Second Quarter 2018 Social Weather Survey Special Report ... - SWR 2018-II... · Intro : Ang Mutual Defense Treaty sa pagitan ng Pilipinas at Estados Unidos ay pinirmahan noong Agosto

2nd Quarter 2018 Social Weather Survey

SWS SPECIAL REPORT

12 December 2018, page 1 of 12

52 Malingap St., Sikatuna Village, Quezon City

Website: www.sws.org.ph

Tel: 924-4456, 924-4465

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pr20181212 - SWR 2018-II Mutual Defense Treaty (special report).docx

Second Quarter 2018 Social Weather Survey Special Report:

61% of Pinoys believe in the U.S. defense commitment

47% are aware of the PH-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty

Belief in the U.S. defense commitment is stronger among those

previously aware of the PH-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty

Higher awareness of the PH-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty among

those aware of the PH-China dispute in the West Philippine Sea

Belief in the U.S. defense commitment is stronger among those

aware of the PH-China dispute in the West Philippine Sea

Social Weather Stations

In advance of the 67th year of the Mutual Defense Treaty between the Republic of the

Philippines and the United States of America in August 2018, the Second Quarter 2018 Social

Weather Survey found that 61% of adult Filipinos believe (strongly plus somewhat believe) the

U.S. will defend the Philippines in case of an invasion by another country.

The survey, conducted from June 27-30, 2018, asked, “How much do you believe or not

believe that the United States will defend the Philippines in case we are invaded by another

country? [Gaano po kayo naniniwala o hindi naniniwala na ipagtatanggol ng Estados Unidos ang

Pilipinas kapag sinalakay tayo ng ibang bansa?]”

To this, 61% said they believe the U.S. will defend the Philippines (31% strongly believe,

30% somewhat believe), 9% said they did not (6% somewhat not believe, 3% strongly not believe),

and 30% were undecided [Chart 1].

The June 2018 survey also found that 47% were aware of the PH-US Mutual Defense

Treaty even before the survey, while 53% learned about it only during the interview [Chart 2].

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SWS SPECIAL REPORT



Belief in the U.S. defense commitment is stronger among those previously aware of the

PH-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty

Among those aware of the PH-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty even before the survey, 80%

believe (48% strongly believe, 32% somewhat believe) that the U.S. will defend the Philippines in

case of an invasion [Chart 3].

This is almost twice the 45% who believe (17% strongly believe, 28% somewhat believe)

in the U.S. defense commitment among those who became aware of the PH-U.S. Mutual Defense

Treaty on account of the survey.

Awareness of the PH-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty is highest in Metro Manila, urban areas,

among the upper classes, and among the more educated groups

The proportion of those previously aware of the PH-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty was

highest in Metro Manila at 58%, followed by Balance Luzon at 53%, Visayas at 41%, and

Mindanao at 31% [Chart 4].

It was 55% in overall urban areas, compared to 38% in overall rural areas.

By class, it was highest in class ABC at 51%, followed by class D at 49%, and class E at

34% [Chart 5].

It was highest among college graduates at 67%, followed by high school graduates at 51%,

elementary graduates at 42%, and non-elementary graduates at 27% [Chart 6].

Belief in the U.S. defense commitment strongest in Balance Luzon and urban areas

The proportion of those who believe that the U.S. will defend the Philippines in case of

invasion by another country was highest in Balance Luzon at 70%, followed by Metro Manila at

64%, Visayas at 54%, and Mindanao at 48% [Chart 7].

It was higher in overall urban areas at 66%, compared to overall rural areas at 56%.

It hardly varied by class, ranging from 60% to 65% [Chart 8].

It was slightly higher among elementary graduates and above, ranging from 61% to 69%,

compared to non-elementary graduates at 53% [Chart 9].


