Serious attack on Ryan budget takes toll on Mitt Romney

Serious attack on Ryan budget

takes toll on Mitt Romney

July 16, 2012

Methodology and Overview

2

This presentation is based on a survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps. The survey of 1000 likely 2012 voters (1000 weighted) nationwide was conducted from June 23-27, 2012. In addition, a unique oversample of 200 self-identified Hispanics was conducted from June 25-28, 2012 to allow for an in-depth analysis of this important electoral group. The interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish, depending on the preference of the respondent. Unless otherwise noted, margin of error= +/-3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence.

The Ryan budget – described in Ryan’s actual language – gets barely

majority support

Obama’s lead over Romney doubles (from 3 to 6 points) after Romney endorses Ryan budget and voters hear both sides

The voters respond to 3 big, nearly equal critiques of the Ryan budget:

1. It allows child tax credit to expire for many working families, pushing the families of 2 million children back into poverty

2. It privatizes Medicare, cuts health care spending for seniors and raises their health care bills

3. It cuts education spending by 20 percent, forcing states to cut more teachers

© 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

The Ryan budget

3

In presidential debate, when Obama frames narrative as damaging the

most vulnerable – produces biggest shift to Obama on the vote

Keep in mind the voters that have held back and that now move:

1. Rising American Electorate (minority, young, and unmarried women): upset with pushing the families of 2 million children back into poverty; Obama vote up from 63 to 65 percent

2. Unmarried women: top concern is pushing the families of 2 million children back into poverty; vote up from 63 to 69 percent (matching 2008)

3. Hispanics: top concern is education cuts


The Ryan budget – the most vulnerable

4

The frameworks:

1. Most effective: Obama by 9 -- general/poverty facts (even split)/vulnerable narrative

2. Very effective: Obama by 6 -- mostly budget general (one poverty fact)/vulnerable narrative

3. Very effective: Obama by 5 -- mostly budget general (one poverty fact)/general narrative

4. Least effective: Obama by 3 -- general/poverty facts (even split)/general narrative


The Ryan budget – the most vulnerable (cont.)

5


Unique experimental design and test

6

This survey utilizes a unique experimental design – with different respondents hearing different information in order to analyze the differences between groups of respondents. After an initial read on the Ryan budget in the Congressman’s own words, half of the respondents receive five facts about general budget cuts in the Ryan plan and one fact about cuts that affected particularly the most vulnerable; the other half received an even split of facts about general budget cuts and cuts affecting the most vulnerable. At the conclusion of the experiment, all respondents are asked a presidential revote question framed as a debate scenario between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney solely on the Ryan budget. Half of respondents hear the set-up to the revote as: • “In his concluding statement, Mitt Romney says that he supports the Ryan budget because it reflects his values. President

Obama says that he opposes the Ryan budget, particularly because of what it would do to the most vulnerable.” Half hear the set-up to the revote without the line about the most vulnerable: • “In his concluding statement, Mitt Romney says that he supports the Ryan budget because it reflects his values. President

Obama says that he opposes the Ryan budget.” This set-up allows us to analyze the effect of Obama framing the choice around the Ryan budget as hitting the most vulnerable.

The experiment

7

Split 1 (250 interviews): VULNERABLE/VULNERABLE

Favor/oppose Ryan plan in his own words

Hear general and vulnerable facts

Attacks by Democrats and Republicans

Obama mentions impact on most vulnerable


Hear general facts


Obama mentions impact on most vulnerable


Hear general and vulnerable facts


Obama DOES NOT mention impact on most vulnerable


Hear general facts


Obama DOES NOT mention impact on most vulnerable

Split 2 (250 interviews): GENERAL/VULNERABLE

Split 3 (250 interviews): VULNERABLE/GENERAL

Split 4 (250 interviews): GENERAL/GENERAL

Revote: Obama vs. Romney Revote: Obama vs. Romney Revote: Obama vs. Romney Revote: Obama vs. Romney

The Ryan budget – in his own words – barely gets

majority support

24

35

25

52

Oppose Support

Earlier this year, Republicans in Congress passed a budget that Mitt Romney and Republicans in the Senate support,

called the Paul Ryan budget, named after the chairman of the House Budget Committee. Let me read you some things

that Republicans who support this budget say it will do and how it will help the country. From what you know, do you

favor or oppose this budget plan?

