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• Hello!
• What is a trend?
• Some structural drivers of change
• Trends to watch
• Trends in reality
Hello
• Head of Insight & Brand Development
• Bring consumer to heart of the business
• ShiB from research to insight
• Businesses tend to focus on the issues but forget the context
• Every issue is bedded in people
• Research focus which helps build a strategic view of certain markets
What is a trend?
• “a general direcHon in which something is developing or changing”
• Never standalone • Influenced by numerous factors
such as demographics, economic indicators and innovaHon
Affluence • As wealth expands consumers grow
more confidents and begin moving beyond basic needs towards self esteem and self actualisaHon
• Real value of family wealth in the UK doubled between 1987 and 2009, despite 4 recessions since 1980
• Less about actual income and more about how confident we feel about our future
Source:ONS
Consumer Confidence
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Feb-88
Feb-90
Feb-92
Feb-94
Feb-96
Feb-98
Feb-00
Feb-02
Feb-04
Feb-06
Feb-08
Feb-10
Feb-12
Feb-14
Feb-16
Source:EuropeanCommission,2016
• Based on 5 key measures around household financial situaHon, expectaHons, general economic expectaHons and a]tude to major purchases
Affluence • As wealth expands consumers grow more
confidents and begin moving beyond basic needs towards self esteem and self actualisaHon
• Real family wealth in the UK doubled between 1987 and 2009, despite 4 recessions since 1980
• Less about actual income and more about how confident we feel about our future
• Confidence is on the rise
Source:ONS
Globalisation • Increased trade agreements, populaHon movements, the growth of travel,
networked news and technology are all driving increased globalisaHon
• Last naHonal census:
7.5 million born outside the UK
• In London today
26% English not first language
37% born outside the UK
• Overseas visits have grown from 3million in the 1960’s to 56 million today
Source:ONS
Globalisation • Increased globalisaHon can also drive us
more local
• Local newspaper have held up well despite the virtual collapse of the wider newspaper industry – local news brands reach 40 million consumers per year
• SNP success at the General ElecHon put down to strong local mobilisaHon
• And a small town murder ….
Source:localmedia.org
Ageing Populations • All major EU economies will see the 50+
populaHon rise
Source:ONS,ScoEshGov,GeneralRegisterOffice
Ageing Populations • All major EU economies will see the
50+ populaHon rise
• From 2012 to 2027 the UK populaHon age 75+ will double to reach 7.7million
• Between 2006 and 2012 life expectancy in England & wales increased to:
79.1 for men
82.9 for women
• Male life expectancy in Scotland increased from:
69.1 in 1981 to 76.1 by 2010 Source:ONS,ScoEshGov,GeneralRegisterOffice
Ageing Populations • Ageing populaHons and longer life
expectancy resulHng in mulH-generaHonal families
• Driving agelessness
• Nearly 50% of children say they spend a lot of Hme with their grandparents
• Grandparents carry increasing influence parHcularly with their improved financial security
Great Grandparents
Grandparents
Parents/ Aunts/Uncles
Siblings/ Cousins
Tradi&onalHorizontalFamily
ModernVer&calFamily
Source:nVisionKidsResearch
Digital Revolutions • According to UN Global Pulse, more data
was created in 2011 than in the whole of human history
• Digital adopHon is acceleraHng
Digital Revolutions • According to UN Global Pulse, more
data was created in 2011 than in the whole of human history
• Digital adopHon is acceleraHng
Smartphoneownership
2012 2015
40%
62%
Tabletownership
2012 2015
14%
51%
Source:nVision,GilmourGraham
• Recently ran a study that found 74% of kids aged 5 – 12 had tablet access
Digital Revolutions • According to UN Global Pulse, more
data was created in 2011 than in the whole of human history
• Digital adopHon is acceleraHng
• Recently ran a study that found 74% of kids aged 5 – 12 had tablet access
• More than 80% of us have bought goods and services online
• Boomers highest users • Gen Y most likely to use mobile
Source:TargetGroupIndex
Digital Revolutions GeneraHon Z businesses
Founded 2005, more than a billion users
Founded 2004, 1.65 billion users, 4.5 billion daily likes
Founded 2006, 1 billion unique visits per month, 310 m monthly acHve users
Founded 2003 414m users
Digital Revolutions • Big data, Google Glass, Amazon’s
driverless cars
• Now TV could be watching you
• MulHple patents pending …..
Digital Revolutions
“ theset-topdevicewillbeabletodis1nguish“ambientac1on…ofea1ng,exercising,laughing,reading,sleeping,talking,humming,cleaning,cuddling,figh1ng,par1cipa1nginagameorspor1ngevent,andtalking”andmore.Thatinforma1onwouldthenbeusedtodelivertargetedadstoyourlivingroom
”
Digital Revolutions • Big data, Google Glass, Amazon’s
driverless cars
• Now TV could be watching you
• MulHple patents pending …..