SWS SPECIAL REPORT



Higher awareness of the PH-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty among those previously aware of

the PH-China dispute in the West Philippine Sea

The proportion of those who know about the PH-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty even before

the survey was higher among those who were previously aware of the PH-China dispute in the

West Philippine Sea, at 54%, compared to those who learned about the PH-China dispute only

during the interview, at 14% [Chart 10].

The survey also found that previous awareness about the PH-US Mutual Defense Treaty

was highest among those with extensive knowledge about the PH-China dispute in the West

Philippine Sea (73%), followed by those with adequate knowledge (57%), those with only a little

knowledge (49%), and those with very little knowledge (36%) [Chart 11].

Belief in the U.S. defense commitment is stronger among those previously aware of the

PH-China dispute in the West Philippine Sea

The proportion of those who believe that the U.S. will defend the Philippines in case of an

invasion by another country was higher among those previously aware of the PH-China dispute in

the West Philippine Sea, at 67% (35% strongly believe, 32% somewhat believe), compared to those

who became aware of the PH-China dispute only during the survey, at 36% (15% strongly believe,

21% somewhat believe) [Chart 12].

Belief in the U.S. defense commitment was higher among those with extensive knowledge

about the PH-China dispute in the West Philippine Sea (82%), compared to those with adequate

knowledge (40%), only a little knowledge (49%), and very little knowledge (36%) [Chart 13].

Survey background

The June 2018 Social Weather Survey was conducted from June 27-30, 2018 using face-

to-face interviews of 1,200 adults (18 years old and above) nationwide: 300 each in Metro Manila,

Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages,

and ±6% each for Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao).


SWS SPECIAL REPORT



The area estimates were weighted by Philippine Statistics Authority medium-population

projections for 2018 to obtain the national estimates.

The Social Weather Survey items on people’s opinion about the PH-US Mutual Defense

Treaty were non-commissioned. They were included on SWS's own initiative and released as a

public service.

Questionnaire

The exact survey questions are as follows:

STATEMENT CARD: Ang Mutual Defense Treaty sa pagitan ng Pilipinas at Estados Unidos ay

pinirmahan noong Agosto 30, 1951, sa Washington, D.C. ng mga kinatawan ng Pilipinas at

Estados Unidos. Sinasabi ng pangkalahatang kasunduan na ipagtatanggol ng Estados Unidos ang

Pilipinas kapag ito ay sinalakay ng ibang bansa, at ipagtatanggol din ng Pilipinas ang Estados

Unidos kapag ito ay sinalakay. [The Mutual Defense Treaty between the Philippines and the

United States of America was signed on August 30, 1951, in Washington, D.C. by representatives

of the Philippines and the United States. The overall treaty stated that the United States will defend

the Philippines if it is invaded by another country, and the Philippines will also defend the United

States if it is invaded.]

Q130. Dati na po ba ninyong alam ang kasunduang ito sa pagitan ng Pilipinas at Estados

Unidos, o ngayon lamang ninyo ito narinig? (Dati nang alam; Ngayon lamang narinig) [Were

you previously aware about this treaty between the Philippines and the United States of America,

or did you know about this only now? (Previously aware; Heard about it only now)]

Q131. Gaano po kayo Naniniwala o Hindi naniniwala na ipagtatanggol ng Estados Unidos

ang Pilipinas kapag sinalakay tayo ng ibang bansa? Masasabi po ba ninyo na kayo ay…

(Showcard: Lubos na naniniwala; Medyo naniniwala; Hindi tiyak kung naniniwala o hindi;

Medyo hindi naniniwala; Lubos na hindi naniniwala)? [How much do you believe or not believe

that the United States will defend the Philippines in case we are invaded by another country?

Would you say that you… (Showcard: Strongly believe; Somewhat believe; Undecided if believe

or not; Somewhat not believe; Strongly not believe)?]


