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Slides for Part III- C
Outline
1. The naïve model
2. Consumption function controversies
3. The “permanent” income hypothesis
4. The life-cycle hypothesis
5. The functional income hypothesis
6. Poterba on the “wealth effect”
7. Brown on consumer credit
The naïve consumption function
Remember our consumption function was specified as follows:
cYDCC
Where C is autonomous consumption and c is the marginal propensity to consume
The range of possible values of the marginal propensity to consume is based on the the fundamental psychological law of consumption, which can be stated as follows: People are disposed, as a rule and on average, to increase their consumption when their income increases; but not by as much as the increase in income.
•Ave. propensity to consume (APC): Ratio of consumption to real disposable income (YD). That is:
APC = C/YD
•Ave. propensity to save (APS): Ratio of saving to real disposable income. That is:
APC = S/YD.
•Marginal propensity to save (MPS): The change in saving resulting from a one unit change in disposable income. That is:
MPS = S/ YD.
Definitions
YD C S MPC APC MPS APS
0 $30 -$30 -- -- -- --
$100 100 0 .70 1 .30 --
200 170 30 .70 .85 .30 .15
300 240 60 .70 .80 .30 .20
400 310 90 .70 .775 .30 .225
500 380 120 .70 .76 .30 .24
600 450 150 .70 .75 .30 .25
The consumption function is given by:
C = 30 + .7YD
The MPC and the MPS
C = YD
C/YD = 1
C
YD0 100
100
300
240
30
300
S
CYD
C = 30 + .7YD
450
The graph
C
YD0 100
100
240
30
300
C = 30 + .7YD
400
310
YD
C
Slope = C/YD = 70/100 = .7
Slope of the consumption function
450
C1
C0
C2
C
YD0
The function could shift due to:
A change in household wealth
A change in consumer confidence.
Change in price or availability of credit.
Shifts of the consumption function(C)
)1(1
1
)1(1
10
tcC
tcAY
1A
2AC
Y1 Y2 Output, income
0Y
0
Agg
rega
te d
eman
d
Consumption function controversies
•What can explain the long-run stability of the average propensity to consume?
•How sensitive is current consumption expenditure to changes in current income?
•What can account for cross-sectional differences in the average propensity to consume?
•How significant is the “wealth effect”?
•Is consumer debt important in explaining shifts of the consumption function?
C = YD
C/YD = 1
C
DY0 100
100
30
C = 30 + .7YD
450
APC decreases as DY increases
The naïve model predicts a falling
APC—but the “long run” data do not bear
this out.
Period Disposable Income Consumption APC1960-69 2052.6 1853.2 0.9031970-79 3082.8 2713.8 0.8801980-89 4218 3718.3 0.8821990-99 5544.7 5061.9 0.913
The Long Run Average Propensity to Consume
Data for consumption and investment in chained 1996 dollars
www.bea.gov
Disposable Income and Consumption, 1980-99
1,000.0
2,000.0
3,000.0
4,000.0
5,000.0
6,000.0
7,000.0
8,000.0
1,000.0 2,000.0 3,000.0 4,000.0 5,000.0 6,000.0 7,000.0
Disposable Income (billions)
Con
sum
ptio
n (b
illio
ns)
www.bea.gov
The permanent income hypothesis1
1M. Friedman. A Theory of the Consumption Function, 1957
Professor Friedman claims thatcurrent C does not depend on current YD (at least not directly). Rather, C
depends on what Friedman terms “permanent income.”
C=f(YD)
Key points
•Permanent income is the flow of monthly or annual income that expected or regarded as normal by the household based on its endowment of wealth (inclusive of human wealth).
•Past income flows are one factor that condition the household’s assessment of permanent income.
•Current income (YD) affects consumption indirectly--by its affect on the household estimate of permanent income.
Example of a “representative household”
Occupation: Attorney
Expected annual income from legal fees
$89,000
Expected annual income from other sources (rent, dividends, etc.)
7,000
Total $96,000
Annual estimate of YP $96,000
Monthly estimate of YP $8,000
7,000
0
YP
10,000
6,000
Actual income
July August Month
Inco
me,
Con
sum
ptio
n
C
•Positive transitory income (YT) in July ($2,000)—hence, APC falls.