+17

8

Our plan saves the country from a future of spending and debt by cutting an additional 5.3 trillion dollars over the next ten years, bringing federal spending down to the historic level of 20 percent as a share of the economy, and bringing deficits down by 2015. Our plan fixes the broken tax code by making it simple, fair and competitive, and eliminates special interest loopholes while lowering everyone's rates to promote growth. Our plan repeals the Obama administration's health care reform law and the Wall Street reform law, which cause uncertainty for job-creating businesses. Our plan strengthens Medicaid over the next decade by providing states greater flexibility to determine what is best for the people who live in their communities. Our plan will save Medicare for future generations by making smart reforms, giving future seniors the choice to purchase private plans or traditional Medicare.

Romney’s endorsement of the Ryan budget doesn’t

help him

32

43

25

42

Less likely More likely

Now, I'm now going to read you what Mitt Romney has said about the Ryan budget plan, which he supports. After

hearing this, are you more likely or less likely to vote for Mitt Romney in November?

+1

9

“I'm very supportive of the Ryan budget plan. It's a bold and exciting effort on his part and on the part of the Republicans. I think it's amazing that we have a president who three and a half years in still hasn't put a proposal out that deals with entitlements. This budget deals with entitlement reform, tax policy, and efforts to reign in excessive spending. I applaud it. It's an excellent piece of work and very much needed.”

37

36

35

The plan allows the child tax credit to expire formany working families, pushing the families of 2

million children back into poverty.

The budget privatizes Medicare, massively cutshealth care spending for seniors, and freezes

spending under inflation, which will force seniorsto pay 6 thousand dollars more a year for their

health care.

The plan cuts the federal education budget by 20percent, which would force states to pay more foreducation, cut their budgets significantly, or lay-off

more teachers.

Cuts to Medicare, education and letting the child tax

credit expire are the most concerning to voters

10

Now I am going to read you some things some people say will happen with this budget plan supported by the

Republicans in Congress and Mitt Romney. After I read all of these, please tell me which 2 bother you the most.

Percent saying this bothers them (top 2 concerns combined)

30

29

26

20

The plan gives those making over a million dollarsa year an average tax cut of more than 150,000dollars, while cutting programs that middle and

working class families depend on.

The plan allows the child tax credit to expire formany working families, pushing the families of

more than 10 million children deeper into poverty.

The plan cuts Pell Grant scholarships for 10 millionstudents by more than 1,000 dollars and 2 millionchildren would be dropped from early childhood

education.

The plan cuts over 120 billion dollars fromdomestic food aid programs, including food

stamps.

Other cuts that hit the poor and most vulnerable are

concerning, too

11




19

17

13

The plan continues all tax cuts for those makingover 250,000 dollars and lowers corporate tax

rates.

The plan rolls back regulations on banks, insurancecompanies, oil companies and polluters and

eliminates critical regulations designed to protectconsumers and workers.

Total federal spending would be cut back to thelowest level since 1950, when Medicare, Medicaid,federal funding for education, highways, and major

federal activities didn't exist.

Last tier of concerns

12




43

37

37

33

30

The plan cuts the federal education budget by 20 percent,which would force states to pay more for education, cut

their budgets significantly, or lay-off more teachers.

The plan allows the child tax credit to expire for manyworking families, pushing the families of 2 million children

back into poverty.

The plan allows the child tax credit to expire for manyworking families, pushing the families of more than 10

million children deeper into poverty.

The budget privatizes Medicare, massively cuts health carespending for seniors, and freezes spending under inflation,which will force seniors to pay 6 thousand dollars more a

year for their health care.

