Slide 1 Darwin Labour Market Labour Market Research … Market Research and Analysis Branch Slide 2 Darwin Region Slide 3 6.3 Darwin’s population is young… Source: ABS, Census

Slide 1

Overview of theDarwin Labour Market

Ivan Neville Branch Manager

Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch

Slide 2

Darwin Region

Slide 3

Darwin’s population is young…

Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011

21.0

14.5

33.7

24.5

6.3

19.3

13.3

28.0

25.4

14.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

0-14 years 15-24 years 25-44 years 45-64 years 65+ years

(%)

Darwin

Australia

Darwin’s population is young… Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 The Northern Territory is the youngest State/Territory, with a median age of 31.5 years. By comparison, Tasmania is the oldest, with a median age of 40.8 years, just ahead of South Australia, at 39.6 years (ABS Cat No 3235.0, June 2012).

Slide 4

…and growing strongly

Source: ABS Population by age and sex, regions of Australia, (Cat No. 3235.0) June 2012

2.2 %1.7 % 1.7 %

12.5 %

10.0 %

9.0 %

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Darwin Northern Territory Australia

(%)

Growth over year (%)

Growth over the last 5 years (%)

…and growing strongly Source: ABS Population by age and sex, regions of Australia, (Cat No. 3235.0) June 2012

Slide 5

Sources of population growth in the Northern Territory

Source: ABS, Migration, Australia, 2011-12 (Cat No 3412.0)

536

-155

-502

-390

-187

448 462493

5525

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

15-24 years 25-34 years 35-49 years 50-64 years 65 and over

(Pe

rso

ns)

Net interstate migration2011-12

Net overseas migration2011-12

Sources of population growth in the Northern Territory Source: ABS, Migration, Australia, 2011-12 (Cat No 3412.0) In 2011-12, the Northern Territory actually recorded negative net interstate migration (698 people). However, net overseas migration remained strong (up by 1,483).

Slide 6

Over the year to October 2013:

– Unemployment rate up from 4.0 per cent to 5.3 per cent;

– Level of unemployment up by 1,900 or (35.9 per cent)

Despite some softening, the Territory is outpacing the country:

– Employment up by 1,800 (or 1.4 per cent), compared with 0.8 per cent nationally; and

– Participation rate in the Territory up by 0.5 percentage points to 75.0 per cent - highest in Australia

Labour market conditions in the Territory

Source: ABS Labour Force, Australia, (Cat No. 6202.0)

Labour market conditions in the Territory Source: ABS Labour Force, Australia, (Cat No. 6202.0) The unemployment rate in the NT averaged just 3.7 per cent over the five years to October 2012. By comparison, Australia averaged 5.0 per cent. At 75.0 per cent, the Northern Territory’s participation rate is the highest of any State or Territory and is more than 15 percentage points higher than Tasmania (60.0 per cent).

Slide 7

Source: ABS Labour Force, Australia, (Cat No. 6291.0.55.001) 12-month averages of original data and Department of Employment Small Area Labour Markets data, June quarter 2013.

Unemployment Rate (%)

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Sep

-08

Dec

-08

Mar

-09

Jun

-09

Sep

-09

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun

-10

Sep

-10

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun

-11

Sep

-11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

Jun

-12

Sep

-12

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun

-13

(%)

Unemployment Rate (%) Source: ABS Labour Force, Australia, (Cat No. 6291.0.55.001) 12-month averages of original data and Department of Employment Small Area Labour Markets data, June quarter 2013. Darwin’s unemployment rate has consistently been below the unemployment rate in Australia and the NT.

