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© 2002 Arbitron Inc.
Roberta McConochie, Ph.D.Arbitron Inc.
Tony JarvisMediaCom/Grey Global Group
Linda DupreeArbitron Inc.
Sex, Drugs & Rock-n-Roll�Or How �PPPM� Results Reveal Radio�s �Real� Rock-n-Reach & New �Roll� in the Media Mix
© 2002 Arbitron Inc.
Roberta McConochie, Ph.D.Arbitron Inc.
Tony JarvisMediaCom/Grey Global Group
Linda DupreeArbitron Inc.
Sex, Drugs & Rock-n-Roll & �PPPM� Results Reveal..How ARF/ESOMAR Conference Attendees Spent Their Time on the Beach in Cannes!
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3 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.3
Pardon!
Not appropriate for ESOMAR!
4 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
Radio Data/Models Outmoded?
� Lack continuous metered measurement
� One-week diaries fail to capture �real� station/weekly cumes
� R/F models invalid?
� Duplication models lack coherent cross-media information
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5 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
Portable People Meter Results...� Improve upon previous multiweek research
and will contribute to radio data/models
� Show that �real� radio cume » builds quickly and » continues to build over time» more so than current models estimate
� Begin to explain large station-to-station variations in cume build
� Teach us about cross-media reach» radio and television �duplication� for
media/marketing targets
6 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
PPM �Real� Reach Revealed...� PPM February data slice stable, consistent
� As expected�PPM reach exceeds diary�s by day 28: Index 235
� Surprises:»Majority of PPM �advantage� not continuous: occurs in first week!
»Enormous station-to-station variation;not consistent as implied by current models!
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7 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
Mean Cume Gains for 34 Philadelphia Stations: Diary, Fall �01; PPM Feb. 2002
PPM�s Multi-week Cume �Advantage� Over Diary Estimation: Index 235
Mean Mean Point IndexDiary Cume PPM Cume Difference to Diary
Day 7
Day 14
Day 21
Day 28 9.95 23.42 13.47 235
8 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
Mean Cume Gains for 34 Philadelphia Stations: Diary, Fall �01; PPM Feb. 2002
PPM�s Multi-week Cume �Advantage� Concentrates in Week One
Mean Mean Point IndexDiary Cume PPM Cume Difference to Diary
Day 7 7.51 16.48 8.97 219
Day 14 8.74 19.82 11.08 227
Day 21 9.45 21.93 12.48 232
Day 28 9.95 23.42 13.47 235
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9 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
-505
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100
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Reac
hFor 34 Philadelphia Radio Stations, February 2002
High Side of Range
Low Side of Range
Average Added Points
Large Range of Individual-Station PPM �Addition� to Diary-Estimated Cume
10 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
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All News: AMMultiweek Accumulation Comparisons
+2.5
Example One: Small Gain
Diary, 1st 7 DaysPPM Weekly, Days 1-7
Diary, 28 Days ModeledPPM Weekly, Days 8-28
Maximi$er SchedulePPM 28-Day Panel
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11 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
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Talk/Personality: AMMultiweek Accumulation Comparisons
+0.8
Example Two: Virtually No Gain
Diary, 1st 7 DaysPPM Weekly, Days 1-7
Diary, 28 Days ModeledPPM Weekly, Days 8-28
Maximi$er SchedulePPM 28-Day Panel
12 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
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Classic Rock: FMMultiweek Accumulation Comparisons
+22.3
Example Three: Much Larger Gain
Diary, 1st 7 DaysPPM Weekly, Days 1-7
Diary, 28 Days ModeledPPM Weekly, Days 8-28
Maximi$er SchedulePPM 28-Day Panel
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13 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
Talk Format
Audio and video by ArtVuelo Video
14 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
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Diary, 1st 7 Days Diary, 28 Days Modeled Maximi$er SchedulePPM Weekly, Days 1-7 PPM Weekly, Days 8-28 PPM 28-Day Panel
Talk/Personality: AMMultiweek Accumulation Comparisons
+0.8
Low End of Range for Talk Format
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15 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
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Diary, 1st 7 Days Diary, 28 Days Modeled Maximi$er SchedulePPM Weekly, Days 1-7 PPM Weekly, Days 8-28 PPM 28-Day Panel
News/Talk/Information: FM Multiweek Accumulation Comparisons
High End of Range for Talk Format
+8.2
16 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
Urban Format
Audio and video by ArtVuelo Video
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17 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
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Diary, 1st 7 Days Diary, 28 Days Modeled Maximi$er SchedulePPM Weekly, Days 1-7 PPM Weekly, Days 8-28 PPM 28-Day Panel
Urban Contemporary: FM Multiweek Accumulation Comparisons
+0.4
Low End of Range for Urban Format
18 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
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Diary, 1st 7 Days Diary, 28 Days Modeled Maximi$er SchedulePPM Weekly, Days 1-7 PPM Weekly, Days 8-28 PPM 28-Day Panel
+15.7
High End of Range for Urban FormatHot Adult Contemporary: FM Multiweek Accumulation Comparisons
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19 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
Classic/Contemporary Format
Audio with permission from WRRK-FM, Classic Rock. Video by ArtVuelo Video
20 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
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Diary, 1st 7 Days Diary, 28 Days Modeled Maximi$er SchedulePPM Weekly, Days 1-7 PPM Weekly, Days 8-28 PPM 28-Day Panel
+1.7
Classic Rock: FM Multiweek Accumulation Comparisons
Low End of Range for Classic/Contemporary Format
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21 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
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Diary, 1st 7 Days Diary, 28 Days Modeled Maximi$er SchedulePPM Weekly, Days 1-7 PPM Weekly, Days 8-28 PPM 28-Day Panel
+35.6
Adult Contemporary: FM Multiweek Accumulation Comparisons
High End of Range for Classic/Contemporary Format
22 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
PPM �Real� Reach Revealed...� Narrowly targeted stations show
much smaller range of gains
� Wider-appeal stations show large range of PPM gains
� Gains not consistent across stations as implied by current models!
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23 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
PPM�s MultimediaRevelations
� PPM�s �real� multimedia data
� Point the way to powerful and cost-efficient multimedia reach
24 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
Super Bowl: Most Expensive Show of the Year and One of the Top-Rated in Any Given Year
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
Source: Nielsen Media Research
Hou
seho
ld R
atin
g
Super Bowl Trends
Cos
t of a
:30
Ad ($
mill
ions
)
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25 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
Super Bowl
Used with permission from the NFL. ArtVuelo Video
26 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
Super Bowl Multimedia Reach Highest in Morning Drive
� Large portion of Men 18-49 Super Bowl viewers reachable via ...»Five individual radio stations
»Both before and after the Super Bowl
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27 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
Substantial Multimedia Reach: Super Bowl and Radio Audience
0 20 40 60 80 100
February 6
January 31
Total Cume Percent
Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience, 8:00-9:00, Jan. 31 & Feb. 6, 2002, Philadelphia PPM Panel
Top
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th to 20th
28 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
Summary Implications:No Conclusions as Yet!
� Current radio reach estimation appears neither accurate nor adequate
� Station-specific models probablymore appropriate than universal factors
� The promise of radio�s �real� cume, achieved in first week»Radio could match other media in contribution to reach and recency goals!
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29 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
PPM Contributions
� PPM provides better basis » for both radio & TV reach/frequency »on their own or in combination
� Radio�s PPM �rock-n� reach may change its �roll� in the media mix
� Potential economic ripple effects »on planning, buying & selling
30 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.
Á la Prochaine!
