“Silicon solar cells: Power source for the future?” · “Silicon solar cells: Power source for the future? ... Matching supply & demand . ... ultimate solution? more

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW

“Silicon solar cells:

Power source for the future?” Martin A. Green

UNSW Australia

Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics


Operation

- +


Operation

- +


Operation

- +


Operation

- +


Operation

- +

William Shockley


Operation

- +


Photovoltaics Past/ Future


Residential rooftops


Residential rooftops

March 2013


Grid parity: World view


Application (commercial buildings)


Application (large scale)

-ground mounted


Application (large scale)

-ground mounted


Annual capacity increase

EPVIA, IAEA, GWEA, Bloomberg

Coal

Gas Turbines

Photovoltaics

Nuclear

Wind

Hydro


Annual capacity increase (Bloomberg April 2015)

Bloomberg, 2013

GW GW



Bloomberg, 2013

GW GW



Bloomberg, 2013

GW GW

About 12%/year cost reduction:

. Manufacturing scale, refinement

. Improved cell performance



Bloomberg, 2013

GW GW

New York, Easter 1900



Bloomberg, 2013

GW GW





Bloomberg, 2013

GW GW




Power source for the future

50.7 Terawatt

2003


“Submerged” progress

25%

World’s

energy

1% World’s

electricity

Wind

PV

Nuclear

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Insta

lled

ca

pa

city,

GW


What needed?

1. A lot more cells

2. Ongoing cost reduction

3. Matching supply & demand


Matching supply & demand

1. Energy storage


Li ion battery


Li ion battery



1. Energy storage



1. Energy storage



1. Energy storage



1. Energy storage

2. Energy redistribution



1. Energy storage


J. Luther



1. Energy storage


J. Luther



1. Energy storage


J. Luther



1. Energy storage


J. Luther



1. Energy storage


J. Luther



1. Energy storage


J. Luther



1. Energy storage


3. Controlling demand



1. Energy storage





1. Energy storage



4. Conversion to gaseous/liquid fuel



1. Energy storage






1. Energy storage





What needed?

1. A lot more cells

2. Ongoing cost reduction

3. Matching supply & demand

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW LDK 15Mt (2GW) Si facility, Xinyu

Polysilicon


Multi- and mono-crystalline Si


Multi- and mono-crystalline Si


Poly to wafers


Poly to wafers


Poly to wafers

A. Mueller, 2006


Poly to wafers

A. Mueller, 2006

900 kg


Poly to wafers

Gen 5

Gen 6

Gen 8


Poly to wafers

Gen 5

Gen 6

Gen 8


Better ingot quality


Better ingot quality


Wafering

www.itrpv.net

Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW 0

5

10

15

20

25

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Eff

icie

ncy,

%

UNSW

First 20% cell

UNSW

Improved efficiency: lab cells


5

10

15

20

25

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Eff

icie

ncy,

%

UNSW

First 20% cell

UNSW “Black” cell 1974

Improved efficiency: lab cells


5

10

15

20

25

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Eff

icie

ncy,

%

UNSW

First 20% cell

UNSW

Improved efficiency


5

10

15

20

25

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Eff

icie

ncy,

%

UNSW

First 20% cell

UNSW

20% and beyond

“4-minute mile”


China Sunergy CTO

CSG Solar CEO

ANU CoE

Tech Transfer

UNSW PV CoE/ Suntech CTO

Suntech/ Sunergy/ JA Solar/ Sunrise Global

PV Centre of Excellence (PV CoE)

Trina, Solarfun CTO

20% and beyond


5

10

15

20

25

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Eff

icie

ncy,

%

UNSW

First 20% cell

UNSW

25% PERC cells


5

10

15

20

25

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Eff

icie

ncy,

%

UNSW

First 20% cell

UNSW

25% PERC cells


5

10

15

20

25

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Eff

icie

ncy,

%

UNSW

First 20% cell

UNSW

25% PERC cells


5

10

15

20

25

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Eff

icie

ncy,

%

UNSW

First 20% cell

UNSW

25% PERC cells


5

10

15

20

25

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Eff

icie

ncy,

%

UNSW

First 20% cell

UNSW

25% PERC cells

German

HELENE

project 22.5%

2017

24.4%


Thermodynamic efficiency limits

h ≤ (1-TASs/Es) = 93.3% (direct) = 73.7% (global)


High efficiency options


Si wafer-based stack: ultimate solution?

more

sophisticated

“active” AR

coat?


c-Si tandem

Free choice or Si


c-Si tandem

Free choice or Si

25% UNSW cell


c-Si tandem

Free choice or Si

41%? 25% UNSW cell


24%

module 30% 35%

Module efficiency BOS

15%


24%

module 30% 35%


15% 24%

module 30% 35%

15%


24%

module 30% 35%


15%

UNSW

EUPVSEC

34.2%


. Solar costs low & becoming lower; efficiencies higher

. Lowest cost option within 10 years

. Start of energy transformation

. Increasing need to match

generation and load

. New opportunities!

Thank you!

Power source for the future?

Documents

“Silicon solar cells: Power source for the future?” · “Silicon solar cells: Power source for the future? ... Matching supply & demand . ... ultimate solution? more