SINGAPORE REPORTCONSTRUCTION MARKETQUARTERLY UPDATE

ISSUE NO. 79 | SEPTEMBER 2017

RAFFLES HOTEL REFURBISHMENTPROJECT FEATURE

|SINGAPORE REPORT

SEPTEMBER 2017

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The Raffles Hotel is a luxury heritage-listed building in on Beach Road. This hotel has a total gross floor area of 43,400m2 and is scheduled for a grand reopening in the second half of 2018.

Since January 2017, the hotel is being enhanced in a three-part restoration and renovation programme to the main hotel building as well as the adjoining Raffles Hotel Arcade. Its historical charm will be maintained, new amenities and technology will be added, including refreshed dining concepts and new event spaces, and the introduction of new suites which will increase the total suite count from 103 to 115. The dark hardwood floors will be removed from each suite, retouched and refitted back into the floor. The hotel’s Victorian-style performance theatre Jubilee Hall will be making way for a new ballroom. There will also be a new Raffles spa in the restored Raffles Arcade.

RLB is honoured to be the quantity surveyor for this monumental development, working alongside global architecture and design firm Aedas Singapore and designer Alexandra Champalimaud.

MARKET TRENDS

SINGAPORE ECONOMY

SINGAPORE REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2017

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The Singapore gross domestic product (GDP) quickened 2.9% on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis in the second quarter, performing better than the 2.5% growth in the preceding quarter. Second quarter’s GDP growth was primarily supported by the electronics and precision engineering clusters, which expanded on the back of strong global demand for semiconductors and semiconductor-related equipment. The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) expects the manufacturing sector to continue to provide support to the Singapore economy in the second half of the year.

The construction sector contracted by 5.7% y-o-y in 2Q 2017, extending the 6.3% decline from 1Q 2017. The weak performance was due to a fall in both private sector and public sector construction output. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, the sector rebounded from the 15.0% contraction in the preceding quarter to post growth of 4.9%. The performance of the construction sector is expected to remain lacklustre in the second half of the year.

Job loss in Singapore hit a 14-year high during 1Q 2017 where total employment contracted by 8,500. The decline was led by the construction sector with 12,900 job losses and the manufacturing sector lost 4,400 jobs. The contraction is due to a decline in Work Permit Holders. In 2Q 2017, despite lower unemployment and retrenchment levels, the total employment rate also shrunk in the same quarter, according to the Ministry of Manpower (MOM). The local construction industry

saw employment decreased by 9,500 in 2Q 2017. As this was the fourth consecutive quarter of decline, market observers feared the weak job figures may limit economic growth in 2H 2017. MOM reiterated that the overall labour market outlook remains uneven across sectors and will stay modest for the rest of the year.

Local property prices are officially still in a bear market, according to government statistics. On top of the global economic uncertainties, weak rents and rising interest rates also weigh on the prospects of a property recovery. In March, the seller stamp duties were revised by the Government. It helped to fuel buying sentiments in the property market. The residential sector in particular, has seen many vigorous land bids and enthusiastic en-bloc activity in recent months. As at the start of 3Q 2017, six residential developments and an industrial complex have already been sold en-bloc - far exceeding the three deals done in all of 2016. The seven collective-sale transactions so far has a total of S$2.5 billion in value, more than double last year’s S$1 billion.

Taking into account the global and domestic economic environment, as well as the positive GDP growth of 2.7% achieved in 1H 2017, MTI narrowed the full-year growth forecast for the Singapore economy upwards to 2.0% to 3.0%, from 1.0% to 3.0%. MTI expects the economy to grow around 2.5% for 2017, higher than last year’s growth of 2.0%.

SINGAPORE REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2017

URA also reported the commercial, retail and industrial sectors continue to face lacklustre demand. Office prices and rentals, under pressure of oversupply, declined 1.4%% and 1.1% respectively in 2Q 2017 from the preceding quarter. The vacancy rate of commercial real estate to rise to a high of 12.4% island-wide after the stock of office space increased by 76,000m2 (nett) in 2Q 2017, compared with the increase of 31,000m2 in 1Q 2017.

