Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment to Support Planning … · 2019-09-11 · Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment to Support Planning along Cape Hatteras National Seashore,

Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment to Support Planning alongCape Hatteras National Seashore, NC

Presented February 8th, 2017Coastal GeoTools | Charleston, SC

Michael Flynn¹, CFM and Dr. Tom Allen²

¹East Carolina University

²Old Dominion University

© Steve Earley

Presentation Objectives:1. Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment Methodology2. Visualize Storm Surge + SLR Inundation Results3. Mitigation and Engagement Strategies


Source: http://www.meylercapital.com/2015/03/alternatives-and-the-marketing-hour-glass/

© Roger Bansemer

Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment

Methodology• Sea Level Rise Inundation• Historical Shoreline Change• Storm Surge Vulnerability

© Roger Bansemer

Sea Level Rise Inundation

Present Day

http://coast.noaa.gov/slr/

SLR +1ft (30.48cm)


SLR +2ft (60.96cm)


SLR +3ft (91.44cm)


Storm Surge Vulnerability

© Jay Wickens

Mapping Storm Surge Inundation

• Data Set• QL2 LidAR obtained from NC Emergency Management Spatial Data

Download • Northern OBX collected 1/27/14 – 3/21/14• Southern OBX collected 1/6/14 – 3/21/14• Leica ALS70 sensor• 2 pts/m²• 9.25 cm RMSEz• 18.13 cm Fundamental Vertical Accuracy

• Method• Downloaded 184 tiles and unzipped to folder

• NAD83 NC State Plane US FT• Create LAS Dataset (Data Management)• LAS Dataset to Raster

• Ran multiple iterations with various interpolation types and cell sizes• Computational time is consideration

• DEM• LAS Dataset to Raster

• Interpolation Type• Binning

• Average• Natural Neighbor

• Cell Size• 5 ft = 1.5 m

• Extract by Mask• Edited NHDArea.shp

• Project Raster• NAD83 State Plane NC FT to

NAD83 UTM Zone 18N M



• SLOSH Display Program• Pamlico Sound (2012)

ht3• MOMs at high tide

• Category 1• Category 2• Category 3• Category 4• Category 5


• NOAA Coastal Inundation Surge Zone Mapping Summary

1. Maximum (worst case) water surface grids are extracted into a GIS format for each storm category.

2. The DEM is subtracted from water elevation grid using GIS Spatial Analysis tools.

3. The output grid is converted to a polygon to represent the extent of storm surge inundation.


• NOAA Coastal Inundation Surge Zone Summary of Steps1. Reproject SLOSH output data

• WGS84 UTM 18N FT to NAD83 UTM 18N M2. Convert SLOSH polygons to points

• Add column to convert SLOSH water level values in FT to M• Add column to add SLR scenarios to SLOSH Values

3. Interpolate SLOSH data• Spline

4. Subtract the DEM from the inundation surface• Raster Calculator: DEM – SLOSH Water Level Grid

5. Create an inundation extent polygon• Raster Calculator: calculation <= 0• Convert Raster to Polygon



SLOSH Polygon SLOSH Points Spline Interpolation Raster Calculation Inundation Polygon

ScenariosGlobal Mean Sea Level Rise (Parris et al. 2012)

• Intermediate-High (Vermeer and Rahmstorf 2009; Horton et al. 2008)

• Intermediate-Low (IPCC AR4 using B1)

• *NC Sea Level Rise Risk Management Study (2015)

140cm

100cm

70cm

40cm20cm

Under moderate acceleration, sea level includingVertical land movement could rise from a low estimate of 12cm to high of 25cm by 2045 at Oregon Inlet*

Mapping Storm Surge Inundation Extent



Identifying Vulnerability of Coastal Landmarks• Create centroids of building footprints• Extract values to points• Determine distance between FFE and

inundation depth using field calculator

Storm Surge + SLR InundationResults

© Jay Wickens

Identifying Vulnerability of Coastal Landmarks: Present Day

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

C1 C2 C3 C4 C5

Inundation by Category Storm Event

Not Flooded Slight Moderate Severe

Identifying Vulnerability of Coastal Landmarks: Present Day (sorted by FFE)

Landmark FFE (m) LAG (m) HAG (m) DEM (m) FFE - c1 (m) FFE - c2 (m) FEE - c3 (m) FFE - c4 (m) FFE - c5 (m)

HI HS Hatteras Weather Bureau Flag House: Shed 2 1.34 0.48 0.60 0.80 -0.18 -0.90 -1.42 -1.66 -1.79

