Set the Investment & Financial Strategy in Iranian Automotive Industry Holding Company

8/4/2019 Set the Investment & Financial Strategy in Iranian Automotive Industry Holding Company

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International Bulletin of Business AdministrationISSN: 1451-243X Issue 11 (2011) EuroJournals, Inc. 2011http://www.eurojournals.com

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Set the Investment & Financial Strategy in Iranian AutomotiveIndustry Holding Company

Behzad NaseriCorrespondent Author, Master of Operational Research

Accounting and Management Faculty Allame Tabatabaei University

Tehran, IranE-mail: [email protected]

Hojjatollah SaydiProfessor and Member of the Accounting and Management Faculty

Shomal Branch, Azad University, Tehran, IranE-mail: [email protected]

Abolfazl Kazzazi Assistant Professor and Member of the Accountancy and Management Faculty

Allame Tabatabaei University, Tehran, IranE-mail: [email protected]

AbstractAutomotive industry has been recognized as one of the heavy industries in whole

the world; whereas rate of advancement of this industry is accounted as an index of determining rate of countries' advancement. So determination of financial strategy(especially investment strategy) of this industry is very important. Therefore forward-looking uncertainties with any other time are potentially more complex, sensitive anddangerous. With increasing uncertainty and complexity of probable futures, anticipationsand analysis of previous methods has been replaced on focusing foresight. Hence, scenario

planning has been used as one of the most remarkable methods of foresight in this article.In this article, critical uncertainties were firstly recognized by method of Delphi

fuzzy and then five final scenarios were distinguished through scenario making, advancingand logical screening of them (that involves the most part of future). Afterwards, view

points of the reference strategies, quadrupled financial strategies in any scenario arerecognized by the method of Delphi fuzzy. Finally, financial strategies are determined bycommon points and their analysis. Regardless different scenarios in the future, this strategyis able to set specialized-holding companies of Iran automotive industries in the suitable

place.

Keywords: financial strategies, investment strategies, specialized holding companies,automotive industry, reference points of strategy, scenario planning, andmethod of Delphi fuzzy


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1. IntroductionIssue of financial and investment strategies of automotive industry not only has been paid attention bymanagers and experts of this industry, but also any time that the discussion of this industry has been

propounded, major politicians asked automotive industry's managers of the strategic documentregistration to determine the most important factors. By illustrating path of automotive industryadvancement in Iran, during future years, major automobile makers of the country should seek acommon aim in order to achieve 3.5% of market share in the neighbor markets and world.

Most of industries have been established on the basis of monetary and financial problems, soautomotive industry is not exemption from this rule. This matter caused one of the most complexeconomic puzzles in automotive industry to be constituted. Hence, from one side, this industry seemsto be fragile in front of global trade and market competition and on the other side, it is assessed

powerful and abreast by the presentation of statistics and productive programs have being anticipatedand performed through complete keeping of internal market and gaining a part of global markets.

2. Research BackgroundsPresent documents show that most of organizations use scenario planning in terms of assistant to theanticipation of special threats; for example in cases like: threats resulted from environmental pressures,

political alternations or constitutional alternations of industries.We can refer to experience of I. C. L. Company as one of operation of scenario planning in the

field of business. I. C. L. Company firstly experienced scenario planning in 1993. This operation was a part of complete evaluations of the company regarding applicable powers on the industries of information technology and review of I. C. L. Company's outlook about the future. It evaluated 4functions of scenarios that are:

Using scenarios in data markets Analysis of sensitiveness/ evaluation of danger of an investment portfolio Regulation of scenarios to an analysis of MA/C and PIMS Using scenarios in order to constitute a stronger strategy

There are some sample of operating process of scenario in fulfilled research is appeared thatare:

Stable strategic planning by scenario planning and system of fuzzy extrapolation, PayamHanafizadeh, Seyed Mohammed A'rabi, Ali Hashemi, Allameh Tabataba'i University

Selection of informative systems in indefinite environments by reconciliation of scenario planning method, principle design and Delphi fuzzy, Payam Hanafizadeh, Esma'il Salahi parvin, Allameh Tabataba'i University

Potential stand of Iranian ports of Persian Golf in the serial of international marine broadness, Kamran Feyzi, Ahmad Derakhshan, Allameh Tabataba'i University.

Usage of scenario planning for selection of strategy in Ghadir Investment Company,Payam Hanafizadeh, Abolfazl Kazazi, Azam Jalili Abolhasani, Allameh Tabataba'i

University.

