Seminar I

The Dynamics of Food Security

Concepts, Policies & Threats

W5

‘The existence of massive hunger is even more of a tragedy because it has

been largely accepted as being essentially unpreventable’

Amartya Sen

Food Insecurity

It is recognized that poverty is ‘a major cause of food insecurity and [that] sustainable progress in poverty eradication is critical to improving access to food’ but that ‘conflict, terrorism, corruption and environmental degradation also contribute significantly to food insecurity’. Rome Declaration, 1996

Why Do We Need Food Security?

FAMINE

Famine Trajectories:

Natural Disasters

(severe droughts & floods mainly in Africa)

Malevolent Exercise of State Power

(Soviet Union & China)

Conflict

(esp. SSA since 1960s)

Famine in 20th Century

Period I1900 –1920: Mortality very low and confined to Africa

Period II1920 – 1970: 85 % of famine deaths, predominantly China and Soviet Union

 Period III

1970 – 2000: 12% of famine deaths, all in Africa and South/Southeast Asia

Famine in 20th Century

20th century was worst ever for famine mortality Drought famines in Nigeria (1927, 1942/43), Ethiopia (1980s)

War famines in Angola (1974/5, 1993/4, 2001/2), Zaire (1977/8, 1997), Liberia (1992/3), Sierra Leone (1995/8)

Many famines have no mortality estimates available, approx. 70 million to 80 million deaths in 20th century

Technical capacity to eradicate famine was first achieved

21st century famines still persist Mass mortality famines: N. Korea, Ethiopia and Sudan

21st Century Deaths related to Famines

2000 Ethiopia, tens of thousands of deaths (drought)

2000 – ongoing, Uganda, unknown (conflict)

2001 – 2003 Horn & Southern Africa, tens of thousands of deaths (drought)

2002 Angola, thousands of deaths (conflict)

Case: Asia

1940s Bengal famine resulted with Indian gov’t being made accountable for famine prevention

Apparent eradication of famine in India by the early 1970s

Microeconomic vulnerability to famine persisted minor floods and major market failure led to catastrophic famine in Bangladesh 1974.

Improvements in infrastructures and political accountability have contributed to prevention

Case: Africa

1920s – 1950 period of low famine incidence

Military dictatorships replaced colonial administrations, led to era of ‘War-Triggered Famines’

1980s and 90s:

‘Conflict-triggered’ famines in countries not famine-prone

‘Drought-triggered’ famine nations experienced complex-emergencies

Contributing factors: poor infrastructure, microeconomic vulnerability, political instability

1980s, information systems & international response capacity greatly improved

Increasingly complex negative synergies between natural triggers, economic vulnerability & political culpability have contributed to higher frequency

Hunger Map of Africa:Drought Affected Countries

Dought Affected AfricaPeople at risk? More than 38 million people are victims of a vast hunger crisis in Africa.

Countries affected? Severe food shortages exist in several large regions of the continent: southern Africa, the Horn of Africa, the region of Western Sahel and West Africa's Mano River countries.

Southern Africa Horn of Africa Lesotho -- 650,000 Uganda -- 500,000 Malawi -- 3.3 million Sudan -- 2.9 million Mozambique -- 590,000 Eritrea -- 3.3 million Zambia -- 2.9 million Ethiopia -- 11 million Swaziland -- 270,000 Zimbabwe -- 6.7 million Zambia -- 2.9 million Angola -- 1.9 million

Zambia: Drought-Related Famine60% of population in the Southern province needs immediate food aid

Severe flooding - the maize crop was almost a total failure, previous year's production fell by a quarter - most farmers have little in reserve to cope with the current crisis.

Many Zambians collect, sell and eat wild food just to get by, or have resorted to crop-stealing and poaching.

Even when the hungry can afford food, Zambia's low population density means that an exhausting journey on foot is required to reach the marketplace.

Hunger is forcing children to drop out of school.

The 20 percent rate of HIV/AIDS infection prevents thousands of young people from working in the fields.

