water demandWater demand

intakeintake

Consumptive useConsumptive use

recyclingrecyclingreturn flowreturn flow

ProductionProductionprocessprocess

Page 45: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

Consumptive useConsumptive use

Water demand consists of:Water demand consists of:

• Consumptive useConsumptive use– Process water (integrated in the product)Process water (integrated in the product)– Cooling (evaporation)Cooling (evaporation)

• Temporary useTemporary use (return flow) (return flow)

But pollution can make the return flow unfit But pollution can make the return flow unfit for subsequent usefor subsequent use

Page 46: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

Conflicting useConflicting use

More than 70% of water is generally used More than 70% of water is generally used for agriculture (irrigation);for agriculture (irrigation);

Added value per unit water used in industry Added value per unit water used in industry is usually between 50 to 100 times higher is usually between 50 to 100 times higher than in agriculture;than in agriculture;

Domestic use of water is comparatively Domestic use of water is comparatively small, but with high quality requirements small, but with high quality requirements and low elasticity.and low elasticity.

Environmental use Environmental use (low flow, quality constraints).(low flow, quality constraints).

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Water PollutionWater Pollution

1.1. Industrial effluents incl.spillsIndustrial effluents incl.spills

2.2. Domestic sewageDomestic sewage

3.3. Irrigation return flowIrrigation return flow

• Reduces potential utility for other down-Reduces potential utility for other down-stream usersstream users

• Endangers biological systems (fish kill)Endangers biological systems (fish kill)• May accumulate over long periods May accumulate over long periods

(chemical time bombs in sediments)(chemical time bombs in sediments)

Page 51: SMART INCO-MED kick-off meeting, January 5/6 2003 CEDARE, CAIRO DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria kurt@ess.co.at  Environmental Software

Waste managementWaste management

Waste allocation:Waste allocation:

Utilizes the self-purification potential of Utilizes the self-purification potential of natural water bodies (BOD, natural water bodies (BOD, biodegradable substances);biodegradable substances);

But many toxics and heavy metals are But many toxics and heavy metals are persistent (long term cumulative damage, persistent (long term cumulative damage, bioaccumulation, sediments).bioaccumulation, sediments).

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WP 10: Comparative AnalysisWP 10: Comparative AnalysisOBJECTIVES:OBJECTIVES:• The comparative analysis of the set of The comparative analysis of the set of

scenarios for each case/scenario.scenarios for each case/scenario. • The multi-criteria comparative analysis

and selection of a non-dominated set of (Pareto optimal) alternatives

• The identification of the most promising The identification of the most promising scenario or small set of candidate scenario or small set of candidate scenarios from each test sitescenarios from each test site

OBJECTIVES:OBJECTIVES:• The comparative analysis of the set of The comparative analysis of the set of

scenarios for each case/scenario.scenarios for each case/scenario. • The multi-criteria comparative analysis

and selection of a non-dominated set of (Pareto optimal) alternatives

• The identification of the most promising The identification of the most promising scenario or small set of candidate scenario or small set of candidate scenarios from each test sitescenarios from each test site

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WP 10: Comparative AnalysisWP 10: Comparative Analysis

Scenario comparison and multi-Scenario comparison and multi-criteria analysiscriteria analysis

1.1. Baseline ScenariosBaseline Scenarios2.2. Common ScenariosCommon Scenarios3.3. Specific ScenariosSpecific ScenariosANY EXTERNAL CASES ?ANY EXTERNAL CASES ?

Scenario comparison and multi-Scenario comparison and multi-criteria analysiscriteria analysis

1.1. Baseline ScenariosBaseline Scenarios2.2. Common ScenariosCommon Scenarios3.3. Specific ScenariosSpecific ScenariosANY EXTERNAL CASES ?ANY EXTERNAL CASES ?

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WP 10: Comparative AnalysisWP 10: Comparative Analysis

METHOD:METHOD: • Discrete MCDiscrete MC• Pareto set (half ordering)Pareto set (half ordering)• Reference point approachReference point approach

Set of criteria; define constraints and Set of criteria; define constraints and optimization direction for each;optimization direction for each;

Optimum solution is the one nearest to Optimum solution is the one nearest to reference point (utopia).reference point (utopia).

Reference point location scales (criteria) Reference point location scales (criteria) dimensions.dimensions.