The retail sector faces structural challenges as e-commerce continues to gain popularity, affecting more brick-and-mortar retailers. Although the total supply of island-wide retail space in 2Q 2017 (576,000m2 GFA) was lesser than in 1Q 2017 (606,000m2 GFA), the overall vacancy rate for these spaces climbed to 8.1% in 2Q 2017 from 7.7% in 1Q 2017. Prices of retail space decreased by 3.2% in 2Q 2017, after decreasing 4.0% in 1Q 2017. Rental prices went down by 1.2% in 2Q 2017, compared with the 2.9% decline in 1Q 2017.

Jurong Town Council’s (JTC) latest statistics showed that the local industrial property market remained weak in 2Q 2017. Island-wide occupancy level decreased marginally by 0.7% in 2Q 2017 but total industrial space surged by about 2 million square metres in the same quarter. JTC expects around 1.4 million square metres of industrial space to be completed in 2H 2017, and another 1.1 million square metres by the end of 2018. The rents of industrial space posted its ninth consecutive quarter of decline by dipping 0.8% from the preceding quarter. Industrial property prices decreased by 1.6% in 2Q 2017 from the preceding quarter. JTC explained that new demand is likely to remain slow as take-up continues to be mainly dominated by renewals and relocations.

There is an imbalance between the demand for land and the number of development sites available in the government land sales (GLS) programme. The local residential real estate scene has been witnessing increasing collective sales in recent months during 1H 2017. Market surveys revealed that many developers have formed upbeat sentiments of a market recovery as well as their views in terms of mitigating their commercial risks in this uncertain market. The market is expected to see more collective sales committees forming in older estates, as more developers and foreign developers will probably seek this avenue as an option for replenishing land banks. Industry observers pointed out that foreign developers may be less profit-driven as they consider Singapore a platform to exhibit their product, thus depressing the profit margins of local developers.

The Government has just released 16 sites for 2H 2017 through the GLS scheme. This is expected to yield a potential supply of 8,125 private homes, up from the 7,465 units offered in 1H 2017. The Real Estate Developers’ Association of Singapore (Redas) however, is worried that the collective sales fever could hasten effects of increasing supply and vacancy in the property market and warned that it is still too early to indicate the property market has turned positive and recovery has kicked in despite signs of the property market “trending up”.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) reported the price index for private residential properties declined 0.1% in 2Q 2017, compared with the 0.4% decline in 1Q 2017, while rentals of private residential properties fell 0.2%, compared with the 0.9% decline in 1Q 2017.

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MARKET TRENDS

SINGAPORE PROPERTY MARKET

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SINGAPORE REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2017

The construction sector contracted by 5.7% on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis in 2Q 2017, extending the 6.3% decline from 1Q 2017, on the back of a fall in both public and private sector construction output. The construction sector has declined for the fourth consecutive quarter since 3Q 2016. Due to decreasing private-sector demand, the last two quarters of 2016 contracted an average of 2.5% and deteriorated further by contracting at an of 6.0% in the first two quarters of 2017.

The public sector is expected to contribute about 70% of the total construction demand this year. The Government is increasing its spending on infrastructure projects and the Building Construction Authority (BCA) anticipates the government to award contracts worth a total of between S$20 billion and S$24 billion in 2017 up from last year’s S$15.8 billion. The majority of the funds are allocated to mega infrastructure projects like the Cross Island Line and Changi Airport Terminal 5.

Meanwhile, the BCA is looking at tightening building facade maintenance rules for both public and private buildings, to ensure that even as Singapore’s buildings age, the stay in good shape. BCA is expected to launch courses to build up the industry’s capabilties on facade inspection within 2H 2017. In addition, the BCA is working on a new framework to ensure that new buildings in Singapore are easy to maintain.

Construction material prices in 2Q 2017 have in general experienced a small downward slide from the preceding quarter due to the weak global commodity markets. On a quarterly basis, copper price fell by -2.9% and steel reinforcement bars by -4.3%. Prices of basic materials such as ready-mixed concrete and concreting sand also fell by -0.8% and -0.4%.

At present, construction costs continue to experience downward pressures against the backdrop of slower economic growth, cooling measures and limited Government Land Sales (GLS), and from the impact of regulatory and labour charges and operating costs. The foreign workers levies (FWL) most recently hiked up again on 1 July 2017.

In the short term ahead, with mounting pressures to shift from the long-time model of relying on cheap foreign labour to investing in costly technology to improve productivity, a portion of market players in the construction industry is expected to struggle on. Smaller tiered contractors may continue to face woes of dwindling contracts, and increasing competition from overseas in a shrinking job pool, thereby facing business risks from thinning profit margins and from the shortfall of work available.