Slide 8

Labour market disparity in the Territory

Source: Department of Employment Small Area Labour Markets data, June quarter 2013

Comparable unemployment rates (%)

Jun-12 Jun-13 Change

Darwin (C) 1.9 1.9 0.0 pts

Litchfield (S) 3.2 3.6 0.4 pts

Palmerston (C) 2.1 2.3 0.2 pts

Greater Darwin 2.1 2.2 0.1 pts

Jabiru (T) 2.8 3.3 0.5 pts

Katherine (T) 3.5 3.5 0.0 pts

Tennant Creek (T) 8.5 8.9 0.4 pts

Alice Springs (T) 2.8 2.7 -0.1 pts

Combined CGCs 14.3 15.6 1.3 pts

Northern Territory - Remainder 7.5 8 0.5 pts

Northern Territory 4.1 4.4 0.3 pts

Australia 5.2 5.4 0.2 pts

Labour market disparity in the Territory Source: Department of Employment Small Area Labour Markets data, June quarter 2013

Slide 9

Indigenous labour market outcomes - Darwin

Source: ABS, 2011 Census of Population and Housing

Indigenous Non-Indigenous

2006 2011 2006 2011

Proportion of the civilian population (%) 7.9 7.8 82.4 82.1

Unemployment rate (%) 13.2 11.7 2.9 3.1

Participation rate (%) 48.2 51.8 77.8 78.1

Employment rate (%) 41.9 45.8 75.5 75.7

Indigenous labour market outcomes – Darwin Source: ABS, 2011 Census of Population and Housing Note: The proportion of the population identified as Indigenous or non-Indigenous does not sum to 100 as a significant number do not state their Indigenous status.

Slide 10

Skills development50%

Soft skills/general employability skills 15%

Literacy and numeracy 7%

Apprenticeships and work experience 5%

Further education and training 28%

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, July 2013

Improving employment prospects for Indigenous AustraliansSuggestions from employers

Improving employment prospects for Indigenous Australians, suggestions from employers Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, July 2013 As part of the Department of Employment’s regional Surveys of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, more than 1000 employers have been asked what could be done to improve the employment prospects of Indigenous Australians. This question has been asked of employers in the Alice Springs Employment Service Area (ESA). Half of responding employers in Alice Springs identified the importance of further developing the skills of Indigenous job seekers to improving employment outcomes. Most commonly mentioned suggestions outlined the need for further education and training, while a significant minority highlighted the benefits of Indigenous job seekers improving their soft skills or general employability skills.

Slide 11

Provide employment assistance13%

Incentives to work/stay in work 3%

Advertising/information about job opportunities 3%Mentoring program 6%

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, July 2013

Improving employment prospects for Indigenous AustraliansSuggestions from employers

Improving employment prospects for Indigenous Australians, suggestions from employers Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, July 2013 As part of the Department of Employment’s regional Surveys of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, more than 1000 employers have been asked what could be done to improve the employment prospects of Indigenous Australians. This question has been asked of employers in the Alice Springs Employment Service Area (ESA). Almost one in seven responding employers in Alice Springs suggested providing some additional assistance to improve Indigenous employment outcomes. Suggestions were wide-reaching and targeted at different stages of the recruitment and employment process. Employers highlighted the need to improve Indigenous awareness of job opportunities, use third parties to facilitate the recruitment process and provide incentives and mentoring to help Indigenous workers stay in employment.

Slide 12

Employment change in Darwin – 2006 to 2011


(Per

son

s)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Full-time Part-time Full-time Part-time Full-time Part-time

Female Male Total Persons

Employment change in Darwin – 2006 to 2011 Source: ABS, 2011 Census of Population and Housing

Slide 13

(Per

son

s)

Annual employment change in Darwin(August 2012 – August 2013)


-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Full-time Part-time Full-time Part-time Full-time Part-time

Female Male Total Persons

Annual employment change in Darwin, (August 2012 – August 2013) Source: ABS, 2011 Census of Population and Housing

Slide 14

Largest employing industriesProportion of total employment


22%

9%

9%

9%

8%

6%

6%

6%

4%

7%

12%

8%

11%

8%

7%

7%

5%

9%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Public Administration and Safety

Health Care and Social Assistance

Construction

Retail Trade

Education and Training

Accommodation and Food Services

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Transport, Postal and Warehousing

Manufacturing

Darwin

Australia

Largest employing industries, Proportion of total employment Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011

Slide 15

Source: ABS Labour Force, Australia, (Cat No. 6291.0.55.003) four-quarter averages of original data , August 2013.

Construction has dominated employment growth in the Territory

-800

-600

-400

-400

100

200

400

500

700

1,400

-1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services



Retail Trade

Mining

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services

Arts and Recreation Services

Manufacturing


Construction

(Persons)

Construction has dominated employment growth in the Territory Source: ABS Labour Force, Australia, (Cat No. 6291.0.55.003) four-quarter averages of original data, August 2013.

