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*
Incorporating Sea Level Rise into Capital Planning
Overview of Draft GuidanceCity and County of San Francisco
Coastal Hazards Adaptation Resiliency Group (CHARG) July 24,
2014
David BeharClimate Program Director, SFPUCChair, CCSF Sea Level
Rise Committee
Services of the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission
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Draft Guidance: City and County of SF*
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SLR Depictions: BCDC: 2 meters (2007)*SFO: 3 feetPort Study: 15
and 55 inches (URS, 2011)NOAA Coastal Viewer (1-6 ft, 5 ft
pictured)
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April 10, 2014 issue of The Urbanist (SPUR)*
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The Wild Wild West
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Current SLR Estimates: CCSF Depts, Projects205020802100
SFMTA 24 60SFO 16 55 SLR in inchesPUC (SSIP)11-2436-66TI/YBI 16
36 55Port (URS)10-1731-69Ocean Beach 14 55*
Chart1
24SFMTASFMTASFMTA60
16SFOSFOSFO55
1124PUC (SSIP)3666
16TI/YBI36TI/YBI55
1017Port (URS)3169
14Ocean BeachOcean BeachOcean Beach55
2050 low
2050 high
2080
2100 low
2100 high
Sheet1
SFMTA2460
SFO1655
PUC (SSIP)24-Nov36-66
TI/YBI163655
Port (URS)17-Oct31-69
Ocean Beach1455
2050 low2050 high20802100 low2100 high
SFMTA2460
SFO1655
PUC (SSIP)11243666
TI/YBI163655
Port (URS)10173169
Ocean Beach1455
SFMTASFOSFPUCTI/YBIPortOcean Beach
2050241611161014
2100605566556955
Sheet1
2050 low
2050 high
2080
2100 low
2100 high
Sheet2
SFMTA
SFO
SFPUC
TI/YBI
Port
Ocean Beach
Sheet3
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*
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*CCSF Sea Level Rise GuidanceFocus set by Mayors Office:Draft
guidance for incorporating sea level rise into capital planning for
the CCSFBring draft guidance to Capital Planning Committee for
considerationEnable CPC and departments to better understand and
prioritize projects with reference to sea level riseCoordinate and
encourage collaboration among all CCSF departmentsMaintain
responsibility for assessment and adaptation within departments,
with review and coordination by entity TBD.
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Sea Level Rise Committee*
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*A Range of Ranges: Confusion Meets CatastrophicationSea Level
Rise 210S2100 - RANGES39
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Science and Regulatory Landscape a sampling*
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CCSF Draft Guidance: Flexible; Considers Both Likely and Extreme
Scenarios; Reflects Best Available Science*
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CCSF Draft Guidance: SLR Figures*Sea Level Rise Scenarios 21st
century (inches)11 from National Research Council 2012
Chart1
2
4
6
8
12
5
7
11
15
24
17
26
36
46
66
2030
2050
2100
Sheet1
LikelyLikely plus one confidence intervalUpper Bound
2050111524
2100364666
National Research Council (2012)Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC, 2013)California Ocean Protection Council
(State Guidance, 2013)California Coastal Commission (Draft,
2013)City and County of San Francisco (draft 2014)
2100 lower bound1711171717
2100 most likely363936
2100 upper bound66666680
2030 lower bound2
2030 most likely - optimistic4
2030 most likely6
2030 most likely - conservative8
2030 upper bound12
2050 lower bound5
2050 most likely - optimistic7
2050 most likely11
2050 most likely - conservative15
2050 upper bound24
2100 lower bound17
2100 most likely - optimistic26
2100 most likely36
2100 most likely - conservative46
2100 upper bound66
Sheet1
Likely
Likely plus one confidence interval
Upper Bound
Sheet2
2100 lower bound
2100 most likely
2100 upper bound
Sheet3
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Sea Level Rise and Extreme Tide MatrixSource: SFPUC, Sewer
System Improvement Program (AECOM)
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36 SLR36 SLR + King Tide (48 total)
36 SLR + 100 year flood (77 total)
2100 Most Likely SLR + Events*Source: Sewer System Improvement
Program, Draft Inundation MapsAssumes no adaptation measures
implemented
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SLR Guidance: Steps in the Process1. SLR Science Review
2. Vulnerability Assessment
3. Risk Assessment
4. Adaptation Planning
. . . Permitting and Regulatory Considerations
*
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Elements of Draft SLR Guidance (cont)2. Vulnerability
Assessment: Which assets are vulnerable to sea level rise?A.
ExposureB. SensitivityC. Resilience
*
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Elements of Draft SLR Guidance (cont)3. Risk Assessment: Which
vulnerable assets are at greatest risk (prioritization
opportunity)?A. LikelihoodB. Consequence
*
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Elements of Draft SLR Guidance (cont)4. Adaptation Planning: For
those assets at risk, what will we do to increase their resilience
to sea level rise?Building on previous steps to create
resilienceAdaptive capacity, adaptive management
*
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Elements of Draft SLR Guidance (cont)5. Permitting and
Regulatory ConsiderationsCoastal CommissionBCDCCCSF General
Plan
*
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Adaptive CapacityTwo definitions in literature weve reviewed:1)
Inherent resilience: asset will be flooded but not be harmed, or
flooding will not be a problem. Examples: a) a park floods, but its
not harmed; b) A road floods, but another road is available for
use2) Adaptive management: asset can be made resilient to shorter
term SLR, and planning/footprint can allow future resilience
measures when more is known.
*
AIACitation: Presentation by Dilip Trivedi at AIA - San
Francisco Chapter, 10/17/13
ADAPTATION Raise Embankments
AIACitation: Presentation by Dilip Trivedi at AIA - San
Francisco Chapter, 10/17/13
ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT Raise EmbankmentsAgain!
AIACitation: Presentation by Dilip Trivedi at AIA - San
Francisco Chapter, 10/17/13
Treasure Island - Sea Level Rise Approach
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Thank you!
David BeharClimate Program DirectorSan Francisco Public
Utilities Commission525 Golden Gate Avenue, 10th FloorSan
Francisco, CA 94102415-554-3221 [email protected]*
**25 feet of SLR (approx 2300 AD)*******************
