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Outline• Energy Production and Its Perspectives• Definition of Security and Its Categories• Security & Disruption in Energy Supply• Types of Energy Production Risks• Diversification & Security in Energy
Supply • Energy Production Factors
– Energy Diversification Factor– Energy Supply Risk Factor
• Solutions• Summing Up
Energy & Its Perspectives• World population would reach 8.2 billion in
2030, from 6 billion in 2000.• One third of the world population have no
access to electricity and another one third have only limited access.
• If the per capita energy usages in the developing and developed states are to be the same then the energy demand would increase 8 fold till 2050.
• In 2030 70% of total energy demand would form in developing countries.
• Therefore, the energy exchange trade (production, demand, supply, transport) would significantly grow.
In 2030:• Still more than 1.4 billion people have no
electricity.• Natural gas would rapidly replace other
energy resources.• Growth in natural gas usage would be limited
by advances in other energy technologies.• Flower-house emissions would increase
steeply.Conclusion:
Stability of states in near future depends primarily on their capability to produce clean and enough secure energy.
Energy & Its Perspectives
• Security can be relatively defined as:
Getting Free of Risks, Survival,
and Preservation of Basic Values
• Security is the fundamental concern for all states from military and non-military aspects.
• Non-military aspects can be divided into different categories, including Energy Production, Economic, and Environmental issues.
Definition of Security
Security and Disruption• Energy Supply and Risking Factors
Technological Limitations
Major Dependence on One or Few Technologies
for Energy Production
Geographic Limitations
Major Dependence on One or Few Countries
for Energy Imports
Energy Supply
Risk
Security and Disruption• Energy production security similar to security
itself, covers a vast and diverse concept.• Countries with major reliance on limited
energy supplies and import them would be more vulnerable to risks.
• Instabilities in energy supply and demand, technological, or geographical limitations can lead to disruptions in energy market.
• Energy importing countries usually do not face political chaos, but they are threatened by market disruptions (e.g. developed states).
Security and DisruptionOn the other hand, developing countries usually experience all three types of disruptions:
1. Disruptions Because of Political Issues: Due to Inability of Exporting Country, Internal Political Problems (Internal Chaos, Post-war Issues, etc.), External Problems, and Group Decisions of Unions,
2. Disruptions in Markets: Due to, for instance, Embargos,
3. Disruptions Due to Accidents: Natural Disasters, with no humans playing role.
Types of Energy Supply Risks
Effective Risks in Energy Supply
Non-diversifiable Risks
Diversifiable Risks
Problems in the Global Market
Problems in the Local Markets
Problems in Access to Technologies
Types of Energy Supply RisksNon-diversifiable Risks:
• Correspond to oscillations in the global market and affect a large number of producers and consumers in countries.
Diversifiable Risks:
• Correspond to those risks, against which a country can increase the security factor by taking proper policies and programs.
Diversification & Security• According to IEA, in 2030 fossil fuels would
produce about 89% of world’s energy with the current rate.
• This will be 2% above the corresponding figure at the beginning of the current century.
• At present, major available energy resources are:– Oil– Coal– Natural Gas– Nuclear Energy– Hydro-power
Energy Production Factors• For a quantitative rather than a
qualitative measurements we define two energy production factors.