• Driving a shiB in societal networks –
• 22% of couples in the South East met online*
• Expected to rise to 50% within 20 years
Source:eHarmony
Reward me… the evidence • The power of social media:
70 % of Gen Y use social media daily
55% of Gen X
40% of Boomers
Source:nVision
Reward me… the evidence • The power of social media:
70 % of Gen Y use social media daily
55% of Gen X
40% of Boomers
• Those on social networks use 2.1 networks on average
• 75% of kids age 12 – 15 like it when their posts or photos are acknowledged
Source:nVision
Reward me… the evidence • CompeHHve facebooking is the act of
checking in or posHng on facebook to one up your friends, relaHves, or others that have it beter than you:
“We checked in at a really nice place, and shortly a4er he checked in at the old haunt. I think he is compe99ve facebooking”
• Daniel Gula9, Harvard Business Review, 2011:
“Facebook is crea9ng a den of comparison”
Source:HarvardBusinessReview
Reward me… the evidence • CompeHHve TV
• Top 20 most watched TV episodes consisted enHrely of 3 shows:
• Great BriHsh Bake Off - peak 15.05m
• Britain’s Got Talent – peak 12.75m • Strictly Come Dancing – peak 11.93m
Source:ThePressAssociaXon
Reward me… the evidence • GamificaHon being used across
mulHple industries
• Linked with social media it drives recogniHon and achievement
• Research example – Media Predict
• Combines be]ng, with futures markets and wisdom of the crowds
• 85% success rate of predicHng box office numbers
Source:MediaPredict
It’s all about me… the evidence • The rise of the managed persona
• Google searches for “selfie”, “unfollow” and “unfriend” on the increase
• 72% of heavy users of Instagram have de-tagged photos of themselves
Source:nVision
It’s all about me… the evidence • “It’s important for me to be able to express
my creaHvity”
• For those who feel strongly the main reasons are:
• To saHsfy my need for new experiences • To be just that bit different from others in the
way I express myself • To stand out from the crowd
• But not too much…..
Source:nVision
It’s all about me… the evidence • Marketers already idenHfying a push
back on tribe referencing from Millennials
• Recent fashion research indicates that Gen Z want to operate within the boundaries of “fi]ng in” whilst creaHng their own unique look
Source:PragmaConsulXng
It’s all about me… the evidence • Marketers already idenHfying a push
back on tribe referencing from Millennials
• Recent fashion research indicates that Gen Z want to operate within the boundaries of “fi]ng in” whilst creaHng their own unique look
• Big brands catering to mass customisaHon
Source:PragmaConsulXng
It’s all about me… the evidence • Rise of wish lisHng feeding
customisaHon and reflecHon of self to the outside world
• Pinterest hit 100m acHve monthly users in 2015
• Announced its intenHon to make pins shoppable
• Wishlists already feature on most major retail sites
• Bespoke wishlisHng businesses
Source:Fortune.com/Pinterest
It’s all about me… the evidence • We are already building personal
media lists from web sites, feeds, likes on FB and VOD viewing
• AdverHsing is the most targeted that it has ever been – as a result those who claim “adverHsing does not reflect my life” are in decline*
• Nearly half of all social networkers have “liked” brands
Source:nVisionresearch
It’s all about me… the evidence • A third of consumers watch on
demand TV weekly
• More kids are watching TV on a tablet than on a TV set
• Kids age 5 -12 are now more likely to watch catch up/VOD than live scheduling
• “if they target me properly through Facebook and Twiter then yep, I’ll buy – I got caught for a pair of trainers last week” (GG Research fashion forward men age 25 – 55)
Source:Childwise,nVision,GilmourGraham
It’s all about me… the evidence • Lifelong learning taking on new
meaning
• Online searches for “learning new skills” on the rise
• nVision esHmate that 13% of the populaHon are “leisure learners”
• 23% Boomers
• 35% Gen X
• 42% Gen Y
Source:GoogleTrends,nVision
It’s all about me… the evidence • Self employment is trending upwards
• Less than 3 million in 1980 • 4.5 million in 2015
• Being driven by the over 50’s
• Levels of entrepreneurs aged 50+ match the under 50’s for the first Hme
• Driven by wanHng to make a posiHve change and take their desHny in their own hands
Source:OxfordEconomicsForecast,UKGlobalEntrepreneurshipMonitor2013,PRIME
An Ageless Society… the evidence • GeneraHons and life stages are colliding
• Over half of first Hme mothers were over 30 in 2014 • Marrying later (age 30 now vs age 23 in 1966) • Ge]ng a mortgage/leaving home
• PosiHve role models: Michael Caine, Mary Berry, Tom Jones, Alan Sugar, Margaret Moun|ord
• A third of over 75’s have taken on work post-reHrement, expressed intent of staying fit and agile
• 75% of adults believe that no one should be forced to reHre
• An increasing number of life changing events post age 50 • Marriage, divorce, re-marriage • Career changes • Recurring “once in a lifeHme” holidays
Source:nVision,NaXonalStaXsXcs,Dept.forCommuniXes&LocalGov
Experience Society… the evidence • As wealth increases we seek fulfilling
“experiences”
• The recession drove a renewed emphasis on “family Hme” and building memories
• 40% of Britons love any excuse to celebrate
• Travel abroad, holidays and short breaks and eaHng out have all boomed in the last decade
• New landmark events are created
Source:nVision
Applying trends
Staff select their own rewards
+ +
Funding volunteering
+
Seed funding for employees who are would be entrepreneurs
Further reading • Future FoundaHon Newsleter
• Trendhunter.com
• Fortune.com
• Dailymail.com
• MarkeHng Week newsleter