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Professor Jerson Kelman, CEO of Light S.A., Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Small probability events that could cause water supply collapse – how to deal with them PLENARY: A risk perspective on water security Introduces risk as a unifying framework to address these challenges at multiple scales
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Water Security, Risk and Society Oxford, April 2012
Small probability events
that could cause water supply collapse
Jerson Kelman
CEO of Light Group
Hydrological uncertainty rbhrghrbgrfrrfrr
Região Sudeste / Centro-Oeste
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Nov/99 Dez/99 Jan/00 Fev/00 Mar/00 Abr/00 Mai/00 Jun/00 Jul/00 Ago/00 Set/00 Out/00 Nov/00 Dez/00
% EAR MÁX
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
jan/97
jul/97
jan/98
jul/98
jan/99
jul/99
jan/00
jul/00
jan/01
jul/01
jan/02
Storage in the equivalent reservoir
Beginning 2000 Beginning
2001
Water Storage in the Sobradinho Reservoir Simulação do comportamento do reservatório de FURNAS
(Vazão firme = 670 m³/s)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Jan-3
1
Jan-3
4
Jan-3
7
Jan-4
0
Jan-4
3
Jan-4
6
Jan-4
9
Jan-5
2
Jan-5
5
Jan-5
8
Jan-6
1
Jan-6
4
Jan-6
7
Jan-7
0
Jan-7
3
Jan-7
6
Jan-7
9
Jan-8
2
Jan-8
5
Jan-8
8
Jan-9
1
Jan-9
4
Jan-9
7
Jan-0
0
Mês/ano
Volu
me
(hm³)
Armazenamento final (hm3) Volume Morto (hm3)
Nov/56 = 5733 hm³
Volume morto = 5733 hm³
Fonte dos Dados: ONS
Fourth worst drought in record
Lessons from case 1 • Decisions under uncertainty are politically evaluated by their consequences, not by their wisdom
• The layman expects that the water (or electric energy) supply system is able to endure the worst drought in record
• It is sometimes preferable to make easy to understand but less than optimal decisions
Sobradinho Reservoir
Sao Francisco River Basin
Brazil
Drought prone area
During the 1887-89 drought, about one million people emigrated from the drought prone area Countless died
HYDROLOGICAL VICIOUS
CYCLE
No firm water supply
Little investment
in high-value crops or industry
People are
Poor
It is necessary an initial stock of investments on water infrastructure before reaching the “in8lexion point… and then real progress starts (David Grey and Claudia Sadoff, “Sink or Swim? Water security for growth and development”)
INTERBASIN WATER TRANSFER
Qmean São Francisco River = 2600 m3 /s
26 m3 /s ≤ Qdiversion ≤ 127 m3 /s 1% of Qmean ≤ Qdiversion ≤ 5% of Qmean
600 Km of channels
Water Storage in the Sobradinho Reservoir Simulação do comportamento do reservatório de FURNAS
(Vazão firme = 670 m³/s)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Jan-3
1
Jan-3
4
Jan-3
7
Jan-4
0
Jan-4
3
Jan-4
6
Jan-4
9
Jan-5
2
Jan-5
5
Jan-5
8
Jan-6
1
Jan-6
4
Jan-6
7
Jan-7
0
Jan-7
3
Jan-7
6
Jan-7
9
Jan-8
2
Jan-8
5
Jan-8
8
Jan-9
1
Jan-9
4
Jan-9
7
Jan-0
0
Mês/ano
Volu
me
(hm³)
Armazenamento final (hm3) Volume Morto (hm3)
Nov/56 = 5733 hm³
Volume morto = 5733 hm³
Fonte dos Dados: ONS
Opportunity cost of water in the Sobradinho Reservoir
90% of capacity
Sobradinho Reservoir
Continuous flow riv
erSmall reservoir in the recipient region
PipelineWater flowfrom theSão FranciscoRiver Basin
Inte
rmitt
ent r
iver
Continuous flow riv
erSmall reservoir in the recipient region
PipelineWater flowfrom theSão FranciscoRiver Basin
Inte
rmitt
ent r
iver
95% 95%
Water reliability in different site of the recipient region
w without diversion with diversion
Continuous flow riv
erSmall reservoir in the recipient region
PipelineWater flowfrom theSão FranciscoRiver Basin
Inte
rmitt
ent r
iver
Continuous flow riv
erSmall reservoir in the recipient region
PipelineWater flowfrom theSão FranciscoRiver Basin
Inte
rmitt
ent r
iver
• No Interbasin Diversion Project • Build individual water tanks • Store rain falling on the roofs
Water for survival
• Interbasin Diversion Project • Build local reservoirs • Build pipes and channels
Water for production
X
“I will sustain a hunger strike until Government cancels the Project” (Bishop Dom Cappio)
Lessons from case 2 • When the probability P of a catastrophic drought tends to zero and the corresponding cost C tends to infinity…
Expected Cost … 0 × ∞ …undefined
Mathematical lack of definition… … political lack of resolution
• When ideology opposes hydrology, it is very difficult to discuss water security challenges using risk as a unifying framework