•Negative transitory income (YT) in August ($2,000)--hence APC rises
8,000
APC rises from .7 to 1.17 from July to August
01
n
i
TY
Note that:
Moral of the story
•C is not as sensitive to changes in current income as the Keynesians would have you believe.
•This factor diminishes the size of the MPC and hence the multiplier effect.
•The diminished power of the multiplier effect in turn calls into to question to effectiveness of counter-cyclical fiscal policy
)1(1
1
tc
The life-cycle hypothesis1
1A. Ando and F. Modigliani,” The Life-Cycle Hypothesis of Saving,” American Economic Review, March 1963.
Cross-sectional studies of consumer behavior show widevariation in the APC (or APS)
among households with the same income. The life-cycle hypothesis can explain this—but is it the right
explanation?
Age
DY, C
18 67
C
DY
APC falls during peak earning years, and rises during retirement
Theory implies C is less sensitive to changes in current YD than “naïve” Keynesian model suggests; hence , the multiplier is smaller too.
•0-18 APS <1
•18-67 APS > 1
•67- APS < 1
The functional income hypothesis
Key points:
1. Total consumption expenditure is partly determined by the prevailing distribution of income among various groups.
2. Higher income households tend to have a higher propensity to save than lower income households. Hence if income is redistributed upward, this will raise the APS and lower the APC.
3. Policies that have the effect of making income distribution more even tend to raise the propensity to consume (and lower the propensity to save).
Example
Family Income Spending APC APS
Rogers $38,000 $37,240 .98 .02
Andersons $225,000 191,250 .85 .15
A transfer of income from the Andersons to the Rogers could boost
the APC.
Sherman & Kolk presentation
•Let W denote labor income from wages, salary, fringe benefits, commissions, etc.
•Let denote “property income”—income from dividends, interest, rent, and (net) income of non-corporate business enterprises.
•Let Y denote national income.
Thus:WY
Also:1
YY
W
(1)
(2)
Equation (2) gives the functional shares in
national income
•Let 1 denote the average propensity to consume out of labor income.
•Let 2 denote the average propensity to consume out of property income.
Thus the consumption function can be written as follows:
21 WC (3)
Example: Let Y = $1 trillion
1 2 W C
1.0 0.1 800 200 820
1.0 0.1 500 500 550
1.0 0.7 700 300 910
1.0 0.7 800 200 940
0.9 0.7 600 400 820
W, , and C are measured in billions
Y (billions)
C (billions
0 1,000
940
910
Change in factor shares in favor of W (at the expense of ) raises the aggregate APC
Share of aggregate income received by U.S. households, 1967-97
Year
9794918885827976737067
Perc
ent
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Top 5 percent
Top 20 percent
Bottom 40 percent
www.census.gov
Mean Household Income of Quintiles, 1997
Source: Bureau of the Census
Income Quintile
HighestFourthThirdSecondLowest
Mean Inco
me (
dollars
)140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
122764
57582
37177
22098
8872
Shares of Household Income of Quintiles, 1997
Source: Bureau of the Census
Income Quintile
FifthFourthThirdSecondLowest
perc
ent
of
tota
l in
com
e60
50
40
30
20
10
0
50
23
15
9
4
The wealth effect
•How sensitive is consumer spending to changes in household wealth?
•Does the responsiveness of spending to changes in wealth vary across asset categories—e.g., equities, bonds, home equity, farm land, pension funds?
•Could a substantial “correction” in the U.S. equity market have a powerful negative wealth effect on consumption?
Issues
Change in current consumption per dollar of increase in wealth, assuming consumer are life-cycle planners and do not leave an inheritance. Source: Poterba (2000), p. 104.
After-tax rate of return
Planning Horizon
15 yrs. 30 yrs. 45 yrs.
.01 .074 .038 .027
.03 .081 .050 .040
.05 .092 .062 .053
.07 .103 .075 .069
C that satisfies
T
ttr
CW
0 )1(
Stylized facts about the wealth effect
•The marginal propensity to consume of wealth is not a stable variable—it changes from year-to-year or decade to decade.
