Sea Level Rise and Human Displacement

Anjelica Petsch

GEOG 422W

April 15, 2017

Sea level rise is just one effect of climate change, and if the worst projections occur it

could cause 10% of the world’s population1 to become homeless and/or relocated inland away

from the coast. “There are no boundaries to the effects of climate change,” [Minister Sopoaga]

told Australia’s ABC News, “We are dealing with saving human lives – and therefore saving

Tuvalu is also saving the world.”2 Tuvalu is a small nation comprised of reef islands and atolls

halfway between Hawaii and Australia and have already seen the effects of climate change in the

form of rising sea levels. Sea water has been encroaching on the country and with higher salinity

levels strains native crop production as well as limits already limited drinking water provided by

rainfall. Coconut milk is designated as the next alternative, but it must be shared among the less

than 10,000 people of the country.3

Having lived in neighboring New Zealand since 2007, a Tuvalu family finally received

residency after their claims that returning to native Tuvalu would suffer from sea level rise as

well as illness caused from water both polluted and high in salinity were approved by

Immigration and Protection Tribunal. To this day, the Tribunal does not recognize victims of

climate change to be refugees, which today only include persons that have been force to flee his

or her country due to persecution, war, or violence 4; and Vernon Rive, an environmental lawyer,

said to be approved by Tribunal with residency “requires exceptional circumstances of a

1 Danny Clemens, “Climate Change by the Numbers: 760 million Displaced by Rising Sea

Levels”, Discovery, Nov. 10, 2015, http://www.discovery.com/dscovrd/nature/climate-change-

by-the-numbers-760-million-displaced-by-rising-sea-levels/. 2 Greg Harman, “Has the great climate change migration already begun?”, The Guardian, Sep.

15, 2014, https://www.theguardian.com/vital-signs/2014/sep/15/climate-change-refugees-un-

storms-natural-disasters-sea-levels-environment. 3 “Tuvalu-Population”, CountryEconomy.com, last updated 2015,

http://countryeconomy.com/demography/population/tuvalu. 4 “What is a refugee”, USA for UNHCR, Accessed Apr. 23, 2017,

http://www.unrefugees.org/what-is-a-refugee/.

humanitarian nature”5, such as war and famine. A combination of both climate change and sea

level rise add a new aspect to the humanitarian issue, human security. Happening in Bangladesh,

the seas are rising and temperatures increasing; this mix makes favorable conditions for stronger

and more frequent tropical cyclones to hit. These storms would devastate food harvests,

livelihoods, and infrastructure, all of which are part of the country’s current plan to reduce

poverty6; all challenging the country’s Human Security, which is explained by the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) saying, “[Human Security] is inclusive of

political, sociocultural, and economic rights, rather than legal rights, which are instrumental to its

achievement.”7

In contrast to the impoverish nations, like Tuvalu and Bangladesh, rich nations in Europe

have been trailblazing mitigation and preparation techniques for sea level rise and other climate

change outcomes. The European Union agreed to use 20% of the €960 billion (1018.90 billion

USD) budget for years 2014 through 2020 to decrease impacts of climate change through

adaption projects, which are proposed by each country participating in the EU. Examples of

these mitigation projects include Norfolk Broads, UK strengthening and modernizing 175

5 Amy Maas, “Tuvalu climate change family win NZ residency appeal”, New Zealand Herald,

Aug. 3, 2014, http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11303331. 6 Robert Bisset, “Warming Climate to Hit Bangladesh Hard with Sea Level Rise, More Floods

and Cyclones, World Banks Reports”, The World Bank, June 19, 2013,

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/06/19/warming-climate-to-hit-

bangladesh-hard-with-sea-level-rise-more-floods-and-cyclones-world-bank-report-says. 7 Adger,W.N., J.M. Pulhin, J. Barnett, G.D. Dabelko, G.K. Hovelsrud, M. Levy, Ú. Oswald

Spring, and C.H. Vogel, 2014: Human security. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation,

and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the

Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R.

Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O.

Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and

L.L.White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York,

NY, USA, pp. 755-791, https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-

Chap12_FINAL.pdf.

kilometers (108.74 miles) of embankments in order to protect infrastructure and investments,

Nijmengen, The Netherlands creating a new channel to alleviate stress within the bottleneck of

the Waal River that previously evacuated a quarter of a million people in 1993-1995 due to

flooding, and the introduction of wetlands along the Danube River within Bulgaria, Moldova,

Romania, and Ukraine.8

Figure 1- 10 of the best Climate Change mitigation proposals throughout Europe funded by 20% of available budget for yeas 2014-2020 to reduce damage by rising sea levels and other climate effects. (Science Report article)

Back in 1990, the world’s foremost scientists of the IPCC worked together to create a

United Nations sponsored research text on climate change detailing causes by climate change

"could initiate large migrations of people, leading over a number of years to severe disruptions of

settlement patterns and social instability in some areas"; this prediction could not have been

more true as more experts focused on climate change and population displacement conducted

8 Andy Coghlan, “Europe blazes trail against climate change”, Science Report, Mar 4, 2015,

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22530113-700-europe-blazes-trail-against-climate-

change/.

research in 2016 and resulted in land degradation and desertification alone could forcefully

relocate tens of millions of people from their homes within the decade. The U.N. Security

Council determines whether climate-related displacement presents a genuine threat to peace, and

can create plans to cope with large-scale refugee concerns. It has been compared that the

"displacement of populations and destruction of cultural language and tradition is equivalent in

our minds to genocide," by Tony de Brum the then foreign minister of the Marshall Islands in

2015; this idea by de Brum could stand true as throngs of people relocate to new countries

forcing them to culturally assimilate.9

Climate Change experts state largely populated coastal regions in America are most

important in regards of sea level rise, and cities such as Miami and New Orleans could be easily

overtaken by storm water, but as well as cause damage to buildings and road structures for those

that live miles inland. This ripple effect by storm surge and human displacement was seen back

in 2005 when Hurricane Katrina evacuated nearly 400,000 residents, equaling about the entire

population of the city of New Orleans. Residents sought refuge in a mixture of cities, but mainly

areas that family members lived in or cities FEMA officials were able to send evacuees to during

the height of the storm. A month after the storm destroyed New Orleans and other Gulf Coast

cities, 1.36 million FEMA aid applications were submitted by former residents for assistance;

these applications were received throughout the country by applicants that were currently living

in homes about a third of the size of their Gulf Coast homes. The map created by FEMA also

depicted the economic impact on just about all cities and states in America after Katrina refugees

left New Orleans and other Gulf Coast cities by preference or bus. The proportional map helps

9 Eric Holthaus, “Rising tide of migration accompanies sea level rise, as predicted”, Phys.org,

May 2, 2016, https://phys.org/news/2016-05-tide-migration-accompanies-sea.html.

explain that Gulf Coast cities that were limitedly impacted by the hurricane’s storm surge were

greatly challenged by an influx in population that came with very little money for housing or

food. Of the homes, inhabitants from both New Orleans and coastal areas of Texas ended up

living in were rental properties that resided in highly impoverish and segregated communities

due to the fact that many evacuees were living off of extremely low income.

During the first year after Hurricane Katrina hit, different demographics from New

Orleans ranged with their resiliency to move back to their previous neighborhood and pick up

where their lives left off; for example, 67% non-black residents were more likely to return home

to 43% black to be exact due to the lack of affordable rental properties available to the black

citizens. New Orleans contained four major public housing complexes that were deteriorating

prior to the destruction of the levees by Katrina; however, after federal aid came to the area in

2006, city officials decided to demolish and rebuild new mixed-income housing in their places

and after research through FEMA registry, the housing managers were able to fill the majority of

Figure 2 Hurricane Katrina Diaspora map detailing locations of where FEMA aid applications were filed in order to receive

storm assistance. (Atlantic CityLab)

the new complex by former residents of the area.10 The rest of the population displaced by

Hurricane Katrina that did not move back home where between those that found stable income

elsewhere and those that could not afford the new housing erected over the demolished

apartments.

