SIMPOSIO DE GEOLOGIA

Universidad de Puerto RicoRecinto de Mayaguez28 de febrero de 2012

Aumento en el Nivel del Mar Alrededor de Puerto Rico

Aurelio MercadoDepartamento de Ciencias Marinas/Programa Sea Grant/UPRM

Data Processing: • Gap filling by Singular Spectrum Analysis (Kondrashov, D., and M. Ghil, 2006. Spatio-temporal filling of missing points in geophysical data sets. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 13:151-159.)• Filtering (lowess, running weighted averages)• Trend AnalysisSSA is a nonparametric method. It tries to overcome the problems of finite sample length and noisiness of sampled time series not by fitting an assumed model to the available series, but by using a data-adaptive basis set. (http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/tcd/ssa/) http://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_menu.shtml?type=Historic+Tide+Data&mstn=9759110 (Magueyes)http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_menu.shtml?bdate=20110601&edate=20110731&wl_sensor_hist=W5&relative=&datum=4&unit=0&shift=d&stn=9755371+San+Juan%2C+PR&type=Historic+Tide+Data&format=View+Data\ (San Juan)

GAP FILLING WITH SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSISKondrashov, D., and M. Ghil, 2006. Spatio-temporal filling of missing points in geophysical data sets.Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 13:151-159.

23 missingpoints

• Sulfur from coal-burning power plants in Asia was mainly to blame for the decrease in rate of warming of the atmosphere between 1998 and 2008 (Kaufman et al. 2011-PNAS).

• El Niño (which releases heat from the ocean back into the atmosphere) and deep circulation in the North Atlantic (which can bury heat at greater depths) combined starting in 2003, keeping excess heat out of the upper ocean (Science News, Aug 13, 2011).

Science News (Aug 13, 2011)

Nineteenth and Twentieth Century Changes in Sea LevelBy Philip L . Woodworth, W. Roland Gehre, and R . Steven Nerem

OCEANOGRAPHYV 24, No 2, 2011

SLR: Observations - Land - Global

~ 1930 --> 1980: 1.8 +/- 0.3 mm/yrOverall: 1.7 mm/yr

LA EVIDENCIA

• LS SJ 1.64 mm/yr• LS MA 1.50 mm/yr• Global LS 1.7 mm/yr

¿SE ESTA ACELERANDO?

SLR: Observations - Satellite – Global (note the large regional variability)

Contemporary Sea Level Rise. Anny Cazenave and William Llovel. Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci. 2010. 2:145–73

Projections:

Projections:

Projections:

Projections:

ZMT?????????????????????????????¿SON PUBLICAS LAS PLAYAS DE LA ISLA?

I. ¿CUAL ES EL ARGUMENTO? LA EVIDENCIA

Madeira Apartments, Ultimo Trolley

Criterio: marea alta (¿o debajo del agua?)

III. EJEMPLOS