Uganda: Conflict-Related Famine

Uganda: Conflict-Related Famine

Last 18 years, people in northern Uganda have endured brutal conflict 1.6 million people have been displaced and now live in squalid conditions Civilians have been attacked and killed by the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) in their villages, as well as in the camps LRA has abducted tens of thousands of children, forcing them into combat and sexual slaveryUgandan army has moved hundreds of thousands of civilians against their will into “protected villages” that offer little security and hardly any assistance, and has victimized ordinary people with brutal raids against suspected LRA militants. Death toll from direct violence is tens of thousands, chronic food and water shortages in the 200 makeshift settlements throughout the north have also exacted a heavy price. Many are dying from preventable diseases like malaria, respiratory disease, and diarrhea

The Persistence of Famine?

Recent successes in averting famine in Bangladesh, Bosnia & Mongolia…

Recent food crises in Ethiopia, Iraq, Madagascar, Malawi & Sudan

Recent drop in number of mortalities due to famine

Since 1980s, famines have resided in the Horn of Africa

Shift in famines from Europe & Asia to Sub-Saharan Africa is associated with drop in famine mortality

What is Food Security?

‘Food security as the availability at all times of adequate world supplies of basic foodstuffs..to sustain a steady expansion of food consumption ..and to offset fluctuations in production and prices’. Rome Declaration 1975

Types of Food Security

Household Food Security – assuring or enhancing access to food for the poorest, most food-insecure households and groups

 National Food Security – ensuring availability, adequacy and stability of

supplies of food at the global and national level Acute Food Insecurity – severe short-term problem, a crisis associated

with an environmental or economic shock or a continuing emergency  Chronic Food Insecurity – long-term problem, lack of access of

vulnerable households to adequate levels of food for normal human development – fundamentally intertwined with problems of poverty and inadequate livelihoods

 

Evolution of Thinking About Food Security

Three fundamental shifts in food security thinking since the 1970s:

1. Level of analysis: from global and national to the household and individual

2. Scope of analysis: from a narrow ‘food first’ perspective to a broader livelihood perspective (sustainable)

3. Assessment of food (in)security: from objective indicators to subjective perceptions

Who are the Key Actors?

Donors:

Bilateral – Governments

Multilateral – United Nations

Non-Governmental Organisations

• Farmers, Public

Private Corporations – Agri & Biotech Industry

Recipient Nations

Donors: Bilateral - Government

Bilateral flows generally are budgeted in monetary rather than volume terms

Traditionally, donors’/suppliers’ interest have been in expanding export markets and reducing surplus stocks

US is the worlds primary bilateral donor, accounting for more than half of all donor food aid commitments worldwide

Donors: Multilateral – UN/WFPMultilateral donors are dependent on bilateral donors for their resources or private donations

Focus on recipient needs or obliged to supplier interests?

Growing rapidly in the past quarter century, tracking the hyper-expansion of emergency food aid

World Food Programme (WFP), est. by UN FAO and General Assembly in 1961,

Responsible for 90% of multilateral food aid & 30% of all food aid worldwide

Main channel for emergency food aid

Develop ways to use food in food-for-work projects

Raise share of resources through consolidated appeals to donor gov’t for supplemental aid

Triangular Transactions and local purchases

Donors – Private Sector

Multinational Corporations, involved in Agriculture & Biotech

Provision of agricultural inputs: seeds, herbicides, fertilizers

Provide financial resources - ‘donations’

Donating technologies – genetic markers, gene promoters, insect protection technology

Transfer of information

Provide training session to adopt improved practices

Donors: Non-Governmental OrgsSince 1980s, a sharp increase in the role of NGOs as channel for food aid

Provide greater degree of direct accountability to donor gov’ts, esp. where donor distrust of recipient gov’t is high

Provide a way of quietly circumventing traditional reluctance to violate sovereignty of a nation

Perceived as more neutral in conflict situations

Have staff in areas where donors and multilateral agencies may not have, so can provide independent, on-site assessments of rapidly changing situations

NGOs..Often the only viable orgs remaining/functioning on the ground in emergency situations

Since mid-1990s, NGOs accounted for 20% of global food aid transfers, a larger share of emergency resources are now directed through NGOs

UN agencies have established more formal contractual relations with NGOs, (WFP in ’95)

NGOs receive surplus crops from some Northern-based farmers

NGOs receive private donations from the public

When did the notion of Food Security come about?