Slide 16

Structural change in the Territory

Source: Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, October 2013 (Cat. no. 6291.0.55.001).

17.9

10.6

7.8

10.111.0

2.2

3.6

15.0

11.7 11.5

8.8 8.4

3.5 3.1

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

PublicAdministration

and Safety

Health Careand SocialAssistance

Construction Education andTraining

Retail Trade Mining Manufacturing

(%)

August 2003

August 2013

Structural change in the Territory Source: Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, October 2013 (Cat. no. 6291.0.55.001).

Slide 17

Apprentices and Trainees in the Northern Territory

Source: NCVER, June 2013

2121

1877

794

1155

940 929

323

573

202139

51 92

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2007-8 2012-13 2007-8 2012-13

Commenced Completed

(Pe

rso

ns)

Total

Technicians and Trades Workers

Construction Trades Workers

Apprentices and Trainees in the Northern Territory Source: NCVER, June 2013

Slide 18

High rates of youth disengagement15-24 year olds

Source: Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, October 2013 (Cat. no. 6291.0.55.001).

6.1 %4.8 %

15.6 %

7.4 %

0.0 %

5.0 %

10.0 %

15.0 %

20.0 %

25.0 %

Northern Territory Australia

Not in the Labour Force and Not Studying

Unemployed and Not Studying

High rates of youth disengagement 15-24 year olds Source: Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, October 2013 (Cat. no. 6291.0.55.001).

Slide 19

Source: 2013 National Assessment Program - Literacy and Numeracy Summary Report, www.nap.edu.au

30.4%

27.9%

30.1%

7.8%

5.0%6.3%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Numeracy Reading Spelling

Northern Territory

Australia

Literacy and numeracy for year 9 studentsmany students not at the national minimum standard

Literacy and Numeracy for Year 9, many students not at the national minimum standard Source: 2013 National Assessment Program - Literacy and Numeracy Summary Report, www.nap.edu.au The 2013 National Assessment Program - Literacy and Numeracy Summary Report results showed that 30.4 per cent of Year 9 students in the Northern Territory did not meet the national minimum standard for numeracy, reading and spelling, significantly higher compared with the results for Australia.

Slide 20

Educational attainment


69%

58%

75%

29%

24%

35%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Darwin Northern Territory Australia

% aged 25-34 who completed Year 12

% aged 25-34 who attained a Bachelor Degree or higher

Educational attainment Source: ABS, 2011 Census of Population and Housing

Slide 21


2.2%2.0%

2.5%

3.3%

9.7%

6.4%

92.7% 91.6% 92.7%

86.4%

80.6%

74.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Bachelor Degreeor higher

AdvancedDiploma and

Diploma Level

Certificate III & IVLevel

Year 12 orequivalent

Certificate I & IILevel

Below Year 12

Unemployment Rate

Participation Rate

Educational attainment and labour market outcomes in Darwin (persons aged 25 – 34 years)

Educational attainment and labour market outcomes in Darwin, (persons aged 25 – 34 years) Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 There is a strong relationship between educational attainment and employment outcomes. For those aged 25 to 34 years in Darwin, there were high unemployment rates for those who had completed Certificate I & II but had not completed Year 12 (9.7 per cent) and those who did not complete Year 12 without any further post school qualification (6.4 per cent). Unemployment rates were considerably lower for those who have completed a tertiary education at the Bachelor degree, Advanced Diploma and Diploma Level. It should also be noted that employment outcomes are better for those who have attained Certificate Levels III or IV. This emphasises the importance of post school education in ensuring success in gaining employment. Despite the relationship between labour market outcomes and education, people in Darwin who hold Certificate I & II Levels still have a high participation rate.