The plan cuts Pell Grant scholarships for 10 millionstudents by more than 1,000 dollars and 2 million children

would be dropped from early childhood education.

Among Hispanics, education cuts stand out

13




45

38

37

The plan allows the child tax credit to expire formany working families, pushing the families of

2 million children back into poverty.

The budget privatizes Medicare, massively cutshealth care spending for seniors, and freezes

spending under inflation, which will forceseniors to pay 6 thousand dollars more a year

for their health care.

The plan cuts the federal education budget by20 percent, which would force states to pay

more for education, cut their budgetssignificantly, or lay-off more teachers.

And among the Rising American Electorate, pushing families

with children back into poverty is simply unacceptable

14




Ryan budget facts: Split A predominantly general

facts; Split B equal general and vulnerable facts

15

The budget privatizes Medicare, massively cuts health care spending for seniors, and freezes spending under inflation, which will force seniors to pay 6 thousand dollars more a


Split A – 5 general : 1 vulnerable

The plan cuts the federal education budget by 20 percent, which would force states to pay more for education, cut

their budgets significantly, or lay-off more teachers.

The plan continues all tax cuts for those making over 250,000 dollars and lowers corporate tax rates.

The plan rolls back regulations on banks, insurance companies, oil companies and polluters and eliminates critical regulations designed to protect consumers and

workers.

Total federal spending would be cut back to the lowest level since 1950, when Medicare, Medicaid, federal funding for education, highways, and major federal

activities didn't exist.

The plan gives those making over a million dollars a year an average tax cut of more than 150,000 dollars, while

cutting programs that middle and working class families depend on.

The plan allows the child tax credit to expire for many working families, pushing the families of more than 10

million children deeper into poverty.

The plan cuts Pell Grant scholarships for 10 million students by more than 1,000 dollars and 2 million children

would be dropped from early childhood education.

The plan cuts over 120 billion dollars from domestic food aid programs, including food stamps.

The plan allows the child tax credit to expire for many working families, pushing the families of 2 million children

back into poverty.

The budget privatizes Medicare, massively cuts health care spending for seniors, and freezes spending under inflation, which will force seniors to pay 6 thousand dollars more a


The plan continues all tax cuts for those making over 250,000 dollars and lowers corporate tax rates.

Vulnerable General Split B – 3 general : 3 vulnerable

31

32

34

61

62

62

Very serious doubts Serious doubts

Strongest developed attacks parallel worries about

Ryan budget

(MEDICARE) The budget privatizes Medicare, massively cuts health care spending for seniors, and freezes spending under inflation, which will force seniors to pay 6 thousand dollars more a year for their health care.

(TAX INCREASE) The budget proposed by Republicans in Congress lets tax cuts for low-income Americans expire, giving the families of 18 million children a tax increase of up to 1,400 dollars, while millionaires actually get a tax cut of a quarter million dollars.

(PUSH BACK INTO POVERTY) The budget proposed by Republicans in Congress lets tax cuts for low-income Americans expire, pushing the families of 2 million children back into poverty by giving some a tax increase of up to 1,400 dollars, while millionaires actually get a tax cut of a quarter million dollars.

16

Now I'm going to read you some of the things critics are saying about the Republican budget plan, which Mitt Romney

has supported. After I read each one, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor

doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about Mitt Romney.

30

30

31

59

59

59


Attacks on Ryan budget’s cuts to education and food stamps

equally strong, and framing the debate as a choice is

strongest driver of the vote

(EDUCATION) The budget proposed by Republicans in Congress slashes education funding by 20 percent, including the biggest-ever cuts to Pell Grants, which provide college aid for low and moderate income students at a time when college costs are through the roof.

(FOOD STAMPS) The budget proposed by Republicans in Congress slashes the average daily food stamp benefit of just four dollars and 47 cents for nearly 50 million Americans, including over 16 million children and 5 million babies and toddlers, who will face the risk of going hungry each day, endangering their health and school readiness.

