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Seasonal Climate Outlook for Summer 2013 over DPRK. Pong-Chol Choe, Chol-Min Kim Central Meteorological Forecasting Center, SHMA, DPR Korea. Contents. 1. Recent Climate Features 2. ENSO Monitoring & Prediction 3. Dynamic & Statistical Predictions. 1. Recent Climate Features. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Pong-Chol Choe, Chol-Min KimPong-Chol Choe, Chol-Min Kim
Central Meteorological Central Meteorological Forecasting Center, SHMA, DPR Forecasting Center, SHMA, DPR
Korea Korea
ContentsContents1. Recent Climate Features
2. ENSO Monitoring & Prediction
3. Dynamic & Statistical Predictions
1. Recent Climate Features1. Recent Climate Features
Variation of TemperatureVariation of Temperature in Summer(JJA) in Summer(JJA)
Variation of Precipitation Variation of Precipitation in Summer(JJA)in Summer(JJA)
Mean temperature 21.7℃(+0.4℃)Jun. 19.5℃(+0.8℃)Jul. 22.4℃(+0.2℃)Aug. 23.1℃(+0.8℃)
Precipitation 757.6 ㎜ (136 % )Western part 754~1081 ㎜ (129~185 % )Eastern part 365~951 ㎜ (71~185 % )Northern Inland region 447~925 ㎜
(97~202 % )
The State of Climate in Summer 2012 (JJA)The State of Climate in Summer 2012 (JJA)
Mean temperature -8.1℃(-2.3℃)Dec. -9℃(-3.9℃) Jan. -9.2℃(-1.1℃)Feb. -6.2℃(-1.7℃)
Precipitation 55.3 ㎜ (+13.1 ㎜ ) Dec. 22.5 ㎜ (+6.7 ㎜ )Jan. 12.9 ㎜ (+0.3 ㎜ ) Feb. 19.9 ㎜ (+6.2 ㎜ )
The State of Climate in Winter 2013 (DJF)The State of Climate in Winter 2013 (DJF)
2. ENSO Monitoring & 2. ENSO Monitoring & PredictionPrediction
Recent ENSO ConditionRecent ENSO ConditionTropical Pacific SSTA FEB 2013
Equator Temperature Anomaly Profile FEB 2013
-0.6℃
Mean SSTA in Niño3.4 area
Time-Longitude SSTA (5N-5S)
ENSO Prediction of CMFCENSO Prediction of CMFC
Pacific SSTA prediction by analogue method
for summer(JJA)(1977, 1994)
6-month prediction of Niño 3.4 index by statistical methods
Niño 3.4 index: near or above normal
But significance :relatively low
3. Dynamic & Statistical 3. Dynamic & Statistical PredictionsPredictions
Dynamic Prediction Dynamic Prediction by CAM3.0by CAM3.0
JJA 500 hPa mean and anomalyJJA 500 hPa mean and anomaly
Interpreting the model ∘ Temperature: near normalTemperature: near normal
∘ Precipitation: below Precipitation: below
or near normal or near normal
∘ Meridional circulation : strengthened in middle latitude of East Asia ∘ Okhotsk high : stronger∘ West Pacific Subtropical High : weaker than normal
500hPa Height Prediction & Anomaly by Seasonal Variation in Atmospheric Circulation
Composition years : 1973, 1980, 1992, 2005, 2011
Temperature: near NormalTemperature: near Normal
Precipitation: below Precipitation: below
or near or near
normalnormal
Physical and Physical and Statistical Prediction Statistical Prediction
Abnormal Precipitation and Temperature Abnormal Precipitation and Temperature Predicted by MPI and Niño 3.4 IndexPredicted by MPI and Niño 3.4 Index
for Summerfor Summer
SummarySummary
1. 1. Seasonal climate outlook for summer 2013 over DPRKSeasonal climate outlook for summer 2013 over DPRK
Temperature : Near normal Temperature : Near normal
Precipitation : Below or near normalPrecipitation : Below or near normal
Cooling summer over the eastern coast area will be Cooling summer over the eastern coast area will be appearedappeared
2. 2. Monsoon activity: Monsoon activity: Near Near normal normal
3. Okhotsk high will be stronger and West Pacfic 3. Okhotsk high will be stronger and West Pacfic Subtropical High weaker than normalSubtropical High weaker than normal