Slide 22


13.1%

27.8%

6.3%5.0%

72.7%

43.4%

83.2%80.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Certificate I & II Level No further qualification

Indigenous Unemployment Rate Non Indigenous Unemployment Rate

Indigenous Participation Rate Non Indigenous Participation Rate

Better Indigenous outcomes with a Cert I & II 25 - 34 year olds who have not completed Year 12, Northern Territory

Better Indigenous outcomes with a Cert I & II, 25 - 34 year olds who have not completed Year 12, Northern Territory Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 The unemployment rate for Indigenous persons who had not completed year 12 with a Certificate I and II was much smaller than that for Indigenous persons who had no further qualifications. The participation rate for this group was also much higher for those with a Certificate I and II compared to those with no further qualifications.

Slide 23

• Recruitment activity remains the highest of any capital city

• Recruitment difficulty

o Highest level of any capital city

o 71 per cent of recruiting employers had difficulty recruiting in the past six months

o 12.5 per cent of vacancies remained unfilled

o Low applicant numbers

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences in Capital Cities, July 2013

Recruitment activity remains strong with widespread recruitment difficulties

Recruitment activity remains strong with widespread recruitment difficulties Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences in Capital Cities, July 2013 Recruitment activity in Darwin remains the highest of any capital city despite easing from 2012 levels. The level of recruitment difficulty in Darwin is also the highest of any capital city with 71 per cent of recruiting employers had difficulty recruiting in the past 6 months, 12.5 per cent of vacancies remaining unfilled and low applicant numbers.

Slide 24

41%

Recruiting employers who experienced difficulty:

Higher skilled occupations

Lower skilled occupations

Vacancies unfilled or filled by employer compromising standard:

70%

2%

31%

1%

4%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Unfilled Vacancies

Vacancies filled with staff who did not have desired capabilities

42% of vacancies for Technicians and Trades

Workers went unfilled


Recruitment difficulty persisting

Recruitment difficulty persisting Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences in Capital Cities, July 2013 For employers recruiting for higher skilled occupations, some 70 per cent of employers experienced recruitment difficulty. Employers were least successful in filling higher skilled vacancies with 31 per cent of positions remaining unfilled. Of 31 per cent of unfilled vacancies, close to half (42 per cent) were for Technician and Trades Worker positions. Few higher skilled vacancies (4 per cent) were filled with staff who did not have the desired capabilities. For employers recruiting for lower skilled occupations, while difficulty was less common, 41 per cent still experienced difficulty. Employers were far more successful filling these positions with only 2 per cent of recent vacancies remaining unfilled and only 1 per cent of vacancies were filled with staff who did not have the desired capabilities.

Slide 25

Other occupations

30% of vacancies unfilled 43% to increase staff

Technicians and Trades

Workers

Will increase staff numbers

in the next 6 months


CONSTRUCTION

Construction Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences in Capital Cities, July 2013 Employers in the Construction industry were least successful in filling vacancies with 30 per cent of recent vacancies remaining unfilled. Of this 30 per cent, 92 per cent were for Technicians and Trades Worker positions. In the 6 months following the survey, 43 per cent of employers in the Construction industry anticipated the need to increase staff numbers.

Slide 26

20% experienced challenges

employing an apprentice or

trainee

49% lacking general work readiness/soft skills

27% don’t complete/stay long enough

28% of surveyed employers had an apprentice or trainee

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, August 2013

Apprentices and Trainees Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences in Capital Cities, July 2013 Of all employers surveyed through the Departments Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences in the six months to August 2013, 28 per cent employed an apprentice or trainee. Of these employers, 20 per cent reported experiencing challenges in employing an apprentice or trainee most commonly due to the employee lacking general work readiness/soft skills and/or the employee not staying long enough/completing their apprenticeship/traineeship.

Slide 27

Most importance placed on:

• 30% personal traits and qualities only

• 28% technical skills only

• 41% both equally important

Personal traits and qualities applicants lacked:

• Reliability

• Motivation

• Communication

• Confidence

• Teamwork

Source: DEEWR, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, All regions surveyed in the 12 months to December 2010

Basic employability skills essential

Basic employability skills essential Source: DEEWR, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, All regions surveyed in the 12 months to December 2010 Most importance placed on:

• 30% personal traits and qualities only • 28% technical skills only • 41% both equally important

Personal traits and qualities applicants lacked: • Enthusiasm • Motivation • Communication • Confidence • Teamwork

Slide 28

6.8 applicants per vacancy

2.7 applicants considered suitable

88%

Used a formal method

Internet (52%)

Newspaper (51%)

Company Website (20%)

Employers in Darwin received

the lowest average number of

applicants per vacancy of any

capital city


Most employers recruited formally

Most employers recruited formally Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences in Capital Cities, July 2013 Some 88% of vacancies in Darwin were recruited for through formal methods of recruitment (such as the Internet or Newspapers), receiving an average of 6.8 applicants per vacancy. Darwin employers received the lowest average number of applicants per vacancy of any capital city.