Climate change and sea level rise are evident in the days to come and it can be seen that

wealthier nations and cities have higher levels of resilience to disasters, especially caused by sea

level rise. With climate change and sea level rise in mind wealthy cities and countries will focus

on constructing long lasting infrastructure that combat changes in future climates and higher sea

levels. Compared to the country wide impact Hurricane Katrina had on just about all 50 states,

2012’s Hurricane Sandy that barreled over the Northeast, cities in the region, for instance New

York’s Economic District, were able to recover quicker than other cities effected due to their

wealth.11 Without proper sea level rise mitigation, population landscapes will change as

“habitable lands [becomes] inhabitable water”. More at risk coastal areas will see movement of

citizens both out of state as well as to higher elevated cities and counties within its own state

boundaries, therefore leaving all 50 states impacted by sea level rise. For example, the most

impacted state by the predicted 1.8m sea level rise is Florida, and the state could see 2.5 million

of its citizens seeking refuge in the other 49 states; however, implicating infrastructure across the

10 Laura Bliss, “10 Years Later, There’s So Much We Don’t Know About Where Katrina

Survivors Ended Up”, Atlantic CityLab, Aug 15, 2015,

http://www.citylab.com/politics/2015/08/10-years-later-theres-still-a-lot-we-dont-know-about-

where-katrina-survivors-ended-up/401216/. 11 Justin Worland, “Here’s Where to Buy a House in the U.S. That Will Be Resilient to Climate

Change”, Time, Jul 21, 2015, http://time.com/3964807/climate-change-resilience/.

nation to combat rising sea levels could still leave millions of people migrating, still a decrease

compared to the effect and costs of doing nothing.12

Figure 3 Circular bi-lateral flow chart for the United States under the 1.8m sea level rise prediction. Where the tick marks for

each states count for both the inflow and outflow, in thousands, of citizens. The states are ordered by inflow and the top 10 states

with the most outflow are displayed in color. Inflow numbers are shown first while going clockwise, and outflow second.

(Matthew E. Hauer, “Migration induced by sea-level rise could reshape the US population”)

12 Matthew E. Hauer, “Migration induced by sea-level rise could reshape the US population”,

Nature Climate Change, Apr 17, 2017,

https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3271.html.

Today, cities in a similar boat as Norfolk, Virginia are planning for the future and how

the city and its people can live along rising sea levels. Norfolk, in November 2016, released its

Norfolk Vision 2100 to share its research for designing new urban centers, enhancing economic

assets, and mapping areas vulnerable to rising water in the years to come with the idea of

updating neighborhoods throughout the city.

Figure 4 Norfolk Vision 2100 map that separated the city into regions for urban center development, areas with high economic assessets, and

maintaining or improving neighborhoods as rising sea levels. (Norfolk.gov)

Norfolk states on the cover of the document as “THE coastal community of the future” due to the

fact that the city is heavily impacted by changes in military planning and spending. Through the

year 2100, the city’s population is estimated to grow and the infrastructure today is aging

quickly. In the purple areas on the Vision 2100 map are plans to create neighborhoods with a

lower-risk to sea level rise.13 The idea is to improve established areas with infrastructure

susceptible, however, the city must be careful to limit possible gentrification in order to maintain

native persons and not drive them out with higher housing assessments and costs.

Norfolk, Virginia and the Galveston Bay region of Texas are similarly impacted by rising

sea levels as well as subsidence from over pumping of groundwater. For Norfolk, city planning

must decide what is or isn’t important in order to protect its precious economic jewels, the

military base, the shipyard, and the Virginia port; where in the Galveston Bay is concerned for

the area’s human footprint and its associated economic activity within the region. Galveston

Bay’s area at risk makes up for around 18% of Texas’s employment and population. Although

not all of the region’s population is at risk for direct sea level rise nor does the percentage seems

high in the grand scale of Texas; however the impact on the local government and county

surrounding the Galveston Bay are impacted through adjustments to changing coastal

populations and economic fluctuations.14

Areas being overtaken by rising sea levels see a migration in coastal environments into

more urban and human built up sections of the city. As wetland barriers between infrastructure

and water migrate landward, cause nuisance flooding thus resulting in flood insurance rising like

the seas. The research surrounding sea level rise in the Galveston Bay region of Texas was based

off of Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) HAZUS, which is an assessment tool

to predict potential loss caused by floods, hurricane winds, and earthquakes; the researchers were

13 “Norfolk Vision 2100”, Norfolk.gov, Nov. 22, 2016,

http://www.norfolk.gov/DocumentCenter/View/27768. 14 David W. Yoskowitz, Ph.D, James Gilbeaut, Ph.D, and Ali Mckenzie, “The Socio-Economic

Impact of Sea Level Rise in the Galveston Bay Region”, Environmental Defense Fund, June

2009, https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/9901_EDF_Sea_Level_Rise_Report.pdf.