As at 2Q 2017, the average RLB Tender Price Index has decreased by -3.6% on an annual basis. Based on current demand and cost trends, and barring any unforseen circumstances, overall building tender prices for 2017 is anticipated to be between -3.0% and -4.0% y-o-y.

MARKET TRENDS

SINGAPORE CONSTRUCTION MARKET

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The gross domestic product (GDP) in the US expanded at an annual rate of 3.0% in 2Q 2017. Although the figure is well below President Trump’s goal of 4.0%, the Commerce Department considered 2Q 2017’s expansion a substantial acceleration over the first quarter’s lackluster 1.2% pace and it is the economy’s best quarterly showing in two years. The US economy added 209,000 jobs in July while unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%, the lowest since March 2001. However, wage increases remained tepid. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has indicated it has plans for one more interest rate hike within 2H 2017 after it approved its second rate hike in June 2017. The Federal Reserve revised its GDP growth projection for 2017 up to 2.2% from the 2.1% forecast made in March. In International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook update in July, IMF reduced its initial forecast for the US economy from 2.3% to 2.1% for the whole of 2017.

The United Kingdom’s economic expansion in 2Q 2017 was the lowest among all the G7 nations within the European Union (EU). The UK economy achieved half the 0.6% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) expansion of the 19 member eurozone by growing 0.3% q-o-q, on the back of lower construction and manufacturing outputs, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The construction sector’s GDP dropped by 0.9% in 2Q 2017, shrinking for the second consecutive quarter. Negotiations for Brexit remains unfinalised as Britain is due to leave the EU on 29 March, 2019. Many market observers still believe Brexit will set back the UK economy, pending the nature of future trade arrangements with the EU, which is the UK’s biggest trade partner. The IMF reduced the growth forecast for the UK as it now

SINGAPORE REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2017

MARKET TRENDS

GLOBAL ECONOMY

expects the country’s economy to grow by 1.7%, compared to a previous forecast of 2.0%. It kept its estimate for 2018 unchanged at 1.5%. In the Eurozone, in June, the lowest employment rates were recorded in Germany and Malta while the highest unemployment rates were recorded in Greece and Spain. The IMF upgraded its eurozone forecast to 1.9% in its July report, from its earlier forecast of 1.7% in April. The projection for eurozone in 2018 is also moderated from 1.6% to 1.7%.

China’s economy grew 6.9% in 2Q 2017 from a year earlier, slightly faster than expected, supported by a government infrastructure spending spree and a red-hot housing market, according to their national statistics bureau (NBS). The country’s State Information Center (SIC) projects the country’s economy to grow at an annual rate of about 6.7% in 2H 2017, slowing slightly from 1H 2017. The SIC explained the small decline would reflect a number of factors including a slowdown in export growth and a cooling of investment in China’s real estate market. The Chinese government is aiming to achieve a GDP growth of around 6.5% for the whole of 2017. In July, NBS announced that it revised its GDP calculation method, but the change is not reflected in the second quarter’s GDP figures. Despite an expanding economy, China’s high debt and loans continue to grow. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in June updated its forecast for China from 6.6% to 6.7%.

The global economy showed a much stronger recovery during 1H 2017 than in the same period last year. IMF expects global economy will remain on track for the rest of the year. The projected growth rate for 2017 is anticipated to come in at 3.5%, better than the 3.2% achieved in 2016.

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Data Sources: BCA and RLB

Variances between the RLB and the BCA Tender Price index arise from differences in the index derivation methodology, the basket

of items and weightages used for each index and the variety of building projects utilised. The index basket here excludes piling works

and Mechanical & Electrical services.

Base Year 2010 = 100

* Average indices as at 2nd Quarter 2017

Note:

