Consortium of Non-Traditional Security Studies in Asia

Nov – Dec 2008 No. 14

- Security Beyond Borders -

2nd NTS-Asia Annual Convention, Beijing 10 -11 November 2008

Conference Room, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Beijing, China

The 2nd Annual Convention was held in Beijing from 10 to 11 November 2008, and was jointly organised by the Institute of Asia Pacific Studies (IAPS) and Academic Division of International Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. In the welcome session of the Convention, Dr Zhang Yuyan, Director of IAPS, welcomed all to the Convention and noted the increasing dominance of NTS issues, such as those experienced by China in recent years. Dr Zhang commended the significant role played by the Chinese Academy of Social

Sciences, not only as a prime research institute in humanities and social sciences, but also as an important think tank or brain thrust of the Chinese government. Dr Zhang noted that among the eight institutes specializing in international studies in CASS, IAPS stands out as it is the only institute with has such a holistic field of studies. The opening remarks were delivered by Mr John Fitzgerald, Country Representative of the Ford Foundation, China. In his bilingual speech (English and Mandarin), Mr Fitzgerald commended the progress of NTS-Asia since its establishment in 2007. He also noted that the Ford Foundation is pleased to support the Consortium, which is under the leadership of RSIS, NTU.

In this edition: NTS-Asia Annual Convention in Beijing Call for Papers for Subregional Workshop

on Unhealthy Governance Seminar on Pandemic Preparedness in

Southeast Asia High Level Seminars on NTS at Zhejiang

University Upcoming events Recent Publications

Assoc Prof Mely Caballero-Anthony, Secretary-General of NTS-Asia, then proceeded to give a brief introduction of the Consortium’s background and objectives. She noted the adverse global consequences of the financial crisis in the US, whose ripple effects have threatened the stability and security of many countries worldwide. Despite this, she expressed optimism that the recent victory by

1Published and distributed by the NTS-Asia Secretariat, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, NTU, Singapore

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Barack Obama as the President of the United States signals a new dawn in the way the world’s superpower would manage its international security concerns, and thus inspires a time for change. It is therefore even more pertinent to increase the exchange of ideas on NTS challenges, not only within Asia, but also with Western epistemic communities and policymakers, and thereby be better able to formulate policies in meeting these emerging security challenges. The keynote address was delivered by Prof. Zhang Yunling, Director of CASS’ Academic Division of International Studies, who noted the increasing shift in China’s perspective on security, from traditional security to non-traditional security. This is evident given China’s experiences from a range of NTS issues, such as the 1997 financial crises and the SARS epidemic. These events highlight the element of shared responsibility, which in turn reflects a need for an international cooperation in addressing the issues. He also noted that China has made considerable progress in addressing NTS issues in many areas. The Wen Chuan earthquake is one such example which reflects the progress of the institutional building in developing emergency mechanisms for quick response, the shift in placing human security as China’s priority, the openness to international involvement and the increasing importance of media. Despite these progress, there are still challenges that need to be addressed. Firstly, there is a need to rethink of the model of “modernisation” by reviewing the Western industrialisation model, especially in light of the current financial crises. Secondly, there is a need to evaluate China’s new scientific development strategy. Thirdly, it is imperative to review the forms of cooperation needed. Prof. Zhang concluded his address by calling for decisive and future oriented actions. He also looked forward to two days of engaging and constructive deliberations during the conference. In addition to taking stock of the Consortium's activities for the year, members of the NTS-Asia Network discussed a range of timely NTS issues such as Food Security, Energy Security, Disaster Diplomacy and Transnational Crime. It was indeed a fruitful experience as questions and opinions raised were engaging, especially the perspectives of Chinese

scholars, which provided new insights into analysing the various nuances of NTS issues in the region.

Call for Papers for the NTS-Asia Sub-Regional Workshop on Unhealthy Governance: Security Challenges and Prospects in Asia