HI HS Hatteras Weather Bureau Shed 1 1.54 0.62 0.81 0.74 0.03 -0.69 -1.21 -1.45 -1.59

BI HS Bodie Island Lighthouse 1.58 0.64 0.85 0.78 -0.03 -1.03 -1.72 -2.16 -2.67

OI HS Ocracoke Lighthouse 1.76 0.94 1.02 1.39 1.76 -0.06 -0.39 -0.78 -1.48

BI HS LH Store House 1.77 0.92 1.04 0.87 0.16 -0.84 -1.52 -1.96 -2.46

OI HS Keepers Quarters 1.79 0.62 1.06 0.94 0.49 -0.03 -0.36 -0.76 -1.46

HI HS Little Kinnakeet Kitchen 1.83 0.85 1.10 1.25 0.18 -0.88 -1.78 -2.24 -2.54

OI HS Tool House 1.86 0.90 1.13 1.03 0.57 0.05 -0.28 -0.68 -1.38

HI HS Little Kinnakeet Boathouse 1.92 0.88 1.19 1.50 0.27 -0.78 -1.68 -2.14 -2.44

BI HS Keepers Quarters (Visitor Center) 2.00 0.81 1.26 0.94 0.39 -0.61 -1.30 -1.74 -2.25

BI HS Life Saving Station; Ranger Station 2.19 1.18 1.46 1.67 0.50 -0.54 -1.14 -1.51 -1.90

BI HS Coast Guard Station (Hilton) 2.59 1.17 1.86 1.68 0.90 -0.14 -0.73 -1.10 -1.48

HI HS Hatteras Weather Bureau 2.61 0.60 0.82 0.90 1.10 0.37 -0.15 -0.38 -0.52

HI HS CAHA Lighthouse Oilhouse 3.42 2.58 2.69 2.92 3.42 0.53 0.29 -0.03 -0.39

HI HS CAHA Principal Keepers Quarters 3.43 2.48 3.22 2.86 3.43 0.53 0.30 -0.02 -0.38

HI HS Coast Guard Station; Ranger Station 3.64 2.43 2.51 2.67 3.64 0.70 0.50 0.20 -0.14

HI HS CAHA Double Keepers Quarters 3.68 2.49 3.16 3.15 3.68 0.77 0.54 0.23 -0.13

HI HS Coast Guard Equipment Shed; Fire Cache 3.76 2.28 3.48 2.43 3.76 0.82 0.62 0.31 -0.02

HI HS Little Kinnakeet Main House 4.65 1.36 1.59 1.48 3.00 1.95 1.05 0.59 0.29

HI HS CAHA Lighthouse 5.05 2.85 3.15 3.09 5.05 5.05 1.92 1.59 1.23

HI HS CCC Cabin 321 7.52 6.54 6.79 6.70 7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52

HI HS CCC Cabin 322 9.00 8.01 8.27 8.16 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00

HI HS CCC Cabin 323 9.32 8.08 8.59 8.26 9.32 9.32 9.32 9.32 9.32

HI HS CCC Cabin 324 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Identifying Vulnerability of Coastal Landmarks:Present Day (sorted by Cat 1)




HI HS Hatteras Weather Bureau Shed 1 1.54 0.62 0.81 0.74 0.03 -0.69 -1.21 -1.45 -1.59

BI HS LH Store House 1.77 0.92 1.04 0.87 0.16 -0.84 -1.52 -1.96 -2.46

HI HS Little Kinnakeet Kitchen 1.83 0.85 1.10 1.25 0.18 -0.88 -1.78 -2.24 -2.54





OI HS Tool House 1.86 0.90 1.13 1.03 0.57 0.05 -0.28 -0.68 -1.38











HI HS CCC Cabin 321 7.52 6.54 6.79 6.70 7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52

HI HS CCC Cabin 322 9.00 8.01 8.27 8.16 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00

HI HS CCC Cabin 323 9.32 8.08 8.59 8.26 9.32 9.32 9.32 9.32 9.32

HI HS CCC Cabin 324 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Identifying Vulnerability of Coastal Landmarks:Present Day + 20cm SLR (sorted by Cat 1)




HI HS Hatteras Weather Bureau Shed 1 1.54 0.62 0.81 0.74 -0.17 -0.89 -1.41 -1.65 -1.79