3. Research Assumptions and QuestionsTurning points of this research is to be constructed in the form of research questions in order to achievethe principle aim of the research by answering those questions, so that this goal really is the samedetermination of financial and investment strategies in the specialized- holding companies of Iranautomotive industry. Questions of the research are:

What principle stimulant powers are in the field of future automotive industry (keyuncertainties)?


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What probable scenarios draw future of automotive industry?Determination of probable financial strategies resulting from scenario process in the field of

Iran automotive industryIt is necessary to mention that this research has been designed to answer the above questions

and principle aims of this research are ascertained with answering the aforesaid questions.

4. Method of ResearchScientific researchers are divided into two bases, meaning 1. Aim, 2. Nature and method. Aim isdivided into 3 groups of substantial, operational and scientific; and nature is divided into 5 groups of historical, descriptive, conjunctional, experimental and scientific. It is certainly possible to mentionother cases under different titles being regarded subclass of one of quintuple groups like subjectiveresearch that is accounted as subclass of descriptive researches.

In performance of the research and in order to gain recognition, a collection of subjects(assumptions or questions of research) should be gathered; and concerned aims or answer can be

provided by gathering information, purifying and examining them. This issue guides process of research and helps to ascertain recognition. On this basis, method of research is the instrument or wayof determining the issue that how to get the suitable answer through research subjects. In other words,method of research provides frame of operations or investigative activities so that to achieve aim of research and examine assumption or answer the questions of research.

4.1. Type of Research MethodIn this research, method of planning scenario has been used. Hence, in division of scientific researchon the basis of aim, this research is classed as operational type, whereas operational research is aresearch that its aim is to advance operational knowledge in a special field and moves towardsscientific operation.In division of scientific research on the basis of nature and method, this research is a descriptiveresearch, whereas according definition of descriptive research in operational type, results of thisresearch in decision making, diplomacy and planning being in domain of management are used.Having management knowledge as well as reformation of variables is necessary in the process of decision making and without recognition of social situation, attitudes, quality of variables and effectingfactors regarding management cannot enter in the field of a decision or politics. Descriptive research isnecessary in order to recognize these issues. Descriptive research involves a collection of methods thattheir aim is to describe situations or investigative phenomenon. Fulfillment of descriptive research can

be through more identification of present situation or assistance to the process of decision making. Inthese kinds of researches, methods of laboratory study, investigation of writings, content of issues andfield methods like questioners, interview and observation are used.

4.2. Method of Gathering Information and Data

Method of gathering information in this research involves:Laboratory studies involve investigating and studying articles, books, researches, studies and regular performed analysis with the issue of researchField method of questioner in consideration of getting some of specialists' ideas so that to determinecritical uncertainties and assess function of automotive industries in the final scenariosField method of interview with some of professors of university and specialists and to get their ideasabout making scenarios and determination of financial strategies in final scenarios


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4.3. Statistics Society

Concerned society in this research is to recognize structural details of scenarios and assess function of automotive industries and concerned strategies in the final scenarios, a selection of specialists in thisfield. Academic education (in relative courses: economics, management and accounting) andexperience and background of job in the connected fields like strategic management, scenario planning,specialized-holding companies, securities market, automotive industry and are the selective criteria

of specialists.4.4. Method of Experience and Analysis of Data

Principle method having been used in this research is scenario planning that has been previouslyreferred it. Method of experience and analysis of data of fuzzy Delphi has been used in different stepsof scenario planning process that in addition to consciousness about method of research is able togather specialists' ideas as the principle power of this method. Excel and SPSS are two differentsoftware that used in order to analyze data of research.

4.4.1. Method of Delphi Fuzzy

Method of Delphi has been extensively accepted as an instrument of anticipation in an extent spectrumof works. Among these works, we can refer to anticipation of technical process, anticipation of futureairy-business transportation, definition of aims, characteristics and factors, strategic planning,collecting knowledge, planning urban systems, planning projects in a huge measurement, improvementof new products, designing systems and .

Benefits of this research involve floating skills of specialists, unrecognition of specialists for prevention from overcoming one group and accompaniment repetition with structured feedbacks sothat to achieve consensus. Fulfilled method in the method of fuzzy Delphi has been evaluated by someof researchers.

