Section 5: Adaptation to global environmental changeEGS 3021F: Vulnerability to Environmental Change Gina Ziervogel (gina@csag.uct.ac.za)December 2011

This work by Gina Ziervogel is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.

The Good News: we can prepare!

Adaptation Responding to climate change impacts is

possible Humans can respond in anticipation Natural system can only adapt in response to

change

Mitigation Decreasing emissions

Protocols for decreasing emissions are in place More efficient energy use is possible

Supporting adaptation

Adaptation is understood to be an adjustment in the ecological, social or economic systems in response to observed or expected changes and their effects and impacts in order to alleviate adverse impacts or take advantage of new opportunities

(Adger et al, 2005)

Responding to climate changeAdaptation is a process of

deliberate change in anticipation of or in reaction to external stimuli and stress

(Nelson et al, 2007)

Vulnerability underpins adaptation

Definition of vulnerability in the climate change context The degree to which a system is

susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.(www.ipcc.ch/pub/syrgloss.pdf )

Opportunities /challenges Vulnerability enables a focus on agency

and how people are not passive recipients of climate change People have caused it People can reduce exposure to it People can respond to the impacts

Many climate change vulnerability studies focus on the risk and not the internal capacity component of vulnerability

Vulnerability and climate change about equity…linking climate change

to uneven development concerns people…begin with the

humanitarian concerns for vulnerable socio-economic groups

an integrating method…for targeting adaptation

International action needs to be developed in ways that support adaptive capacity and resilience of vulnerable communities

(“Unjust Water” by Action Aid. Access paper at

http://www.actionaid.org.uk/doc_lib/unjust_waters.pdf )

By Sean Wilson for SEI

By Sean Wilson for SEI

Determinants of Adaptive Capacity

(Eakin and Lemos,

2006:10)

Why understand vulnerability?

By understanding vulnerability to climate change it is possible to identify priority areas for adaptation

Adaptation can then focus on Reducing exposure to the hazards Decreasing sensitivity to the hazard Increasing adaptive capacity to respond

to the hazard

Adaptation includes• Measures directly addressing climate change risks • creating a new buffer zone in an area of increasing flood

risk

• Measures addressing underlying causes of vulnerability • addressing barriers to accessing new farming

technologies such as drought resistant seeds

• Measures building adaptive capacity• strengthening the reliability of channels for sending

remittances (Eriksen et al, 2008)

Priorities for adaptationMean Trends Extremes Complex

Events

ProjectionPlan adaptation strategies and

measures:Coastal retreat

Boundeddivergence

Implementadaptationmeasures:

Water efficiency

Risk

Reducevulnerability:

Flood plainrestrictions

Reduce vulnerability, monitor,prepare:

Drought preparedness

SurpriseWorst case scenariosAdaptation failure?

Emergency preparedness

Although there may be physical drivers, adaptation is based on people and institutions

Aim of adaptation is to decrease vulnerability to climate change Should support the goals of those most

vulnerable Development is about social change and

capacity to implement change

Combining physical and social sciences

Integrating adaptation and development

More than just consideration of climate in development planning

Link to the climate science Historical trends Future scenarios

Cross-sectoral approach

Address longer time horizons As opposed to short policy horizons Environmental/social sustainability vs profit

Include bottom-up and top-down approaches Include information from those impacted About policy as well as practice

Whilst supporting short term poverty and development agendas Maintain support Urgent needs

Integrating adaptation and development…cont

Focus on opportunities to bring different stakeholders together

Recognise multiple goals Identify key climate variables, thresholds &

uncertainties Link to development priorities Identify institutional challenges

Developing adaptation options

By Gina Ziervogel

Anticipatory: takes place before impacts of climate change

Reactive: takes place after impacts of climate change are observed

Autonomous: response due to change in environment or market, rather than conscious response to climate change

Planned: as a result of deliberate decision (may be prompted by policy)

Private: by individuals, households and businesses

Public: initiated by government at all levels

Types of Adaptation

(www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/pdf/wg2TARchap18.pdf)

Some adaptation is contextual and local

One group of farmers needs drought-resistant seeds; Another improved water saving techniquesAnother, improved access to markets[Anticipatory or reactive; private]

Context specific

Characteristics of adaptation

By Gina Ziervogel

Some adaptation has no benefits, or costs exceed benefits

Increasing the design standard of a road surface to copewith increased rainfall intensity only has benefits if thatroad experiences a storm of such magnitude(meanwhile the costs are incurred at present)[Anticipatory; public]

Costs exceed benefits

By Gina Ziervogel By Gina Ziervogel

Some adaptation has immediate costs and delayed benefits

Building a reservoir with added capacity to cope withincreased flood volumes that are not expected for30-50 years in the future[Anticipatory; public]

Delayed benefits

By Gina Ziervogel

References

Adger, N.W., Arnell, N.W. and Tompkins, E.L. 2005. Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Global Environmental Change, 15: 77-86

Eakin, H. and Lemos, M.C. 2006.Adaptation and the state: Latin America and the challenge of capacity-building under globalization. Global Environmental Change 16(1): 7–18

Eriksen, S., O’Brien, K. and Rosentrater, L. 2008. Climate Change in Eastern and Southern Africa: Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation. The International Project Office of the Global Environmental Change and Human Security( GECHS) Report 2008:2. Can be accessed at www.gechs.org/publications/reports/

Nelson, D.R., Adger, N.W. and Brown, K. 2007. Adaptation to Environmental Change: Contributions of a Resilience Framework. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Vol. 32.

All web links were checked in November 2011

Acknowledgements

Some slide material from Tom Downing, Stockholm Environment Institute and GCAP