Securing our energy needs in a carbon-constrained society ...CO. 2. limitation and renewables deployment pose challenges. o. Technical, markets, policies. o. Models help to address

Securing our energy needs in a carbon-constrained society

Inaugural lecture – Erik Delarue

• Some contexto Basic principles on the electricity sectoro European policies on CO2 and renewables

• Challenge and model development

• Modeling exampleso Renewables infeedo CO2 cap through EU ETS

Content

• Electric powero Travels instantaneouslyo Is difficult to store

→ Supply and demand must be continuously in instantaneous balance

Time [h]

Dem

and

[MW

]

Electricity sector

• Electricity generation system is mix of o Dispatchable units

• Fossil fired power plants: coal, lignite, natural gas, oil• Nucleair power plants• Biomass power plants• Hydro (if dam)

o Non or limitedly dispatchable units• Wind• Solar PV

o Storage (limited)• Pumped hydro storage

Electricity sector

• Generation schedule Belgium, Weekday, Feb 2015

Electricity sector

• EU 20-20-20 targets by 2020

-20% -20%100%

+20%

8,5%

Reduction of greenhouse gases

Energy consumption, Efficiency increase

Share of renewable energy

EU energy and climate policy

EU energy and climate policyEU ETS

• As of January 1st 2005, EU has started EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS)

• Covers about 50% of Europe’s CO2 emissions

o Electricity sector

o Energy intensive industrial sectors

o Aviation (from 2012, within ETS countries)

• One EU-wide system

o For companies, with installations


• For each ton of CO2 emission, allowance must be submitted

o Can be traded on a market

o Trading between companies

• So-called “Cap and Trade” system: Amounts emitted limited but price varies

• Cap decreases each year to reach 2020 target


MAC

[€/ton]

Reduction[ton]

Player A Player B

Reduction[ton]

MAC

[€/ton]


EU energy and climate policyRenewables

• 20% target for the overall share of energy from renewable sources

• EU target Member State targetso Based on flat amount of 5.5%, and amount ~ GDP of

Member State• Not potential related!• Belgium: 13%

o Options in transport and heating & cooling limited• EU 20% 33% renewable electric energy • BE 13% 21% renewable electric energy

o No uniform EU-wide approach

-20% GHG

-23% GHG

20% RES

14% RES

2020 targets

Status

2030 targets

-80% to -95% GHG

2050 objective

+20% EE

?

-40% GHG

27% RES

+27% EE

EU energy and climate policy

Challenge, given these conditions:Ensure reliable, clean and efficient electricitygeneration system operation

Develop and use dedicated computer modelso To identify optimal solutionso To address market designo To assess and evaluate policies

• Relevant stakeholders: o Market participants, System operators, Regulators,

Policy makers

Challenge and model development

Time ahead

seconds 15’ hours days weeks years decades

Unit commitment

Dispatch

Control

Hydro & maintenance scheduling

Expansion planningOverall system planning

Leve

l of t

echn

ical

det

ail

Leve

l of u

ncer

tain

ty

Focus areas

Scenario analysis


• Formulation of optimization problem

o Mixed Integer Linear Programming

• Large-scale model set up

• Tight and compact formulation

• “Flexible” model

• Can be solved on cluster (HPC)

Computation time is important factor


• Optimal scheduling - Unit Commitment


• Some modeling examples related to

o Renewables infeed

o CO2 cap through EU ETS

Modeling examples

Intermittent RES

• Variable

• Limitedly predictable

• Zero/low marginal cost

• Location constrained

• Modular

• Non-synchronous

Flexibility means

• Flexible generation

• Active demand response

• Grids

• Storage

• Curtailment

Modeling examplesRenewables infeed

• Example wind power


• Example solar PV



Modeling examplesRenewables infeed: Flexible generation

Modeling examplesCO2 cap through EU ETS

Primary policy effect Policy interaction (subject of the presentation)

Power sector

Other ETS sectors

EU ETS

Renewables support schemes

CO2 cap and price

CO2-free generation

Change in CO2 price

Displacement of CO2 emissions


• Construction of emission planeo Central-West European region


• CO2 limitation and renewables deployment pose challenges

o Technical, markets, policies

o Models help to address these

• Future focus

o State-of-the-art models, accounting for uncertainty

o Improve thermo-mechanical link and include new technologies

o Storage and other energy carriers

o Policies and markets

Highly interdisciplinary research

Concluding remarks and future focus

KU Leuven Energy Institute

Building PhysicsFaculty of Engineering

Environmental and Energy Law

Faculty of Law

Energy, Transport and Environmental economicsFaculty of Business and Economics

Electrical EngineeringFaculty of Engineering

Mechanical EngineeringFaculty of Engineering

Involved in the KU Leuven Energy Institute

Research institute on sustainable energy and intelligent energy systems, uniting

KU Leuven, VITO and imec.

Focus on five themes

• Strategy & Markets

• Energy Networks

• Buildings & Neighborhoods

• Energy Storage

• Materials & Components

Involved in EnergyVille

Located at the former mine site of Waterschei in Genk

New building, space for about 200 researchers

Involved in EnergyVille

Documents

Securing our energy needs in a carbon-constrained society ...CO. 2. limitation and renewables deployment pose challenges. o. Technical, markets, policies. o. Models help to address