Although methods of traditional Delphi have provided more value, but we cannot ignore their ambiguity and present uncertainties in them as other fulfilled techniques in this field. Probableemergence of this matter not only is possible in self-research but it is possible in the results. Hence,theory of fuzzy collection can be suitable instrument for confronting with these matters.

Ishkara and cooperators have introduced function of fuzzy theory in the method of Delphi andadvanced maximum- minimum algorithm and unification of fuzzy for anticipation of advancingcomputers in the future. Soo and Yong used triangular fuzzy number for involving specialists' ideasand making method of fuzzy Delphi. Therefore, they concerned maximum-minimum measures of specialists' ideas as the borderline points of triangular fuzzy numbers and used geometrical average asthe membership grade of triangular fuzzy numbers for the provenance of statistic non-diagonal effectand deletion of effect of borderline of measures.

Principle benefit of this method is its simplicity along with its completeness. Principlesimilarity of these two methods is the collection of specialist's decisions.

Briefly, principle benefit of fuzzy Delphi method is the collection of collaborative decisions;while time and expenditures of fulfilling the process is reduced too.

In this research, fuzzy Delphi method has being provided by Soo and Yong is used for thecollection of specialists' ideas. Whereas it was referred, specialists' ideas were collected by questioners.Triangular fuzzy numbers have been organized through relation (1) and fuzzy Delphi method has beenorganized through three relations (2), (3) and (4) that these relations are:

Any component of these relations has been separately explained:)( A A A A U , M , LT = (1)

)( Ai A X min L = (2)n...,i X M Ai

n ni A 1,2,3,II 1 == = (3)


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)( Ai A X maxU = (4): Shows evaluative rate of i m for A

: Shows the lowest rate among specialists' assessments for A

: Shows geometrical average of specialists' assessment for A

: Shows the highest rate among specialists' assessments for A

Accounts knowledgeAfter collection of specialists' ideas, importance and definiteness grade of any factor is

determined with a triangular fuzzy number by the fuzzy Delphi method. It is necessary to convertdefinite numbers in order to write factors on matrix of importance/their definiteness and comparison.Average method is regarded as the most important and usual method for making fuzzy.

This method has been presented by Lee and Lee and it is on the basis of average and error of criterion. It is accounting method of average number and error of criterion. Average number and error of criterion of triangular fuzzy number, M= (a, b, c), have been shown in the relations of 5 and 6.

Standard deviation of triangular fuzzy number M:

)c ba(

3

1X(M) ++

=

(5)Standard deviation of triangular fuzzy number M

ca) bcab-c b(a181

(M) 222 ++

=

(6)In comparison of two fuzzy numbers, anyone having higher average would be the higher

number. If averages are equivalent, anyone having lower error of criterion would be higher.

4.5. Resource of Information

Resource of information indicates a collection of prominent and knowledgeable individuals with acomplete wisdom and insight that not only they are specialized in the field of financial strategy but also

have complete control on automotive industry. Individuals that are attended the propounded issue andinterested to cooperation during the process.In order to achieve this aim, a list of qualified specialists' names was firstly provided. These

individuals had relative diploma (at least Master of Science in the fields of industrial engineering,financial management, industrial management and ) and background job (at least 4 years) in theaforesaid fields.

It is necessary to explain that during introduction of the research, other specialists wereintroduced by the selective group. Finally, agreement of 30 individuals involved managers, differentassistants, universal professors and expert advisors of Iran Khodro, Saipa and Bahman specialized-holding companies were attracted. In addition, 43% of specialists on top of having backgroundadministrative job had background teaching in valid universities.

5. ResultsResults of this research are propounded in three separate parts. In any part, ways of achievement toresults along with final results are explained. At the first part, the key uncertainties are determined bygathering and analyzing results of information coming from questioners. At the second part, differentscenarios are made by the determined key uncertainties, and key uncertainties of final scenarios aredistinguished by the logical median relations. At the final part, quadruple final strategy of finance isrecognized by the common points of determined financial strategies under any scenario andunification.


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5.1. Results of Scenario Writing

At the first section, a questionnaire has been formulated in the form of PESTEL in 6 groups of politics,economics, technology, environment and law involving 51 factors. In order to have similar interpretation of experts, a short and complete explanation was fulfilled for any factor in thequestionnaire. Questionnaire {recognition of critical uncertainties} constituted two principle parts thatare: determining degree of importance and determining degree of factors' certainty. One part is

allocated for determining superior factors.In the section of determining degree of importance and certainty of experts in the measurementof correct numbers 1-10, degree of importance and certainty of any factor has been distinguished. Inthe section of importance, score of 1 is allocated to the lowest degree of importance and score of 10 isallocated for the highest degree of importance; and the section of certainty score of 1 is allocated to thelowest degree of certainty and score of 10 is allocated for the highest degree of certainty too.