BI HS LH Store House 1.77 0.92 1.04 0.87 -0.04 -1.04 -1.72 -2.16 -2.66

HI HS Little Kinnakeet Kitchen 1.83 0.85 1.10 1.25 -0.02 -1.08 -1.98 -2.44 -2.74





OI HS Tool House 1.86 0.90 1.13 1.03 0.37 -0.15 -0.48 -0.88 -1.58











HI HS CCC Cabin 321 7.52 6.54 6.79 6.70 7.32 7.32 7.32 7.32 7.32

HI HS CCC Cabin 322 9.00 8.01 8.27 8.16 8.80 8.80 8.80 8.80 8.80

HI HS CCC Cabin 323 9.32 8.08 8.59 8.26 9.12 9.12 9.12 9.12 9.12

HI HS CCC Cabin 324 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00








HI HS Little Kinnakeet Boathouse 1.92 0.88 1.19 1.50 -0.13 -1.18 -2.08 -2.54 -2.84

BI HS Keepers Quarters (Visitor Center) 2.00 0.81 1.26 0.94 -0.01 -1.01 -1.70 -2.14 -2.65



OI HS Tool House 1.86 0.90 1.13 1.03 0.17 -0.35 -0.68 -1.08 -1.78


HI HS Hatteras Weather Bureau 2.61 0.60 0.82 0.90 0.70 -0.03 -0.55 -0.78 -0.92


HI HS Little Kinnakeet Main House 4.65 1.36 1.59 1.48 2.60 1.55 0.65 0.19 -0.11

HI HS CAHA Lighthouse Oilhouse 3.42 2.58 2.69 2.92 3.02 0.13 -0.11 -0.43 -0.79

HI HS CAHA Principal Keepers Quarters 3.43 2.48 3.22 2.86 3.03 0.13 -0.10 -0.42 -0.78

HI HS Coast Guard Station; Ranger Station 3.64 2.43 2.51 2.67 3.24 0.30 0.10 -0.20 -0.54

HI HS CAHA Double Keepers Quarters 3.68 2.49 3.16 3.15 3.28 0.37 0.14 -0.17 -0.53

HI HS Coast Guard Equipment Shed; Fire Cache 3.76 2.28 3.48 2.43 3.36 0.42 0.22 -0.09 -0.42


HI HS CCC Cabin 321 7.52 6.54 6.79 6.70 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12

HI HS CCC Cabin 322 9.00 8.01 8.27 8.16 8.60 8.60 8.60 8.60 8.60

HI HS CCC Cabin 323 9.32 8.08 8.59 8.26 8.92 8.92 8.92 8.92 8.92

HI HS CCC Cabin 324 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00










OI HS Keepers Quarters 1.79 0.62 1.06 0.94 -0.21 -0.73 -1.06 -1.46 -2.16

BI HS Life Saving Station; Ranger Station 2.19 1.18 1.46 1.67 -0.20 -1.24 -1.84 -2.21 -2.60

OI HS Tool House 1.86 0.90 1.13 1.03 -0.13 -0.65 -0.98 -1.38 -2.08




HI HS Little Kinnakeet Main House 4.65 1.36 1.59 1.48 2.30 1.25 0.35 -0.11 -0.41

HI HS CAHA Lighthouse Oilhouse 3.42 2.58 2.69 2.92 2.72 -0.17 -0.41 -0.73 -1.09

HI HS CAHA Principal Keepers Quarters 3.43 2.48 3.22 2.86 2.73 -0.17 -0.40 -0.72 -1.08

HI HS Coast Guard Station; Ranger Station 3.64 2.43 2.51 2.67 2.94 0.00 -0.20 -0.50 -0.84

HI HS CAHA Double Keepers Quarters 3.68 2.49 3.16 3.15 2.98 0.07 -0.16 -0.47 -0.83

HI HS Coast Guard Equipment Shed; Fire Cache 3.76 2.28 3.48 2.43 3.06 0.12 -0.08 -0.39 -0.72


HI HS CCC Cabin 321 7.52 6.54 6.79 6.70 6.82 6.82 6.82 6.82 6.82

HI HS CCC Cabin 322 9.00 8.01 8.27 8.16 8.30 8.30 8.30 8.30 8.30

HI HS CCC Cabin 323 9.32 8.08 8.59 8.26 8.62 8.62 8.62 8.62 8.62

HI HS CCC Cabin 324 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00












OI HS Tool House 1.86 0.90 1.13 1.03 -0.43 -0.95 -1.28 -1.68 -2.38

BI HS Coast Guard Station (Hilton) 2.59 1.17 1.86 1.68 -0.10 -1.14 -1.73 -2.10 -2.48