Slide 29

58%

17%

26%

36%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Recruitment or RetentionDifficulties / Skill Shortages

Demand for Products orServices / Economy

Darwin

All Capital Cities

GREATEST FUTURE CONCERN

35%

9%

26%

9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Increase Staff Decrease Staff

Darwin

All Capital Cities

ANTICIPATED STAFF CHANGE


Future concerns and expectations

Future concerns and expectations Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences in Capital Cities, July 2013 By far, the greatest future concern for employers in Darwin was recruitment or retention difficulty/skill shortages (58 per cent of employers), compared with 26 per cent for all capital cities. Demand for products or services and the economy was less of a concern for Darwin employers (17 per cent) compared to all capital cities (36 per cent). Over one third (35 per cent) of employers anticipate increasing staff numbers in the 6 months following the survey, higher compared with the expectation for all capital cities (26 per cent). The proportion of employers in Darwin expecting to decrease staff numbers was in line with all capital cities (both 9 per cent).

Slide 30

Labour market outlook

• Employment growth is forecast to increase by 3.0 per cent in 2013-14, before strengthening to 4.5 per cent in 2014-15.

• Against a stronger background, the unemployment rate is forecast to fall to 3.7 per cent in 2013-14, before declining further to 3.2 per cent in 2014-15.

Source: Northern Territory Government Department of Treasury and Finance

Labour market outlook Source: Northern Territory Government Department of Treasury and Finance

Slide 31

Projected employment growth (‘000s) to Nov-17 Northern Territory

Source: 2013 Department of Employment projections to November 2017.

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.5

1.0

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.8

2.8

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

Financial and Insurance Services

Manufacturing

Public Administration and Safety

Mining

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services

Electricity, Gas, Water, Waste Services

Administrative and Support Services

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing

Professional, Scientific, Technical Services


Retail Trade



Construction

Employed persons ('000s)

Projected employment growth (‘000s) to Nov-17, Northern Territory Source: 2013 Department of Employment projections to November 2017. While the national labour market outlook in the near-term is subdued, reasonably solid employment growth is expected to return over the next few years, with some industries expected to perform better than others. Over the five years to November 2017, the Department of Employment projects total employment in the Northern Territory to grow by 13,200, which equates to a growth rate of 10.5 per cent, higher than the projected growth of 7.1 per cent for Australia as a whole. Most of the job growth is projected to be concentrated in five industries: Construction; Health Care and Social Assistance; Education and Training; Retail Trade; and Transport, Postal and Warehousing. Together, these industries are expected to provide around 8700 additional jobs, which is two thirds (66.0 per cent) of total projected employment growth to November 2017.

Slide 32

Labour market conditions strong• Low unemployment rate

• High participation

• Significant recruitment activity

• Many unfilled vacancies

Challenges• Disadvantaged groups: Indigenous; disengaged youth; people with lower

levels of education and/or literacy and numeracy

• Strengthening labour market in next few years

• Future labour supply

Responding to challenges/opportunities• Education/training

• Work experience

• Apprenticeships/traineeships

• Employability Skills

• Working with employers on their needs and expectations

• Collaboration with key stakeholders

Conclusion

Slide 33

– www.employment.gov.au/lmip

– www.employment.gov.au/SkillShortages

– www.employment.gov.au/regionalreports

– www.employment.gov.au/australianjobs

– www.skillsinfo.gov.au

– www.joboutlook.gov.au

Further Information

Slide 34

Documents

Slide 1 Darwin Labour Market Labour Market Research … Market Research and Analysis Branch Slide 2 Darwin Region Slide 3 6.3 Darwin’s population is young… Source: ABS, Census