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| P1 www.m3property.com.au Key Research Contacts: m3commentary SHOPPING CENTRES Autumn | 2018 Jennifer Williams National Director | NSW (02) 8234 8116 Casey Robinson Research Manager | QLD (07) 3620 7906 Amita Mehrotra Research Director | VIC (03) 9605 1075 Zoe Haskett Research Manager | SA (08) 7099 1807 m3property.com.au Katherine Tambouras Research Analyst | NSW (02) 8234 8103

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Page 1: SHOPPING CENTRES - m3property · 2018-10-15 · m3property Research DEPARTMENT STORES Annual retail trade in department stores fell by 0.2% over the year to February 2018, compared

| P1www.m3property.com.au

Key Research Contacts:

m3commentary SHOPPING CENTRES

Autumn | 2018

Jennifer WilliamsNational Director | NSW

(02) 8234 8116

Casey RobinsonResearch Manager | QLD

(07) 3620 7906

Amita MehrotraResearch Director | VIC

(03) 9605 1075

Zoe HaskettResearch Manager | SA

(08) 7099 1807

m3property.com.au

Katherine TambourasResearch Analyst | NSW

(02) 8234 8103

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| P2www.m3property.com.au

m3property Research

Market Overview 3

Key Retail Influences 4

Occupier Demand 5

Key Indicators 7

Retail in focus 9

Significant sales 10

Outlook 11

CONTENTS

•Retail trade growth, while having slowed, was positive

over the year to February 2018 compared to the year

prior. For the year-ending February 2017 to the year-

ending February 2018 all sectors experienced growth

except Department stores which experienced a fall in

turnover of 0.2%. The strongest growth was recorded

in the Cafes, restaurants and takeaway sector (3.7%).

•Consumer sentiment, as measured by the Westpac

Melbourne Institute, has improved and as at February

was positive.

•Specialty rentals in the major A-REIT owned centres

increased by 4.1% over the year to December 2017.

•Sale transaction activity has increased over the 12

months to March 2018, compared to the year prior.

Regional, Sub Regional and Neighbourhood centre

transactions over the year to March 2018 totalled

$5,364,005,000. This compares to $3,845,391,000

worth of sales reported the year prior.

• Investment yields across prime retail centres

continued to tighten over the year to December 2017.

Further yield tightening is expected to taper off with

bond rates rising and continued challenges hampering

income growth in the sector.

•We anticipate activity to continue to be strong over

2018 with many institutional owners divesting assets

to maximise portfolio returns.

CHANGING THE

RETAIL MIX

Regional: Major shopping centre typically

incorporating at least one full line

department store, a full line discount

department store, a supermarket and

around 100 specialty stores. GLA is over

30,000m2. Includes Super Regional, Major

Regional and Regional centres.

Sub Regional: A shopping centre generally

incorporating at least one full line discount

department store, a major supermarket and

around 40 specialty stores. GLA typically

10,000-30,000m2.

Neighbourhood: Local shopping centre

generally containing a supermarket and

specialty stores. GLA typically less than

10,000 square metres.

FY – Financial Year

DEFINITIONS

m3commentary Autumn 2018

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| P3www.m3property.com.au

The retail sector continues to face challenges such as changing consumer preferences, weak

consumer sentiment, technological changes and rising bond rates. Low interest rates have kept

purchaser demand positive, but with rising bond rates investment markets are considered near

their peak. Landlords are responding by altering their retail mix to include more food and

beverage based retailers, health and beauty and services, which are the groups performing well

in the changing consumer environment.

The m3property Shopping Centre report focuses on retailer

and investment activity in Regional, Sub Regional and

Neighbourhood centres in Australia.

Shopping centre tenant demand drivers have shown mixed

results over recent years with sentiment being volatile and

largely weak, online retail expanding, wages growth being

low and residential construction varying widely between

regions. On the positive side, population growth has

improved since the end of 2015 and employment growth

has been strong. Overall the outcome has been a slight

slowdown in retail trade. Retail conditions are expected to

be challenging in most states over the short-term, with

outcomes relying on population growth, employment levels,

wages growth and combating future issues, such as online

competition and new entrants into the market.