•Households as a group are more sensitive to changes in the value of non-financial wealth than financial wealth—a counterintuitive result.
•The effect of changes in the value of financial wealth is diminished by the fact that ownership stocks and bonds is tightly concentrated among households.
•An much larger proportion of equity wealth is held indirectly(through mutual funds, pensions, insurance policies) today as compared with 1972.
Composition of Household Net Worth in the U.S.
Year
199919951989
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Asset Category
Tangible assets
Financial assets
minus equities
Market value of
equities
Net worth
42048
30241
26959
13332
6730
3683
21617
1716915634
139411179612184
Source: Poterba (2000)
Billions of 1999 dollars
Percen-tage of owners
Common stock
excluding pensions
All Commo
n Stock
Non-Equity Financial Assets
Housing equity
NetWorth
Top .5percent
41.4 37.0 24.2 10.2 25.6
Next.5 Percent
11.8 10.7 7.8 4.6 8.4
Next 4 percent
27.7 27.2 26.2 20.5 23.4
Next 5 percent
10.3 11.3 14.0 15.4 11.4
Next 10percent
7.2 9.8 13.9 20.1 12.8
Bottom 80 percent
1.7 4.1 14.0 29.3 18.5
Percent of Assets Owned by U.S. Households, 1998
Source: Poterba (2000), based on 1998 Survey of Consumer Finances
If the MPC out of stock market
wealth is
Then 2000 consumer spending would be this much higher as a result of the stock market change
from:
Dec. 89-Dec. 99
Dec. 95-Dec. 99
Dec. 97-Dec. 99
.01 96.5(1.5%) 66.0(1.0%) 37.4(0.6%)
.03 289.5 (4.5%)
196.0 (3.0%) 112.3 (1.7%)
.05 482.4 (7.4%)
330.1 (5.1%) 187.1 (2.9%)
Poterba’s estimate of the “stock market wealth effect” on consumer spending in 2000 (billions of dollars)
Source: Poterba (2000)
The role of consumer debt
•Does the build-up, on an unprecedented scale, of mortgage, revolving, and non-revolving debt on household balance sheets constitute at threat to the continued robust growth of payrolls and personal income in the United States?
Macroeconomic effects of widened credit availability
Pl a
nned
ex p
endi
t ure
(A
D)
Real GDP (Y)0
AD1
AD2
AD = Y
Y1 Y2
Liberalization of credit standards, by augmenting the spending power of middle and lower income households, reacts on the propensity to consume is the same way as a downward redistribution of income would.
Effects of household debt deflation
•Debt deflation is an episode wherein households on average allocate a sharply increased proportion of current income to debt servicing.
•Debt deflation tends to occur at the terminal point of a lengthy business cycle expansion.
Consequences of household “debt deflation”P
l ann
ed e
x pen
dit u
re (
AD
)
Real GDP (Y)0
AD1
AD2
AD = Y
Y1 Y2
Explained in the income –expenditure framework, debt deflation is manifest in a decrease in autonomous consumption--C
450
Figure 1
Consumer Credit Outstanding in the U .S.
End of June each year
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Y ear
199919971995199319911989
Bil
lio
ns
of
do
lla
rs 14001300120011001000
900800700600500400300200100
Total
Revolving
Nonrevolving
Figure 2
Consumer Debt to Income Ratio, 1993-99
Total consumer deb t divided by personal disposable income
Source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis
www.stls.frb/org/fred/data
Y ear/Qua rter
99.198.398.197.397.196.396.195.395.194.394.193.393.1
De
bt
to I
nc
om
e
.22
.21
.20
.19
.18
.17
.16
Source: Trans Union Credit Research Center
Supposition
A given rate of increase of household indebtedness is likely to be sustainable so long proportion of after-tax income claimed by the minimum debt servicing remains constant as the economy moves forward along the time axis.
It follows that the rate of increase of indebtedness is not sustainable if the proportion of income claimed by debt service is rising.
