Services système et installations

photovoltaïques /

Systemdienstleistungen durch

Photovoltaikanlagen

Ministère de l'Écologie, du

Développement durable et de l'Énergie

2015-11-03

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Adrien ACRES

Country Manager France & Benelux

Meteocontrol France SAS

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About the company

• Over 35 years of experience in

renewable energy systems

• Market leader in professional remote

monitoring of photovoltaic systems with a

total power of over 10,5 GWp

• 39 500 monitored photovoltaic systems

• Biggest data pool for the performance of

PV systems

• Involved in projects covering a total

investment volume of 13 bn. EUR

• 140 employees worldwide

SUBSIDIARIES: DE, ES, FR, IT, US, CN

SCADA

safer’Sun Public safer’Sun Professional Virtual Control Room (VCOM)

Home Line (up to 30 kWp)

Industrial Line (not limited in size)

WEB’log Residential / Comfort

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metecontrol’s activities on the value chain

blue’Log X-Serie: X-1000, X-3000. X-6000

Power forecast within meteocontrol’s range of services

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Technical Acceptance Power Control (P & Q)

Operation Management

Construction Phase

Decon

str

uction

Operations Phase

Technical Due Diligence

Planning Phase

Construction Supervision

System Rating and risks assessment

Yield Reports & Consulting

Manufacturer Auditing

Power Forecasts

Technical consulting

Monitoring of PV systems

Yield Performance Validation

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The challenges for grid stability

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Solar Power Forecasts

Radiation

forecast

PV Power

forecast

In cooperation with MeteoGroup

and Oldenburg University

• leading private weather service provider

• operating more than 850 own weather stations

• access to more than 17.000 stations worldwide

• highly accurate MOS forecasts (model output

statistics)

Service provided by Meteocontrol

• leading expert in PV power modeling

• more than 10,5 GW of PV systems worldwide

• monitoring portal with more than 39,500 systems

Solar power forecasts on different time scales

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• Day ahead

• Short term

time scale

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Short Term Solar Power Forecasts

„cloud motion vectors“ (CMV)

CLOUD MOTION VECTORS (Oldenburg University)

• Updated every 15 minutes

• Forecast horizon 8 hours

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New approach: adaptive intra day power forecast

Cloud Motion Vector from satellite:

+ precise forecast for the next hours

- no exact information on actual PV power production

NWP = Numerical Weather Prediction

+ precise forecast for long time horizons

- limited accuracy for the next hours

Power porduction from monitoring

+ precise information of actual PV power production

- limited forecasting accuracy because of changing weather

meteocontrol’s

new approach

2015

+

+

=

+ combines the best of each method

+ Reduces the global RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) of the forecast

Comparing forecast errors for 4 different techniques

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Blue line: ‘NWP’ = ‘classical’ forecast based on numerical weather prediction

Black line: ‘Cloud Motion Vectors’ = improved intra day forecast based on satellite

Red line: ‘persistence forecast’ = based on PV power production data

Green line: ‘adaptive PV power forecast’ = meteocontrol’s new model

From: C. Kurz, Exakte Kurzfristprognosen optimieren den Netzbetrieb, ew Spezial Smart Energy III/2015.

RMSE .

RMSE (NWP)

RMSE of NWP

Forecast horizon (hours)

More reliable

meteocontrol’s

new approach

2015

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RMSE (Root Mean Square Error): Results

LOWER ERRORS BY USING YIELD MEASUREMENTS

Yield Simulation

Yield Measurements

Power Forecast

50Hertz

before: 4.7%

with mc (2014): 3.9%

Transnet BW (EnBW)

before: 4.8%

with mc (2014): 4.1%

Germany

Before: 3.5%

with mc (2014): 2.8%

…and soon even

better results

thanks to

meteocontrol’s

„new adaptative

power forecast“…

Systems with:

(PowerControl activated)

or

=

9371 systems

3,8 GWp installed power

Power Control: Adapting to real time events Active and Reactive Power Control with meteocontrol hardware .

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Overview of the feedback loop for grid stability

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meteocontrol GmbH

Spicherer Straße 48 | 86157 Augsburg | Germany

Phone +49 (0)821 34666-0 | Fax +49 (0)821 34666-11

E-mail info@meteocontrol.com | Web www.meteocontrol.com

Copyright:

© 2015, meteocontrol GmbH, Augsburg (Germany). All rights reserved.

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