Qualitative Evaluation
Quantitative Evaluation
1. Comparison to Other States
2. Position of Technology
Stability & Reliability in Energy Production
EnergySecurityFactor
Usage of Various
Technologies& Resources
EnergyDiversification
Factor
Energy Diversification FactorPrimary Energy Supply in Various Countries
(Million Ton Crude Oil)Country 1999 2000 2001 2002
USJapan
FranceCanada
South KoreaIndiaIran
IndonesiaSaudi Arabia
Turkey
2242.3516.4255.1244.4178.5502.1121.7140.690.171.0
2302.6521.6257.6350.9190.9523.6
125.00146.1105.377.5
2253.9517
266.4248.2193.9524.2134.5149.6119.771.6
2290.4516.9265.9350.0203.5538.3143
156.1126.475.4
Total World 9711.6 9963.5 10150.1 10376.4
Energy Diversification FactorPercentage of Primary Commercial Energy
Supply (Based on 2003 Statistics)
Country Hydro-
power
Nuclear
Energy
Coal Natural Gas
Oil
USJapan
FranceCanada
South KoreaIndiaIran
IndonesiaSaudi Arabia
Turkey
2.64.56.5
23.50.74.51.52.1__1.7
7.910.338.35.7
13.81.1________
24.922.24.7
10.624.153.60.5
17.6__
20.8
26.613.615.127.011.47.8
56.029.945.125.4
39.749.236.133.049.832.841.850.354.942.9
Energy Diversification Factor• To measure the diversification of various
energy resources we define the energy diversification factor d as:
Here:• N is the number of energy resources,
• xi is the percentage of the ith energy in the country’s supply.
N
i
i
N
xNd
1
1
100
Energy Diversification FactorCalculated Diversification Factors for Countries
Country Energy Diversification Factor
USJapan
FranceCanada
South KoreaIndiaIran
IndonesiaSaudi Arabia
Turkey
3.03.13.42.33.44.65.74.06.02.9
Energy Diversification Factor• Canada with the smallest and Saudi Arabia
with the largest diversification factors have respectively the most even and most uneven usage of energy resources.
• Iran has a close d-factor to that of Saudi Arabia, showing its unreasonable situation.
• Some states essentially have no capacity to produce some forms of energy, e.g. hydro-power in Saudi Arabia.
• Hence, diversification in energy production schemes should be of the primary concern for Iran.
Energy Supply Risk Factor• From the energy supply security side,
we can take quantitative measures too.• Energy supply risk factors are given
relative to crude oil for Japan as– Liquid Natural Gas: 1.94– Crude Oil: 1.00– Coal: 0.317– Nuclear Power: 0.026
• Unexpectedly, the risk factor for nuclear energy (in Japan) is much lower than other forms, being 75 times less than LNG.
Jap. J. Political Sci. 5, 1 (2004)
Energy Supply Risk Factor• This remarkable difference can be due
to Japan’s access to nuclear fuel cycle.• Therefore inability to access the
peaceful nuclear fuel cycle will be a direct cause for increasing nuclear energy’s risk factor.
• Of course, there are numerous political, regional, and global issues affecting this situation.
• In fact a precise evaluation of risk factors for every country requires a separate and detailed research.
Energy Supply Risk Factor• If we take zero risk factor for Hydro-
power and equal factors for LNG and natural gas, then we can define the total energy supply risk factor e as
where ri is the risk factor of ith energy.
N
iii xre
1100
1
Energy Supply Risk FactorCalculated Energy Supply Risk Factors
Country Energy Supply Risk Factor
USJapan
FranceCanada
South KoreaIndiaIran
IndonesiaSaudi Arabia
Turkey
0.990.830.670.890.800.641.511.141.430.99
Energy Supply Risk Factor• India and France have the smallest energy supply risk
factors:Cause:– Major reliance respectively on nuclear and coal energies (low
risk resources).
• Iran and Saudi Arabia have the largest energy supply risk factors.Cause:– Heavy reliance on high risk energy resources (fossil fuels).
Although the geographical and local benefits of these two countries are not included in this estimation, however, several compensating issues should be considered in the long term as follows in the next pages.
Energy Supply Risk Factor• Iran has huge natural gas reservoirs, but this would
not help to attain a more reasonable energy supply risk factor:
Pressure drop in many oil fields andthe necessacity of
gas reinjection
Very low internal prices, encouraging
unreasonable consumption
Heavy subsidies paid, encouraging
Illegal trade
Global limitations inusage of fossil fuelsdue to flower-house
emissions
Limitations in Long-term Usage of Natural Gas
• In general, countries having large energy diversification factors (i.e., uneven usage of resources), have large energy supply risk factors too. In both cases Iran has almost the worst situation.