1950sFood aid programs took present form in the early 1950s

US Public Law 480 (PL480), the Agricultural Trade Development and Assistance Act of 1954, a legal framework for US food aid

1950s and 1960s, food aid was a surplus disposal mechanism for dealing with the growing grain surpluses in North America

1960s

Allocations on a bilateral basis, to politically friendly allies

1961, World Food Programme (WFP)

Insignificant role in international food aid, 4% of total food aid transfers

Two fundamental norms of food aid:

Reflect the political and economic goals of the donors foreign policy

Transfers were allocated in order to not undermine commercial food exports, to protect commercial trade

1970s

Transformation of foreign aid policy – emergence of development-oriented food aid regimeWorld food crisis 1972-74, severe food shortages World Food Conference in Rome, 1974New consensus that food aid was to be conceptualized as a development resourceNew principles:

Improvement in agricultural productionMulti-year programming of food aidTriangular food aid transactionsIncreased use of multilateral channelsMore criteria for bilateral allocationsMore emphasis on evaluations for programming of additional quantities

1980s

Food aid integrated into development projects

Reform of WFP into full-fledged “development agency”:

Responsible for coordination of large-scale international emergency operations

Transport and logistics for bilateral programmes & NGOs

New relations with leading international agencies

Increase in channelling allocations for donors, 25% of all shipments

1990s

Sharp distinction between emergency food aid and longer term development aid

Emergency food aid increasingly seen as residual component of food aid

Notion that food security is best achieved by ensuring food aid contributes to long-term agricultural development of recipient countries

Trend: Donors differ in their approach to food aid

Food Security Evolution of Thinking

Conceptually and Chronologically

I. Three Fundamental Shifts in Food Security Thinking Since the 1970s

II. Six Phases of Food Security Policy and Practice

Three Paradigm Shifts of Food Security

1. Level of Analysis: from the Global and the National to the Household and the Individual

2. Scope of Analysis: from a Food First Perspective to a Livelihood Perspective

3. Assessment of Food (In)Security: from Objective Indicators to Subjective Perception

1. From the Global & National....to Household/Individual

‘Food security as the availability at all times of adequate world supplies of basic food-stuffs..to sustain a steady expansion of food consumption

..and to offset fluctuations in production and prices. (UN 1975)

Focus on supply, national self-sufficiency and proposals for world food stocks

**However, widespread hunger could/did co-exist with adequate food supply at national and international levels

Amartya Sen (1981) initiated the shift away from national to the issue of access of the individual to food

2. From a Food First Perspective....to a Livelihood Perspective

Began 1985 - stimulated by observation of the African famine in 1984

Conventional view of food security - food as a primary need:

‘Food security stands as a fundamental need, basic to all human needs and the organisation of social life. Access to necessary nutrients is fundamental, not only to life per se, but also to stable and enduring

social order’ (Hopkins, 1986)

Shift - short-term nutritional intake is only one of the objectives people pursue.

Central Findings of the Period

Livelihood: objectives other than nutritional adequacy were pursued

Time preference: people going hungry now, in order to avoid going (more) hungry later

3. From Objective Indicators.. ..to Subjective Perception

Conventional approaches relied on objective measurements:

Target levels of consumption

Timely, reliable and nutritionally adequate supply of food

Problems Related to an Objective Approach

Quantitative measure without qualitative aspects is problematic because..

• A function of age, health, size, workload, environment and behaviour.

• Calorie requirements for average adults and children with average activity patterns in average years are subject to constant revision.

• Nutritional requirements have to be treated as value judgements.

1. technical food quality

2. consistency with local food habits

3. cultural acceptability

4. human dignity

Considering the subjective dimension, a further definition arose:

‘A country & people are food secure when their food system operates in such a way as to remove the fear that there will

not be enough to eat. In particular, food security will be achieved when the poor and vulnerable, particularly

women and children and those living in marginal areas, have secure access to the food they want’(1988).