Data Source: BCA

Annual change 2017 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

RLB TPI -3.6% 106.2 123.2 100.2 100.0 103.1 105.7 110.5 112.0 110.2 105.3 101.5

BCA TPI -1.5% 107.1 119.9 101.3 100.0 99.7 99.8 104.6 106.8 104.0 98.0 96.5

BUILDING TENDER PRICE INDICES

Annual change 2017 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

HDB Flats -4.1% 103.6 124.3 107.2 100.0 93.0 92.0 97.8 99.8 96.0 85.8 82.3

PrivateNon-Landed

-1.8% 110.9 120.0 101.9 100.0 101.7 103.5 108.0 110.1 107.6 104.7 102.8

CommercialOffices

-2.0% 110.5 118.4 102.0 100.0 102.5 103.5 106.3 107.0 103.7 99.9 97.9

SEPTEMBER 2017|SINGAPORE REPORT

80

90

100

110

120

130

TENDER PRICE TRENDS

BCA TENDER PRICE INDICES

80

90

100

110

120

130

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

USD/TonneUSD/Tonne

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

CRUDE OIL PRICES

Data Source: BCA

Data Source: IMF

Note: Crude Oil Prices above are expressed as monthly average prices of UK Brent, Dubai and WTI oil classifications.

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STEEL REINFORCEMENT (16 - 32MM HIGH TENSILE) SUPPLY PRICES

METAL PRICES

Average 2Q 17 / 1Q 17 change

Aug16

Sep16

Oct16

Nov16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb17

Mar17

Apr17

May17

Jun17

Jul17

Aug17

Crude Oil -6.9% 45 45 49 45 52 54 54 51 52 50 46 48 50

US

D/B

arr

el

SG

D/T

on

ne

US

D/T

on

ne

LHS: Left Hand Side y-axisRHS: Right Hand Side y-axis

SINGAPORE REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2017

COMMODITY PRICE TRENDS

Average 2Q 17 / 1Q 17 change

Aug 16

Sep16

Oct16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan17

Feb17

Mar17

Apr17

May17

Jun17

Jul17

Aug17P

Steel REO -4.3% 500 496 494 553 650 646 648 643 635 610 608 644 752

Average 2Q 17 / 1Q 17 change

Aug 16

Sep16

Oct16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb17

Mar 17

Apr17

May17

Jun17

Jul17

Aug17

Copper -2.9% 4757 4706 4731 5442 5665 5737 5941 5821 5697 5591 5699 5678 6477

Aluminium +3.3% 1641 1590 1663 1734 1730 1790 1856 1901 1930 1913 1886 1903 2029

Copper (LHS)

Aluminium (RHS)

p: preliminary

Data Source: London Metal Exchange (LME)

40

45

50

55

60

50

100

150

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Aug 16 Sep16 Oct16 Nov16 Dec16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17p

S$/m3S$/Tonne

BASIC CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

Data Source: BCA

Prices of rebar other than 16-32mm dimensions may be subject to surcharge.Prices of granite and concreting sand exclude local delivery charges to concrete batching plants.The market prices of rebar (without cut & bend) are based on fi xed price supply contracts with contract period 6 months or less.The market prices of ready mixed concrete are based on contracts with non-fi xed price, fi xed price and market retail price for Grade 40 Pump.

Note:

CURRENCYEXCHANGE RATES

Data Sources: IMF, Oanda

Note: Exchange rates above are expressed in terms of currency units per US Dollar; averaged monthly from daily unit rates.

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CURRENCY UNITS PER USD

UNIT APR 17 MAR 17 JUN 17 JUL 17 AUG 17 SEP 17

Singapore Dollar $ SGD 1 1.40 1.40 1.38 1.37 1.36 1.35

Euro € EUR 1 0.93 0.90 0.83 0.87 0.85 0.84

U.K. Pound Sterling ₤ GBP 1 0.79 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.75

Australian Dollar $ AUD 1 1.33 1.35 1.30 1.29 1.26 1.25

Chinese Yuan ¥ CNY 1 6.89 6.89 6.81 6.77 6.68 6.57

Malaysian Ringgit RM MYR 1 4.41 4.32 4.28 4.29 4.29 4.21

Japanese Yen ¥ JPY 100 1.10 1.12 1.11 1.13 1.10 1.11

Myanmar Kyat K MMK 100 13.79 13.82 13.83 13.82 13.79 13.80

Indonesian Rupiah Rp IDR 1000 13.31 13.32 13.30 13.34 13.34 13.30

Vietnamese Dong ₫ VND 1000 23.00 22.96 22.96 22.96 22.97 23.02

Average 2Q17 / 1Q17 change

Aug 16

Sep 16

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb 17

Mar 17

Apr 17

May 17

Jun 17

Jul17

Aug 17P

Conc. Sand -0.4% 16.4 16.2 15.9 16.2 16.2 16.3 16.7 17.0 16.3 16.9 16.6 17.0 17.2