HI HS Little Kinnakeet Main House 4.65 1.36 1.59 1.48 2.00 0.95 0.05 -0.41 -0.71



HI HS Coast Guard Station; Ranger Station 3.64 2.43 2.51 2.67 2.64 -0.30 -0.50 -0.80 -1.14

HI HS CAHA Double Keepers Quarters 3.68 2.49 3.16 3.15 2.68 -0.23 -0.46 -0.77 -1.13

HI HS Coast Guard Equipment Shed; Fire Cache 3.76 2.28 3.48 2.43 2.76 -0.18 -0.38 -0.69 -1.02


HI HS CCC Cabin 321 7.52 6.54 6.79 6.70 6.52 6.52 6.52 6.52 6.52

HI HS CCC Cabin 322 9.00 8.01 8.27 8.16 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00

HI HS CCC Cabin 323 9.32 8.08 8.59 8.26 8.32 8.32 8.32 8.32 8.32

HI HS CCC Cabin 324 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00












OI HS Tool House 1.86 0.90 1.13 1.03 -0.83 -1.35 -1.68 -2.08 -2.78

BI HS Coast Guard Station (Hilton) 2.59 1.17 1.86 1.68 -0.50 -1.54 -2.13 -2.50 -2.88

HI HS Hatteras Weather Bureau 2.61 0.60 0.82 0.90 -0.30 -1.03 -1.55 -1.78 -1.92


HI HS Little Kinnakeet Main House 4.65 1.36 1.59 1.48 1.60 0.55 -0.35 -0.81 -1.11



HI HS Coast Guard Station; Ranger Station 3.64 2.43 2.51 2.67 2.24 -0.70 -0.90 -1.20 -1.54

HI HS CAHA Double Keepers Quarters 3.68 2.49 3.16 3.15 2.28 -0.63 -0.86 -1.17 -1.53

HI HS Coast Guard Equipment Shed; Fire Cache 3.76 2.28 3.48 2.43 2.36 -0.58 -0.78 -1.09 -1.42

HI HS CAHA Lighthouse 5.05 2.85 3.15 3.09 3.65 3.65 0.52 0.19 -0.17

HI HS CCC Cabin 321 7.52 6.54 6.79 6.70 6.12 6.12 6.12 6.12 6.12

HI HS CCC Cabin 322 9.00 8.01 8.27 8.16 7.60 7.60 7.60 7.60 7.60

HI HS CCC Cabin 323 9.32 8.08 8.59 8.26 7.92 7.92 7.92 7.92 7.92

HI HS CCC Cabin 324 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Source: http://www.meylercapital.com/2015/03/alternatives-and-the-marketing-hour-glass/

Prioritized Districts1. Hatteras Weather Bureau

• Elevate sheds first, then conduct feasibility study to elevate Weather Bureau2. Little Kinnakeet

• Elevate kitchen and boathouse3. Bodie Island

• Light Station• Conduct engineering study to evaluate feasibility of mitigation options

• Elevate• Construct earthen dike• Relocate

• Ranger Station and Coast Guard Station• Elevate Ranger Station then Coast Guard Station

4. Ocracoke Light Station• Elevate vulnerable structures

5. Cape Hatteras Light Station, Ranger Station, and CCC Cabins• No Action

Mitigation and Adaptation: Storm Surge + SLR

NPS SLR Scenario (cm)

Projection at Oregon InletNC Coastal Resources

Commission Science Panel (2009-2010)

Tide Gauge Projections

(NOAA 2014)

IPCC RCP 2.6 + VLM (Church et

al. 2013)


al. 2013)

1 m by 2100 = 11.76 mm/yr

4.3" in 30 years = 3.56 mm/yr

6.3" in 30 years = 5.33 mm/yr

7.3" in 30 years = 6.10 mm/yr

Time to Achieve NPS SLR Scenario (years)20 17 56 38 3340 34 112 75 6670 60 197 131 115

100 85 281 188 164140 119 393 263 230

Years in to the Future

Projection at Oregon InletNC Coastal Resources

Commission Science Panel (2009-2010)

Tide Gauge Projections

(NOAA 2014)


al. 2013)


al. 2013)