History of Food Security

1. 1974-80: Global Food Security

2. 1981-90: Food Entitlement & Structural Adjustment

3. 1991-00: Poverty, Not Food Security

4. 2001..: Where Next?

1974-80: Global Food Security

World food crisis, famine in parts of the Africa, esp. the Sahel and Horn

Doubling of grain prices, caused by harvest failure in, and grain imports by, the Soviet Union.

‘ ..from 1945 until the early 1970s, US food surpluses had, in effect, been the guarantor of world food security. The massive food aid to India during its drought crisis of 1965-66 is a good example. The US abdicated this solo role by its prioritization of commercial sales to the then USSR and its explicit use of food as a political weapon. By 1974..there was a considerable institutional gap to be filled.’

1974, World Food Conference recognized global problem, focused attention on global production, trade and stocks.

World Food Council was established, to monitor world food availability.

FAO set up a committee on World Food Security

Milestones (con’t)

1981-5: Food Entitlement & Structural Adjustment

Academically, question of poverty and access began

Acceptance that food production on its own did not assure consumption - people needed access to food.

Amartya Sen’s Poverty and Famines (1981) codified the idea of ‘food entitlement’

European Community launched its ‘Plan of Action to Combat Hunger in the World’

FAO adopted a broader concept of food security, prominence on access, production & stability of food

1986-90: The Golden AgeAfrican famine renewed impetus to action on hunger & its causes

World attention drawn to social costs of structural adjustment, (UNICEF, Adjustment with a Human Face)

WB, FAO, EC continued to commission reseach on Food Strategies

Many African countries hosted food security studies by leading international organisations

Great deal of academic work on food security, Hunger and Public Action (Jean Dreze and Sen, 1989)

1991-5: Poverty, Not Food Security

Donors dropped/downgraded food security studies & programmes in favour of poverty assessments and reduction programmes

Change in nature of famines – 80s associated with drought but 90s associated with war

Problems were with food supplies in complex emergencies

1996 – 2000: All Talk, No Action1996, World Food Summit, more than 100 heads of states and governments met to address issue that 800 million women, men and children do not have access to sufficient food

Objective: to raise political will

‘..the World Food Summit, like other summits, was premised on the assumption that, by drawing national leaders together in a public forum to commit themselves collectively to tackle major issues to global concern in a concerted manner, it would reinforce their

determination to bring about change and heighten their accountability’ (FAO, 2001).

WFS…Results?

A single commitment to reduce chronic under-nutrition in half by 2015

Countries to prepare national action plans to be monitored by FAO committee

Main difficulty of the Summit - lack of firm commitment and actions by national governments

2001… What Next?

Reviews +5 yrs showed that little action followed on the commitments made, implementation and follow-ups are off target

National governments are unable/unwilling to follow-up on commitments

1 in 6 persons live in poverty and food insecurity, 842 million suffer from chronic hunger

Many nations cannot create conditions for ensuring food security for its entire people

Basics of Food Aid

Key Distinctions/Definitions

Food Assistance Programs (also “food-related transfers”): any intervention to address hunger and undernutrition (e.g., food stamps, WIC, food subsidies, food price stabilization, etc.).

Food Aid: - international concessional flows in the form of food or of cash to purchase food in support of food assistance programs.

Key distinction: international sourcing of concessional resources tied to the provision of food.

Basics of Food Aid

A Quick History of Modern Food Aid:

- 1954, Public Law 480 (PL480) in the U.S. The U.S. and Canada accounted for >90% of global flows through early 1970s, when the UN’s World Food Programme became a major player. 

- Peaked at 22% of global aid flows in ’65, now <5%

- Food Aid Convention agreed 1967, guides policies of 22 nations and EU, monitored through the Consultative Sub-Committee on Surplus Disposal.

- Rise of WFP since mid-1970s, decline of US PL 480. Move to multilateralism. EU/Canada move to cut program food aid and to decouple from domestic farm programs.

