SEEM Calibration: Phase IISingle Family Heating Energy

Regional Technical ForumSeptember 17, 2013

Presented By: Josh Rushton and Adam HadleySubcommittee Review: August 6, 2013 ***

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SEEM Calibration

Background: Phase I• Provided Calibrated T-stat

Settings for houses with known heating energy use– 30% of the 1404 RBSA homes were

used in calibration, the rest weren’t included because:• Incapable of running in SEEM

(foundation type, etc.)• Non-utility fuel use or equipment

(wood, oil, etc.)• Poor billing analysis results

– Note: Gas-heated homes were included in the calibration

• Approved May 2013 SF RBSA Pie: 1404 Homes

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552

Gas Heated, 249

Electric Heated, 180

In Utility Programs, but not in SEEM

calibration, 423

SEEM Calibration

Phase II• Purpose is to adjust for electric heating

energy in program-like homes.

• Adjustments need to address:– Non-utility heating sources;– Program-permitted gas heat sources (e.g., gas

fireplaces) – Other SEEM Calibration filters

• To capture effects on program-like homes, the present analysis is based on RBSA homes with: – At least one permanently-installed electric heat

source;– No gas, oil, etc. central heating systems (FAF or

Boiler);– Note that heat stoves and fireplaces (any fuel)

are allowed.

• Status Update presented at June 2013 Meeting– Finish analysis and send to subcommittee

Single-Family RBSA Pie: 1404 Homes

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Subcommittee Meeting

• August 6, 2013– Presentation– Minutes– Draft Report

• Summary– Baylon: Recommendations to adjust the regression specification

for non-utility fuels; test climate zone’s effect.– Discussion on how to properly interpret the regression results

to determine off-grid and gas fuel use for different electric heating systems.

– Note while subcommittee was well-attended, Baylon, Hadley, and Rushton did 99% of the talking.

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Recent Changes• Added another variable to account for differences

in off-grid heating fuel usage between heating zone 1 and heating zones 2 and 3. This change improved the regression.

• Added RBSA house weights; removed the “SEEM.data” variable (whose coefficient was marginal to begin with).

• Off-grid and Natural Gas use will be valued at the retail price of electricity.– This matches the RTF direction given for DHPs at the

August RTF meeting.

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Proposed Regression: Summary(Model fit to RBSA sites with permanently installed electric heating system and without non-electric central heating systems and with

Electric Heat > 0 kWh/yr)

ln (Heat ing   kWh )    =𝐶0+𝐶1× ln (UA×HDD )+𝐶2× ln (Sq . ft . )+𝐶3×IElec . FAF          

            +    𝐶 4×IHea t . pump   +         𝐶5×IOff .grid . high    +    𝐶6×IOff .Grid .Med . Z1

+  𝐶7×IGas . Heat .High     +  𝐶8×ISEEM .Bill        +𝜀¿ ¿

Variable Definition Coeff. Estimate Std. Error P-value

Intercept Intercept C0 0.068 1.03 0.947

Natural log of UA x HDD65 C1 0.329 0.09 0.000

Natural log of the area of conditioned floor space C2 0.575 0.10 0.000

Indicator: Has electric forced-air furnace C3 0.172 0.09 0.049

Indicator: Has heat pump C4 -0.415 0.08 0.000

Indicator: Non-utility fuel over 40,000 kBtu/yr C5 -0.625 0.13 0.000

Indicator: HZ1 and non-utility fuel between 5,000 and 40,000 kBtu/yr. C6 -0.217 0.08 0.010

Indicator: Gas heating energy over 5,000 kWh/yr C7 -1.039 0.11 0.000

Indicator: Failed SEEM Calibration billing analysis filter C8 -0.423 0.11 0.000

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Determining Adjustments (“Typical” Program Screen)

Off-Grid Fuel Adjustment

10.2%

CharacteristicCoeffi cient

Value

kWh change (affected

sites)

Percent affected

Net kWh Adjustment (additive)

Non-electric fuel off-set

for zero-kWh homes

Off-grid high -0.625 -46% 10% 4.2% 0.6%Off-grid med (Z1) -0.217 -20% 29% 5.2% 0.3%Gas heat high -1.039 -65% 7% 4.3% 0.2%SEEM bill filter -0.423 -35% 20% 6.3% N/AZero kWh N/A -100% 5% 5.3% N/A

Overall Adjustment Factor >>> 74.8%

4.4%

Total Heating kWh Adjustment

Coeffi cientCoeffi cient

Value

kWh change (affected

sites)

Percent of Population

Net kWh Adjustment (additive)

Non-electric fuel off-set,

zero-kWh

Off-grid high -0.625 -46% 25% 10.4% 0.7%Off-grid med (Z1) -0.217 -20% 0% 0.0% 0.0%Gas heat high -1.039 -65% 2% 0.9% 0.7%SEEM bill filter -0.423 -35% 21% 6.7% N/AZero kWh N/A -100% 10% 10.1% N/A