1 m by 2100 = 11.76 mm/yr

4.3" in 30 years = 3.56 mm/yr

6.3" in 30 years = 5.33 mm/yr

7.3" in 30 years = 6.10 mm/yr

Amount of SLR (cm) per scenario5 6 2 3 3

10 12 4 5 615 18 5 8 920 24 7 11 1225 29 9 13 1530 35 11 16 18

Advocating for Resilient Coastal Communities

• Engage with the community• Hurricane Preparedness Week

• Opportunity for annual outreach• Build and strengthen partnerships• Review vulnerability and

showcase/prioritize mitigation efforts

• Promote Mitigation ROI

Strive for consistency with existing public products!Work on matching color and

category schemes with NWS NHC Storm Surge Inundation graphic

Compare FFE – BFE to FFE – SLOSH outputs

Reanalyze using Hurricane Matthew Coastal Change Analysis DEM


Presented February 8th, 2017Coastal GeoTools | Charleston, SC

Michael Flynn, [email protected]

@RippleEnviroCoastal Resources Management PhD Student

East Carolina University

Historical Shoreline Change

• Shorelines• 1946 (NOAA T-sheets 1:10,000 HWL max σx = 10.8m)

• 1980 (NOAA T-sheets 1:10,000 HWL max σx = 5.1m)

• 1997 (USGS LiDAR 20m spacing MHW max σx = 1.5m)

• 1998 (NCDCM aerial photography HWL)

• 2004 (NCDCM aerial photography HWL)

• 2009 (NCDCM NAIP HWL 1:2,400 max σx = 4.0m)

• Method• USGS Digital Shoreline Analysis System

(DSAS)• Linear Regression Rate

• Results• Shoreline movement +/- 2 m/yr



CategoryShoreline Change Rates

(m/yr)Percent

Highly Erosional < -2 22Moderately Erosional -2 to -1 22

Relatively Stable -1 to 1 48Moderately Accreting 1 to 2 5

Highly Accreting > 2 4

Site LRR Mean(m/yr)

LRR Std. Dev. (m/yr)

NSM (m)

EPR Mean (m/yr)

DOS(m)

DOS10yrs(m)

DOS25yrs(m)

DOS50yrs(m)

BI CG Site -2.88 0.08 -182.23 -3.01 288 259 216 144

BI Lighthouse -2.73 0.2 -165.84 -2.74 1136 1108 1067 999HI Little Kinnakeet

-0.86 0.12 -47.75 -0.75 487 478 465 444

HI Lighthouse -3.23 0.43 -207.94 -3.27 467 434 386 305

HI Ranger -3.69 0.11 -214.57 -3.38 820 783 728 636

HI CCC Cabins -3.23 0.43 -207.94 -3.27 896 864 815 735


Site LRR Mean(m/yr)


NSM (m)

EPR Mean (m/yr)

DOS(m)

DOS10yrs(m)

DOS25yrs(m)

DOS50yrs(m)

BI CG Site -2.88 0.08 -182.23 -3.01 288 259 216 144

BI Lighthouse -2.73 0.2 -165.84 -2.74 1136 1108 1067 999

Site LRR Mean(m/yr)


NSM (m)

EPR Mean (m/yr)

DOS(m)

DOS10yrs(m)

DOS25yrs(m)

DOS50yrs(m)

HI Little Kinnakeet -0.86 0.12 -47.75 -0.75 487 478 465 444

Site LRR Mean(m/yr)


NSM (m)

EPR Mean (m/yr)

DOS(m)

DOS10yrs(m)

DOS25yrs(m)

DOS50yrs(m)

HI Lighthouse -3.23 0.43 -207.94 -3.27 467 434 386 305

HI Ranger -3.69 0.11 -214.57 -3.38 820 783 728 636

HI CCC Cabins -3.23 0.43 -207.94 -3.27 896 864 815 735

Mitigation and Adaptation: Coastal Erosion

Historical Nourishment Future Nourishment• Buxton Canadian Hole “Hot

Spot”• NC 12 from Avon to Buxton

feasibility study was completed in December 2015

• Hatteras Village “Hot Spot”• NC 12 Hatteras Village

feasibility study was completed in February 2016

• Ocracoke Island “Hot Spot”• Feasibility study has not yet

been initiated• Back-passing?

Location Episodes Total Volume (cu. m)Pea Island 16 5,923,697Rodanthe 2 2,538,323Buxton 3 1,385,374Hatteras 7 678,773Ocracoke Island 5 394,558Total 33 10,920,724

Documents

Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment to Support Planning … · 2019-09-11 · Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment to Support Planning along Cape Hatteras National Seashore,