- Modest rise of triangular transactions/local purchases since 1984.

Basics of Food Aid

Relative to international standards, ~30% of the world’s nations suffer macronutrient availability shortfalls relative to international standards (2350 Kcal/55 g protein/day per capita) …

Daily Macronutrient Availability Per Person(shaded areas below minima)

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000Calories

Pro

tein

(g

ram

s)

10.3%

2.9%16.6%

70.3%

Data source: FAO Food Balance Sheets

… concessional food flows have potential to fill the gap.

Basics of Food Aid

Program : subsidized deliveries of food to a central government that subsequently sells the food and uses the proceeds for whatever purpose (not necessarily food assistance). Program food aid provides budgetary and balance of payments relief for recipient governments.

Project : provides support to field-based projects in areas of chronic need through deliveries of food (usually free) to a government or NGO that either uses it directly (e.g., Food for Work, school feeding) or monetizes it, using the proceeds for project activities.

Emergency/Humanitarian: deliveries of free food to GO/NGO agencies responding to crisis due to natural disaster or conflict.

Global Food Aid Flows By Type

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Mill

ions

of m

etric

tons

Emergency

Project

Program

Source: WFP

3 Types of Food Aid:

Where are we now?

1. Shift towards emergency food aid

2. Shift in the geographical focus of food aid

3. Shift in channels of distribution

4. A general decline in food aid levels

5. Growing diversity in donor approaches

1. Shift Towards Emergency Food Aid

1970s - emergency food aid accounted for 10 % of total food aid transfers (1mil tons/annum)

1980s - emergency food aid accounted for 20% of total food aid

1990s - emergency food aid in global transfers continued to increase (4mil tons/annum)

Trend: Increase in the volume of food aid for relief

2. Shift in the Geographical Focus of Food Aid

1950s - 70s: global food aid primarily to Asia (75%)

1980s - 90s: growing food crises in SSA = major shift

1990s: channelling to Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union increased (27%)

1993: 29 countries had acute food shortages from armed conflict where food was used as weapon

1994: 20 mil displaced persons as inter’l refugees and 30 mil IDPs

Trend: During Cold War era, regional conflicts focused in S.E. Asia & L.A., in post-Cold War, emergencies tend to be in Africa, E. Europe, Caucasus and C.Asia

3. Shift in Channels of Distribution

1960s: 7% of food aid directed by multilateral agencies

1970s: bilateral food aid transfers accounted for 80% of global totals

1974 WFC, called for greater multilateralization of food aid by channelling increased resources to WFP

1980s: 20% of food aid transfers shipped through multilateral agencies

Mid-1990s: multilateral aid increased to 30%, gov’t-to-gov’t transfers 50%

Trend: General decline in overall importance of government-to-government food aid transfers

4. General Decline in Food Aid Levels

Highest level recorded in 1960s, 18mil metric tons

1970s: drop to 7mil metric tons

World Food Conference responded by establishing an annual minimal target for donors of 10mil metric tons

1980s: averaged the target amount

Early 1990s: amounts rose sharply because USA was channelling to E. Europe (15mil ’92)

1995: amount was 9.5mil and dropped to 7.5mil in 1996

Trend: Global food aid levels fluctuate dramatically

5. Growing Diversity in Donor Approaches USA - dominant food aid donor

Largest supporters of multilateral channels: Canada, Australia, the Netherlands and Sweden

Greatest use of NGOs: USA, EU, Germany and UK

Donors have diverse geographical areas of interest:

USA and EU have most significantly contributed to E. Europe and former Soviet Republics

Canada, Australia and Japan are more oriented to Asian and Pacific regions

EU, UK and several other European states are more directed to Sub-Saharan Africa

Diversity in Approaches con’t..

Donors differ in the uses of food aid

USA, Germany and France, program food aid constitute the largest share of their food aid disbursements

Project food aid constitutes the largest share of Canadian, Australia and Dutch food aid

EU, Germany, Japan and UK provide the majority of their disbursement in emergency food aid

Trend: Donors differ in their approach to food aid