The Centre of Asian Studies (CAS), at the University of Hong Kong (HKU), in conjunction with the Department of Community Medicine (HKU) and the Southeast Asia Research Centre at the City University of Hong Kong is calling for paper proposals towards a workshop on the topic of Unhealthy Governance: Securitising Infectious Diseases in Asia, to be held in May 2009. This workshop is being funded by the Ford Foundation (Beijing) and the Strategic Research Theme: Law, Policy & Development (HKU). Asia is becoming an increasingly interconnected region. With this greater interconnectivity comes a compression of time and space that represents a fundamental challenge to those whose task is to respond to infectious disease outbreaks. Thus such policies and practices towards infectious disease outbreaks in the countries of the region as well as those followed by regional/international organisations and institutions are an important topic for study. It is the aim of this workshop to undertake a systemic review of threat-based responses to infectious diseases in Asia – both in terms of specific disease outbreaks as well as in terms of comparative responses between different disease outbreaks. These responses will be focused at the international, regional, state and sub-state levels. By analysing these responses through the combined lens of securitisation and governance it will be possible to understand the priorities of different actors, the threats posed by infectious diseases as well as the interplay of different actors during the securitisation process. From this understanding, the workshop will be able to evaluate how committed Asian states and the related regional/international organisations are to countering infectious diseases outbreaks as well as to what extent other variables – political, economic, social or legal – alter the securitisation of infectious diseases. We are now calling for paper abstracts for this workshop. Papers should be interdisciplinary in nature and could explore (but are not limited to): Theoretical and Historical Perspectives on Responses to Emerging Infectious Diseases Approaches by Asian states to Emerging Infectious Diseases Securitisation responses by sub-state (provincial, municipal, market, media and other civil society) actors Securitisation Responses in other regions or by other regional organisations (Africa/AU, South

America/Mercosur, South Asia/SAARC, APEC etc); Securitising Role of – and Responses By – International Organisations; and Cross-sectoral variables in the securitisation response (political, economic, social, environmental and legal). Successful applicants will be invited to participate in the workshop to be held in Hong Kong. Travel and accommodation expenses will be covered by the organisers. It is intended that the papers will be published either as a special issue of a major academic journal or as an edited volume and so will be expected to be original unpublished works, approximately 7,000 to 9,000 words in length. More information on the length and style will be provided to successful applicants. The co-organisers invite the submission of Abstracts on the above themes. Abstracts should be around 400 words. A one-page CV, including a list of recent relevant publications, should also be submitted at the same time. The closing date for abstracts is Friday 2 January 2009. E-mail applications are preferred. Please send paper abstracts and CV to: Centre of Asian Studies, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Rd, Hong Kong SAR E-mail: Ms Cathy Wong clywong@hku.hk

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For further information regarding the workshop please contact either Dr Nicholas Thomas, ndthomas@hku.hk or Professor Richard Fielding, fielding@hkusua.hku.hk

Seminar on "Pandemic Preparedness in Southeast Asia”

by Dr. Takeshi Kasai Regional Advisor for the World Health Organization's Western Pacific Regional (WPRO)

Date: 20 October 2008

Venue: RSIS Seminar Room 1 and 2 Time: 10.30am - 12.30pm

Emerging Infectious Diseases & the new International Health Regulations

The Threat Posed by EIDs Dr. Kasai outlined the ongoing threat posed by Infectious Diseases. He said that these diseases brought social systems to the breaking point in the past, and could do so again. He particularly emphasised the high lethality of novel pathogens such as SARS, Ebola, Nipah, Marburg and H5N1, which are lethal precisely because they are poorly understood as they emerge, leading to a failure of containment and treatment measures. Even while the death toll from these new pathogens is low when compared to more well-known ones such as Malaria and HIV/AIDS, the appearance of these new diseases has a high impact on health and social infrastructure because of the panic and fear they generate. In addition, new driving forces shape the spread and lethality of these diseases. Higher levels of urbanisation, the poor state of sanitation infrastructure in most parts of the world, the lengthening of food chains, improvements in population mobility, and increased human-animal contact in unsanitary conditions not only make diseases spread faster, but also evolve quicker.

The seminar on Pandemic Preparedness began with Dr. Takeshi Kasai of the WHO WPRO emphasising that pandemics are neither a new security threat nor a phenomenon that belongs to the past. As a representative of the WHO, he pointed out that it is impossible to accurately predict the actual effects and the size of pandemics. What is possible, however, is for the WHO to develop frameworks for preparing for and dealing with pandemics, and to enable the sharing of information. Dr. Kasai divided his presentation into three sections. The first section detailed the phenomenon of Emerging Infectious Diseases (EIDs) and the development of International Health Regulations to deal with the rapid demands of EIDs. His second section explained the current status of Avian Influenza and Pandemic (Bird-to-Human) Influenza and the seriousness of the threat. Finally, he discussed the Pandemic Preparedness Initiatives that the WHO was leading and the challenges and results of the plans so far.

Containment Measures The experience of SARS showed the WHO that there was a need for better coordination of information between itself and the various health ministries in the Western Pacific. During the crisis, despite the fact that the WHO had issued critical warnings against travel to Hong Kong and Guangzhou, there was no way to directly inform health ministries of the travel warning. Instead, the WHO had to post this information publicly on its website and let the media broadcast this information.