then able to calculate in the scenario for under a 0.69m rise in sea level would displace 78% of

the current households for the area, and 93% for the 1.5m scenario. Already, with a potential of

either 78% or 93% of the population from the Galveston Bay region being evacuated under

choice or forcefully could cause economic instability as monetary and medical resources are

stretched thin.15

For areas like Tuvalu and other small island nations in the Pacific, rising seas are

devastating to their entire nations and cultures forcing citizens to seek refuge in neighboring

countries; however, in areas like Norfolk, Virginia and the Galveston Bay region of Texas that

are impacted by sea level rise can see a range of resilience. In documents like the “Norfolk

Vision 2100” that documented plans to combat sea level rise within 84 years through better

infrastructure that can withstand increased flooding and storm surges and in research similar to

“The Socio-Economic Impact of Sea Level Rise in the Galveston Bay Region” also shows how

nearby cities are indirectly impacted as well as homes and people are displaced from sea level

rise must seek shelter and resources outside of their hometown. The socio-economic impact can

be overlooked when talking about sea level rise and how can coastal regions mitigate the effects;

however, the total cost of a storm surge from Hurricanes, like Katrina, or risings seas expands

into economies that were not effected physically by floods and winds. The strain of human

displacement caused by sea level rise on an economy challenges available resources, such as

housing, food supply, and human security.

15 Ibid

Bibliography

W.N. Adger, J.M. Pulhin, J. Barnett, G.D. Dabelko, G.K. Hovelsrud, M. Levy, Ú. Oswald

Spring, and C.H. Vogel, 2014: Human security. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts,

Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of

Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea,

T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel,

A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L.White (eds.)]. Cambridge

University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 755-791,

https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap12_FINAL.pdf.

Robert Bisset, “Warming Climate to Hit Bangladesh Hard with Sea Level Rise, More Floods and

Cyclones, World Banks Reports”, The World Bank, June 19, 2013,

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/06/19/warming-climate-to-hit-

bangladesh-hard-with-sea-level-rise-more-floods-and-cyclones-world-bank-report-says.

Laura Bliss, “10 Years Later, There’s So Much We Don’t Know About Where Katrina Survivors

Ended Up”, Atlantic CityLab, Aug 15, 2015, http://www.citylab.com/politics/2015/08/10-

years-later-theres-still-a-lot-we-dont-know-about-where-katrina-survivors-ended-

up/401216/.

Danny Clemens, “Climate Change by the Numbers: 760 million Displaced by Rising Sea

Levels”, Discovery, Nov. 10, 2015, http://www.discovery.com/dscovrd/nature/climate-

change-by-the-numbers-760-million-displaced-by-rising-sea-levels/.

Andy Coghlan, “Europe blazes trail against climate change”, Science Report, Mar 4, 2015,

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22530113-700-europe-blazes-trail-against-

climate-change/.

Matthew E. Hauer, “Migration induced by sea-level rise could reshape the US population”,

Nature Climate Change, Apr 17, 2017,

https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3271.html.

Eric Holthaus, “Rising tide of migration accompanies sea level rise, as predicted”, Phys.org,

May 2, 2016, https://phys.org/news/2016-05-tide-migration-accompanies-sea.html.

Greg Harman, “Has the great climate change migration already begun?”, The Guardian, Sep. 15,

2014, https://www.theguardian.com/vital-signs/2014/sep/15/climate-change-refugees-un-

storms-natural-disasters-sea-levels-environment.

Amy Maas, “Tuvalu climate change family win NZ residency appeal”, New Zealand Herald,

Aug. 3, 2014,

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11303331.

“Norfolk Vision 2100”, Norfolk.gov, Nov. 22, 2016,

http://www.norfolk.gov/DocumentCenter/View/27768.

“Tuvalu-Population”, CountryEconomy.com, last updated 2015,

http://countryeconomy.com/demography/population/tuvalu.

“What is a refugee”, USA for UNHCR, Accessed Apr. 23, 2017,

http://www.unrefugees.org/what-is-a-refugee/.

Justin Worland, “Here’s Where to Buy a House in the U.S. That Will Be Resilient to Climate

Change”, Time, Jul 21, 2015, http://time.com/3964807/climate-change-resilience/.

David W. Yoskowitz, Ph.D, James Gilbeaut, Ph.D, and Ali Mckenzie, “The Socio-Economic

Impact of Sea Level Rise in the Galveston Bay Region”, Environmental Defense Fund,

June 2009,

https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/9901_EDF_Sea_Level_Rise_Report.pdf.