The government is introducing a 10% tariff on clothing,

electronics and furniture under $1,000 in value purchased

online from overseas retailers from July 1, 2018, aimed at

equalling the playing field. In practice, additional

governance may be required to ensure a positive impact on

local retailers.

Rental growth in specialty stores of A-REIT owned centres

was 4.1% over the year to December 2017, this was an

improvement in growth compared to the previous 12

months. Consequently gross occupancy costs rose slightly

to 14.4% in December 2017, from 14.1% as at December

2016.

Investment demand was positive with the volume of sales

increasing over the year to March 2018 compared to the

year prior in Regional and Neighbourhood centres,

compared to the year prior. Sub Regional centres saw

activity reduce over the same period.

Yields for shopping centres reported across the major retail

A-REITs firmed by 27 basis points over the year to

December 2017 to average 5.66%.

MARKET OVERVIEW

m3property Research

m3property Valuation

Left: Marrickville Metro SC, NSW. Top:

Canelands Central, QLD. Lower:

Rouse Hill Town Centre, NSW.

m3commentary Autumn 2018

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| P4www.m3property.com.au

ECONOMY

Momentum appears to be gathering in the Australian economy’s transition away from

growth driven by investment in the mining and resources sector towards other sectors

such as property, tourism and education. Growth continues to improve in states like

New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria and while challenges remain, conditions in parts

of Western Australia (WA), Queensland and Northern Territory (NT) are also starting to

improve. According to the Australian Treasury Budget Papers, in real terms Gross

Domestic Product is forecast to grow by 2.75% in 2017-18 and improve to 3.0% in

2018-19.

RETAIL SECTORAL CHANGES

The retail sector continues to experience major changes as demanded by consumer

behaviour and new shopping trends/technologies. The changes are resulting in

regional variations in spending and a transformation in the way we purchase goods

and services. These influences are likely to continue to drive regional differences in

retail growth over the short- to medium-term. The expansion of Amazon in Australia is

likely to result in further evolution of the retail sector in Australia over the short- to

medium-term.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment was positive in

February 2018 but lower than the January 2018 result. The index is currently at 102.7

in February, above a net balance of 100 (meaning optimists outweigh pessimists). The

decrease reported in the February survey is likely to be a result of concerns regarding

volatility of global share markets.

RETAIL BUILDING APPROVALS

Nationally, over the past year we have seen retail building approvals remain largely

stable with a slight increase of 0.7% recorded over the 12 months to January 2018 in

comparison to the year prior. The year to January 17 had seen a strong increase of

13.6% compared to the year prior. Retail development activity is still expected to

remain robust in the short-term due to approvals from 2017 which are still to be

actioned.

POPULATION

Moderate population growth continues to underpin the retail sector despite volatile

consumer sentiment and low wages growth. Australia’s Estimated Resident

Population (ERP) as at 30 September 2017 was 24,702,900 people reflecting an

annual increase of 395,600 (1.6%). The fastest population growth in the year to June

2017 was Victoria (2.4%), followed by ACT (1.8%), Queensland (1.7%) and NSW

(1.6%).

RETAIL TURNOVER

National retail turnover, in current prices (seasonally adjusted), during February 2018

was approximately $26,449,900,000 according to the ABS (April 2018). The total

turnover increased over the month of February (0.6%). Total retail spending growth for

the year-ending February 2017 to the year-ending February 2018 was 2.7%,

decreasing from 3.3% growth in the year-ending February 2016 to the year-ending

February 2017. For the year-ending February 2017 to the year-ending February 2018

all sectors experienced growth except Department stores which fell by 0.2%. The

strongest growth was recorded in the Cafés, restaurants and takeaway food services

retailing category (3.7%).