Overall Adjustment Factor >>> 71.9%

Off-Grid Fuel Adjustment

Natural Gas Adjustment

11.2%

1.6%

Total Heating kWh Adjustment

Zone 1

Zones 2 & 3

Natural Gas Adjustment

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Adjusted Heating kWh(Heating kWh aligned with RBSA electric usage data)

h𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔𝐾𝑊 𝐴𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑑=𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦𝑆𝐸𝐸𝑀×𝐴𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 h𝑘𝑊

Variable Definition Units

Annual electric heating energy consumption (fully calibrated to RBSA data). kWh/year

Estimate of annual heating energy consumption from calibrated SEEM run (using calibrated t-stat settings). kWh/year

Heating kWh adjustment from previous slide (with “typical” program screen, this is 74.8% for zone 1 and 71.9% for zones 2&3). %

Example (HZ1)

8000 kWh/yr

74.8%

5984 kWh/yr

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Estimating the Value of Off-Grid Fuel Usage𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑂𝑓𝑓𝐺𝑟𝑖𝑑𝐹𝑢𝑒𝑙=𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦𝑆𝐸𝐸𝑀× 𝐴𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑂𝑓𝑓𝐺𝑟𝑖𝑑𝐹𝑢𝑒𝑙×𝐹𝑢𝑒𝑙𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑂𝑓𝑓𝐺𝑟𝑖𝑑

Variable Definition Units

Value of annual off-grid fuel consumption. $/year

Estimate of annual heating energy consumption from calibrated SEEM run (using calibrated t-stat settings). kWh/year

Off-grid fuel use factor from slide 7 (for the “typical” program screen, this was 10.2% for heating zone 1; 11.2% for zones 2 & 3). %

Cost of off-grid fuel is difficult to determine. Instead, we’re setting the value equal to the retail cost of electricity (average for the 4 PNW states according to EIA).

$/kWh

Example (HZ1)

8000 kWh/year

10.2%

$0.089/kWh

$73/year

Note: The same methodology will be used to determine the value of Natural Gas Fuel Usage (Using the natural gas fuel use factor from the regression). While it would seem beneficial to convert the kWh savings to therm savings, and enter therm savings into ProCost, the truth is that we don’t know the exact mechanism for gas savings for any particular measure, so stating specific therm savings is unreliable.

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Putting it all Together: Example Measure

+This example applies to programs with “standard” eligibility criteria: requires some permanently-installed electric heating source and screens out houses with any non-electric central heating system.

Heating Zone

CaseHtg. Energy

SEEM (kWh)

Heating kWh Adjustment

Factor

Adjusted Annual

Heating kWh

Off-Grid Fuel Use

Factor

Annual Fuel Use

Value

Natural Gas Use Factor

Annual Fuel Use

Value

Baseline 8,000 74.8% 5,981 10.2% 72.79$ 4.4% $31.55Effi cient 6,500 74.8% 4,860 10.2% 59.15$ 4.4% $25.63Savings 1,500 74.8% 1,122 10.2% 13.65$ $5.92Baseline 8,000 71.9% 5,749 11.2% 79.64$ 1.6% $11.52Effi cient 6,500 71.9% 4,671 11.2% 64.71$ 1.6% $9.36Savings 1,500 71.9% 1,078 11.2% 14.93$ 0 $2.16

Electricity Off-Grid Natural Gas

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2 or 3

ProCost Entry: Electric Savings

ProCost Entry: Fuel Cost Savings(O&M)

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Program Screening OptionsPrinciples: Feasible for Programs and Auditable

• A: Off-grid Heating Equipment Screen– Houses do not have off-grid-fueled (wood, propane, pellets,

etc.) heating equipment • B: Gas Space Heating Equipment Screen

– Houses do not have natural gas space heating equipment.• C: Electric Heat Signature Screen

– House has an electric heat signature, verified through the RTF-approved screening tool or specification• Simple Calculator Inputs: 12 months billing history, maybe weather,

too.• Need to decide on calculation method. Options: PRISM-like, Winter

average > Summer average, Others?

• Any combination of the three (or none).

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Program Screen Screen Result Total Heating kWh Adjustment

Adjustment Due to Non-Electric Heat

Pass 82% 9%Fail 66% 21%Pass 76% 13%Fail 54% 42%Pass 79% 14%Fail 0% 19%

C: Electric Heating Use Signature

15%

A: No Off-Grid Heating Equipment

B: No Gas Space Heating Equipment

No Screen (Average case) 75%

Heating Zone 1

Adjustment Factors Under Alternative Program Screens

Heating Zone 1:All Program

Screen Combinations

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Program Screen Screen Result Total Heating kWh Adjustment