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Given this experience, the WHO instituted new International Health Regulations that were designed to help overcome these shortcomings. These new International Health Regulations (IHRs) define rights, obligations and permissions between the WHO and its member states and have binding powers to enforce their provisions. The new framework has also incorporated paradigm shifts that aim to make cooperation on pandemics more effective and more active. The first paradigm shifted containment measures from focusing on the control of borders to containing the pathogen at its source. The second paradigm expanded public attention from a dedicated list of disease threats to a broader list of public health threats. Finally, the third paradigm changed the focus on a preset list of measures to deal with outbreaks to a more flexible one allowing adapted responses. This paradigm shift was accompanied by an implementation plan, (known as the ‘Lighthouse Plan’) that will be active in the following areas: international travel, national surveillance and response, a WHO Global Alert and Response system, and Threat-specific control programmes. The IHRs, Dr. Kasai emphasised, aim to provide a public health response to the spread of disease internationally, but without interfering unnecessarily with trade, transport, and the domestic sphere of the state. The new IHR has combined features that help to operationalise responses to public health threats. A “National Focal Point” has now been designated by each member country to enable direct and continuous communication between the WHO and the national officials of the state. Guidelines have been established with clear criteria for risk assessment, and a secure website has been established to allow national stakeholders to share information and reports securely and confidentially. However, Dr. Kasai acknowledged that local risk assessment capacity in some countries may be limited by the lack of established communication procedures and manpower. Status of Avian & Pandemic Influenza Avian Influenza

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Dr. Kasai gave a brief history of avian influenza in the region and explained where outbreaks were likely to occur in the future. Avian influenza first appeared

in South Korea in 2003, and spread throughout Asia by 2004. Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia have reported the most cases in the region. A worrisome development is that wild birds have begun to die of avian influenza, even if these birds are normally more resistant to disease than domesticated birds. It also indicated that the virus could now travel outside Asia, by vectors that were largely uncontrollable (the migration of wild birds). Good husbandry practices could contain the virus on sight if detected early enough, but once the virus became entrenched, such as the case with Indonesia and Thailand, it becomes difficult to eradicate. Outbreaks of avian flu have recurred in these countries. Pandemic Influenza Since 2003, there have been over 15 countries globally that reported cases of H5N1 in humans, with a total of 387 cases as of 15 October 2008. Over 80 percent of the cases were in the region, with over eight countries reporting cases of Pandemic Influenza. However the species barrier between birds and humans is still high, as most cases of human transmission of H5N1 occurred as a result of extensive exposure, usually between members of the same family or community. The pattern of cases so far has shown that the primary source of outbreaks has moved from Vietnam to Indonesia. The mortality rate has also increased from 60 percent in Vietnam to 80 percent in Indonesia. However, the virus has a limited capacity to spread broadly as a result of the high mortality rate of its vectors. Most people infected by the virus die too quickly before they are able to spread the disease. The average time between onset and death is only 9 days, and most cases of H5N1 affect those between 0-29 years old, affecting men and women equally. The predominant cause of death listed is bacterial pneumonia. Dr. Kasai mentioned an interesting development in the way cluster cases were reported as well. Whereas before cluster cases were defined as human-to-human direct transmissions, they are now defined as cases of limited non-sustained person-to-person transmission. Essentially, the virus does not readily spread by human to human contact unless the vectors in question maintain constant contact and/or are genetically related. However, these kinds of infections are still rare. The primary cause of infections is still exposure to dead birds.

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H5N1 has already begun to evolve rapidly, with over four variations, called “clades” already detected. Clade 1 is specific to Korea, Japan and Vietnam. Clade 2.1 is endemic to Indonesia. Clades 2, 3 and 4 have spread widely throughout Central Asia and Europe. The effectiveness of antivirals is now in question as the virus evolves, along with the question of whether an antiviral will be effective across all clades. At present, H5N1 still has limited capacity for human to human transmission. It is entrenched in Asia, however, and cases of animal-to-human transmission do exist. A pandemic risk, therefore, remains. The estimated damage from an Influenza Pandemic is as high as US$800 billion a year, in contrast to SARS, which cost US$40 billion. The fact that over 96 percent of pandemic influenza cases are projected to occur in the developing world, which has inadequate resources to meet this kind of crisis, is also worrisome. Current situation of Pandemic Preparedness Initiatives Stages of Interventions Dr. Kasai introduced a formal model of modelling pandemic interventions, called “Stage-wise Intervention”. This model contains three stages. The first, Averting Avian influenza, is concerned with preventing animal outbreaks of influenza and the culling of infected stock. The second, Rapid Containment, involves the release of antiviral drugs and the implementation of quarantines and other social restrictions to prevent the spread of the disease. The last, Pandemic Response, requires multi-sectoral cooperation between national governments, local government units, NGOs and business in order to conduct pandemic response exercises. These exercises, in turn, help to ensure that a country is prepared to deal with an influenza pandemic. Dr. Kasai noted that most governments prepare for the first two stages, but do little for the last stage, where local government units assume most the burden. He decided to focus the rest of his discussion on the latter two stages. With regard to rapid containment, Dr. Kasai explained that the ASEAN regional stockpile of antivirals (Oseltamivir) has already been established in Singapore. The antivirals can be delivered to