(CHOICE) The budget proposed by Republicans in Congress gives millionaires a bigger tax cut than George W. Bush gave them, an average tax cut of a quarter million dollars. To pay for tax cuts for those at the very top, their plan has seniors pay thousands more out of pocket and slashes college aid.

17

Now I'm going to read you some of the things critics are saying about the Republican budget plan, which Mitt Romney

has supported. After I read each one, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor

doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about Mitt Romney.

21

22

27

51

51

56


Republican attacks on Democrats not nearly as

strong

(RESPONSIBLE) The country has not had a budget in over 3 years because Democrats refuse to pass one. Instead they choose to rely on short term spending bills that add to our deficit and create uncertainty. Democrats in the Senate have failed to do their job for over 3 years.

(DECLINE) We offer a serious pro-growth plan to cut our budget but the President and Democrats in Congress propose more job-killing taxes and budget-busting big government spending that punish businesses, cost jobs, and put our economy at risk.

18

Now I'm going to read you some of the things critics are saying about Democrats in Congress, who all voted against

this budget plan. After I read each one, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor

doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about Democrats in Congress.

(TAX CODE) The Democrats' tax policies punish families and small businesses. Democrats want to raise taxes, which is the worst thing we can do in this economy. Cutting and simplifying taxes will give families and small businesses more money, but Democrats continue to block our efforts.

49 51 49 46 43 45

Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney

Revote NOT

including vulnerable

Revote including

vulnerable

+8 +4

By focusing on what the Ryan budget does to the most

vulnerable, Obama doubles his margin against Romney

19

Initial Vote

I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election this November, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were -- Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote?

+3

I want you to imagine you are watching one of the presidential debates on the topic of the federal budget. In his concluding statement, Mitt Romney says that he supports the Ryan budget because it reflects his values. President Obama says that he opposes the Ryan budget, particularly because of what it would do to the most vulnerable. Considering these two statements, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote?

I want you to imagine you are watching one of the presidential debates on the topic of the federal budget. In his concluding statement, Mitt Romney says that he supports the Ryan budget because it reflects his values. President Obama says that he opposes the Ryan budget. Considering these two statements, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote?

52 50 50 49 43 44 47 44

Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney

+9 +6

Hearing about cuts to the most vulnerable and Obama framing

it as the choice puts him in a strong position against Romney

20

Heard even split of facts Heard mostly facts about cuts

in budget in general Heard even split of facts

Heard mostly facts about cuts in budget in general

+3 +5

I want you to imagine you are watching one of the

presidential debates on the topic of the federal budget.

In his concluding statement, Mitt Romney says that he

supports the Ryan budget because it reflects his values.

President Obama says that he opposes the Ryan

budget, particularly because of what it would do to

the most vulnerable. Considering these two

statements, if the election for president were held today

and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and

Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote?


presidential debates on the topic of the federal budget.

In his concluding statement, Mitt Romney says that he

supports the Ryan budget because it reflects his values.

President Obama says that he opposes the Ryan

budget. Considering these two statements, if the

election for president were held today and the

candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and

Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote?

46 51

44 40

Obama Romney Obama Romney

+2 +11

Obama can win over independents

21

Net shift: +9

Among independents

I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the

presidential election this November, if the election for

president were held today and the candidates were --

Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt

Romney, for whom would you vote?


presidential debates on the topic of the federal

budget. In his concluding statement, Mitt Romney

says that he supports the Ryan budget because it

reflects his values. President Obama says that he

opposes the Ryan budget, particularly because of

what it would do to the most vulnerable.

Considering these two statements, if the election for

president were held today and the candidates were



63 65

32 31


+31 +34

And increases lead among Rising American

Electorate

22

Net shift: +3

Among Rising American Electorate

















63 69

32 28


















Driven by unmarried women

23

Among unmarried women

+31 +41

Net shift: +10

Focus groups yield strong reaction against Romney

and the Ryan budget cuts to the poor

24

“So you increase the taxes and

then they lose their job, they’ll

never get ahead. They’ll be

digging in the hole further and

further and they can’t get out.”

