Safe Cities

Session 1World Bank Institute

Fouad Bendimerad, Ph.D., P.E

Disaster risk and its management

In the context of local government

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Safe Cities

Who is impacted by disasters

Everyone

The poor will see the chances they may have had to come out of poverty become even dimmer. “Disasters seek out the poor and make sure they remain poor”

Children, the old and the less-privileged elements of society suffer long-term losses

A portion of the “middle class” instantly becomes poor because it loses its means for well-being

Small businesses and family enterprises often sustain catastrophic losses

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Cost of disasters

In the decade from 1990 to 1999, close to 2 billion people have been affected by disasters worldwide with a median loss of about $50 billion.

An average of 100,000 people lose their lives every year from disasters.

Average cost has increased six-fold in the last 30 years and could reach $300 billion per year by 2030.

Trend in Economic Loss from Disasters ($billion)

0

10

20

30

40

50

1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999

Source: Munich Re, 2001

Source: OFDA/Cred International Disaster Database, 2002

0

1

2

3

1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999

2,000

1,000

Affected Population (Million) Dead (Million)

Disaster Impact

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Cost of disasters in the developingworld

Disasters disproportionably impact developing and least developed countries compared to developed countries 97% of the deaths 10-times the loss (as measured by GDP)

Recovery is immeasurably longer Badly needed infrastructure is demolished Development is pushed back (Resources are diverted

from basic services and from development projects towards reconstruction)

The poor are most impacted and human suffering becomesmore pervasive

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Safe Cities

Unsustainable development unsustainable risk

Disasters are not natural phenomena; they are the direct results of development

Unsustainable development has increased exposure to natural hazards due to: Increased of concentration of population in hazardous areas Increased vulnerability of the built environment due to shoddy and

illicit construction Increased fragility of socio-economic systems due to inappropriate

development practices and environmental mismanagement Unprepared populations and institutions Social destitution and social injustice

Together these correlated factors create a trend of increasing societal susceptibility and diminishing resilience.

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In 1950, 18% of the developing world lived in cities; by 2030, this percentage will increase to 60%

In 2002, the developing world had 15 cities with population greater than 8 million people

In 2010, 8 out of 10 largest cities will be in the developing world, including Mexico City, Dhaka, Mumbai, Lagos

Many of these cities are located in earthquake-prone areas, tropical cyclone tracks and flood-prone areas

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Stunning urban demographics

World’s 50 Largest Cities

Threatened Worldwide

Threatened in Developing Countries

Earthquake Threatened Population

Million500

400

300

200

100

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Earthquake risk to megacities

About 70 of the largest cities in the world can expect a strong earthquake on average once every 50 years

Cities like Istanbul, Dhaka, Manila, Cairo, Mexico City, Kathmandu, Bogotá, Algiers and many others are threatened by earthquakes

An earthquake in these cities would cause a catastropheof unparalleled proportions

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Earthquakes constitute the most disastrous hazard and the largest challenge for preparation and mitigation

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Recent major urban earthquakes

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Developed countries have been able to control life loss from earthquakes by improving construction and land-use practices and raising awareness.

Earthquake People killed Financial damage

Tangshan, China – 1975

250,000

Kobe, Japan –1995 6,000 $120 billion

Izmit, Turkey, 1999 19,000 $10 billion

Gujarat, India, 2001 18,000 $3billion

Boumerdes, Algeria 2,300 $5 billion

Bam, Iran 45,000 ??

Northridge, USA, 1994

57 dead $46billion

Safe Cities

Losses from disasters

Direct material losses: Property, crops, infrastructure,lifelines, livestock, and critical facilities

Human Losses: Death, injury, population displacement, long term trauma.

Environmental Losses: Deforestation, hazardous material release.

Weakening of institutions and disturbance of social structures.

Reduction of economic and human potential of society: Exacerbated poverty, impaired small business and industry, disabled lifelines and infrastructure.

Diversion of funds from development and from socialservices.

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Impediments to disaster risk reduction (DRR)

Factor No. 1: Lack of mechanisms to mainstream disaster risk reduction within institutional functions and missions:

DRR takes place when it is inherently embedded in the day-to-day

functions and mission of every single institution of the local government;

Through targeted policies, organizational changes and awareness raising, local governments can progressively mainstream DRR in day-to-day practice of its institutions.

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Impediments to disaster risk reduction (cont.) Factor No. 2: Rigid bureaucratic structures that are not

suited for cross-organizational cooperation and integration:

DRR involves integration of knowledge from several disciplines: Urban

planning, building and construction, earth science, environmental

science, sociology, finance, law, etc.; DRR involves exchange of information and practices across institutions

and across sectors of the local government; Further, DRR require acquisition of new and specialized expertise; Hence, the implementation of DRR requires flexibility in structures and

mechanisms for sharing knowledge and information.

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Safe Cities

Impediments to disaster risk reduction (cont.) Factor No. 3: Lack of capacity and inefficient use of

resources:

Local governments usually lack capacity to understand risks and implement DRR

Existing community and social resources are often inefficiently used (e.g., universities, professional organizations, etc.)

Local governments must seek partnerships and find resources among the active agents of the community.

Factor No. 4: Lack of knowledge of disaster risk factors and options for disaster risk reduction:

Most often local governments and communities do not understand the risk parameters of their environment and the DRR options available to them.

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Impediments to disaster risk reduction (cont.) Factor No. 5: Lack of awareness on the part of

institutions and civil society, which relegates disaster risk reduction among public policy priorities:

In front of competing priorities for resources, DRR often gets low attention

Lack of awareness by communities and the general public inhibits social pressure on government

Public policy requires the development of a common agenda, leadership,and advocacy.

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Disasters in the context of local government Local government is aware of community issues and its own

potential Local government knows the stakeholders and their agenda Local Government understands the cultural intricacies Local Government is in charge of providing services, and in

particular urban planning, construction permits, transportation,health care

Local Government is part of the “first responders”

The importance of decentralization of disaster risk management has yet to be fully recognized and systematically applied in developing countries.

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The importance of decentralization

When decision-making and resources are concentrated at the central level, local governments cannot effectively undertake disaster management.

Unbalance in ReUnbalance in Re

L o c a l

R e g i o n a l

C e n t r a lResources

Responsibility

Unbalanced in Resources and Responsibility between Central and Local Authorities

Unbalance in ReUnbalance in Re

L o c a l

R e g i o n a l

C e n t r a lResources

Responsibility

Unbalance in ReUnbalance in Re

L o c a l

R e g i o n a l

C e n t r a l

Unbalance in ReUnbalance in Re

L o c a l

R e g i o n a l

C e n t r a l

L o c a l

R e g i o n a l

C e n t r a lResources

Responsibility

Unbalanced in Resources and Responsibility between Central and Local Authorities

The lack of local authority on disaster management de-links land-use planning, urban settlement and construction control from risk reduction efforts, and thus further exacerbates the vulnerabilities of communities.

Decentralization is necessary in order to build local capacity

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Safe Cities

In sum…

A national issue for each country.

The responsibility of all the active agents of a country’s society.

A concern to each community.

A central government’s problem or a local government’s problem.

An academician’s problem or a politician’s problem.

A citizen’s problem or a destiny problem.

Disaster risk management is …

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Disaster risk mitigation is not…