neighbouring countries within 1-4 days. However, he pointed out that there were cases where rapid containment would either be unfeasible or impossible. These included situations where the virus was so highly transmissible that a large population would already have been infected by the time the plan was put into effect, or when a large segment of the population was already affected by the time an outbreak was detected (for example: cases of viral outbreaks in urban areas). In these cases, rings of vaccinations around a large infected area were recommended to provide a ‘barrier’ to prevent the disease from spreading further. Some good news was reported in the field of detection. While it took an average of 17 days from the case’s occurrence to when it was reported to the WHO, it now takes 11.3 days. This was credited to massive training programmes conducted for rapid response teams. Challenges for Pandemic Response The area of Pandemic Response was also examined under the frame of health infrastructure capacity-building. This field includes Risk Communication, Infection Control, Zoonoses, Surveillance and Response and Laboratory capabilities. Risk Communication is a crucial element in Pandemic Response, as a small window of opportunity of two to three weeks is all that is available for a government to detect and take action if it wants to contain an outbreak. Responsiveness and information dissemination to stakeholders is therefore crucial. Pandemic Responses, especially in the form of coordination between local and national health officials, the capacity of health professionals to efficiently diagnose and report pandemic cases, and the surge capacity of the local health care infrastructure were all listed as crucial by Dr. Kasai to ensuring that pandemic plans were implemented successfully. Another problem is the cost of pandemic response itself. The cost of antivirals alone for a lower middle-income country is estimated to take up 4.87 percent of its annual health expenditure. Improved exercises that examine the coordination between local and national governments and other actors also need to be undertaken. Dr. Kasai closed his lecture by pointing out what needed to be done in terms of research, exercises, planning, and core capacity development. More research in terms of the modelling of the spread and

severity of a pandemic in developing countries is necessary and urgent. The patterns of seasonal influenza burdens should also be given attention, as they may be a litmus test of public health infrastructure. Improvements of existing pandemic preparedness plans should also be undertaken in the region, in accordance with WHO guidelines and their new emphasis on a holistic pandemic response and mitigation strategy. Standard operating procedures should also be created and tested using exercises, to ensure than the plans are operationalised even at the ground level. Finally, he reminded the audience that readiness is a direct result of building core capacity in public health infrastructure.

Discussion During the Q&A session, several interesting questions and comments were raised. These included the pandemic preparedness coordination amongst various different UN agencies, APEC, and ASEAN; requirements for risk assessment at the local level; the status of antiviral vaccines in the Southeast Asian region, and striking a balance between building awareness of an imminent pandemic and creating widespread panic.

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Upcoming Events Launch of Report: Indian Youth in a Transforming World: Attitudes and Perceptions 22 December 2008, New Delhi The study was conducted in collaboration with Konrad Adenauer Stiftung. The report is divided into seven chapters such as Trust and Circles of Belonging, Family and Social Network, Leisure and Lifestyle, Politics and Democracy, Governance and Development, Nation and the World, and Anxiety and Aspiration. International Conference on Pandemic Preparedness (Closed Door) 12 - 13 January 2009 Marina Mandarin, Singapore Organised by: Centre for NTS Studies, RSIS, NTU Seminar on "Assorted Perspectives on Biosecurity" 14 January 2009, 2.30pm - 5pm, Seminar Rm 2 & 3, RSIS, NTU

Law In The Time of Anthrax: U.S. and Australian Perspectives Dr. Christian Enemark, Lecturer, Centre for International Security Studies at the University of Sydney, Director of the National Centre for Biosecurity

Multi Drug Resistant Tuberculosis and the Securitization of Illness: Australia and Papua New Guinea Dr. James Gillespie, Senior lecturer, School of Public Health, University of Sydney, and Deputy Director, Menzies Centre for Health Policy

Avian Influenza Risk: Animal And Human Dimensions Dr. Jenny-Ann Toribio, Senior Lecturer in Epidemiology, Faculty of Veterinary Science University of Sydney,

Synthetic Genomics: International Governance Of An Emerging Technology Mr.Jonathan Herington, Project Officer (Biosecurity), Centre for International Security Studies, University of Sydney.