$

KEY INFLUENCES

m3property Research

m3commentary Autumn 2018

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| P5www.m3property.com.au

OCCUPIER DEMAND

m3property Research

DEPARTMENT STORES

Annual retail trade in department

stores fell by 0.2% over the year to

February 2018, compared to the year

prior, with the past quarter to

February 2018 seeing a stabilisation

in retail trade in this retail group.

Myer’s sales declined by 1.4% over

2017 compared to the year prior. It

closed three stores and handed back

space in two stores over 2017

bringing back comparable sales to a

decline of 0.2% over the year. Myer

continues to hand back space and

announced they will be closing stores

at Colonnades, SA (now closed),

Westfield Belconnen, ACT, and

Westfield Hornsby, NSW. This issue

will be explored further in the retail in

focus section.

David Jones’ sales increased by

1.0% with comparable sales

(excluding the Dick Smith

Concessions) declined by 0.7%.

David Jones actually increased their

footprint with three stores added in

2017.

David Jones are continuing to focus

on their food offering. David Jones

opened Westfield Bondi Junction,

GPT Group’s Wollongong Central

and Melbourne’s Bourke Street David

Jones Food Halls in 2017. The next

offering was Malvern Central, in

southeast Melbourne, which opened

in March 2018. David Jones are now

planning to open their first stand

alone food store in 2019 at Capital

Grand, South Yarra, Victoria.

DISCOUNT DEPARTMENT

STORES

Discount department stores (DDS)

include Kmart, BIG W and Target.

This retailer segment competes

largely on price and has benefited

from the shift in consumer

preferences for low-cost goods. In

particular, Kmart continues to

perform well due to this shift.

In the year ended December 2017

Kmart’s comparable store sales

grew 5.4%. Kmart expanded its

store network over the year to total

225 stores as at December. Five

new stores were opened. A further

11 major refurbishments were

completed over the period.

Wesfarmers plan to continue to

invest in the Kmart store network

through refurbishments and new

stores (including the conversion of a

Target store over 2018).

Target saw comparable store sales

decrease by 6.5% over 2017. Target

opened six stores over 2017 and

closed two. Target have therefore

increased their network to 307

stores. Target continues to focus on

reducing expenses.

BIG W witnessed a rise in

comparable sales of 1.3% in the year

to December 2017. BIG W

management is continuing to

implement a new strategic plan for

the chain based on rebuilding of

customer trust on price and

enhancing customer experience. At

December 2017 BIG W had 186

stores with two thirds of their network

(121 stores) having completed a light

store refresh. Over the past year one

store was added. No new stores are

planned for the next six months.

Debenhams opened in Melbourne

CBD over 2017 and plans to roll out

to other capitals, which will add

competition to both the department

and discount department stores as it

is considered mid-market.

MINI-MAJORS

The mini-major segment is defined

as retailers who occupy space

ranging from 400 to 1,500 square

metres within a shopping centre.

Although traditionally dominated by

Australian retailers such as JB HI-FI

and Rebel Sport, international brands

have become major players in the

mini-majors segment. A number of

international brands such as Zara,

H&M, Uniqlo, are currently in an

expansion phase, focusing their

attention towards centres located

along the eastern seaboard.

Competition in this segment is

expected to continue to come largely

from overseas including Decathlon,

a French sporting goods and active

wear retailer who opened a store in

Tempe, NSW in 2017. Amazon is

also set to challenge retailers in this

component of the market.

m3property Valuation:

Valley Plaza, Green Valley, NSW.

m3commentary Autumn 2018

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| P6www.m3property.com.au

SUPERMARKETS

Woolworths Ltd (Woolworths and

Woolworths Metro) (37.2%),

Wesfarmers Limited (Coles) (30.3%),

ALDI Stores Supermarkets Pty Ltd

(9.2%) and Metcash Limited (IGA,

Supa IGA, IGA X-press, IGA Fresh,

Foodland and Friendly Grocer)

(7.4%) are the major supermarket

chains operating in the competitive

food and grocery market (IBISWorld

February 2018). Other independent

supermarket chains include:

Australian United Retailers Limited

(Foodworks), SPAR Australia

Limited, Costco Wholesale Australia

Pty Ltd, Harris Farm, Tong Li.

