“Are countries investing sufficiently at the tertiary education level?”

Benoît Millot

Marseille, 24/01/11

2/1/2011 1

Outline

I. Introduction

II. Approach

III. Investing in tertiary education

IV. Spending and access

V. Spending and quality

VI. Conclusion

2/1/2011 2

I. Introduction

“Are countries investing sufficiently

at the tertiary education level” ?2/1/2011 3

II. Approach (1)

Two directions:

(1) Spending and

Quantities/Access/Coverage

(2) Spending and

Quality

2/1/2011 4

Is the supply of birds sufficient for the cat’s appetite

Is the supply of birds sufficient for the cat?

Approach (2)

• Looks like a “Simple” question

• Use simple methodology: regressions (over-simplistic?)

• Robust results

• But correlation is not causality

2/1/2011 6

Slippery road

2/1/2011 7

III. Investment in Tertiary Ed

Measure: Public Exp on Ter Ed per student, as a % of GDP p.c.

Historical perspective: (from 1999 to 2007)

2/1/2011 8

Public total edu. expenditure per student(% of GDP p.c.), tertiary

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Average

Mini/Max

2/1/2011 9

Investment in Tertiary Ed and Economic level (1)

Do countries tend to spend more public monies

on Tertiary education as they get richer ?

NO

(Almost the other way around)

2/1/2011 10

Investment in Tertiary Ed and Economic level (2)

Tunisia

Lebanon0.000

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

18.000

Tajik

ista

n

Kyrg

yz R

epu

blic

Mo

ldo

va

Gu

yan

a

Para

guay

Iran

, Isl

amic

Rep

.

Bu

lgar

ia

Tun

isia

Leb

ano

n

Ch

ile

Mex

ico

Esto

nia

Mal

ta

Ko

rea,

Rep

.

Ital

y

Au

stra

lia

Net

her

lan

ds

Mac

ao S

AR

, Ch

ina

Den

mar

k

Un

ited

Sta

tes

No

rway

Public Exp per student as % of GDP p.c.

GDP p.c. (log)

2/1/2011 11

Investment in Tertiary Ed and Economic level (3)

Story of two tails

2/1/2011 12

1 Korea, Rep. 8 1 Azerbaijan 8

2 Lebanon 14 2 Kazakhstan 8

3 Japan 15 3 Korea, Rep. 9

4 Argentina 18 4 Philippines 10

5 Azerbaijan 19 5 Liechtenstein 10

55 Swaziland 351 64 Madagascar 137

56 Burundi 1051 65 Togo 155

57 Lesotho 1387 66 Burkina Faso 307

58 Mozambique 1412 67 Niger 553

59 Malawi 2613 68 Ethiopia 643

MAX

Public Exp per student as % of GDP p.c YR1999 YR2007

Min

MENA Countries: Public Exp per student as % of GDP p.c

2/1/2011 13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

YR2002 YR2003 YR2004 YR2005 YR2006

Iran, Islamic Rep.

Morocco

Tunisia

Sample Ave

IV. Spending & Access

Measure : Straightforward:

Gross Enrollment Rate in Tertiary Education:

GER (Ter)

2/1/2011 14

Access: Main features (1)

• The obvious (almost trivial):

• GER (Ter) strongly related to economic level (GDP p.c.) observed in 2007

• Strong and stable positive correlation over the years (2000 to 2008)

GDP p.c. ∆ = + 45%

GER (Ter) ∆ = + 57%

2/1/2011 15

Access: Main features(2)

2/1/2011 16

Burundi

Congo

SaudiArabia

Lebanon

Russia

Ukraine

Finland

Korea

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

0.000 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000

GER (Ter) & Log GDP p.c (2007 & 2007).