Validity of questionnaire was investigated by the logical method (apparently and contently).Whereas this questionnaire involves two principle parts, in the final assessment of questionnaire,coefficient of Cronbach's alpha should be separately determined for every part. Measures of Cronbach'salpha coefficient of two parts of important degree and certainty degree of questionnaire have beenregularly accounted 0/885 and 0/805 by the software of SPSS. Regarding acceptable software of thiscoefficient is 0/7 and higher, both accounted measures are in the authorized realm.

In the third part of questionnaire, a question was propounded as this content: if you can knowthe future of 5 factors being financial and investment decisions basis in the field of automotiveindustry, what are these factors? Experts marked answers of this question in the relative part and theseanswers were separately accounted and confirmed the issued results in two parts of determining rate of importance and certainty. These results have been shown in table 1.

Output of information resulted from usage of fuzzy Delphi method is accounted by the relationsof 2, 3 and 4 in the questionnaire as the fuzzy numbers. Then results are turned to the results of non-fuzzy numbers by the relations of 5 and 6. Five factors having the highest importance and lowestcertainty are called critical uncertainties. Results issued from questionnaire have been shown in table 1and 2.

Table 1: Determination of non-fuzzy results coming from experts' ideas

G r o u p

N u m

b e r Effective Key Factors On

Determining Of FinancialStrategy

Certainty Importance

C r i

t i c a

l

U n c e r t a i n

t i e s

StandardDeviation Average


( 1 / 6 ) P o l

i t i c a l

1 Consistency In GovernmentsPolicy 3.663057 3.876037 3.018456 7.192419 *

2 Political Relation With RegionalCountries 3.009744 4.860284 3.52284 6.268771

3 Iran Nuclear Problem 3.088639 3.575857 3.004901 7.099043 *4 Governments Supports 3.554838 4.140893 3.500003 6.4974045 Governments Budget 3.534473 5.215689 3.052681 5.6739826 Monetary Policy 3.65606 3.88987 3.012384 7.157539 *7 Financial Policy 3.077238 3.604443 3 7.000408 *

8 VAT Polic y(Value Added TaxPolicy) 3.051461 4.677814 3.509438 5.3515

9Governments Budget In TheField Of Research AndDevelopment

3.504808 4.394051 3.516175 5.305502

10 Customs Entry Rate Of ForeignCars (Automobiles) 3.625672 5.95365 3.005132 6.898647


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Table 1: Determination of non-fuzzy results coming from experts' ideas - continued

( 2 / 6 ) F i n a n c i a l

l y

11 Rate Of GDP (Gross DomesticProduct) 3.056086 4.663517 3.000163 4.981926

12 Bank Interest Rate 3.624626 4.955968 3.535339 6.2121213 Savings Rate 3.039766 4.717054 3.518765 5.29047314 Exchange Rate 3.678103 5.847201 3.506818 6.3738115 Inflation Rate 3.051829 3.676652 3.500068 6.48739716 Direct Costs 3.070963 3.621048 3.001127 5.95252817 Overhead Costs 2.61762 4.052066 3.503719 5.40682618 Per Capita Income 3.145182 4.454666 3.50436 5.39911119 Income Distribution 2.599124 4.089534 3.015451 5.82398220 Oil Income 3.11092 3.524666 3.002894 7.076097 *

( 3 / 6 ) S o c

i a l

21 Unemployment Rate 3.011879 4.845711 3.568865 5.09717922 Education Level 3.034182 4.737792 3.01032 3.85621

23 Public View Over Work AndActivities 3.111161 5.524143 3.561103 5.120766

24 Investment Culture 2.514878 4.342295 3.515301 5.31084125 Public Transportation Culture 3.013563 4.835116 3.528125 6.2433126 Population Age Composition 3.001424 4.946633 3.000013 3.994922

27 Population Sex Composition 2.501621 4.448017 2.595945 4.09629728 Potential Demand For Automotive Market 3.508613 4.358148 3.060911 6.649204

