Selecting a Presidential Candidate: Priority Issues of New ... · right direction today, or do you feel that things have seriously gotten off on the wrong track? (n=1,092) Wrong Track

Selecting a Presidential Candidate:Priority Issues of New Hampshire

Voters Age 50+

Published November 2003

Selecting a Presidential Candidate: Priority Issues of New Hampshire

Voters Age 50+

Report Prepared By: Christine Bechtel and William E. Wright, Ph.D.

Copyright © 2003 AARP

Knowledge Management 601 E Street NW

Washington, DC 20049 http://research.aarp.org

Reprinting with Permission

AARP is a nonprofit, nonpartisan membership organization dedicated to making life better for people 50 and over. We provide information and resources; engage in legislative, regulatory and legal advocacy; assist members in serving their communities; and offer a wide range of unique benefits, special products, and services for our members. These include AARP The Magazine, published bimonthly; AARP Bulletin, our monthly newspaper; Segunda Juventud, our quarterly newspaper in Spanish; NRTA Live & Learn, our quarterly newsletter for National Retired Teachers Association members; and our Web site, www.aarp.org. We have staffed offices in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. AARP is a non-partisan organization. It does not support any candidates for public office.

Acknowledgements

AARP staff from Grassroots and Elections, Knowledge Management and the New Hampshire State Office contributed to the design and implementation of this study. Special thanks go to AARP staff including Nancy George, Grassroots and Elections; Jamie Bulen, New Hampshire State Office; Curt Davies, Knowledge Management; Jeff Love, Knowledge Management; Gretchen Straw, Knowledge Management; and Kate Bridges, Knowledge Management. John Woelfel of Woelfel Research, Inc. ensured a timely and high quality survey. For more information, contact Christine Bechtel at (202) 434-6333 or William E. (Gene) Wright at (202) 434-6278.

AARP 2004 New Hampshire Primary Survey 1

Background

With the presidential primary season gearing up in New Hampshire, AARP polled 1,184 Granite State registered1 voters 50 and older, including 1,092 who are likely to vote in the New Hampshire presidential primary. Of these likely voters, 40% are registered Independents, 30% are registered Republicans, and 28% are registered Democrats. Because of the intense focus on the contested Democratic primary, the survey includes an additional 167 Democrats. The total sample has been weighted to reflect party identification of New Hampshire registered voters age 50+. All figures in this report are derived from this weighted data. The survey explored their opinions about whether they think the country is headed in the right or wrong direction, as well as the importance of several national issues in selecting a presidential candidate to vote for.2

Conclusions

New Hampshire’s likely voters 50 and older think the country is off track and are focused on domestic issues as they approach the 2004 presidential primary. Economic and health issues, including the affordability of healthcare and prescription drugs, are all very important to substantial majorities of New Hampshire voters. Pocketbook issues -- Social Security, affordable healthcare and the economy -- will be very influential as primary voters consider and select a presidential candidate.

Key Findings Survey findings indicate:

• These are politically active respondents: o More than 8 in 10 (85%) say they always vote in presidential

elections. o Nine in ten (91%) New Hampshire registered voters age 50 and

older say they are very (81%) or somewhat likely (10%) to vote in the presidential primary.

o Nearly half (47%) of Independents, along with nine in ten (94%) Democrats, are likely to vote in the Democratic primary. One- quarter (26%) of Independents say they are likely to vote in the Republican primary, while one quarter (27%) did not know.

1New Hampshire respondents were asked if they were registered to vote as part of the survey screening process. Individuals self-identified as registered voters at their present addresses. 2 AARP is a non-partisan organization. It does not support any candidates for public office.


• Nearly six in ten (59%) of New Hampshire’s likely primary voters say

that things in this country have seriously gotten off on the wrong track. Only three in ten (32%) say the country is headed in the right direction, and 9% did not know.

• The majority of New Hampshire’s likely voters who believe the country

has seriously gotten off on the wrong track are disproportionately more likely to be:

o Concerned with domestic issues (62%) over international security and foreign policy issues (21%)

o Lower-income, with household incomes under $20,000 (72%) o Democrats (84%) rather than Republicans (26%) o Middle of the road or liberal (69%) rather than conservative

(27%) • The majority of New Hampshire’s likely voters who believe the country

is generally going in the right direction are disproportionately more likely to be:

o Nearly as concerned with international security and foreign policy issues (40%) as with domestic issues (46%)

o Higher-income, with household incomes over $40,000 o Republicans (63%) rather than Democrats (11%) o Conservatives (67%) rather than middle of the road (25%) or

liberal (5%) • Twice as many of New Hampshire’s likely primary voters say domestic

issues (55%) are more important to them personally than international issues (27%).