• There are three inter-related solutions for Iran:
1. Diversification of Energy Resources
2. Development of Low Risk Technologies
(Coal, Hydro-power, and Nuclear Power)
3. Maximum Utilization of Renewable Energies
Solutions
SolutionsHydro-power:• Iran has not yet fully developed its hydro-
power capacities. Through the completion of existing projects, the share of this clean energy form would increase.
• Within 9 months the total installed capacity of hydro-power plants would exceed 6007MW, which constitutes 18% of total country’s electricity.
• After completion of current projects during the next twenty years, the total capacity of hydro-power plants in Iran would reach 11,584.4MW.
SolutionsNatural Gas:• Currently, European Union is considering Iran
as the best alternative for Russia to import natural gas.
• From another point of view, exports of national reservoirs such as natural gas and oil, in their crude form, results in destruction of many economic potentials as well as very low surplus benefits.
• Perhaps the best way to deal with this, is to keep the exports and therefore exchange with money to minimum, and replace it with the imports of science and technology, in the infra-structures of energy production with high efficiency, nuclear energy, renewables, and collaboration in the nuclear fusion research.
SolutionsCoal:• Current estimations show that only 50% of the
country’s coal can be used for total required electricity over the next 30 years.
• Iran’s Electricity Development Organization has the first coal plant with the Clean Coal Technology in Tabas, close to the Mazino coal mines.
• If the share of coal from the total energy supply is one-third of the current total value, then internal coal mines would last for about a century.
SolutionsNuclear Power:• Atomic Energy Organization of Iran initially
planned in 1977 for a minimum of 9000MW and maximum 19800MW nuclear power according to country needs and consultation with Stanford Research Institute.
• 2x1200MW reactors in Bushehr and 1800MW plants in Ahwaz were planned.
• After the revolution, contracts were unfortunately stopped. However Bushehr plants would be ready for operation at reduced capacity in 2 years.
Solutions• With the completion of Iran’s hydro-power
projects within the current year, energy diversification and supply risk factors would improve to 4.3 and 1.29, respectively, which show a much more favorable situation.
• Completion of Bushehr nuclear plants, Tabas coal plants, and all remaining hydro-power projects should be done in about 15 years. In this case, the energy diversification and supply risk factors would reach 3.5 and 1.09, respectively, which represent a situation quite comparable to developed states.
Solutions
Current Status of Energy Factors and Their Expected Values in Future
• For comparison, the Energy Diversification and Supply factors respectively for France and the United States are 3.4 and 0.99.
Factor Current Value
Mid-2006 2020
Diversification d-Factor
5.7 4.3 3.5
Supply e-Factor
1.51 1.29 1.09
Solutions• Renewable energies require heavy initial
investment and small energy production capacitites, which limit their usefulness.
• Considering all political aspects and the serious enviornmental issues involved with nuclear fission, the best remaining choice for energy production is the peaceful and clean NUCLEAR FUSION technology.
Breaking heavy nuclei
Attaching light nuclei
NuclearFission
NuclearFusion
NuclearPower
Summing Up• Not only diversification in energy resources of
developing countries has direct relationship to their energy supply security, but also it is a condition for sustained development as well.
• Developed countries with stable economies enjoy favorable diversified energy production among various resources and rely on low-risk energies.
• Nuclear energy, contrary to the serious political difficulties during the construction have never been, at least up to now, affected by external problems after operation.
Summing Up• From both energy diversification and
supply security views, there is a one-to-one correspondence. In general countries with large d-factors (less diversified) have large e-factors (less reliable situation) too.
• In both cases Iran is the most critical state.
• Through completion of hydro-power, coal, and nuclear projects, Iran’s energy factors would come close to the figures for developed countries.