Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Shell Egg and Egg Product Market Review
Rick Brown Randy Pesciotta Brian Moscogiuri
@UBEGG
• 2014 Shell Egg & Egg Product Review
• Year-to-Date 2015 Review
• Domestic Per Capita Consumption
• Exports & Strength of the Dollar
• EU Egg Products Market Review
• Impact of California Proposition 2
• Cage-Free vs. Enriched Colony
• Develop Cage-Free Quote
• Price Discovery Survey
275
280
285
290
295
300
305
310
315
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mill
ion
s o
f La
yers
US Table Egg Type Layer Numbers & 2015 Projections Source: USDA / Projections by Egg Industry Center
2015 Actual
2014
5-Yr-Avg
275
280
285
290
295
300
305
310
315
320
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mill
ion
s o
f La
yers
US Table Egg Type Layer Numbers & 2015 Projections Source: USDA / Projections by Egg Industry Center
2015 Projected
2015 Actual
2014
5-Yr-Avg
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
$/d
zn.
Mill
ion
s o
f La
yers
Average Egg/Type Layers Theoretical 3 Mil Hen Increase Average MW UB Large
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
US Table Eggs per 100 Layers Source Data: USDA
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
$/d
zn. 2014
2013
5-Yr-Avg
Post-Holiday Molt/Slaughter
+ Weather
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
$/d
zn. 2014
2013
5-Yr-Avg
CN and MX Exports
Post-Holiday Molt/Slaughter
+ Weather
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
$/d
zn. 2014
2013
5-Yr-Avg
Record Easter Rally to $1.80
+27.6% CN and MX
Exports
Post-Holiday Molt/Slaughter
+ Weather
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
$/d
zn. 2014
2013
5-Yr-Avg
Post-Holiday Correction
-29.4%
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
$/d
zn. 2014
2013
5-Yr-Avg
200 Load Export to MX Announced
Post-Holiday Correction
-29.4%
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
$/d
zn. 2014
2013
5-Yr-Avg
Prices Temper Domestic Demand
200 Load Export to MX Announced
Post-Holiday Correction
-29.4%
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
$/d
zn.
2014
2013
5-Yr-Avg
Exports Continue
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
$/d
zn.
2014
2013
5-Yr-Avg
Follows Seasonal
Trends
Exports Continue
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
2.00
2.10
2.20
2.30
2.40
$/d
zn.
2014
2013
5-Yr-Avg
Market Stability +
Exports to CN
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
2.00
2.10
2.20
2.30
2.40
$/d
zn.
2014
2013
5-Yr-Avg
Thanksgiving + Consistent
Export
Market Stability +
Exports to CN
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
2.00
2.10
2.20
2.30
2.40
$/d
zn.
2014
2013
5-Yr-Avg
Record Exports Mainly to CN
Thanksgiving + Consistent
Export
Market Stability +
Exports to CN
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
$/d
zn. 2015
2014
2013
5-Yr-Avg
Post-Holiday Bottom at 2014
Low
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
$/d
zn. 2015
2014
2013
5-Yr-Avg
Winter Weather Flock Rotation
California
Post-Holiday Bottom at 2014
Low
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
$/d
zn. 2015
2014
2013
5-Yr-Avg
Record Easter Levels
Post-Holiday Bottom at 2015
Low
Winter Weather Flock Rotation
California
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000 Ja
n-1
0
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-
10
Sep
-10
No
v-1
0
Jan
-11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-
11
Sep
-11
No
v-1
1
Jan
-12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-
14
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Do
zen
s
USDA Monthly Egg Exports Including Products
USDA Monthly Egg Exports Including Products
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Do
zen
s
2015 2014 (340.8 Million) 2013 (324.9 Million) 5-Yr-Avg (272.8 Million)
2014 : 4,370 Loads
2015 : 320 Loads
2014 : 3,040 Loads
2015 : 870 Loads
More Than 7,000 Loads Moved Into MX and CN During 2014
5 Year Average
Fairly Balanced
Canada 26%
Mexico 20%
Japan 14%
EU(5) 10%
Hong Kong 16%
Other 14%
5 Year Average 2013
Fairly Balanced AI in Mexico
Canada 26%
Mexico 20%
Japan 14%
EU(5) 10%
Hong Kong 16%
Other 14%
Canada 20%
Mexico 28%
Japan 13%
EU(5) 4%
Hong Kong 16%
Other 19%
5 Year Average 2013 2014
Fairly Balanced AI in Mexico Records To CN
Canada 26%
Mexico 20%
Japan 14%
EU(5) 10%
Hong Kong 16%
Other 14%
Canada 20%
Mexico 28%
Japan 13%
EU(5) 4%
Hong Kong 16%
Other 19%
Canada 32%
Mexico 23%
Japan 7%
EU(5) 4%
Hong Kong 15%
Other 19%
5 Year Average 2013 2014
Fairly Balanced AI in Mexico Records To CN Easter Prep
Canada 26%
Mexico 20%
Japan 14%
EU(5) 10%
Hong Kong 16%
Other 14%
Canada 20%
Mexico 28%
Japan 13%
EU(5) 4%
Hong Kong 16%
Other 19%
Canada 32%
Mexico 23%
Japan 7%
EU(5) 4%
Hong Kong 15%
Other 19%
Canada 15%
Mexico 41%
Japan 11%
EU(5) 4%
Hong Kong 13%
Other 16%
15.6 Million Layers Were Needed to Service Exports in 2014
5% of Total Layers
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
Jan
-10
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-
10
Sep
-10
No
v-1
0
Jan
-11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-
11
Sep
-11
No
v-1
1
Jan
-12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-
14
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Mar
-15
Foreign Exchange Rates, European Union, Euro
94 EU Cents
68 EU Cents
Using $1 a Dozen, US
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Jan
-10
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-
10
Sep
-10
No
v-1
0
Jan
-11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-
11
Sep
-11
No
v-1
1
Jan