Table 2: Determination of Non-Fuzzy Results Coming From Experts' Ideas

G r o u p

N u m

b e r Effective Key Factors On

Determining Of FinancialStrategy

Certainty Importance

C r i

t i c a

l

U n c e r t a i n

t i e s



T e c

h n o l o g

i c a l

( 6 / 4 )

29 Product Life-Cycle 3.102252 4.543941 2.535633 6.25543730 Level Of Intellectual Property 2.523432 4.301917 3.52371 5.26439231 Technology Life-Cycle 3.569414 4.095559 2.523603 6.301194

32 Technology Transfer AndAbsorption Rate 3.545942 5.171517 3.002929 5.076556

33 Global Technology Availability 3.557568 5.131991 3.002431 5.930265

34 Quality Of ManufacturedVehicles 3.60544 5.000267 3.095963 6.558416

35 Automotive IndustryDevelopment/ New Plans 3.54674 4.168657 3.041856 6.709662

36 Hybrid Cars 3.500581 5.463171 3.500349 5.528526

E n v i r o n m e n

t a l ( 6 5 / )

37 Global Economic Crisis 3.519538 4.286189 2.008456 5.106296

38 Facilitate Global Trade Rules 3.526755 4.249668 3.057625 6.658888

39 Domestic Automotive MarketRivals 3.566922 5.102955 3.518931 6.289546

40 Automotive Market To ForeignCompetitors 3.595247 5.025377 3.064447 6.639058

41 Urban Transport Costs 3.562105 5.117641 3.040073 6.715957

42 Intercity Transportation Costs 3.010265 4.856598 3.009354 5.863114

43 Cost Carriers Energy / Fuel 3.605797 4.999411 2.505327 6.405721

44 Public Transport Capacity 3.53503 5.21339 3.027645 5.76432


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Table 2: Determination of Non-Fuzzy Results Coming From Experts' Ideas - continued

L e g a

l ( 6 / 6 )

45 Environmental Protection Rules 3.578016 5.07097 3.51509 5.312154

46 Product Safety 3.558932 5.12762 3.011637 5.847297

47 Private Property Rules 3.649574 4.902955 3.571791 6.088624

48 Labor Laws 3.508101 4.362432 3.582099 5.05976

49Insurance And Social SecurityLaws 3.502631 4.421634 3.551243 5.152951

50 Consumer Protection Laws 3.590415 5.03773 3.588772 5.042003

51 Laws Related To EconomicLiberalization 3.503831 4.405424 3.511321 5.662661

In the page of Dekarti, vertical axis will be allocated to the degree of certainty and horizontalaxis will be allocated to the degree of importance. By fulfillment of this step, factors of ranks: 1(stability of governmental politics), 3 (continuance of Iran nuclear matter), 6 (monetary politics), 7(financial politics) and 20 (petroleum incomes, petroleum price) are set in the critical region; thesefactors are in the regions involving more than 5 degree of importance and lower than degree of certainty; whereas we divided every axis in two parts higher or lower than 5, this region can be namedas {assumed fourth quarter}

Figure 1: Localization of present uncertainties in questionnaire

As it was previously referred, questionnaire of critical uncertainties has been constituted in acollection of three separate parts. In addition to two parts of privileging to the degree of importanceand degree of certainty, third part is related to a question based on determination of superior factorstowards investment decisions. Experts in this part distinguished 5 superior factors so that they regulatetheir financial and investment decisions in automotive industry on the basis of them.

After gathering experts' ideas and accounting votes, any one of the results factors was collected.Results of this part show that factor of petroleum incomes (petroleum price) with 14 votes, continuanceof Iran nuclear matter with 14 votes, monetary politics with 11 votes and three cases of stability of


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governmental politics, financial politics and rate of foreign exchange with 9 votes were selected as thesuperior factors.

Figure 2: Munches of gathering experts' votes respecting superior factors

Therefore, uncertainties issued from final collection of information from experts regardingdetermination of financial and investment strategies of specialized- holding companies of Iran Khodroare:

Factor of stability of governmental politics Factor of Iran nuclear matter Factor of monetary politics Factor of financial politics Factor of petroleum incomes (petroleum price)

In this part, probable manners are determined for any structural components of scenarios;determination of structural components should be constituted in a way that any manner causesimportant alternations in the imaginative future; meaning that any structural component not onlyinvolve changing every manner to any other manner but also bring about leading into situation of making new space. It is appeared to determine rates of alternations and considered returns of anystructural component.