Third Residential Training Workshop on Migration, Globalisation, Security and Development 8-15 March 2009 Godavari Village Resort, Kathmandu, Nepal Organised by: SAMReN Sub-Regional Workshop on Unhealthy Governance: Security Challenges and Prospects in Asia 21 - 22 May 2009 Organised by: Centre for Asian Studies, University of Hong Kong - in conjunction with the Department of Community Medicine (HKU) and the Southeast Asia Research Centre at the City University of Hong Kong

High-level seminars on Non-Traditional Security at Zhejiang University 22-23 November 2008

NTS-PD, Zhejiang University

On November 22-23, 2008, the Center for Non-Traditional Security & Peaceful Development Studies (NTS-PD) held a series of high-level non-traditional security seminars in Zhejiang University. Experts and scholars from more than twenty colleges, universities and institutes gathered and discussed a variety of themes, including “the characteristics and solutions to non-traditional security issues in China”, “paradigm, methods and means of non-traditional security theoretical research", “research on non-traditional security and public crisis management”, and “simulation theory and practice on non-traditional security”. Participants also raised their opinions and views on various non-traditional security problems and provided innovative, cross-disciplinary suggestions to facilitate a progressive strategy in dealing with the issues. Speakers at the seminars included Professor Wang Yizhou, Institute of World

Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Professor Jia Zhu Feng, Institute of International Relations, Peking University

Professor Yu Xiaofeng, NTS-PD, Zhejiang University

Professor Shi Yinhong, China Institute of International Relations, Renmin University

Professor Mi Hong, NTS-PD, Zhejiang University

The seminars were a success as they effectively provided a platform for scholars to further their exchange of ideas and networking to collaborate for future projects. Participants were pleased with the outcome of the seminars and looked forward to similar events in the near future.

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Seminar on ‘Cyber Security in East Asia: Policy Options’ Dr. Nicholas Thomas, Research Assistant Professor Centre of Asian Studies, University of Hong Kong

4 December 2008, 3pm- 4.30pm Conference Room 1, RSIS. NTU

Dr Nick Thomas began his presentation by noting that cyber security, though fascinating, is an understudied area of regional security relations. Since the 1990s, there has been increasing literature on the expanding notions of security – such as the UNDP’s 1994 report on New Dimensions of Human Security, and the Copenhagen School’s theory of securitization (since 1998), which highlights the military, environmental, economic, societal and political sectors of security. However, cyber security or cyber threats have been overlooked in this regard. Yet in the contemporary period the potential for the virtual realm of cyberspace to be used as a conduit to harm those in the real world is seen as one of the most serious threats to national stability and prosperity. In light of this, a need to reconcile old ways of considering security threats with the new realities is the key challenge facing policymakers. Appropriate policies for combating the myriad of cyber security problems are often lacking because securitising actors have yet to properly understand the environment in which they are now placed. Moreover, the boundaries of cyberspace are not conterminous with the boundaries of the real world – making the responsibilities for action and resolution difficult at best. The Situation in the East Asian Region Increasing in Cyber Threats The need to respond to this security challenge can be seen from the increasing exposure of East Asian networked users to cyber attacks. In Japan for instance, reports of cyber-crimes in 2005 increased 52 percent (to 3,161 reported incidences) from the previous year. A similar trend can be seen in South Korea where, in 2002, the number of internet-based criminal cases increased to 60,000 up from 121 in 1997. By 2006 it had increased to 70,545 instances, with identity fraud and hacking being the two most prevalent crime types. Although this jump was undoubtedly due, in part, to the effects of new

legislation it does reflect a genuine upwards trend in cyber crime reports; a trend that is evidenced in other regional countries as well as in extra-regional jurisdictions. Dr Thomas also noted that these statistics were nevertheless under reported due to the varying definitions of cybercrimes and also because of corporations’ preference not to disclose these statistics. In addition to the increasing number of cyber threats, the nature of the threats is also changing as cyber groups become more sophisticated in the structure of their attack vectors. These range from elaborate “phishing” scams, which use phone web sites to steal credit card numbers and perpetrate identity theft; fraudulent spam that launches viruses or spyware; and “malware” such as Trojans, which enable criminals to take remote control over thousands of computers for massive, distributed attacks. The latter has been particularly significant, given China’s growing online presence, as it now has the largest pool of users in the world. These will be issues of concern not only for China but also for other countries exposed to its web presence. Divides/Inequalities amongst States Dr Thomas also noted that economic and political divides amongst regional states would also have a