SWS SPECIAL REPORT



SWS employs its own staff for questionnaire design, sampling, fieldwork, data-processing,

and analysis, and does not outsource any of its survey operations. This report was prepared by Leo

S. Laroza and Judith C. Valencia, with special tabulations by Joanne Evangelista.

#


SWS SPECIAL REPORT



Chart 1

Chart 2

Second Quarter 2018 Social Weather Report June 27-30, 2018 National Survey

31

30

30

6 3

EXTENT OF BELIEF THAT THE U.S WILL DEFEND THE

PHILIPPINES IN CASE OF INVASION BY ANOTHER COUNTRY:

TOTAL PH, JUN 2018

Strongly

believe

Somewhat believe

Undecided

Strongly not believe

Somewhat not believe

61% Believe

9%

Not believe

* Net figures (%Believe minus % Not Believe ) are correctly rounded. Figures may not add up due to rounding error.

Q131. Gaano po kayo NANINIWALA O HINDI NANINIWALA na ipagtatanggol ng Estados Unidos ang Pilipinas kapag

sinalakay tayo ng ibang bansa? Masasabi po ba ninyo na kayo ay… (SHOWCARD)) (LUBOS NA NANINIWALA, MEDYO

NANINIWALA, HINDI TIYAK KUNG NANINIWALA O HINDI, MEDYO HINDI NANINIWALA, LUBOS NA HINDI NANINIWALA )

Net* +52

% o

f ad

ult

s


AWARENESS OF THE MUTUAL DEFENSE TREATY BETWEEN

PHILIPPINES AND THE U.S.: TOTAL PH, JUN 2018

Note: No Answer (0.1%) responses are not shown.

Intro: Ang Mutual Defense Treaty sa pagitan ng Pilipinas at Estados Unidos ay pinirmahan noong Agosto 30, 1951, sa

Washington, D.C. ng mga kinatawan ng Pilipinas at Estados Unidos. Sinasabi ng pangkalahatang kasunduan na

ipagtatanggol ng Estados Unidos ang Pilipinas kapag ito ay sinalakay ng ibang bansa, at ipagtatanggol din ng Pilipinas

ang Estados Unidos kapag ito ay sinalakay.

Q130. Dati na po ba ninyong alam ang kasunduang ito sa pagitan ng Pilipinas at Estados Unidos, o ngayon lamang ninyo

ito narinig? (DATI NANG ALAM O NGAYON LAMANG NARINIG )

47

53Heard about the

MDT only now

Previously aware

of the MDT

% o

f ad

ult

s


SWS SPECIAL REPORT



Chart 3

Chart 4


17

48

31

28

32

30

43

15

30

7

4

6

5

1

3

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


PHILIPPINES IN CASE OF INVASION BY ANOTHER COUNTRY,

BY AWARENESS OF THE PH-US MUTUAL DEFENSE TREATY:

TOTAL PH, JUN 2018 (Row %)

% of adults

+52

+74

+ 33

Believe UndecidedNot

Believe Net*

Among

those

who are…

Total PH

Previously aware of the MDT

Aware of the MDT just now






38

55

31

41

53

58

47

62

44

69

59

47

42

53

Rural

Urban

Mindanao

Visayas

Balance Luzon

NCR

Philippines

AWARENESS OF THE MUTUAL DEFENSE TREATY

BETWEEN PHILIPPINES AND THE U.S.:

BY AREA AND LOCALE, JUN 2018 (Row %)

Heard about the

MDT only now

Previously aware

of the MDT

Total PH

Metro Manila

Balance Luzon

Visayas

Mindanao

Urban

Rural

Note: Blank spaces are No Answer responses. Figures may not add up due to rounding error.



