SEPTEMBER 19 /22

OPEN-NOTE QUIZ OVER KI 3&4SEPTEMBER 23 /24

Chapter 2: Population

Happy Friday/Monday

The Demographic Transition

What is it?

What can it tell us about a society?

Historically, no country has ever reverted back to a previous stage. Thus, the model can be thought to have a beginning,

middle, and an end.

The Demographic Transition

Stage 1

Stage 1: Low Growth How can we describe its

characteristics?

CBR CDR NIR

Hunting and Gathering were the ways people sustained their populations during this period What is life like in a hunting and gathering

society?

Stage 2

Stage 2: High Growth What are its characteristics?

CBR CDR NIR

What caused the declining CDR? Europe & N. America:

Cause When

Africa, Asia, & LA? Cause When

Stage 3

Stage 3: Moderate Growth Characteristics?

CBR: CDR: NIR:

NOTE: Pop still grows (even though the lines are going down) because CBR is greater than CDR

Most European & N. American countries transitioned to stage 3 in first half of 20th century.

What might explain the rapid decline in CBR? Delayed reaction to decline in mortality Economic changes – how?

Stage 4

Stage 4: Low Growth Characteristics?

CBR CDR NIR

When is a country said to have reached stage 4?

Zero Population Growth (ZPG) Definition What might explain why?

What causes the population of a country in stage 4 to increase?

NOTE on Stage 4

Countries reach stage 4 for positive reasons! Think about the changes in quality of life lead to a

country reaching stage 4

Being in Stage 4 has its negatives

Possible Stage 5

Increasing CDR, very low CBR, negative NIR Example: Russia

Why increasing CDR?

Why low CBR?

Lowering CBR

Two Successful Strategies for Lowering Birth Rates What are they? Which works faster?

Percentage of Women Using Family Planning

Thomas Malthus

Malthus: English economist who wrote An Essay on the Principles of Population in 1798

Thesis: Arithmetic vs Geometric Said population would press up against resources

unless…

Neo-Malthusians

Neo-Malthusians: argue that Malthus was right and things are worse than ever now. Why?

Malthusian Critics

Critics of Malthus argue that he is wrong. Why?

Malthus Today

Was he right or wrong so far?

Population Growth and Decline

The US and Japan are both Stage 4 countries. Why is Japan facing a possible population decline while the US is expected to continue to have population growth? Japan: labor force shortage vs shortage of NIR:

women dilemma

Family Planning: India vs. China

India: family planning programs such as contraceptives and abortions since 1950s

China: 1 child policy since 1980Which has been more effective? Why?

One Child Policy: Repercussions

“Sex ratio issue? Almost every one of the pregnant women I spoke to had suffered a mandatory abortion. One woman told me how, when she was eight months pregnant with an illegal second child and was unable to pay the 20,000 yuan fine (about $3,200), family planning officers dragged her to the local clinic, bound her to a surgical table and injected a lethal drug into her abdomen... It is not surprising that China has the highest rate of female suicide in the world. The one-child policy has reduced women to numbers, objects, a means of production; it has denied them control of their bodies and the basic human right to determine freely and responsibly the number and spacing of their children. Baby girls are also victims of the policy. Under family pressure to ensure that their only child is a son, women often choose to abort baby girls or discard them at birth, practices that have skewed China’s sex ratio to 118 boys for every 100 girls.”-Ma Jian, NYT May 21, 2013

Exit Ticket

On a half-sheet of paper, write one paragraph labeling the CDR, CBR, and NIR of the stages of the demographic transition, including the possible 5th stage.