METHOD:METHOD: • Discrete MCDiscrete MC• Pareto set (half ordering)Pareto set (half ordering)• Reference point approachReference point approach

Set of criteria; define constraints and Set of criteria; define constraints and optimization direction for each;optimization direction for each;

Optimum solution is the one nearest to Optimum solution is the one nearest to reference point (utopia).reference point (utopia).

Reference point location scales (criteria) Reference point location scales (criteria) dimensions.dimensions.

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WP 10: Comparative AnalysisWP 10: Comparative Analysis

SCENARIO:SCENARIO:

INPUT:INPUT: Set of Set of assumptionsassumptionsDecision and Policy Decision and Policy variablesvariables

Exogeneous variablesExogeneous variablesOUTPUT:OUTPUT: Set of indicators Set of indicators or criteriaor criteria

SCENARIO:SCENARIO:

INPUT:INPUT: Set of Set of assumptionsassumptionsDecision and Policy Decision and Policy variablesvariables

Exogeneous variablesExogeneous variablesOUTPUT:OUTPUT: Set of indicators Set of indicators or criteriaor criteria

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Decision Support MethodologyDecision Support MethodologyReference point approach:Reference point approach:

nadirnadirnadirnadir

utopiautopiautopiautopia

A1A1

A2A2

A3A3

A4A4

betterbetter

efficient efficient pointpoint

criterion 1criterion 1

crite

rion

2cr

iterio

n 2 A5A5

dominateddominated

A6A6

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WP 10: Comparative AnalysisWP 10: Comparative Analysis

METHOD:METHOD:

•Modify the set of Modify the set of alternativesalternatives

•Select criteriaSelect criteria•Modify constraintsModify constraints• Introduce reference pointIntroduce reference point•Reduce dimensionalityReduce dimensionality

METHOD:METHOD:

•Modify the set of Modify the set of alternativesalternatives

•Select criteriaSelect criteria•Modify constraintsModify constraints• Introduce reference pointIntroduce reference point•Reduce dimensionalityReduce dimensionality

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WP 10: Comparative AnalysisWP 10: Comparative Analysis

METHOD:METHOD: Combination of indicators by Combination of indicators by RULESRULES

or simple algorithmsor simple algorithms

Quality, Quantity Quality, Quantity STATUS STATUS

Dynamically generated combined Dynamically generated combined indicators can be used for the indicators can be used for the benchmarkingbenchmarking

METHOD:METHOD: Combination of indicators by Combination of indicators by RULESRULES

or simple algorithmsor simple algorithms

Quality, Quantity Quality, Quantity STATUS STATUS

Dynamically generated combined Dynamically generated combined indicators can be used for the indicators can be used for the benchmarkingbenchmarking

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WP 10: Comparative AnalysisWP 10: Comparative Analysis

RESULT:RESULT:

•Ranking order of Ranking order of alternativesalternatives

•Dominated/Pareto subsetsDominated/Pareto subsets•Distance from reference Distance from reference

point: point: nearest = bestnearest = best

RESULT:RESULT:

•Ranking order of Ranking order of alternativesalternatives

•Dominated/Pareto subsetsDominated/Pareto subsets•Distance from reference Distance from reference

point: point: nearest = bestnearest = best

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WP 10: Comparative AnalysisWP 10: Comparative Analysis

The vocabulary:The vocabulary:•List of indicatorsList of indicators•Derived indicators (rule-based)Derived indicators (rule-based)

Constraints based on:Constraints based on:– Standards (WQ, reliability, ?)Standards (WQ, reliability, ?)– Distributions (e.g., drop one SD)Distributions (e.g., drop one SD)– Preferences Preferences

The vocabulary:The vocabulary:•List of indicatorsList of indicators•Derived indicators (rule-based)Derived indicators (rule-based)

Constraints based on:Constraints based on:– Standards (WQ, reliability, ?)Standards (WQ, reliability, ?)– Distributions (e.g., drop one SD)Distributions (e.g., drop one SD)– Preferences Preferences

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WP 10: Comparative AnalysisWP 10: Comparative Analysis

Inidicator definitions:Inidicator definitions:

1.1. Name, aliasName, alias

2.2. UnitUnit

3.3. Allowable range with Allowable range with symbolic labelssymbolic labels

4.4. Question/definitionQuestion/definition

5.5. Inference RulesInference Rules

Inidicator definitions:Inidicator definitions:

1.1. Name, aliasName, alias

2.2. UnitUnit

3.3. Allowable range with Allowable range with symbolic labelssymbolic labels

4.4. Question/definitionQuestion/definition

5.5. Inference RulesInference Rules

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WP 10: Comparative AnalysisWP 10: Comparative AnalysisReliabilityReliabilityA: RELA: RELU: %U: %V: LowV: Low [ 0,[ 0, 10, 10, 20] 20]V: MediumV: Medium [21, 25, 40][21, 25, 40]V: HighV: High [41,[41, 50, 50, 100]100]Q: What is average reliability of Q: What is average reliability of

meeting water demands on a daily meeting water demands on a daily basis ?basis ?

ReliabilityReliabilityA: RELA: RELU: %U: %V: LowV: Low [ 0,[ 0, 10, 10, 20] 20]V: MediumV: Medium [21, 25, 40][21, 25, 40]V: HighV: High [41,[41, 50, 50, 100]100]Q: What is average reliability of Q: What is average reliability of

meeting water demands on a daily meeting water demands on a daily basis ?basis ?

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WP 10: Comparative AnalysisWP 10: Comparative AnalysisRULES:RULES:

IF conditionIF conditionAND/OR conditionAND/OR condition

THEN conclusionTHEN conclusion

Condition:Condition:Descriptor Operator ValueDescriptor Operator ValueQuality == highQuality == high

RULES:RULES:IF conditionIF conditionAND/OR conditionAND/OR condition

THEN conclusionTHEN conclusion

Condition:Condition:Descriptor Operator ValueDescriptor Operator ValueQuality == highQuality == high

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WP 10: Comparative AnalysisWP 10: Comparative AnalysisRULES:RULES:

IF conditionIF conditionAND/OR conditionAND/OR condition

THEN conclusionTHEN conclusionCondition:Condition:Descriptor Operator ValueDescriptor Operator ValueDensity ==, <,>,!=,……. highDensity ==, <,>,!=,……. highConclusion:Conclusion:Descriptor Assignment ValueDescriptor Assignment ValueDensity = highDensity = high

RULES:RULES:IF conditionIF condition

AND/OR conditionAND/OR conditionTHEN conclusionTHEN conclusion

Condition:Condition:Descriptor Operator ValueDescriptor Operator ValueDensity ==, <,>,!=,……. highDensity ==, <,>,!=,……. highConclusion:Conclusion:Descriptor Assignment ValueDescriptor Assignment ValueDensity = highDensity = high

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WP 10: Comparative AnalysisWP 10: Comparative AnalysisRULES:RULES:

IF quantity == sufficientIF quantity == sufficientAND quality == sufficientAND quality == sufficient

THEN status = very_goodTHEN status = very_goodCondition:Condition:Descriptor Operator ValueDescriptor Operator ValueReliability ==, <,>,!=,……. Reliability ==, <,>,!=,…….

highhighConclusion:Conclusion:Descriptor Assignment ValueDescriptor Assignment Value Reliability = highReliability = high

RULES:RULES:IF quantity == sufficientIF quantity == sufficient

AND quality == sufficientAND quality == sufficientTHEN status = very_goodTHEN status = very_good

Condition:Condition:Descriptor Operator ValueDescriptor Operator ValueReliability ==, <,>,!=,……. Reliability ==, <,>,!=,…….

highhighConclusion:Conclusion:Descriptor Assignment ValueDescriptor Assignment Value Reliability = highReliability = high

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WP 11: DisseminationWP 11: Dissemination• Web siteWeb site• Meeting, conferences, Meeting, conferences,

scientific and technical scientific and technical literatureliterature

• Local workshopsLocal workshops

• Web siteWeb site• Meeting, conferences, Meeting, conferences,

scientific and technical scientific and technical literatureliterature

• Local workshopsLocal workshops

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WP 11: DisseminationWP 11: Dissemination

•Web site, other Web site, other material ?material ?

•Meeting, conferences, Meeting, conferences, scientific and technical scientific and technical literatureliterature

•Local dissemination Local dissemination workshops (language)workshops (language)

•SMART: the book ?SMART: the book ?

•Web site, other Web site, other material ?material ?

•Meeting, conferences, Meeting, conferences, scientific and technical scientific and technical literatureliterature

•Local dissemination Local dissemination workshops (language)workshops (language)

•SMART: the book ?SMART: the book ?