Wesfarmers reported positive

comparable sales growth for Coles

food and liquor in the second half of

2017 (0.9%). Coles expanded and

invested in its supermarket network

during the six-month period, with 14

supermarkets opened and 35

renewals completed. As at 31

December 2017, Coles had a total of

806 supermarkets.

Woolworths reported strong

comparable sales growth for

Australian Food of 4.9% for the

second half of 2017. Woolworths

had 1,008 supermarkets in Australia

as at December 2017 having opened

net 10 supermarkets including one

Metro store. A further 37 renewals

and 35 upgrades were completed

over the December half 2017.

Woolworths plan to open a further

10-20 stores each year over the next

3-5 years.

From opening its first Australian store

in 2001 in NSW, ALDI now has an

estimated 9.2% market share and

over 500 stores nationally according

to IBISWorld, (February 2018).

ALDI’s revenue is expected to reach

an estimated $9,400,000,000 in the

2018 calendar year, which would

represent a rise of 10.6% compared

to the 2017 estimated total of

$8,500,000,000 (IBISWorld February

2018). ALDI is expected to remain a

major driver of supermarket

competition going forward.

IGA and Supa IGA, owned by

Metcash, have lost significant market

share over the past five-years due to

robust competition. It was estimated

that Metcash Limited’s supermarket

sales increased 1.3% to

$7,650,000,000 in 2016-17 but were

down 0.6% on a like-for-like basis

compared to the year prior

(IBISWorld, February 2018). Metcash

operates over 1,683 stores

nationally, after 32 new stores were

opened over the 2017 financial year.

Metcash’s IGA segment has a 7.4%

market share in Australia according

to IBISWorld (February 2018). There

were 397 Super IGAs, 823 IGAs and

206 IGA-Xpress’ at June 2017 and a

further 257 Friendly Grocer/Eziway

stores, according to the Metcash

Limited Annual Report 2017.

SPECIALTY STORES

The entrance of new retailers or

expansion of existing retailers has

offset the loss of some specialty

retailers over 2016 and into 2017,

keeping vacancies low.

Recently. retailers such as Cartridge

World, Nine West, Baby Bounce,

Maggie T, Doughnut Time, Specialty

Fashion Group and Zachary the

Label became insolvent, went into

administration or started closing

stores. On the other hand, specialty

stores such as Burger Project,

Decjuba, Hairhouse Warehouse,

Lord of the Fries, Dyson, J Crew,

COS and Freshii plan to expand or

set up operations in Australia.

Growth in the online retail sector and

the continuing expansion of Amazon

in Australia is resulting in centre

owners changing their tenant mix.

The pattern of rationalisation of

fashion and expansion of health and

beauty, services, food-based retailing

and entertainment appears to be a

continuing trend in 2018.

The food and beverage (F&B)

category has recorded strong sales

growth over the past 10-years

recording an annual average growth

rate of 6.1% per annum. Landlords

have realised the importance of

creating a stronger F&B offer to

achieve a higher F&B strike rate (the

frequency of utilisation of the F&B

component) and in turn higher rental

and asset value. F&B tenants now

occupy 10% of GLA and are

becoming a second anchor for many

developments.

OCCUPIER DEMAND

m3property Research

m3property Valuation:

Paradise Centre, Surfers Paradise,

QLD.

m3commentary Autumn 2018

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| P7www.m3property.com.au

VACANCY

The average reported vacancy rate for the major retail A-

REIT owned centres was 0.9% as at December 2017, up

slightly from 0.84% in December 2016.

While the overall fairly stable trend in vacancy is likely to be

the same, centres owned by the major A-REITs are typically

core assets that are actively managed and the broader

market vacancy is, therefore, likely to be higher.

The vacancy has largely been flat over the past six-months

on the back of the increased F&B offering in many A-REIT

owned centres.

