Seminar Ajay

8/17/2019 Seminar Ajay

1/26

MALAVIYA NATIONAL INSTITUTE O

TECHNOLOGY, JAIPUR

The Probability and Timing of Power Sys

Restoration

GUIDED BY:MR. VINOD SAHAI PAREEK ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR

SUBMITTED BY:

AJAY CHAUDHARY

2012UEE158


2/26

CONTENTS

INTRODUCTIONLEARNING THEORY

CASE STUDIES

CONCLUSIONS


3/26

INTRODUCTION

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4/26

SOLVING THE PROLE! O" NON#ST$N

$N% CO!PLE& RESTOR$TION

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5/26

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7/26

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9/26

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11/26

LE$RNING H'POTHESIS $S $N E!ERG

THEOR'

The simplest learning hypothesis is adopted usifact that humans (Homo sapiens) learn from themistakes.

The learning hypothesis states that the rate ofdecrease of the outcome or error rate with incre

experience is proportional to the outcome or er The resulting dynamic failure rate, for any relevexperience or risk exposure measure, is given b

•


12/26

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13/26

CASE STUDY: LOSING AND RESTO

POWER DISTRIBUTION IN LARGE G

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14/26

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15/26

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17/26

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18/26

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19/26


20/26

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21/26

C$SE ST(%') PRE%ICTING THE RESTOR$TION $NRECOVER' "RO! LOSS O" O""SITE PO*ER "OR GENER$TING (NITS

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22/26

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23/26

!ll the "##$ events should be eventually restoredpower is not restored beyond, say, hours based oexperience basis, there is increasing probability t

ma%or failures involve &non'repair or replacemen ormally, the increasing probability is when * , o

•


24/26

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#4#$(#)3# *!$ '++ %/3 4!"#$ +!%%#%, , %/3 &'&

where the total experience, !verage "##$ durationnumber of plants operatingplant experience'hours

•


25/26

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26/26

CONCLUSIONS

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'++ !-!)!+!(3'+ %%-%.

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Seminar Ajay