It is Absolute that discussed manners are dependent to the nature of components. For examplesome of key variables involve anticipated manners like monetary politics (or financial) including twocontractive and expansive manners; while alternations of other factors like petroleum incomes(petroleum price) should be considered as a return and this return should be regarded in a realm in


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which exit from it is accounted as a factor of principle alternations in different areas (internationalrelations, monetary politics). In the following table, any of recognized uncertainties has beenmentioned with different manners.

Table 3: Probable manners for any structural component of scenarios (critical uncertainties)

MannersStability Of GovernmentalPolitics

Continuance Of IranNuclear Matter

Monetary &

FinancialPolitics

Petroleum

Incomes,Petroleum Price

1 Continuous Alternations InGovernmental Politics

Intensification In Sanctions,Increase In InternationalPressures And Probability Of Army Attack

Contractive RemarkableReduction

2 Stability Of Short TimePolitics Of Government

Continuation Of PresentSituation And Pursuance Of Iran Nuclear Discussions

Expensive Normal

3 Stability Of Long TimePolitics Of GovernmentAbolition Of Sanctions AndSolving Iran Nuclear Matter Extensive

RemarkableIncrease

5.2. Results of Expanding Scenarios

With determination of critical uncertainties, step of probable scenario is come. By its fulfillment,uncertainties being determined by experts are appeared in the form of different scenarios.

In order to make primary scenarios, following determination of different manners of any principle component on the basis of their nature, they are made on the basis of combining differentmanners of any principle component (critical uncertainties) of the raw scenarios. Then, scenarios thattheir internal factors opposite with each other or there is not probability for their occurrence aredeleted. Afterwards, any one of the remained scenarios is separately investigated and is sieved withconsideration of their situation, used components in them and logical relations among them. After thisstep, scenarios that were remained will be final scenarios.

Now, with regard to performed analysis, 5 final scenarios with the names that experts selectedin this realm are set in table 4.

Final scenarios: storm, turbulence, pressure of waves (tide), expectation, restfulness.

Table 4: Final Scenarios

Number Stability Of GovernmentalPoliticsContinuance Of IranNuclear Matter

Monetary &FinancialPolitics

PetroleumIncomes,PetroleumPrice

Title


Intensification In Sanctions,Increase In InternationalPressures And ProbabilityOf Army Attack

Contractive RemarkableReduction Storm


Intensification In Sanctions,Increase In InternationalPressures And ProbabilityOf Army Attack

Extensive Normal Turbulence



Expensive Normal Waves'Pressure

4 Stability Of Short TimePolitics Of Government


Expensive Normal Expectation

5 Stability Of Long TimePolitics Of GovernmentAbolition Of Sanctions AndSolving Iran Nuclear Matter Expensive

RemarkableIncrease Relaxation


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Before explanation of final scenarios, it is important to say that final scenarios surely cover major, important and effective part of imaginative future. Meaning they don't cover all probablemanners in the future. This issue is very important to select final scenarios; whereas attempt to cover all probable manners of the future contradict probability of removing scenarios.

Storm scenariosIn this scenario, situation turns to the worst probable conditions. Intensification of sanctions

and increase of international pressures from one side and empowering probability of army attack fromthe other side, lead the present space towards the occurrence of crisis in the international level. So suchspace will necessitate resourcefulness and usage of fundamental politics by the government and

provision of this resourcefulness needs fulfillment of new politics.Alternation of politics will surely lead into space towards fundamental thrift and strong

contractive politics. Global stressful space and alternation of political deals in the regional andinternational levels will face petroleum price being as the most important pressure lever in the globallevel with the remarkable fluctuations to be totally reduced.

Turbulence scenariosIn this scenario like storm scenario, Intensification of sanctions and increase of international

pressures from one side and empowering probability of army attack from the other side will beoccurred, but against storm scenario, space of global deals rejects from occurring critical situation dueto inability of fronting with global crises.

In this situation, necessary resourcefulness is performed and continuous alternations in the levelof politics are fulfilled in order to reduce results and outcomes of present situations and possess better management of situations. Expensive and contractive politics are attended as the suitable strategy.Petroleum price will face with observable and sectional fluctuations. But these fluctuations not only arenot observable but also will not have necessary space for the stable alternations and petroleum incomeswill not change a lot.