RENTS

Annual rental growth averaged 4.1% across the major

shopping centres, owned by A-REITs in Australia over

2017. This represented an increase from 3.3% over the

year prior. The majority of growth appears to be coming

from centres increasing their focus towards food-based

retailing. The reduction in Department store size and some

stores exiting centres is likely to have a mixed impact on

rents in the short-term. Some centres may benefit from the

increase in higher paying specialty stores, whereas others

may see an extended period of decreased rent until

refurbishments are completed and new tenants sourced.

INVESTMENT DEMAND

Shopping centre sales volume lifted over the year to March

2018 to be $5,364,005,000. Sales activity rose for Regional

and Neighbourhood centres, with Sub Regional centre

activity slowing. For Regional centres this followed two

weak years where stock was tightly held. Neighbourhood

centres are benefiting from demand for convenience

centres.

Over the year to March 2018, unlisted funds accounted for

the majority of shopping centre purchases (49.9%),

followed by overseas investors (13.8%). AMP Capital, GPT

Group and GIC accounted for the largest volume of centre

sales over the year to March 2018. Shopping centre sales

activity was dominated by the three most populous States

over the year with Queensland accounting for 42.2% of

sales, NSW (30.9%) and Victoria (16.9%).

Supply of centres on the market lifted in recent months with

centres, or part shares of centres, for sale at Gateway Plaza

Leopold and Highlands Shopping Centre in Victoria; The

Strand at Coolangatta and Goldfields Plaza, Gympie in

Queensland; Kelmscott Plaza in WA and Lidcombe Centre

in NSW, among other assets.

KEY INDICATORS

m3property Research2.9

%

2.7

%

2.6

%

2.9

% 3.5

%

3.6

%

3.3

%

3.3

% 3.7

%

4.1

%

Retail Centre Rental Growth

Source: Annual A-REIT reports and presentations and m3property (March 2018)

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

Vacan

cy

rate

(%

)

Retail A-REIT Australian vacancy rate

Source: Annual A-REIT reports and presentations and m3property (March 2018)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Bill

ions (

$)

Retail Sales Volume, by Centre Type

Regional Sub Regional Neighbourhood

Source: m3property Research (*At end March 2018). Sales over $5 million

m3commentary Autumn 2018

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| P8www.m3property.com.au

INVESTMENT YIELDS INTERNAL RATES OF RETURN

KEY INDICATORS

m3property Research

m3property Valuation:

Central West, Braybrook, VIC.

For Sale:

Lidcombe Centre, NSW.

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

Av

era

ge m

ark

et

yie

ld (

%)

Shopping Centre Market Yields

Regional centres

Sub Regional centres

Neighbourhood centres

Source: m3property Research

6.00%

6.50%

7.00%

7.50%

8.00%

8.50%

Pri

me (

pri

me a

nd

su

per

pri

me)

IRR

s (

%)

Shopping Centre Prime IRRs

Regional Sub Regional

Neighbourhood

Source: m3property Research

m3commentary Autumn 2018

Centre type

Prime Cap

Rates

Q1/18

12 month

outlook

Secondary

Cap Rates

Q1/18

12 month

outlook

Prime IRRs

Q1/18

12 month

outlook

Secondary

IRRs Q1/18

12 month

outlook

Regional 4.00%-5.25% Stable 5.25%-6.50% 25-50 bp 6.25%-7.00% Stable 7.00%-7.50% 25-50 bp

Sub Regional 5.00%-6.25% Stable 6.25%-7.25% 25-50 bp 6.50%-7.25% Stable 7.25%-8.00% 25-50 bp

Neighbourhood 5.00%-6.50% Stable 6.50%-7.50% 25-50 bp 6.50%-7.50% Stable 7.50%-8.00% 25-50 bp

• Investment demand for shopping centres is

positive and supply of centres on the market

has increased.

•The tightening of Regional centre yields was

largely driven by market evidence, with three

major sales occurring over the past 12 months

providing solid evidence of where the market is

performing at current.