Adjustment Due to Non-Electric Heat

Pass 82% 9%Fail 66% 21%Pass 76% 13%Fail 54% 42%Pass 79% 14%Fail 0% 19%

P: A P: B 85% 6%P: A F: B 58% 38%F: A P: B 67% 20%F: A F: B 34% 63%P: A P: C 86% 9%P: A F: C 0% 10%F: A P: C 71% 21%F: A F: C 0% 26%P: B P: C 81% 12%P: B F: C 0% 19%F: B P: C 54% 42%F: B F: C 0% 42%

P: A P: B P: C 89% 5%P: A P: B F: C 0% 10%P: A F: B P: C 58% 38%P: A F: B F: C 0% 38%F: A P: B P: C 71% 20%F: A P: B F: C 0% 26%F: A F: B P: C 34% 63%F: A F: B F: C 0% 63%

A, B, & C

A & C

B & C

C: Electric Heating Use Signature

A & B

15%

A: No Off-Grid Heating Equipment

B: No Gas Space Heating Equipment

No Screen (Average case) 75%

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0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Pass Fail

Pass Fail

Pass Fail

P: A

P: B

P: A

F: B

F: A

P: B

F: A

F: B

P: A

P: C

P: A

F: C

F: A

P: C

F: A

F: C

P: B

P: C

P: B

F: C

F: B

P: C

F: B

F: C

P: A

P: B

P: C

P: A

P: B

F: C

P: A

F: B

P: C

P: A

F: B

F: C

F: A

P: B

P: C

F: A

P: B

F: C

F: A

F: B

P: C

F: A

F: B

F: C

Avg. A B C A & B A & C B & C A, B, & C

A: No Off-Grid Equipment B: No Gas Heating Equipment C: Has Electric Heating Signature

Heating Zone 1KW

h Ad

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t Fac

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Program Screen Combination

Zones 2 and 3:All Program

Screen Combinations

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Program Screen Screen Result Total Heating kWh Adjustment

Adjustment Due to Non-Electric Heat

Pass 82% 5%Fail 58% 24%Pass 72% 12%Fail 64% 26%Pass 80% 13%Fail 0% 14%

P: A P: B 83% 3%P: A F: B 68% 26%F: A P: B 58% 23%F: A F: B 40% 29%P: A P: C 92% 4%P: A F: C 0% 11%F: A P: C 64% 24%F: A F: C 0% 18%P: B P: C 80% 12%P: B F: C 0% 11%F: B P: C 73% 22%F: B F: C 0% 58%

P: A P: B P: C 93% 3%P: A P: B F: C 0% 6%P: A F: B P: C 80% 20%P: A F: B F: C 0% 58%F: A P: B P: C 64% 24%F: A P: B F: C 0% 18%F: A F: B P: C 40% 29%F: A F: B F: C 0% 58%

A, B, & C

A & C

B & C

C: Electric Heating Use Signature

A & B

13%

A: No Off-Grid Heating Equipment

B: No Gas Space Heating Equipment

No Screen (Average case) 72%

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0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Pass Fail

Pass Fail

Pass Fail

P: A

P: B

P: A

F: B

F: A

P: B

F: A

F: B

P: A

P: C

P: A

F: C

F: A

P: C

F: A

F: C

P: B

P: C

P: B

F: C

F: B

P: C

F: B

F: C

P: A

P: B

P: C

P: A

P: B

F: C

P: A

F: B

P: C

P: A

F: B

F: C

F: A

P: B

P: C

F: A

P: B

F: C

F: A

F: B

P: C

F: A

F: B

F: C

Avg. A B C A & B A & C B & C A, B, & C

A: No Off-Grid Equipment B: No Gas Heating Equipment C: Has Electric Heating Signature

Heating Zones 2 & 3KW

h Ad

just

men

t Fac

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Program Screen Combination

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Discussion

• Primary Decisions– Does the RTF approve the proposed methodology to determine

calibrated heating energy use and savings?– Does the RTF approve the proposed methodology to determine

benefits for off-grid and natural gas fuels?• Other Questions

– Should the RTF post the savings for all of the program options identified (A, B, C, and combinations, pass/fail)?• Count of Residential HVAC and Weatherization UES measures will be 27

times what it is today.

– Does the RTF want to use the regional-weighted average retail price of electricity as a proxy for the value of off-grid and natural gas fuels (for this specific situation)?

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Proposed Decision“I _______ move to adopt the Phase II SEEM Calibration for single family homes and use the methodology as proposed for determining • electric energy consumption,• off-grid fuel and natural gas fuel benefits. The RTF will• Use (Not use) the 8 program screening options to populate measure tables for

the 27 possible combinations of program screening options and pass/fail outcomes. (Instead, the RTF will use ______ .) AND

• Use (Not use) the regional-weighted average retail price of electricity as a proxy for the value of off-grid and natural gas fuels. (Instead, the RTF will use ______ .)”

Note: This analysis applies to all single-family SEEM-affected UES measures, except those with their own calibration data (i.e. DHP’s).