“It doesn’t seem fair. It doesn’t make any

sense. Yeah, it’s crazy. Because they [the

poor] don’t have any money and then you’re

gonna tax them more. That’s hitting them on

both ends.”

“It’s just wrong, in my opinion. Lower

income Americans, to me, it’s like trying to

squeeze blood from a turnip, is that the

saying? They’re doing what they can,

they’re not gonna make more money. I think

of Robin Hood, where the king is stealing

from the poor to make more money.”

“I feel like what he [Romney] wants

to pass is morally wrong.”

“And it’s not the kids fault that the

families are poor…”

“I feel like he [Romney] doesn’t really

understand poor people.”

*Note: From Democracy Corps focus groups in suburban Columbus, June 4, 2012.

Support for the child tax credit is strong – voters are opposed to letting

it expire, pushing families with children back into poverty

Voters are concerned about the morality of the choices the Ryan budget makes, hitting the most vulnerable, including kids, the hardest when times are tough

Republicans’ arguments that poor people don’t pay taxes or the credit was meant to only be temporary are not as strong as Democrats’ moral arguments

Strong moral argument on food stamps gets your attention


The child tax credit

25

30 35

46 50

9 10

13 15

Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25)

The child tax credit and working poor start out in a

very favorable light

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE

feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any

number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If

you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so.

Mean: 66.1

Net: +35

The child tax credit

Mean: 64.5

Net: +33

The working poor

26

Pushing people back into poverty robs them of the

American dream

27

The best case against allowing the credit to expire articulates that doing so would push the families of 2 million children back into poverty. This argument is more powerful than the argument that it would push the families of 10 million children deeper into poverty. “Pushing families back” suggests that these are aspirational and responsible families who are trying to work hard; pushing them “back” into poverty not only has an impact on these families, but also suggests something dark about Americans’ ability to achieve the American Dream.

37

29

(HALF SAMPLE) The plan allows the child taxcredit to expire for many working families,

pushing the families of 2 million children backinto poverty.

(HALF SAMPLE) The plan allows the child taxcredit to expire for many working families,

pushing the families of more than 10 millionchildren deeper into poverty.

Voters strongly against pushing 2 million people back

into poverty; stronger than 10 million deeper

28




Reinforced in focus groups: people recoil from pushing the

families of 2 million children back into poverty

29

“People who are on that brink,

they struggle hard and they work

really hard to get out of that mess

and to push them back into it isn’t

fair. Why even work?”

“I hate to see people who have been

struggling to get out of poverty

knocked back down.”

“I just think it’s completely

unacceptable in this country for that

many children to live in poverty.”

*Note: From Democracy Corps focus groups in suburban Columbus, June 4, 2012.

“You don’t want to push them back.

They may be just starting to come

up.”

“It has a ripple effect.”

20

23

24

25

53

55

53

55


Over 50 percent register serious doubts about not

extending the child tax credit

We need to extend the child tax credit. If we don't, the families of 2 million children will be pushed back into poverty. That's just wrong and is not what we stand for as Americans.

We need to extend the child tax credit. If we don't, millions of working families with children will see a tax increase of up to 1,400 dollars. That's just wrong and is not what we stand for as Americans.

We need to extend the child tax credit. If we don't, the families of 18 million children will receive a tax increase. That's just wrong and is not what we stand for as Americans.

30

If the Republican budget plan is enacted, many families will lose all or part of their refundable child tax credit, which provides up to a 1,000

dollar tax credit for each child of the working poor, those whose incomes average around 21,000 dollars a year. A family has to be working in

order to receive it. If the value of a family's credit exceeds the amount of tax they owe, they may receive part or all of the difference in the form

of a refund check. Now I'm going to read you some of the things critics are saying about the plan to not extend the child tax credit. After I read

each one, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about the

plan to not extend the child tax credit.

We can't balance the budget on the backs of the most vulnerable. The deficit is important, but it is more important to prevent a 20 percent increase in the poverty rate among babies and toddlers.