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direct impact on their respective computing capacities. States that are more developed economically and more open politically have a greater capacity to address cyber insecurities, than poorer and more repressive states. Moreover, the differences in Internet connectivity have a direct correlation with a state’s economic modernisation as well as with its integration with the global processes of development. These underlying factors and the resulting cyber presence in each of these countries, in turn, have a direct effect on the types of cyber security challenges they face. There are also cultural divides amongst states. A high level of economic development and a liberal-democratic political system do not automatically guarantee a shared set of norms and values with other similarly developed countries. Such is the case in Japan, where pornographic websites are not always seen as constituting a threat but other countries, whose citizens can access such materials might disagree. Moreover, a high level of economic and social development coupled with a high degree of Internet penetration does not guarantee a relaxed attitude towards internet access. In the case of Singapore, a socio-economically advanced state, access to most websites is allowed but some, domestically and internationally, are still denied. In light of this, while cyber security presents many new problems for regional law and order it would be wrong to consider these threats as completely new or requiring a completely new law enforcement approach. They rely very much on the real world contexts in which they are found but it is an interconnected world, one not bound by the rules of sovereignty and one for which non-interference is not an option if the sources and consequences of cyber threats are to be addressed. Regional Responses Dr Thomas noted that regional approaches to security threats are not new. Since the founding of the ASEAN Regional Forum in 1994, East Asian states and their extra-regional dialogue partners have discussed ways to alleviate regional insecurities. In the post 9/11 environment, other regional organizations – such as APEC – have also moved to include regional security issues on their policy agendas. In this sense, cyber security threats have

benefited from pre-existing as well as recently introduced regional security mechanisms. Thus, even as states seek to overcome shortfalls in cyber capacity, they are working within regional organizations such as the ASEAN-related institutions and APEC, to mitigate the challenges posed by cyber security threats. ASEAN & ASEAN Regional Forum Dr Thomas noted that ASEAN attempts to secure cyberspace have come in two forms. First, there has been a generalized attempt to improve regional capacity and resources through the e-ASEAN process (since 1999). Second, there has been a set of more explicit attempts to secure cyberspace from transnational subversion of national security; especially those stemming from the activities of criminal and terrorist organizations. There is also a subfocus on the cyber development aspect, which is considered critical – if only to help address what are seen as the root causes of crime and terrorism (that spill over into the regional cyberspace), namely poverty and underdevelopment. To a certain extent 9/11 provided a boost to efforts to securitize cyber security at the regional level. However, the efforts were largely political – with studies of regional countries legal systems, information exchanges, and attempts to develop extradition treaties among the main responses. Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) With regard to APEC, an institution with a far broader membership base, it has faced similar but different challenges in protecting its members against cyber threats. As an economically-focused institution APEC’s responses to cyber issues and threats have focused on issues such as e-commerce, identity theft, and related developments, before shifting in the late 1990s to focus on the criminal aspects of cyberspace (particularly information security), and then post 9/11 to focus on cyber terrorism. Further, there is a far greater digital divide between APEC members than between ASEAN members. Dr Thomas further noted that given APEC’s business focus, – far more so than ASEAN – it is proactive in engaging with the business sector and, more recently, civil society organizations, in ensuring that its activities have the widest possible input and support.

This was reflected in APEC’s collaborations with the OECD – such as its Malware workshop in April 2007 – and its joint APEC-ASEAN workshop on Network Security, which allowed both sets of participants to interact and share knowledge and practices. International Responses While these regional initiatives are commendable, the challenge in combating cyber insecurities lies not just at the regional level but also at the wider international level. Dr Thomas provided the example of the European Union (EU), which has developed one of the most comprehensive cyber security agreements of any transnational organisation. In the late 1990s the European Union began to formally consider the destabilising impact cyber threats could have on its member states, their markets and societies. The end result was a ‘legally binding instrument’ called the 2001 European Convention on Cyber-Crime (or the Budapest Convention). It is considered as a landmark treaty addressing cyber security matters at the domestic and regional level. Moreover, the inclusion of Canada, Japan, South Africa and the United States in the drafting process meant that the Convention has a reach beyond the boundaries of Europe. The key section of the Convention is the one which deals with harmonisation of legislation and the transnational reach of law and order officials in pursuing cyber crimes across borders. By mid 2004, the signatories to the Convention had expanded to 37 states. In terms of transnational cooperation, the Convention requires ratifying states to provide the broadest cooperation possible. In creating this binding instrument the CoE and the drafting partners all sought the inclusion of the private sector as well as civil society organizations. While several groups had reservations regarding privacy and individual freedom issues, the Convention’s rapid adoption – in a political region where civil rights are considered paramount – is also a signal of widespread acceptance. Moreover, it is increasingly becoming a global standard, both for cooperation as well as best practices. Thus, at the international level, the European Union provides an example of transnational policy responses that seek political solutions to the perceived security challenges.