-12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-
14
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Mar
-15
Foreign Exchange Rates, Mexico, Peso
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
Jan
-10
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-
10
Sep
-10
No
v-1
0
Jan
-11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-
11
Sep
-11
No
v-1
1
Jan
-12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-
14
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Mar
-15
Foreign Exchange Rates, Canada, Dollar
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan
-10
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-
10
Sep
-10
No
v-1
0
Jan
-11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-
11
Sep
-11
No
v-1
1
Jan
-12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-
14
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Mar
-15
Foreign Exchange Rates, Japan, Yen
7.72
7.73
7.74
7.75
7.76
7.77
7.78
7.79
7.80
7.81
Jan
-10
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-
10
Sep
-10
No
v-1
0
Jan
-11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-
11
Sep
-11
No
v-1
1
Jan
-12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-
14
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Mar
-15
Foreign Exchange Rates, Hong Kong, Dollar
Dollar Strength Could Temper Recent Export Trends
45,000,000
50,000,000
55,000,000
60,000,000
65,000,000
70,000,000
75,000,000
80,000,000
Source: USDA
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
Breaking Stock Whole Yolk Whites
$/l
bs.
2011
2012
2013
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
Breaking Stock Whole Yolk Whites
$/l
bs.
2011
2012
2013
2014
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$/l
bs.
Comparison of Whites and Yolk to Whole Egg Prices
5 yr avg
2015
2014
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Breaking Stock Whole Yolk Whites
$/l
bs.
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 YTD
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Whole Yolk Whites
$/l
bs.
2011
2012
2013
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
Whole Yolk Whites
$/l
bs.
2011
2012
2013
2014
December Dried Egg Inventory Source Data : USDA
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000 Ja
n-0
5
May
-05
Sep
-05
Jan
-06
May
-06
Sep
-06
Jan
-07
May
-07
Sep
-07
Jan
-08
May
-08
Sep
-08
Jan
-09
May
-09
Sep
-09
Jan
-10
May
-10
Sep
-10
Jan
-11
May
-11
Sep
-11
Jan
-12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan
-13
May
-13
Sep
-13
Jan
-14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan
-15
Po
un
ds
in T
ho
usa
nd
s
March 2008
Whole 20%
Whites 49%
Yolk 23%
Blends 8%
March Ending Dried Egg Inventory Source Data : USDA
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
Whole Yolk Whites
$/l
bs.
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 YTD
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
Jan
-10
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-
10
Sep
-10
No
v-1
0
Jan
-11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-
11
Sep
-11
No
v-1
1
Jan
-12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-
14
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Mar
-15
$/l
bs.
Dried Whole Egg
US
EU
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
Jan
-10
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-
10
Sep
-10
No
v-1
0
Jan
-11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-
11
Sep
-11
No
v-1
1
Jan
-12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-
14
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Mar
-15
$/l
bs.
Egg Whites
US
EU
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
Jan
-10
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-
10
Sep
-10
No
v-1
0
Jan
-11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-
11
Sep
-11
No
v-1
1
Jan
-12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-
14
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Mar
-15
$/l
bs.
Dried Yolk
US
EU
EU Cage Ban
US Egg White Highs
US Exports to EU Appear to be Declining EU Becoming More Competitive Globally
• Eggs are Healthy-er Again • Diet Trends • Moving Out of Breakfast • Clean Labels • Competing Proteins
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7 UB Beef Index
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4 UB Pork Cutout
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9 UB Chicken Index
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5 UB Salmon Index
$/lbs.
Foodservice Business Could Help Fill Gaps if Exports Slow
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
$/d
zn. 2013
2014
2015
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
$/d
zn.
CA vs. MW Large Spread
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
Laye
rs in
Th
ou
san
ds
Layers In California Source: USDA Chickens and Eggs
Evolution of Production
OVER 70 CONFIRMED CASES
SINCE JANUARY 1, 2015
HIGH PATH AI
Commercial Turkey Commercial Chicken Other
Commercial Turkey Commercial Chicken Other
For More Information on Any of the Topics Covered in Today’s Presentation or to
Discuss the Markets:
Please Call 732-240-5330 or E-mail:
Rick Brown – [email protected]
Randy Pesciotta – [email protected]
Brian Moscogiuri – [email protected]
![Untitled-1 [peggsindia.com]peggsindia.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Peggs-Powder-Egg-Products.pdf · Egg 3. Egg Egg Egg Certificate of Compliance Raja Fat & Feeds Pvt. Ltd. ISO 22000:2005](https://img.pdfslide.us/doc/110x75/5eb9003560297108e672792b/untitled-1-egg-3-egg-egg-egg-certificate-of-compliance-raja-fat-feeds.jpg)