• Looking forward, while Prime centres are likely

to stabilise over the short-term, Secondary

centres are likely to see yields/IRRs soften.

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RETAIL IN FOCUS

m3property Research

CONVENIENCE DRIVES NEW

RETAIL

The changing Australian lifestyle

including increasing density of the

urban landscape, reduced passenger

vehicle ownership, down 0.1% over

the year to January 2017 (ABS latest

survey), increased demand for

convenience from time-poor

consumers and increased

competition from mixed-use

developments and online retail is

driving a changing retail environment.

In order to meet the challenges,

landlords are now thinking outside

the square. While changing tenancy

mixes (to include more services, food

and beverage and entertainment)

and improving access to centres to

increase convenience is seeing

positive results, some landlords are

going to greater steps to ensure they

maintain a strong customer base.

m3property Strategists track

development applications from

landlords and have noticed an

increase in applications from retail

landlords with other sector uses.

These include: childcare centres,

medical centres, hotels, large format

retailers and residential.

These new retail precincts/mixed use

developments provide several

advantages to landlords. Residential

components supply a new customer

base, hotels, medical, large format

retail and child care centres provide

convenience for customers and raise

footfall.

Examples of centres incorporating

residential include: East Village, Top

Ryde and Pacific Square in NSW

and Coorparoo Square, Queensland.

Future examples include:

• Macquarie Centre, NSW, which has

approval for offices, hotels, serviced

apartments and residential.

• The Glen Shopping Centre, Glen

Waverley, Victoria has approval for

the inclusion of over 500 units.

• Meriton’s Green Square

development, NSW includes

residential units, retail, a

multipurpose function facility gym,

swimming pool and theatre.

Melbourne Central, Chadstone and

Northlands in Victoria, Indooroopilly

Shopping Centre, Queensland and

Rouse Hill and Eastlakes in NSW are

also expected to incorporate

residential space.

Shopping centre owners such as

Stockland, ISPT, Mirvac, Scentre,

GPT and Meriton are considering

alternative uses to maximize returns.

DEPARTMENT STORES AND

SPACE HANDBACKS

Department stores have faced

difficult trading conditions over recent

years. Department store trade has

reduced by 0.2% over the year to

February 2018 and 0.9% over the

year to February 2017, compared to

the previous respective years. While

the decline in trade is slowing,

department stores continue to focus

on improving their performance. To

this end, both Myer and David Jones

have become more selective in the

centres they trade within and

continue to downsize.

Myer, for example, handed back

space in Warringah and closed

Brookside and Orange in 2017. From

2018 it is handing back space in

Cairns, Dubbo, Blacktown and Castle

Hill and exiting Colonnades (closed),

Logan, Belconnen and Hornsby.

Many landlords are seeing this as an

opportunity to bring in new anchor

tenants and/or incorporate food halls

or entertainment components to their

centres. In Orange City Centre,

Harris Scarfe is being considered to

take a large proportion of the almost

7,000 square metres vacated by

Myer and the plan is to also

incorporate a mini-major and various

specialty shops.

The benefit is potentially higher

income to owners. However, there

may be risks including:

• Precinct issues linked to tenancy

mix,

• Tenancy agreements may have

restrictive clauses regarding loss of

anchor tenants, resulting in reduced

rents or tenants being able to exit

leases, and

• Capital expenditure for

reconfiguration of single tenancy

into multiple tenancies.

Development:

Eastlakes Shopping Centre, NSW.

m3commentary Autumn 2018

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| P10www.m3property.com.au

Property Date PriceMarket

YieldCentre Type Purchaser

Kawana Shoppingworld (50%) QLD Dec 17 $186,000,000 5.50% Sub Regional ISPT

Churchill Centre North, Kilburn (50%), SA Dec 17 $42,500,000 6.26% Sub RegionalChurchill Centre North

Investment Trust 1

Toormina Gardens Shopping Centre,

NSWDec 17 $83,300,000 6.52% Sub Regional

Fort Street Real Estate Capital

Fund III

Woodcroft Shopping Centre, NSW Dec 17 $43,850,000 5.37% Neighbourhood Undisclosed