• When it comes to issues considered very important in selecting a

presidential candidate, making sure Social Security is there for current and future generations (79%), making health care more affordable (79%), and strengthening the economy and creating jobs (79%) are in a statistical dead heat for the top slot, followed by making prescription drugs more affordable (71%), making sure everyone has healthcare coverage (68%), improving education (61%), strengthening and preserving traditional Medicare (59%), and expanding Medicare to cover prescription drugs (56%).

o There were significant differences by age in the order of issues

considered to be very important in candidate selection. Top issues among New Hampshire’s older voters (65+) included


Social Security (86%), making healthcare more affordable (81%) and strengthening the economy/creating jobs (79%), which is statistically as important as making prescription drugs more affordable (77%).

o The top issues among likely primary voters ages 50-64 more

closely mirrored their current life circumstances, pre-retirement: nearly 8 in 10 consider strengthening the economy and creating jobs (79%) to be very important, followed by making healthcare more affordable (77%), making sure Social Security is there for current and future generations (75%), and making prescription drugs more affordable (68%).

• Among likely Democratic primary voters, AARP’s priority election

issues topped the list of those considered to be very important in selecting a candidate: making healthcare more affordable (84%), making sure Social Security is there for future generations (84%) and making sure everyone has healthcare coverage (81%), which was tied with strengthening the economy and creating jobs (82%).

• New Hampshire likely primary voters were also asked to indicate what

single most important domestic issue facing the country today is most important to them personally. Pocket-book issues are the most important issues for these voters. Overall, the economy and jobs (31%), health care (28%), Social Security (14%) were the top three most personally important issues.

o Among likely Democratic primary voters, healthcare (33%) and

economy/jobs (31%) are tied for first as the single most personally important issue, followed by Social Security (12%).


Do you feel that things in this country are generally going in the right direction today, or do you feel that things have seriously

gotten off on the wrong track? (n=1,092)

Wrong Track 59%

Don't Know 9%

Right Direction

32%

Source: AARP. Selecting a Presidential Candidate: Priority Issues of New Hampshire Voters Age 50+, November 2003.


Domestic Issues Rated as Very Important In Selecting a Candidate

(n=1,092)

56%

59%

61%

68%

71%

79%

79%

79%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Medicare Coverage of Prescription Drugs

Strengthening & Preserving Medicare

Improving Education

Making Sure Everyone Has HealthcareCoverage

Making Rx More Affordable

Strengthening the economy/creating jobs

Making Healthcare More Affordable

Social Security

Very Important



Single Most Important Domestic Issue to New Hampshire Voters Personally

(n=1,092)

28%

14%

10%

31%

9%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Economy/Jobs

Healthcare

Social Security

Education

Medicare

Single Most Important Domestic Issue to NH Likely Democratic Primary Voters Personally

(n=596)

31%

12%

8%

33%

7%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Healthcare

Economy/Jobs

Social Security

Education

Medicare




Methodology

AARP commissioned Woelfel Research, Inc. a national survey research firm, to conduct a New Hampshire random digit dial (RDD) telephone survey of 1,184 registered voters who are age 50 and older, including 1,092 likely primary voters. Respondents were screened for age and for their likelihood of participating in the presidential primary. A total of interviews were completed between October 24 and November 10, 2003. The survey has a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for overall results. This means that in 95 out of 100 samples of this size, the results obtained in the sample would fall in a range of 3 percentage points of what would have been obtained if every New Hampshire likely primary voter age 50 or older had been surveyed. Responses to all survey questions are in the attached annotated questionnaire.


Annotated Questionnaire


AARP NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY SURVEY Sample N = 1,184 New Hampshire 50+ Registered Voters

(Sampling Error ± 3 percentage points) MAIN INTRODUCTION: Hello, my name is (FULL NAME). I am calling from WRI, a public opinion research firm. We are conducting a very brief opinion survey and we would very much like to include the opinions of someone in your household.