Conclusion In concluding his presentation, Dr Thomas noted the need for states to consider what emphasis the policy focus should have – whether a regional or global approach would be more suitable to specific needs. The link between the domestic realm and the global arena is that of a vertical relationship, with the state choosing to participate in international organizations to further its own needs. However, the presence of states with various capacities in the international community makes it difficult to allow for a swift resolution of a particular problem. The rapidity of change in cyberspace – and the attendant emergence of web-based threats against states, markets, societies and individuals – requires prompt action by securitising actors if the essential medium through which most of the world’s population now communicates is to be preserved. What is needed is therefore a supporting horizontal structure where states at similar levels of development, with similar needs can work together in enhancing their cyber security. Dr Thomas noted that the creation of regional levels of governance has created a collaborative space whereby such horizontal activities can take place. As such, the challenge for a state in addressing cyber threats is two-fold. First, it must find and adopt an appropriate balance between regional and international approaches. Second, where the state is a member of a regional organisation, it needs to ensure that regional approaches and international norms do not diverge but instead develop in parallel. Thus, while issues of shared cultures, histories and geography may play a key role in further regional-level development of cyber security policies, the commonalities should never become the basis for differences within wider international efforts. Discussion During the discussion session, several questions and comments were made regarding issues related to the effectiveness of international cooperation in ensuring cyber security; who should bear the responsibility in addressing the problem, and the need to manage various norms and attitudes to ensure a concerted effort amongst global players.

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Other network members’ activities

State of Nation Survey (SONS)- Wave VI Follow-up Workshop from CSDS Summer

School August 2008

13 November 2008, New Delhi SONS Wave VI, August 2008 was conducted in 18

states of India. Being an urban survey, the selection of the states was done on the basis of states having more than one percent of urban population out of the total urban population of the country. The cities and towns were selected on the basis of class criteria as used by the census of India 2001 and were sampled in proportion to it. The sample for survey was around 4000 .The focus of this round of survey was on Indian Family and the themes were: conditions of senior citizens, status of family and money, attitude of parenting, perception of marriage and its morals and generation gap.

On 13 November 2008, Lokniti organised a one day Workshop as a follow-up of 2008 Summer School, Shimla. In the workshop, seven summer school participants presented their papers that were developed during Summer School -2008. Religiousity and Social Conservatism in India: Is

there a Causal Relationship? - Banasmita Bora Civil Society Association and Political

Participation: An Empirical Investigation in India - Ambuja Kumar Tripathy

Electoral Politics and Security: the Verdict - Elizabeth Devi Project on Index of Democratic Governance

in India ‘Voters’ satisfaction and Incumbent Party: A Puzzle in Election Studies - Rahul Verma 14 November 2008, New Delhi

Interest in Politics: An Analysis Kshetri Rajiv Singh A meeting of Lokniti members was held on 14

November 2008 to discuss the progress of the project on Index of Democratic Governance in India. Members who attended the meeting were Yogendra Yadav-Co Director Lokniti, Suhas Palshikar- Co Director Lokniti, Sandeep Shastri- National Convenor Lokniti, K.C. Suri- Lokniti Network member, Sanjay

Relevance of Caste on Political Choice of Women - Dr. Sudhir Kumar

Who is Unopinated? Analysis of ‘No Opinion’ Response in NES 2004 - Kailash K.K.

Professor Pradeep Chhibber, University of California,

Kumar- Deputy Director Lokniti, Pradeep Chhibber, University of California, Berkeley, Irfan Nooruddin, Ohio State University, Sanjay Lodha- Rajasthan State Co-ordinator of Lokniti, Kailash K.K. Punjab University and Pavithra Suryanarayan of Lokniti.

Berkeley and Irfan Nooruddin, Ohio State University who had trained the participants on data analysis during the summer school also made their presence during the presentation. There was an open discussion among the participants on each paper. Professor Chhibber and Nurooddin also gave valuable suggestion for improving the papers. All the participants are expected to submit revised papers for publication.