Indooroopilly Shopping Centre (50%),

QLDNov 17 $802,500,000 4.25% Super Regional

AMP Capital (ASCF and

ADPF)

Rockingham Shopping Centre (50%), WA Nov 17 $600,000,000 5.63% Regional AMP Capital

Bathurst City Centre, NSW Oct 17 $71,150,000 6.26% Neighbourhood QIC

Stockland Corrimal, NSW Oct 17 $69,250,000 6.83% Neighbourhood Lederer Group

Benowa Village, QLD Oct 17 $49,500,000 5.03% Neighbourhood Overseas Investor

Port Pirie Plaza, SA Sep 17 $32,050,000 7.63% Sub Regional Primewest

Lakeside Square, Pakenham VIC Jul 17 $30,380,000 5.69% Neighbourhood Private Investor

Marketown East, Newcastle West, NSW Jul 17 $95,250,000 5.78% Sub Regional Sunsuper (AMP Capital)

Marketown West, Newcastle West, NSW Jul 17 $68,000,000 5.77% Neighbourhood Sunsuper (AMP Capital)

Highpoint Shopping Centre, Maribyrnong

(25%), VICJul 17 $660,000,000 4.21% Regional GPT Group

Please contact one of our Retail Valuers for detailed sales analyses.

SIGNIFICANT SALES TO DATE

m3property Research

m3property:

Left: Sale Rockingham City Shopping

Centre WA. Right Top: Valuation

Churchill Centre, Kilburn, SA. Right

Bottom: Valuation Mitcham Square

Shopping Centre.

m3commentary Autumn 2018

Page 11: SHOPPING CENTRES - m3property · 2018-10-15 · m3property Research DEPARTMENT STORES Annual retail trade in department stores fell by 0.2% over the year to February 2018, compared

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KEY RETAIL VALUATION

CONTACTS

Retail floor-space supply is set to increase over 2018,

given high levels of building approvals, ongoing

redevelopment and repositioning of assets. Supply is,

however, likely to slow over the medium term.

The Federal Government is forecasting household

consumption to grow by 3.0% in 2017-18 (Mid-Year

Economic and Fiscal Outlook, Budget 2016-17) due to

the combination of low interest rates and population

growth being tempered by weak wages growth and

slowing dwelling price growth.

With low interest rates continuing, an expected lower

Australian dollar and a gradual transition to non-mining

sectors, stronger consumer confidence is expected.

Westpac-Melbourne Institute’s measure of consumer

confidence has improved over 2018 to date, with

pessimists outweighing optimists at each of the monthly

survey’s completed this year.

In terms of tenants in retail centres in Australia, demand

is likely to continue to be strong for health and beauty

services and F&B based retailers over 2018. This is

likely to continue to be at the expense of fashion retailers

and department stores. Centre owners are likely to

continue to adjust their retail mix in the face of changing

consumer preferences and Amazon’s expansion in

Australia.

Retail yields are likely to be fairly stable for prime stock

and continue to soften for secondary stock.

OUTLOOKSHOPPING CENTRES

DISCLAIMER

© m3property Strategists Australia. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation

This report is for information purposes only and has been derived, in part, from sources other than m3property Strategists and does not constitute advice. In

passing on this information, m3property Strategists makes no representation that any information or assumption contained in this material is accurate or complete.

To the extent that this material contains any statement as to the future, it is simply an estimate or opinion based on information available to m3property Strategists

at that time and contains assumptions, which may be incorrect. m3property Strategists makes no representation that any such statements are, or will be, accurate.

Any unauthorised use or redistribution of part, or all, of this report is prohibited.

Heath Crampton

National Director | NSW

(02) 8234 8113

Shaun O’Sullivan

Director | VIC

(03) 8234 8113

Ross Perkins

Managing Director | QLD

(07) 3620 7901

Simon Hickin

Director | SA

(08) 7099 1812

m3property Research

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coverage in all States and

Territories.