A. Are you 50 years of age or older?

1. Yes 100% 2. No (THANK AND TERMINATE) 3. Don’t know (THANK AND TERMINATE) 4. Refused (THANK AND TERMINATE)

B. Are you registered to vote at your present address?

1. Yes 100% 2. No (THANK AND TERMINATE) 3. Don’t know 4. Refused

(IF RESPONDENT IS NOT REGISTERED TO VOTE: “WE ARE INTERESTED IN SPEAKING WITH REGISTERED VOTERS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME.”

C. How likely are you to participate in the upcoming New Hampshire Presidential Primary? Would you say…?

1. Very likely 81% 2. Somewhat likely 10% 3. Not too likely, or (SKIP TO Q.E) 3% 4. Not at all likely (SKIP TO Q.E) 4% 5. (DO NOT READ) Don’t Know 1% 6. (DO NOT READ) Refused 0%

D. Which primary?

1. Democratic 47% 2. Republican 38%

Refused/ DK 16%


E. In the last few national elections, how often did you vote? Did you vote in…?

(READ LIST. ACCEPT ONE ONLY)

1. All of the last few national elections 85% 2. Most of them, 10% 3. Some of them, or 4% 4. None of them 1% 5. (DO NOT READ) Don’t Know 0% 6. (DO NOT READ) Refused 0%

MAIN QUESTIONNAIRE

1. Let’s begin by asking your opinion about how things are going in the country today. Do you feel that things in this country are generally going in the right direction today, or do you feel that things have seriously gotten off on the wrong track?

1. Right direction 32% 2. Wrong track 59% 3. (DO NOT READ) Don’t Know 9% 4. (DO NOT READ) Refused 1%

2. What is more important to you personally, international security and foreign policy issues, or domestic issues?

1. International Issues 27% 2. Domestic Issues 55% 3. (DO NOT READ) Don’t Know 17% 4. (DO NOT READ) Refused 1%

3. Of the following issues, what single domestic issue facing the country is most important to you personally?

1. Social Security 14% 2. Education 10% 3. Medicare 9% 4. Health Care 28% 5. The economy/jobs 31% 6. Other (SPECIFY) 7% 7. Don’t know/nothing (DO NOT READ) 2% 8. Refused (DO NOT READ) 1%


4. As I read a list of issues being discussed today, please tell me how important each of the

following issues is to how you will select a candidate in the upcoming Presidential Primary. Is (READ ITEM. ROTATE ITEMS) very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important to how you will select a candidate in the Presidential Primary?

a. Making sure Social Security is there for you and for future generations

1. Very important 79% 2. Somewhat important 16% 3. Not too important 3% 4. Not at all important 1% 5. (DO NOT READ) Don’t Know * 6. (DO NOT READ) Refused *

*=less than 0.5% b. Improving education

1. Very important 61% 2. Somewhat important 32% 3. Not too important 5% 4. Not at all important 2% 5. (DO NOT READ) Don’t Know 1% 6. (DO NOT READ) Refused *

c. Strengthening and preserving the traditional Medicare program


d. Expanding Medicare to cover prescription drugs



e. Making prescription drugs more affordable

1. Very important 71% 2. Somewhat important 22% 3. Not too important 5% 4. Not at all important 2% 5. (DO NOT READ) Don’t Know * 6. (DO NOT READ) Refused *

f. Making healthcare more affordable


g. Making sure everyone has healthcare coverage


h. Strengthening the economy and creating jobs

1. Very important 79% 2. Somewhat important 19% 3. Not too important 2% 4. Not at all important * 5. (DO NOT READ) Don’t Know * 6. (DO NOT READ) Refused *

(IF TWO OR MORE OF Q.4 ITEMS = “VERY IMPORTANT”, ASK Q.5. OTHERS SKIP

TO Demographics.)

5. You said that (READ ALL ISSUES RATED AS VERY IMPORTANT IN Q.4) are very important to how you will select a candidate in the Presidential Primary. Of these issues, which one issue will be the MOST IMPORTANT to how you will select a candidate?