25

40

31 25 24

36 30

22

Total Hispanics RisingAmericanElectorate

Seniors Total Hispanics RisingAmericanElectorate

Seniors

We need to extend the child tax credit. If we don't, the families of 2 million children will be pushed back into poverty. That's just wrong and is not what we stand for as Americans.

Now I'm going to read you some of the things critics are saying about the plan to not extend the child tax credit. After I read each one,

please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about the plan to

not extend the child tax credit.

Best child tax credit messages strong with key

groups

55

69 64 62

53

65 62

61

We need to extend the child tax credit. If we don't, millions of working families with children will see a tax increase of up to 1,400 dollars. That's just wrong and is not what we stand for as Americans.

32

35

38

44

58

66

69

71

Very convincing Somewhat convincing

The moral argument to support programs that benefit

the working poor is very strong

(AMERICAN WAY) It is in our DNA as Americans to help the less fortunate and programs like food stamps, Medicaid, unemployment insurance and the child tax credit are good ways to help people fallen on hard times.

(MORAL) We need to be wise about how we spend our money, but it is morally wrong to cut programs like food stamps, that benefit those who are genuinely in need. We simply cannot let people starve.

(KIDS) Programs like food stamps, Medicaid, unemployment insurance and the child tax credit benefit millions of kids, who are poor due to no fault of their own.

32

I'm going to read you some statements that some people may make in favor of programs that benefit the working poor.

After I read each one, please tell me how convincing a reason it is to support programs that benefit the working poor --

is it a very convincing reason, somewhat convincing, just a little convincing, or not at all a convincing reason to support

programs that benefit the working poor.

(CHOICE) We need to reduce our deficits, but if we can afford subsidies for oil companies and massive tax breaks and loopholes for the wealthiest, we can afford to take care of the poorest citizens who need it most.

51

38

50

44

78

69

72

71


Hispanics respond powerfully to these messages



33

I'm going to read you some statements that some people may make in favor of programs that benefit the working poor.

After I read each one, please tell me how convincing a reason it is to support programs that benefit the working poor --

is it a very convincing reason, somewhat convincing, just a little convincing, or not at all a convincing reason to support

programs that benefit the working poor.

Total

Hispanics

Total

Hispanics

41 38

47 49

36 32 33

43

Independent Seniors Suburban RisingAmericanElectorate

Independent Seniors Suburban RisingAmericanElectorate



I'm going to read you some statements that some people may make in favor of programs that benefit the working poor. After I read each

one, please tell me how convincing a reason it is to support programs that benefit the working poor -- is it a very convincing reason,

somewhat convincing, just a little convincing, or not at all a convincing reason to support programs that benefit the working poor.

The moral argument and focusing on kids powerful

among other key voters

67 73 73 74

68 66 72 73

28

31

38

44

55

56

69

71


Messages in favor of keeping programs that benefit the

working poor, like food stamps, more convincing

(DON’T PAY TAXES) People who receive the refundable tax credit make so little money that they get more back in refunds than they pay in taxes. We shouldn't be giving away money to those who don't pay taxes at all.


35

How convincing a reason is the following to NOT support programs that benefit the working poor?

(TEMPORARY) Extending food stamps and unemployment benefits were meant to be just a temporary measure in Obama's stimulus program. This can't go on forever. It hasn't worked, it increased our debt burden, and we can't afford more stimulus now.


EUROPEAN HEADQUARTERS 405 Carrington House 6 Hertford Street London, UK W1J 7SU T: +44.(0).207.096.5070 F: +44.(0).207.096.5068

WORLD HEADQUARTERS 10 G Street, NE Suite 500 Washington, DC 20002 T: 202.478.8300 F: 202.478.8301

LATIN AMERICAN HEADQUARTERS Cabrera 6060, 7D C1414 BHN Ciudad de Buenos Aires, Argentina T: +54.11.4772.0813

www.greenbergresearch.com | www.gqrr.com

Documents

Serious attack on Ryan budget takes toll on Mitt Romney