Remark Correlation goes both ways:

wealth more access

more participation more growth

2/1/2011 17

Spending & Access (1)

Less intuitive: A stable, moderately strong,

negative correlation:

Higher level investments are linked to lowerlevels of coverage

2/1/2011 18

Spending & Access (2)

Tunisia

Lebanon0.0

20.040.060.080.0

100.0120.0140.0160.0180.0

Mad

agas

car

Cam

ero

on

Aze

rbai

jan

Tajik

ista

n

Para

guay

Liec

hte

nst

ein

Mal

ta

Mo

ldo

va

Cro

atia

Bu

lgar

ia

Kaz

akh

stan

Fran

ce

Ro

man

ia

Isra

el

Esto

nia

Hu

nga

ry

Spai

n

Swed

en

No

rway

Den

mar

k

Fin

lan

d

GER (Ter)

Public Exp per student as % of GDP p.c

2/1/2011 19

Spending & Access (3)

Is there any lag time effect ?

(investment takes some years to concretize) ?

NO: correlation does not change when lag is introduced

2/1/2011 20

Spending & Access (4)

Alternative measure of spending:

relative share of total public education expenditure on Tertiary Education

Is it a better predictor of performances in terms

of access ?

Response: next slide

2/1/2011 21

Spending & Access (5)

2/1/2011 22

Burundi

Cuba

Ecuador

FinlandGreece

Lebanon

MalaysiaTunisia

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Share of tertiary education in total education expenditure and GER (Ter)

Spending & Access (6)

Alternative perspective on investment:

Is private provision linked to wider coverage?

Response: next slide

2/1/2011 23

Spending & Access (7):

Private Provision

Morocco

WB-G

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Den

mar

k

Au

stra

lia

Mo

rocc

o

Cze

ch R

epu

blic

New

Zea

lan

d

Mad

agas

car

Icel

and

Bu

lgar

ia

Spai

n

Hu

nga

ry

Fran

ce

Swit

zerl

and

Lao

PD

R

Pola

nd

Mex

ico

Port

uga

l

Mac

ao S

AR

, …

Jord

an

Geo

rgia

Wes

t B

ank …

Co

lom

bia

El S

alva

do

r

Jap

an

Isra

el

Ber

mu

da

Private enrollment share (%), tertiary

School enrollment, tertiary (% gross)

2/1/2011 24

Spending & Access (8)

Summary

• As countries get richer, access to Ter Ed increases, but public investment in Ter Ed tends to decrease

• Participation in Ter Ed decreases as Public Investment rises, but mildly increase when the Ter Ed share of ed expenditures increases

• Access is insensitive to the density of private penetration

2/1/2011 25

V. Spending & Quality

Measure: Very tricky:

no common metric for international comparisons;

no good, universally accepted proxy

Solution: use major leagues

ARWU and THES

2/1/2011 26

Quality: Measure (1)

From:

# of top 500 universities in a given country

To:

Tertiary Population = ½ Number of youths (15-24) per university in the top 500 in a given country

(or potential clientele of the top universities)

2/1/2011 27

Quality: Measure (2a)

2/1/2011 28

1 Finland 54685 1 Ireland 37443

2 Sweden 55893 2 Finland 46873

3 New Zealand 62292 3 New Zealand 51910

4 Switzerland 68140 4 Switzerland 59622

5 Austria 72041 5 Australia 60715

6 Norway 78231 6 Denmark 67044

7 Israel 80240 7 Hong Kong SAR, China 73851

8 Netherlands 83213 8 Sweden 76853

9 Denmark 83805 9 Norway 78231

10 Australia 85715 10 United Kingdom 78778

11 Belgium 90235 11 Netherlands 83213

12 Canada 97765 12 Belgium 90235

13 Ireland 99849 13 Austria 100857

14 United Kingdom 105728 14 Germany 111770

15 Slovenia 115185 15 Canada 112430

16 Germany 120367 16 Greece 118548

17 Italy 132060 17 Israel 140420

18 United States 146549 18 Singapore 163901

19 Singapore 163901 19 France 181797

20 France 173534 20 Italy 193687

21 Spain 230390 21 Portugal 198833

22 Japan 252743 22 United States 208968

23 Greece 296370 23 Spain 230390

24 Portugal 298249 24 Japan 252743

25 Hungary 310488 25 South Korea 254602

ARWU THES

Quality: Measure (2b)