In the meeting, possibilities of taking up the project were discussed by analysing the findings of the pilot survey conducted prior to the meeting. The meeting discussed the strategy for generating the possible resources to carry forward the project as well as the scope to be incorporated in the project.

The meeting concluded with a substantial discussion on the research methods to be designed for the project. Lokniti is preparing to conduct a national survey in all of the Indian states by the end of December 2008.

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Recent Publications Transnational Trends: Middle Eastern and Asian Views Edited by Amit Pandya and Ellen Laipson, 2007, The Henry L. Stimson Center, Washington D.C. Contents Preface

Ellen Laipson

Ch 1. Perspectives from the Regions

Amit A. Pandya

MIDDLE EAST Ch 2. Science, Technology and Transnational Security in the Middle East

Hayfaa Almudhaf

Ch 3. Apples and Oranges: Identity, Ideology and State in the Arab World

Rami G. Khouri

Ch 4. Demography in the Middle East: Implications and Opportunities

Paul D. Dyer

SOUTH ASIA Ch 5. Indian Muslims: Political Leadership and Ideology

Irfan Engineer

Ch 6. Insurgency, Terrorism and Transnational Crime in South Asia

V. Balachandran

SOUTHEAST ASIA

Ch 7. Nontraditional Security, Regionalism and the State in Southeast Asia

Mely Caballero-Anthony

Ch 8. Transboundary Environmental Governance in Southeast Asia

P. Contreras Antonio

Ch 9. Fisheries in Southeast Asia: Challenges and Opportunities Len R. Garces with Michael D. Pido and Robert S. Pomeroy

Ch 10. Building Capacity to Mainstream HIV/AIDS Management: Engaging the Private Sector

Anthony Pramualratana with Karabi Baruah

INTERPRETING THE TRENDS Ch 11. Transformation or Transition: The Pace and Nature of Change in the Arab Gulf

Ellen Laipson and Emile El-Hokayem

Ch 12. Water Management and Conflict: The Case of the Middle East

Kendra Patterson

Ch 13. The Security Dimension of Transboundary Natural Resources Management in Southeast Asia

Richard Cronin

Ch 14. Disease Respects No Borders: Governance, the State, and Regional Health Security

Julie Fischer

Ch 15. The Shape of Change: Nature, Economics, Politics and Ideology Amit A. Pandya Online chapters available from: http://www.stimson.org/rv/?SN=RV200805091545

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Rise of the Plebeians? The Changing Face of Indian Legislative Assemblies edited by Christophe Jaffrelot and Sanjay Kumar, 2008, Routledge The book is a part of the series on “Exploring the Political in South Asia” edited by Mukulika Banerjee of University College, London. It is published by Routledge in association with Centre de Science Humaines, New Delhi, CERI & CNRS, Paris and CSDS, Delhi. The book has seven parts on the themes such as the Hindi Belt towards Social Engineering, the Northeastern Pattern, the Reign of Dominant Castes in the Deccan, Tribal States, Where the Upper Castes Resist, the Domain of Proportionality and the Tamil Exception: the Subalternist Tradition. The book examines how India’s caste based social diversity gets translated into politics, by tracking the individual trajectory of sixteen states since the 1950 to the present times. Tracing the changing social profile of the elected representatives of the Indian states, the book also points to an uneven democratisation of the regional political class. The Way Forward for Energy Security Mely Caballero Anthony, Centre for NTS Studies Policy Brief, December 2008 Water Security: Issues in the Greater Mekong Subregion Pau Khan Khup Hangzo, NTS Insight, December 2008 A Tale of Two Crises NTS Alert, November 2008/2 Food Security In Southeast Asia: Food Stocks in Peril NTS Alert, November 2008/1 ASEAN members should stop deceiving themselves Rizal Sukma, Deputy Executive Director, CSIS Jakarta, Published in The Jakarta Post, November 24, 2008 Are Islamic political parties in decline? Sunny Tanuwidjaja, Researcher, CSIS Jakarta, Published in The Jakarta Post, October 24, 2008

SEASON’S GREETINGS! We wish you all a wonderful year ahead

NTS Asia Secretariat Editorial Team Secretary- General Mely Caballero- Anthony

Mely Caballero Anthony

Research Analyst / Webmaster Sofiah Jamil

Associate Research Fellow

Irene Kuntjoro

Sofiah Jamil Irene Kuntjoro

www.rsis-ntsasia.org

webmaster@rsis-ntsasia.org

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