Scenarios of waves' pressureIn this scenario, situation will be lead on the basis of continuity of Iran and west nuclear

discussion and attempt to insure by both sides and so space will tend to bilateral politics. Continuity of problems and continuous facilitation will cause tactful activities by the government and pursuance of stable and non-alternative politics, however in short time, are implicated.

In such space, pressures whether sectional or stable are come and sometimes neutralizing pressure and their effects bring about loss and damages. In these situations, monetary and financial politics are usual, expensive and tactful. Petroleum price is determined on the basis of regional andinternational relations and remarkable alternations in petroleum price and petroleum incomes will beunexpected.

Scenario of expectationIn this scenario, situation will be continued on the basis of present situation. Although, by

continuity of nuclear discussions and unavailability to political agreement, comparative stability has been accrued in the country; and created knowledge made the space to lead into pursuance of shorttime politics.

In this situation, just alternations as abolition or approval of new resolution and issues in thislevel cause to change the situations involving observable approaches and are often stable (whereas it isclear from the name of this scenario, aforesaid alternations are anticipatable and perusable like tide). Inthis situation, expensive politics are applicable with necessary techniques. Petroleum price and

petroleum incomes as the previous scenario will have not remarkable alternations. Scenario of relaxationIn this scenario, necessary space for complete performance of stable and long time politics was

created by west's acceptance for the reality of Iran's peaceful nuclear. Exit of Iran nuclear matter andabolition of sanctions lead into orientations towards releasing unconditional economics. Deletion of limitations prepared industrial space to move forcefully and without previous considerations.


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Performance of expensive politics is propounded as the best alternative for the pursuance of monetary and financial politics. Petroleum price in such situation will face with rising, so petroleum

price will be increased too.Here, with determination of final scenarios and explaining them, scenario writing is concluded.

It is necessary to mention that realizing process of scenarios and understanding all aspects and their details are accounted as the most important factor in selecting final scenarios and step of determiningstrategies.

5.3. Results of Combining Scenarios

Based on provided analyses regarding determination of financial strategies, every one of finalstrategies is determined by considering importance of different manners. Common points of determined strategies like common strategic priorities are the most important factor in achievement tofinal strategies.

5.3.1. Investment StrategiesStrategy of advancing capacity of production is determined as the common points of all scenariosamong investment strategies; then strategy of strategic investments is propounded.

5.3.2. Strategy of Financial ProvisionStrategy of share publication and loan receipt are propounded as the most important strategies of financial provision among all scenarios.

5.3.3. Strategies of Working CapitalWhereas conservatively strategies are just attend in the scenario of storm among all strategies of working capital and normal strategies possess high importance in all situations even in the scenario of storm, so normal strategies are determined as the common strategies of working capital.

5.3.4. Strategies of Dividing BenefitStrategy of {politics of dividing benefit with stability} is propounded as the common points of allscenarios among strategies of dividing benefit. This strategy provides necessary assurance for the

permanent provision of financial resources.

6. Summary and ConclusionThis research is fulfilled by the method of scenario planning in three principle steps, these three stepsare: scenario writing, advancement of scenarios and combination of scenarios. In the step of scenariowriting, after extracting information issued from questionnaire of PESTEL, degrees of importance andcertainty for every factor were determined and 5 factors involving the highest importance and lowestcertainty accompanied with each other were distinguished as the critical uncertainties. Then, differentmanners of every ones were recognized on the basis of performing principal alternations. Afterwards,critical uncertainties of raw scenarios were created by combining different manners.

In the step of advancing scenarios by examining scenarios, logical relations among every one of uncertainties were determined; also the scenarios that their internal factors opposite with each other or those that there is not probability for their occurrence were deleted. Subsequently, every one of remained scenarios was separately investigated and screened concerning situations of every one, usedcomponents and logical relations among them. Five remained scenarios will be the final scenarios.

In the step of combining scenarios, importance of using every manners of quarter financialstrategies were determined on the basis of view point of strategic reference under every scenarios andfinal financial strategy was appeared in every scenarios and their unification. In the following of determined final strategies have been presented in the form of table 5.


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Table 5: Final Financial Strategies

Manner Financial Strategies Number1 Investment Strategies Advancement Of Productive Capacity/ Strategic Investments2 Strategy Of Financial Provision Share Publication3 Strategies Of Working Capital Normal4 Strategies Of Dividing Benefit Politics Of Dividing Benefit With Stability

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Documents

Set the Investment & Financial Strategy in Iranian Automotive Industry Holding Company