% of adults


SWS SPECIAL REPORT



Chart 5

Chart 6


34

49

51

47

66

51

49

53

E

D

ABC

Philippines



BY CLASS, JUN 2018 (Row %)

Total PHTotal PH

ABC

D

E

Heard about the

MDT only now

Previously aware

of the MDT




% of adults


67

51

42

27

47

33

49

58

73

53



BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, JUN 2018 (Row %)

Total PH

None/Some Elem

Elem grad/Some HS

HS Grad/Some Voc/Voc/Some Col

College Grad/Post

Heard about the

MDT only now

Previously aware

of the MDT




% of adults


SWS SPECIAL REPORT



Chart 7

Chart 8


56

66

48

54

70

64

61

35

25

42

30

26

25

30

9

9

10

16

4

11

9

Rural

Urban

Mindanao

Visayas

Balance…

NCR

Total PH



BY AREA AND LOCALE, JUN 2018 (Row %)


Believe Net*

+52

+53

+66

+37

+38

+57

+47

Total PH

Metro Manila

Balance Luzon

Visayas

Mindanao

Urban

Rural

* Net figures (%Believe minus % Not Believe ) are correctly rounded. No Answer responses are not shown. Figures may not

add up due to rounding error.




% of adults


60

61

65

61

30

30

31

30

11

9

4

9

E

D

ABC

Total PH



BY CLASS, JUN 2018 (Row %)

% o

f a

du

lts

+52

+62

+52

+49


Believe Net*

Total PH

ABC

D

E

* Net figures (% Believe minus % Not Believe ) are correctly rounded. Figures may not add up due to rounding error.




% of adults


SWS SPECIAL REPORT



Chart 9

Chart 10


69

61

63

53

61

23

32

29

35

30

8

8

9

13

9

College Grad/ Post

HS Grad/ Some Voc/ Voc/Some College

Elem Grad/Some HS

None/Some Elem

Total PH



BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, JUN 2018 (Row %)

+52

+ 40

+ 54

+ 53

+ 61


Believe Net*

* Net figures (% Believe minus % Not Believe ) are correctly rounded. Figures may not add up due to rounding error.




% of adults


AWARENESS OF THE PH-US MUTUAL DEFENSE TREATY:

BY AWARENESS OF THE PH-CHINA DISPUTE IN THE WEST

PHILIPPINE SEA, JUN 2018 (Row %)

% of adults




14

54

47

86

46

53

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Among

those

who are…

Total PH

Previously aware of the PH-

China dispute

Aware of the PH-China dispute

just now

Heard about the

MDT only now

Previously aware

of the MDT


SWS SPECIAL REPORT



Chart 11

Chart 12


AWARENESS OF THE PH-US MUTUAL DEFENSE TREATY:

BY KNOWLEDGE OF THE PH-CHINA DISPUTE IN THE WEST


% of adults

36

49

57

73

47

64

51

43

27

53

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Among those

with… knowledge

of the PH-China

dispute in the

WPS

Total PH

Extensive

Heard about the

MDT only now

Previously aware

of the MDT

Adequate

Only a little

Very little





15

35

31

21

32

30

52

25

30

6

6

6

6

2

3

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100



BY AWARENESS OF THE PH-CHINA DISPUTE IN THE WEST


% of adults

+52

+59

+ 24


Believe Net*





Among

those

who are…

Total PH

Previously aware of the PH-

China dispute

Aware of the PH-China dispute

just now


SWS SPECIAL REPORT



Chart 13




BY KNOWLEDGE OF THE PH-CHINA DISPUTE IN THE WEST


% of adults

14

28

38

60

31

25

35

32

22

30

41

30

21

11

30

14

5

6

5

6

5

1

3

2

3

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Among those

with… knowledge

of the PH-China

dispute in the

WPS


Believe Net*

+52

+75

+61

+58

+20

Total PH

Extensive

Adequate

Only a little

Very little

* Net figures (%Believe minus % Not Believe ) are correctly rounded. No Answer responses are not shown. Figures may not

add up due to rounding error.

Documents

Second Quarter 2018 Social Weather Survey Special Report ... - SWR 2018-II... · Intro : Ang Mutual Defense Treaty sa pagitan ng Pilipinas at Estados Unidos ay pinirmahan noong Agosto