Granite (20mm) +6.2% 14.8 14.6 14.6 15.0 15.0 15.2 15.0 15.1 15.7 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.4

Cement +0.1% 81.1 80.5 80.1 79.3 79.0 76.8 76.3 75.9 76.5 76.2 76.5 76.0 76.1

Ready Mixed Conc. -0.8% 82.8 82.2 81.6 80.8 80.8 81.4 81.1 80.7 80.3 80.2 80.8 81.2 81.2

SINGAPORE REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2017

MATERIAL PRICE TRENDS

p: preliminaryLHS: Left Hand Side y-axis

RHS: Right Hand Side y-axis

Granite (LHS)Concreting Sand (LHS)

Cement (LHS)

Ready-Mixed Concrete (RHS)

LOCALCONSTRUCTION

PRICES

Notes:CFA - Construction Floor Area is the area of all building enclosed covered spaces measured to the outside face of the external walls including covered basement and above ground car park areas.

GFA - Gross Floor Area is the area of building enclosed covered spaces excluding car park and driveway areas calcu- lated for purposes of planning submissions.

All Singapore construction prices stated herein are as at 2nd Quarter 2017, and include a general allowance for founda-tion, carpark and external works. The price ranges herein are indicative and due consideration should be given to the impact of varying design, specifications, size, location and nature of each project when utilising this information. Prices described here may not fully reflect the extent of current market forces and tendering conditions on any specific project.

Exclusions:• Land cost • Legal and professional fees • Development charges • Authority fees • Finance costs • Loose furniture, fit-tings and works of art (unless otherwise stated) • Tenancy work • Site infrastructure work • Diversion of existing services • Green Mark cost premiums • Resident site staff cost • Models and prototypes • Future cost escalation • Goods and Services Tax

Disclaimer: While Rider Levett Bucknall LLP (“RLB”) has endeavoured to ensure the accuracy of the information and materials in this report (the “Materials”), it does not warrant its accuracy, adequacy, completeness or reasonableness and expressly disclaims liability for any errors in, or omissions therefrom. RLB shall not be liable for any damage, loss or expense whatsoever arising out of or in connection with the use or reliance on the Materials. The Materials are pro-vided for general information only. Professional advice should be obtained for your particular factual situation before making any decision. The Materials may not, in any medium, be reproduced, published, adapted, altered or otherwise used in whole or in part in any manner without the prior written consent of RLB.

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DEVELOPMENT TYPE COST PER CFA

S$/m2

LANDED RESIDENTIAL

Terrace House 2,300 – 2,700

Semi-detached House 2,400 – 3,250

Detached House 3,400 – 5,600

Cluster Housing 2,400 – 2,950

INSTITUTIONAL

Institution of Higher Learning

2,750 – 3,450

Medical Institution 4,000 – 5,450

INDUSTRIAL

Single Storey Warehouse 1,100 – 1,600

Light Industrial Building 1,200 – 1,700

Heavy Industrial Building 1,450 – 2,000

CAR PARK

Above Grade Car Park 700 – 1,400

Basement Car Park 1,500 – 2,250

HEALTHCARE

Nursing Home 1,700 – 3,150

Medical Centre 2,900 – 3,300

Hospital 3,400 – 3,800

SINGAPORE REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2017

DEVELOPMENT TYPE COST PER CFA COST PER GFA

S$/m2 S$/m2

OFFICE

Standard (outside CBD) 2,000 – 3,200 2,450 – 4,100

Standard (within CBD) 2,050 – 3,300 2,950 – 4,350

Prestige (within CBD) 2,950 – 4,150 4,100 – 5,400

HOTEL (INCLUDING FF&E)

Serviced Apartment 3,050 – 3,550 4,050 – 4,650

Three Star 3,250 – 3,650 4,050 – 4,750

Four Star 3,550 – 4,400 4,650 – 5,800

Five Star 4,250 – 5,500 5,400 – 7,300

RETAIL

Medium Quality 2,000 – 2,850 3,000 – 3,600

Good Quality 2,950 – 3,350 3,700 – 4,400

CONDOMINIUM

Medium Quality Condominium

1,950 – 2,600 2,600 – 3,350

Good Quality Condominium

2,500 – 3,150 3,350 – 4,300

Luxury Quality Condominium

3,200 – 4,350 4,350 – 5,900

Cover: Night view of Singapore’s Central Business District

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