SymbolsSERVICEt Debt service in quarter t ;DPIt (Nominal) personal disposable income in quarter t ;t SERVICEt DPIt ;Revolvet Revolving consumer debt outstanding in quarter t ;Nrevolvet Non-revolving consumer debt outstanding in quarter
t ;CDEBTt The sum of Revolvet and Nrevolvet ;MDEBTt Mortgage debt outstanding in quarter t ;Interestt Minimum interest owed in quarter t ;Principlet Minimum principal owed in period t ;MaturityC Average maturity of outstanding consumer debt
obligations (measured in quarters); MaturityM Average maturity of outstanding mortgage debt
Obligations (measured in quarters) ; RC1 Average interest rate paid on revolving consumer
debt ; RC2 Average interest rate paid on non-revolving
consumer debt ,and;RM Average interest rate paid on mortgage debt.
Methodology
•The growth of consumer and mortgage debt is forecasted using a (linear) trend projection obtained from quarterly observations for each variable for a six year period (1993.1 to 1999.1).
•Having forecasted the value of outstanding debt in future quarters, the next step is to estimate quarterly debt service--that is, the minimum principal and interest payable in each quarter.
Thus we have:
SERVICEt = Interestt + Principlet [1]
The following equation was used to estimate quarterly interest payments:
Interestt =RevolvetRc1+ NrevolvetRc2 + MDEBTtRM/4 [2]
The estimate of minimum principal owed was obtained from the following equation:
Principlet = CDEBTt ÷ MaturityC + MDEBTt ÷ MaturityM [3]
Equations [2] and [3] were substituted into [1] to estimate quarterly debt service.
Table 1Assumptions of the Forecasts
Forecast DPIta Mc(QTRs) MM(QTRs) RC1(%) RC2(%) RM(%)
1 Trendb 14.8 67.5 15.65 9.5 7.75
2 Trend 14.8 67.5 16.15 10.00 8.253 0 14.8 67.5 15.65 9.5 7.754 2.5 14.8 67.5 15.65 9.5 7.755 -1.0 14.8 67.5 15.65 9.5 7.756 -1.0 14.8 67.5 16.15 10.00 8.25
a Expressed in percent per year.b Approximately 3.9 percent.
Table 2
Forecasted Values of t
YR/QTR Forecast 1 Forecast 2 Forecast 3 Forecast 4 Forecast 5 Forecast 6
2000/1 0.191 0.196 0.193 0.191 0.198 0.2032000/2 0.192 0.197 0.196 0.193 0.202 0.2072000/3 0.193 0.197 0.199 0.194 0.205 0.2102000/4 0.194 0.199 0.202 0.197 0.208 0.2142001/1 0.195 0.199 0.208 0.198 0.212 0.2182001/2 0.196 0.200 0.211 0.199 0.216 0.2212001/3 0.197 0.201 0.214 0.201 0.219 0.2252001/4 0.197 0.202 0.217 0.203 0.223 0.228
Figure 3
Income Claimed by Debt Service, 2000-2001
Forecasts 1, 2, and 3
Ratio of quarterly debt service to quarterly personal disposable income
Year/Quarter
01/401/301/201/100/400/300/200/1
Deb
t Ser
vice
to D
ispos
able
Inco
me
.220
.215
.210
.205
.200
.195
.190
.185
.180
Forecast 1
Forecast 2
Forecast 3
Figure 4
Income Claimed by Debt Service, 2000-2001
Forecasts 4, 5, and 6
Ratio of quarterly debt service to quarterly disposable income.
Year/Quarter
01/401/301/201/100/400/300/200/1Debt S
evi
ce to D
isposa
ble
Inco
me
.240
.235
.230
.225
.220
.215
.210
.205
.200
.195
.190
.185
.180
Forec ast 4
Forec ast 5
Forec ast 6
Figure 5
Debt Repa yments to Inco me Ratios by Fa mily Inc ome, 1995
Source: Kennickell et al. (1997), Table 14, p. 21
Family Income (1995 dollars)
Above 100,000
50,000-99,999
25,000-49,999
10,000-24,999
Less than 10,000
All families
Perc
ent
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Repayments to Income
Above 40 percent