2/1/2011 29

ARWU

26 South Korea 330983 26 Uruguay 257980

27 Czech 628931 27 Hungary 310488

28 Chile 737664.75 28 Czech Republic 314466

29 Saudi Arabia 1237368.5 29 United Arab Emirates 341773

30 Poland 1330153.8 30 Lebanon 372556

31 South Africa 1631978.2 31 Malaysia 519938

32 Brazil 2811416.2 32 Chile 737665

33 China 3233238.5 33 Saudi Arabia 824912

34 Argentina 3414160.5 34 Thailand 1208413.3

35 Russia 5049081.8 35 Poland 1330153.8

36 Turkey 6825539.5 36 Turkey 1365107.9

37 Iran 8374274.5 37 Kazakhstan 1457104.5

38 Mexico 9938534 38 South Africa 1631978.2

39 India 58764202 39 Argentina 1707080.3

40 Russian Federation 2019632.7

41 Philippines 3048134.7

42 Mexico 4969267

43 Indonesia 5273054.9

44 Brazil 5622832.3

45 Egypt, Arab Rep. 7712652.5

46 Iran, Islamic Rep. 8374274.5

47 China 10948700

48 India 14691050

49 Pakistan 19436096

THES

Quality: Measure (2c)

2/1/2011 30

Quality: main feature

2/1/2011 31

0.000

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

Ter Pop/ Top 500 U (log)

GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) (log)

0.0001.0002.0003.0004.0005.0006.0007.0008.000

Ter Pop/Top 500 U log

GDP per capita (constant

2000 US$) log

Spending and Quality (1): Summary

2/1/2011 32

ARWU THES

Publ Exp per st. as % of GDP p.c. (2001) &

Ter Pop /Top 500 U (log)-0.11 -0.16

Publ Exp per st. as % of GDP p.c. (2007) &

Ter Pop /Top 500 U (log)-0.1 -0.30

Share of Ter in total Ed Expenditures

(2007) & . (2001) & Ter Pop /Top 500 U

(log)

-0.36 -0.44

Private enrollment share (2007) & Ter

Pop/Top 500 U (log)0.12 0.21

Spending and Quality (2)

Summary

• While quality of Ter Ed is and positively linked with economic level of countries, it is only moderately increasing with rising levels of public investment

• Quality of Ter Ed is negatively –albeit slightly --influenced by the presence of the private sector

2/1/2011 33

VI. Conclusion (1)

2/1/2011 34

VI. Conclusion (2): No extraordinary claims

Just paradoxes and inconclusiveness

• Paradox #1: As countries get richer, both quantity and quality of Ter Ed increase, but at the same time, public investment in Ter Ed tends to decrease

• Paradox #2: Higher levels of public spending have a (strong) negative impact on access but a (weak) positive impact on quality of Ter Ed

• Observation #1: The share Ter Ed in total Education Expenditures has a (slight) positive impact on both access and quality

• Observation #2: Neither quality nor quantity of Ter Ed is affected by the penetration of the private sector

2/1/2011 35

Conclusion (3):

• Back to the initial question: “Are countries investing sufficiently at the tertiary education level?”:

• The answer is that it is not possible to say “yes” or “no”

• The real questions are:

what exactly is invested ? and

Is the investment efficient and equitable ?

2/1/2011 36

Conclusion (4): Lessons

Acknowledgment: Simplistic statistical treatment

Still, results robust enough to suggest:– Money is not everything

– Multiple factors are at play

– Governance as important

– No single development path

– No benchmark

– Country context most important

2/1/2011 37

No reason to give up

No fatality

There is a multiplicity of models

Each country has its own path

2/1/2011 38

Last word

Thank YOU(still pondering?)

2/1/2011 39

Credits

1st cat: Qatar

2nd cat: France