(ACCEPT ONE ANSWER ONLY)

1. Making sure Social Security is there for you and for future generations 14% 2. Improving education 8% 3. Strengthening and preserving the traditional Medicare program 3% 4. Expanding Medicare to cover prescription drugs 5%


5. Making prescription drugs more affordable 3% 6. Making healthcare more affordable 12% 7. Making sure everyone has healthcare coverage 13% 8. Strengthening the economy and creating jobs 26% 9. (DO NOT READ) Don’t know/Unable to choose 17% 10. (DO NOT READ) Refused 1%

Demographics Now, I just have some questions for classification purposes only. Your individual responses will remain strictly confidential. Z-1. Are you: (READ LIST)

1. Single, that is never married 6% 2. Single, living with a partner 3% 3. Married 63% 4. Separated 1% 5. Widowed, or 17% 6. Divorced 10% 7. Refused 1%

Z-1a. What is your age as of your last birthday? {RECORD IN YEARS} Z-2. Currently, are you yourself employed full-time, part-time, or not at all?

1. Full-time (SKIP TO Q.Z-4) 39% 2. Part-time (SKIP TO Q.Z-4) 13% 3. Not employed 48% 4. Refused 1%

(ASK IF NOT EMPLOYED IN Q.Z-2) Z-3. Are you: (READ LIST)

1. Retired 39% 2. A homemaker 4% 3. A student, or * 4. Temporarily unemployed 2% 5. (DO NOT READ) Disabled/handicapped 3% 6. (DO NOT READ) Other (SPECIFY)______________1%___ 7. (DO NOT READ) Don't Know * 8. (DO NOT READ) Refused 1%

Z-4. What is the last grade of school you completed? (DO NOT READ LIST)

1. Less than high school graduate 3% 2. High school graduate 26% 3. Some college 20% 4. Graduated college 30%


5. Graduate school or more 18% 6. Technical school/Other 3% 7. Refused 1%

Z-5. Is your total annual household income from all sources, and before taxes: (READ LIST)

1. Less than $10,000 3% 2. $10,000 but less than $15,000 5% 3. $15,000 but less than $20,000 4% 4. $20,000 but less than $25,000 5% 5. $25,000 but less than $30,000 6% 6. $30,000 but less than $40,000 10% 7. $40,000 but less than $50,000 10% 8. $50,000 but less than $75,000, or 14% 9. $75,000 and over 20% 10. (DO NOT READ) Don't Know 4% 11. (DO NOT READ) Refused 19%

Z-6. Are you of Hispanic origin or background?

1. Yes (CONTINUE) 1% 2. No (SKIP TO Q.Z-7) 98% 3. Don't Know (SKIP TO Q.Z-7) 0% 4. Refused (SKIP TO Q.Z-7) 1%

Z-7. Would you consider yourself to be White, Black or of some other race? If "other" say: "I'm not referring to your nationality. I just want to know if you consider yourself white or black."

1. White 96% 2. Black * 3. Asian/Oriental/Chinese/Japanese * 4. Native American/American Indian 1% 5. Other (SPECIFY)________________ 2% 6. Refused 2%

Z-8. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as: If respondent gives answer such as: "conservative, liberal, vote for best man" Probe: Would that be Republican, Democrat, or independent?

1. A Republican 30% 2. A Democrat, or 28% 3. An independent 40% 4. (DO NOT READ) Other (SPECIFY) _____________1%______ 5. (DO NOT READ) Don't Know 1% 6. (DO NOT READ) Refused 1%


Z-9. Thinking politically and socially, how would you describe your own general outlook: very conservative, moderately conservative, middle-of-the-road, moderately liberal or very liberal?

1. Very conservative 12% 2. Moderately conservative 29% 3. Middle of the road 32% 4. Moderately liberal 17% 5. Very liberal 6% 6. (DO NOT READ) Don’t Know 2% 7. (DO NOT READ) Refused 2%

Z-10. What is your zip code? Sex of Respondent:(DO NOT ASK)

1. Male 47% 2. Female 53%

Z – 11. Are you or your spouse a member of A-A-R-P, formerly known as the American Association of Retired Persons?

1. Yes 54% 2. No 44% 3. Don’t know (DO NOT READ) 1% 4. Refused (DO NOT READ) 1%

THANK YOU VERY MUCH!

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Selecting a Presidential Candidate: Priority Issues of New ... · right direction today, or do you feel that things have seriously gotten off on the wrong track? (n=1,092) Wrong Track